# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

What Compliance Risks Lie Behind Trip.com's Overseas Version's USDT Payment?

Trip.com's overseas platform has introduced USDT payment, allowing users to book flights and hotels using the stablecoin. While this offers benefits like potential discounts from exchange rate differences and bypassing traditional cross-border payment fees and limits, it also carries significant compliance risks under Chinese regulations. For personal use, if the USDT comes from legal sources (e.g., mining or legitimate exchange purchases), occasional small transactions may not be criminally prosecuted but could still violate foreign exchange rules. A major risk is unknowingly using "black USDT" linked to illegal activities like fraud, which could lead to frozen bank accounts and lengthy legal investigations. Helping others book travel for profit, however, constitutes illegal business activity under Chinese law. Repeated or large-scale operations may lead to charges like illegal business operations or money laundering, especially if the USDT sources are suspicious. To stay compliant, users should ensure payment, booking, and user identities match exactly, retain proof of legitimate fund sources, and avoid profiting from exchange rate arbitrage. Engaging in "U booking" services for others is strongly discouraged due to high criminal liabilities. Ultimately, while USDT payments offer convenience, users must prioritize legal compliance to avoid severe financial and legal consequences.

深潮12/30 02:33

What Compliance Risks Lie Behind Trip.com's Overseas Version's USDT Payment?

深潮12/30 02:33

What Does $150 Billion in Annual Derivatives Liquidations Mean for the Market?

According to CoinGlass data, forced liquidations in the cryptocurrency derivatives market reached $150 billion in 2025. While seemingly alarming, this reflects a structural norm in a market where derivatives dominate price discovery. Liquidations act as a periodic cost of leverage, occurring against a backdrop of $85.7 trillion in annual derivatives trading volume. Record-high open interest, crowded long positions, and high leverage—particularly in altcoins—combined with a global risk-off sentiment triggered a major market reversal in October, resulting in over $19 billion in liquidations within days, mostly from long positions. The core issue lies in risk amplification mechanisms: while routine liquidations are absorbed by insurance funds, Automatic Deleveraging (ADL) mechanisms can exacerbate selling during extreme volatility, especially hurting neutral strategies and smaller assets. High exchange dominance (the top four control 62% of derivatives trading) intensified the contagion risk, as synchronized de-risking and similar liquidation logic led to concentrated sell-offs. Infrastructure strain on bridges and fiat channels further hampered arbitrage and liquidity. The $150 billion in yearly liquidations signifies not systemic chaos but the cost of risk transfer. While no default cascades occurred in 2025, the event highlighted structural vulnerabilities of exchange concentration, high leverage, and certain mechanisms—underscoring the need for more robust systems and rational trading practices to prevent future crises.

marsbit12/29 23:16

What Does $150 Billion in Annual Derivatives Liquidations Mean for the Market?

marsbit12/29 23:16

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

On December 5th, seven Chinese industry associations, including the Internet Finance Association and the Banking Association, jointly issued a "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currencies." This follows a meeting on November 28th where thirteen government ministries and commissions discussed cracking down on virtual currency speculation. The document signals a tightening regulatory environment, causing concern among entrepreneurs planning Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization projects in mainland China. The core of RWA involves digitizing and tokenizing offline assets using blockchain technology for secondary market trading and financing. However, under China's current regulatory framework, any tokenization activity linked to public trading challenges the red lines established in the September 24, 2021 notice. The recent Risk Warning reinforces these strict prohibitions. The document explicitly states that no RWA activities have been approved by financial regulators in mainland China. Key legal obstacles include: 1. The定性 (qualification) of such activities as illegal fundraising and unauthorized securities offerings. 2. A complete ban on financial institutions and payment platforms providing settlement or promotional services for these businesses. 3. The non-legal status of stablecoins involved in RWA, which touches upon monetary sovereignty. Conducting RWA business in mainland China thus carries significant legal risks, including potential criminal penalties. This stringent stance is seen as a preventative measure to avoid systemic financial risks, akin to the previous P2P lending crisis. While the domestic market is effectively closed, opportunities may exist in offshore markets like Hong Kong and Singapore. The associations' warning also notes that overseas service providers offering services within China is illegal. However, purely offshore operations—where the underlying assets, funding, servers, and compliant entities are all outside mainland China and do not involve RMB outflow—might not be explicitly forbidden. This creates a potential "outlet" for assets to connect with international markets in a compliant manner. Theoretically, a path exists for Chinese companies to use an ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) structure to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and tokenize assets like factory or mineral rights in Hong Kong. However, in practice, this is extremely challenging due to complex cross-border asset verification rules, strict scrutiny over foreign exchange and capital repatriation (which could be deemed illegal fundraising), and legal risks for individuals within China managing overseas crypto businesses. The current period is one of heightened regulatory scrutiny and unified opposition from multiple ministries. The prevailing advice, even in Hong Kong, is to pause and wait. Existing projects are advised to heed "window guidance," either stopping operations or completely transitioning to a full offshore model. In conclusion, RWA was never truly viable in mainland China under the current rules. The recent notices simply reinforce existing red lines. The real opportunity for ambitious Chinese companies lies in complex, fully offshore operations that meticulously navigate legal compliance, foreign exchange management, and international private placement rules—completely severed from mainland RMB, retail investors, and domestic promotional channels. The paramount advice is longevity over speed; legal red lines are not to be tested. The current silence may precede future standardization. Those planning offshore RWA ventures are advised to seek professional legal consultation for compliance and structuring.

