According to on-chain data monitored by Dune Analytics, Kaito is currently in a highly sensitive liquidity window. A large number of staked tokens have entered the unstaking cooldown queue and may be concentrated into the secondary market in the short term. Combined with subsequent unlocking events, the project may face sustained selling pressure.
I. Unstaking Risk "Quantified": Nearly One-Third of Staked Tokens Are Exiting
According to the Dune dashboard data:
Approximately 8M KAITO are currently in the unstaking cooldown queue.
The remaining total staked amount of the project is about 23.97M.
This means that nearly 33% of the staked tokens have begun the exit process and will be released to the market in a short time.
This proportion is uncommon in similar staking model projects and is usually regarded as a "systemic liquidity warning signal."
II. Concentrated Release Within 48 Hours: Short-Term Liquidity Pressure Highly Concentrated
Further analysis of the unstaking timeline reveals that this round of unstaking is not naturally dispersed but highly concentrated.
Dune data shows:
January 22: Approximately 4.85M KAITO unlocked and available for withdrawal.
January 23: Approximately 2.1M KAITO will be unlocked.
Total within 48 hours: Approximately 8M KAITO potentially entering the circulating market.
Meanwhile, unstaking applications were mainly concentrated between January 18 and 21, with daily application counts maintained at 50–70, showing clear characteristics of collective withdrawal.
This behavior pattern is closer to "risk-averse exit" rather than normal position rotation.
III. Potential Chain Reaction: 23M Staked Tokens May Face "Stampede Unstaking"
It is worth noting that the current release of 8M KAITO is not the entire risk.
Under the staking mechanism, once the secondary market price is under pressure, the remaining 23.97M
KAITO stakers are highly likely to passively follow with unstaking, forming a typical negative feedback loop:
Unstaked tokens enter the market — secondary price declines under selling pressure — more stakers choose to stop loss and unstake — selling pressure further amplifies.
This structural risk often does not fully manifest in the first wave of release but accelerates after a significant price pullback.
IV. Time Is Not on the Side of the Bulls: Unlocking Pressure on February 20 Is Already on the Way
In addition to short-term unstaking risks, Kaito also faces a clear mid-term variable.
According to the token unlock schedule:
February 20 will see the first unlock of team and investor tokens, with approximately 33.09M KAITO unlocked, accounting for about 3.31% of the maximum supply. At the current price, this is worth about $13.62 million.
This means that even if there is a technical rebound after short-term market pressure, unlocking selling pressure will continue, with no clear "pressure vacuum period".
V. Fundamental Trigger: Business Model Hindered, Accelerating Confidence Erosion
From a fundamental perspective, this round of unstaking is not an isolated event.
On January 15, Platform X announced a ban on all applications that use reward mechanisms to drive user posts, a policy widely interpreted by the market as a direct blow to Kaito's core business model.
Subsequently: The Kaito community announced the suspension of Yaps operations; The token price experienced a rapid drop of about 20%.
Conclusion: Selling Pressure Is Not a Matter of "If" but "When and at What Scale"
Considering the on-chain data, unstaking pace, future unlock events, and fundamental changes, Kaito is currently facing not a single event but a continuous cycle of liquidity pressure.
In the absence of new narratives or effective demand to absorb the supply, the market needs to be cautious of:
1. Price impact from short-term concentrated unstaking.
2. The叠加效应 (superimposed effect) of mid-term team and investor unlocks.
3. The risk of accelerated decline due to negative feedback between sentiment and price.
From a trading perspective, this is more like a process of selling pressure release over time, rather than a risk event that has already concluded.
