# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

When Funds Flow into Gold and Silver, Bitcoin Is Temporarily Left Behind

In 2025, precious metals surged dramatically, with silver rising parabolically to a record $72/oz and gold reaching $4524.30/oz, up 143% and 70% annually, respectively. In contrast, Bitcoin fell 8% year-to-date and dropped 30% from its October peak. This divergence challenges the "digital gold" narrative, as traditional safe-haven drivers—such as a weaker dollar, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks—failed to boost Bitcoin. Investors preferred tangible assets like gold and silver, which benefit from institutional credibility and, in silver’s case, robust industrial demand from sectors like solar and electronics. Bitcoin, lacking industrial utility and relying on speculative and financial demand, struggled as ETF flows turned negative. While Bitcoin’s potential remains tied to future regulatory clarity or unique features like censorship resistance, it has yet to be integrated into the hard asset ecosystem. The 2025 trend underscores that macroeconomic tailwinds do not automatically extend to cryptocurrencies.

比推12/26 05:16

When Funds Flow into Gold and Silver, Bitcoin Is Temporarily Left Behind

比推12/26 05:16

The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probabilities

The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probability Most traders fail not due to a lack of methods or information, but because they misunderstand the nature of trading. Mark Douglas, in "Trading in the Zone," redefines the market as a probabilistic environment where an edge only materializes over a sufficiently long period. Trading is not about prediction or seeking certainty; it is a numbers game of pattern recognition. A valid trading pattern does not guarantee that any single trade will be profitable. It merely indicates a historical probability of success. Each individual trade outcome is random, but the overall probability distribution over many trades is not. Traders must evaluate performance like a casino: focus on long-term expectation and repeated execution, not single wins or losses. Accepting that "anything can happen" is liberating. It removes the emotional sting from losses, enables disciplined stop-loss execution, and eliminates hesitation. The ideal "flow state" is not excitement but emotional neutrality—executing the plan without attachment to outcomes or need to be right. Ultimately, traders cannot control results, but they can control their execution. Success comes from emotional detachment and consistent repetition. When traders stop trying to prove themselves right and let the probabilities work over time, they align with the true nature of the market: a numbers game based on pattern recognition and disciplined repetition.

深潮12/26 02:45

The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probabilities

深潮12/26 02:45

The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probabilities

The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probabilities Most traders fail not due to a lack of methods or information, but because they misunderstand the nature of trading. Mark Douglas, in "Trading in the Zone," redefines trading: it is not about prediction or certainty, but a probabilistic environment where edges manifest only over time. Thus, experienced traders summarize it as a pattern-recognition numbers game. Trading isn’t forecasting; it’s executing a plan amid uncertainty. No single trade can be guaranteed. Patterns don’t predict outcomes—they only define probabilistic edges. A valid pattern means historically higher chance of profit, not a promised win. Losses don’t invalidate the method; they are part of randomness. Individual trade outcomes are random, but the overall probability distribution isn’t. Profit comes from expectancy multiplied by repetition, not single trade accuracy. Accepting "anything can happen" liberates traders: losses feel less offensive, stop-losses are executed cleanly, and emotional interference fades. The "flow state" is emotional neutrality—no need to prove correctness or fear mistakes. It’s loyalty to the process. Trading is a numbers game: identify edges, repeat executions, and let large samples reveal results. Many traders intellectually agree but emotionally reject this: they judge themselves per trade, expect every pattern to work, take losses personally, and abandon strategies after few failures. The key isn’t a better method, but correct execution. You can’t control outcomes, but you can control execution. Patterns offer probability, not promises. Consistency requires emotional detachment and repetitive discipline. When traders stop proving themselves right and let probabilities work, trading succeeds.

marsbit12/26 01:59

The Truth of Trading: A Numbers Game of Patterns and Probabilities

marsbit12/26 01:59

Average Crypto Trader Losses Reached $500 Million Per Day in 2025

According to a Coinglass report, the total volume of forced liquidations of margin-based trading positions on crypto exchanges neared $150 billion in 2025. The estimated average daily liquidation volume throughout the year ranged from $400 million to $500 million. A record-breaking single-day liquidation event occurred on October 11, accounting for nearly 15% of the annual total with nearly $20 billion in futures positions liquidated. This was triggered by US President Donald Trump's announcement of new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on critical software, which sparked fears of a new trade war and caused a sharp shift towards risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 10-15% at their peak, while many altcoins crashed by 80% or more. The crash exposed key market vulnerabilities, including reliance on opaque liquidation mechanisms, fragile infrastructure under peak load, and a lack of effective circuit breakers common on traditional exchanges. Unlike the Terra (LUNA) collapse in 2022, this event did not lead to a cascade of institutional investor defaults, as the risks were concentrated in specific strategies and assets rather than being systemic.

RBK-crypto12/25 12:20

Average Crypto Trader Losses Reached $500 Million Per Day in 2025

RBK-crypto12/25 12:20

DeFi Is No Longer 'Sexy'

DeFi is losing its "sense of exploration" as it matures. While infrastructure and execution have improved, the ecosystem has become highly optimized around a narrow set of behaviors—primarily trading, short-term leverage, and incentive-driven participation. Capital now expects yield as compensation for risk rather than as a return on genuine utility. Lending functions more like instant financing than credit, and user engagement is often "rented" through incentives rather than sustained by organic demand. This efficiency comes at a cost: DeFi feels less like an open frontier and more like a refined but closed loop serving the same sophisticated users. Trust has been eroded by years of exploits, making users cautious and less willing to engage with experimental protocols. The core promise of DeFi—permissionless access, composability, and global liquidity—remains valid. However, the system now prioritizes speed, optionality, and exit liquidity, which limits its ability to attract new types of users or support long-term behaviors. For DeFi to regain its relevance, it must encourage different rational behaviors—such as capital staying through cycles, genuine credit markets, and yield based on real demand—not just repeated efficiency gains. Otherwise, it risks remaining a powerful but niche system.