marsbit12/29 11:36

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

marsbit12/29 11:36

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

Summary: On December 5th, seven Chinese industry associations, following a prior inter-ministerial meeting, issued a "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currencies." This article analyzes the implications for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization in mainland China. The core conclusion is that RWA projects are effectively prohibited within mainland China. The warning explicitly states that no RWA activities are approved by financial regulators. Key legal obstacles include: 1) classification as illegal fundraising or unauthorized securities issuance, 2) a complete ban on support from financial institutions and payment platforms, and 3) the non-legal status of related stablecoins, which touches on monetary sovereignty. Operating such projects domestically carries significant legal risks, including potential criminal penalties. However, the article identifies a potential path for offshore operations. While the warning also states that overseas service providers targeting mainland customers is illegal, purely offshore businesses (with assets, capital, servers, and entities all outside China, and no involvement of RMB) might be feasible, particularly in jurisdictions like Hong Kong or Singapore. This is framed as a strategic "release valve" connecting China's internal economy with external cycles. Theoretically, using an ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) structure to transfer asset rights to an offshore SPV for tokenization is possible. But in practice, this faces major hurdles: complex cross-border asset verification (often viewed as capital flight), strict scrutiny and potential blockage of fund repatriation, and legal risks for individuals within China managing the business. The current environment is a high-pressure period. The pragmatic advice is to avoid any domestic operations, including targeting Chinese residents or using RMB. For existing projects, the best strategy is to pause or fully transition to a complete offshore model. The emphasis is on longevity over speed, advising thorough legal compliance and structure design for any overseas RWA ventures.

深潮12/29 11:33

Thirteen Ministries and Seven Associations Issue Document to Prevent Virtual Currency Risks, Where is the Path for RWA?

深潮12/29 11:33

The Full Story of USDe's Depegging on October 11: A $19 Billion Lesson in Crypto Financial Engineering

On October 11, 2025, USDe, a major yield-bearing stablecoin (YBS), depegged on Binance, triggering a cascade of liquidations and resulting in a record-breaking $19 billion liquidation event in crypto history. While mainstream media termed it a "crypto crash," the incident was fundamentally a massive exposure of tail risks in complex financial engineering. USDe, created by Ethena, is a synthetic dollar protocol that maintains delta-neutral positions by hedging spot assets with perpetual futures contracts, capturing returns from funding rates, staking yields, and basis trades. At its peak, USDe reached a $14 billion market cap, offering APYs as high as 27%, and was touted as an "Internet Bond." However, a significant portion of its growth was driven by leveraged lending on external platforms. Binance’s launch of a 12% APY incentive program encouraged users to employ recursive lending with up to 5x leverage, using Binance’s own USDe/USDT pair as the sole price oracle. This created $8.4 billion in highly leveraged exposure outside Ethena’s core delta-neutral system. The collapse began when Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, causing a sharp market downturn. As crypto assets fell, perpetual funding rates turned negative. Large USDe holders sold on Binance, driving its price down. Once it fell below $0.82, it triggered mass liquidations of leveraged positions. In just 23 minutes, USDe plummeted to $0.65 on Binance due to cascading liquidations and liquidity failure. In contrast, on-chain DEXs like Uniswap saw only a brief 2% depeg, and DeFi lending protocols like Aave experienced minimal liquidations due to robust oracle mechanisms. Ethena’s core protocol remained solvent and operational throughout, indicating the failure was specific to Binance’s market structure. The event underscores critical lessons: the dangers of excessive leverage, reliance on single-point price oracles, and the misperception of complex yield products as risk-free savings. It highlights that stability in crypto depends on robust mechanisms, deep liquidity, and sustained confidence—not just financial engineering.

marsbit12/29 09:07

The Full Story of USDe's Depegging on October 11: A $19 Billion Lesson in Crypto Financial Engineering

marsbit12/29 09:07

Bitcoin is About to Choose a Direction, How to Respond Flexibly | Invited Analysis

Bitcoin is approaching a critical directional decision after an extended period of consolidation. Since reaching its all-time high of $126,200 in October, BTC has been in a confirmed medium-term downtrend, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 36% over 82 days. Technical indicators suggest the market is in an oversold area, and a directional breakout is imminent. Last week’s price action validated the analyst’s core view of wide-range oscillation between key levels. Two short-term trades were executed within the defined resistance zone of $89,500–$91,000, yielding a total return of 3.62%. The current analysis suggests that, in the absence of sudden news, a likely scenario involves a final downward move breaking the $80,000 psychological support to flush out remaining long positions before a potential reversal and technical rebound. This week (Dec 29–Jan 4), the market is expected to test the $86,000–$86,500 support region. A break below could lead to a decline toward $83,500–$84,500, while holding may extend the current consolidation. Two short-term trading plans are proposed based on whether this support holds or breaks, using 30% position sizing with strict stop-loss and trailing stop protocols. Key macro events this week include the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and US jobless claims data, which may influence medium-term interest rate expectations and market liquidity sentiment.

marsbit12/29 05:39

Bitcoin is About to Choose a Direction, How to Respond Flexibly | Invited Analysis

marsbit12/29 05:39

活动图片