marsbit12/25 10:09

DeFi Is No Longer 'Sexy'

marsbit12/25 10:09

Bank of Russia: Crypto is now legal, but do not buy it unless…

Russia has shifted from attempting to ban cryptocurrency to legalizing it under a new regulatory framework set to be finalized by July 2026. The system categorizes investors into two groups: qualified investors, who can trade most cryptocurrencies after passing a risk test, and retail investors, who face a strict annual purchase limit of 300,000 rubles and mandatory knowledge assessments. The Central Bank of Russia continues to view crypto as high-risk and warns investors of potential losses. Existing financial institutions will be permitted to trade crypto under current licenses, while new rules will apply only to specialized crypto depositories. The move aims to develop the Digital Financial Asset (DFA) market and attract global investment, though unauthorized mining will face stricter penalties. The regulations reflect state caution toward public participation in crypto, while leveraging digital assets for strategic economic interests.

ambcrypto12/24 20:02

Bank of Russia: Crypto is now legal, but do not buy it unless…

ambcrypto12/24 20:02

Global liquidity hits $157T – But the crypto market remains cautious

Global liquidity has reached a record $157 trillion, yet the cryptocurrency market remains in a bearish phase with over $1.37 trillion in losses. Despite the abundance of capital, investors are adopting a cautious approach, prioritizing stability through assets like gold and stablecoins. While regulatory changes such as the eSLR adjustment could free up billions and potentially benefit risk assets like Bitcoin, the current Financial Stress Index suggests it is not an ideal time to accumulate crypto. A market rebound is possible but not imminent, as isolated capital has yet to significantly impact crypto valuations.

ambcrypto12/24 16:03

Global liquidity hits $157T – But the crypto market remains cautious

ambcrypto12/24 16:03

Video丨A Nation Bets on Bitcoin: A Masterstroke or a Blunder? Is This High-Stakes Gamble as Simple as It Seems?

The article titled "A Nation Bets Everything on Bitcoin: A Brilliant Move or a Grave Mistake? Is This High-Stakes Gamble as Simple as It Seems?" explores a country's unprecedented decision to adopt Bitcoin as a national strategy. It questions whether this move is an innovative policy or a reckless gamble, delving into the complexities and potential implications behind such a bold economic experiment. The piece includes an embedded video for further context, suggesting the situation involves significant financial, political, and technological dimensions beyond the surface-level debate.

marsbit12/24 10:11

Video丨A Nation Bets on Bitcoin: A Masterstroke or a Blunder? Is This High-Stakes Gamble as Simple as It Seems?

marsbit12/24 10:11

Avon Co-founder's Viral Article: Why Has DeFi Lost Its Charm?

The article "Why DeFi Has Lost Its Charm" by Avon co-founder Prince argues that DeFi is no longer perceived as innovative or exciting, despite continued development and maturation. The core issue is a shift in user psychology from curiosity to caution, and a convergence of user behavior around incentives rather than genuine utility. DeFi Summer represented a period of rapid innovation and market structure formation, but today's DeFi often feels like a repetition of established patterns with better execution. User behavior has become highly speculative and optimized around trading, leverage, and easy exits. This has shaped the ecosystem's expectations: participation is now something that requires monetary compensation, rather than being driven by a product's inherent usefulness. Lending in DeFi, for example, has evolved into short-term financing for positions like leverage and arbitrage, rather than functioning as a true credit market. Yield has become a baseline expectation for participation, justified by the numerous risks (smart contract, governance, oracle, bridge risks). This leads to a "rented" adoption—activity spikes during incentive programs but vanishes afterward, making it difficult to build sustainable, long-term projects. Trust has also been eroded by years of exploits, scams, and governance failures, making users more cautious and less willing to explore new projects. This risk aversion, combined with the high compensation demanded for risk, has compressed the space for experimentation. The author concludes that DeFi hasn't failed; it has successfully optimized for a specific set of behaviors (liquidity, speed, exit ease) but in doing so, has made it harder to expand into new use cases. For DeFi to regain its charm, it must create structures that make different user behaviors rational—where capital stays for reasons beyond incentives, and yield represents a responsible decision rather than a headline number. This would lead to quieter, slower, but more sustainable growth driven by genuine need.

Odaily星球日报12/24 09:51

Avon Co-founder's Viral Article: Why Has DeFi Lost Its Charm?

Odaily星球日报12/24 09:51

DeFi Has Not Collapsed, But Why Has It Lost Its Charm?

DeFi has not collapsed, but it is losing its sense of exploration and novelty. While the infrastructure has matured and execution has become more efficient, participation has become highly homogenized, centered around incentives, short-term financing, and speculative trading rather than genuine credit markets or long-term engagement. The ecosystem has optimized for behaviors favored by traders—liquidity, leverage, and quick exits—making yield less a reward for risk-taking and more an expected compensation for participation. This has led to capital that is highly mobile but discontinuous, often “rented” during incentive periods rather than sustainably engaged. Trust has also shifted from curiosity to caution due to past failures, making users more risk-averse and less likely to experiment. DeFi’s current form successfully serves a niche group but struggles to expand beyond its optimized behaviors. For DeFi to regain relevance, it must encourage new types of rational behavior—such as longer-term capital commitment, structured credit, and sustainable yield—rather than perpetuating the same incentive-driven patterns. This would require building systems that attract users through real utility rather than subsidies, even if growth is slower and less dramatic.

marsbit12/24 07:06

DeFi Has Not Collapsed, But Why Has It Lost Its Charm?

marsbit12/24 07:06

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