# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Why Bitcoin traders stay cautious despite global liquidity boom

Despite a significant expansion in global liquidity, with major economies like the U.S., China, Japan, and the Eurozone reaching record M2 money supply levels, Bitcoin (BTC) has not followed the expected upward trajectory and remains nearly 30% below its all-time high. Traders are exhibiting caution, and capital has not flowed aggressively into speculative markets like cryptocurrencies due to persistent uncertainty and tight financial conditions. Analytical tools such as the Energy Value Oscillator indicate that BTC is at levels comparable to a decade ago, often associated with long-term cycle bottoms rather than market tops. The current cycle has not yet entered the overheated "red zone" typical of past bull market peaks, suggesting that the market is still in a buildup phase. Overall, while liquidity conditions are favorable, risk assets including Bitcoin have not fully responded. The pressure continues to build, but the broader market movement remains pending. Derivatives market activity further confirms this hesitancy among traders.

ambcrypto12/29 04:03

Why Bitcoin traders stay cautious despite global liquidity boom

ambcrypto12/29 04:03

Cryptocurrency as a Christmas Gift? Investment Choices from a Gen Z Perspective

Cryptocurrency as a Christmas Gift? Gen Z's Investment Choices Despite market volatility, some Gen Z Americans remain open to receiving cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum as gifts during the holidays, though attitudes are nuanced. While 45% express excitement about crypto gifts according to a Visa report, many prefer stable, traditional investments like stocks or Roth IRA contributions for long-term goals. The article profiles young adults like Wyatt Johnson (22), who lost nearly half his Solana investment in 2021 but still values crypto's democratic potential. Others like Russell Kai (22) and Clay Lute (24) would accept crypto gifts but prioritize converting them to cash or traditional assets. Financial experts note crypto often serves as Gen Z's first investment, though they caution it should only comprise a small portion of a diversified portfolio. Cultural exposure through social media and perceived accessibility make crypto appealing, but economic pressures—including job market challenges and inflation—lead many toward more predictable investments. Despite Bitcoin's 35% drop from its October peak, some view the downturn as a buying opportunity, though most Gen Z investors emphasize stability amid economic uncertainty.

marsbit12/29 00:35

Cryptocurrency as a Christmas Gift? Investment Choices from a Gen Z Perspective

marsbit12/29 00:35

The Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System

The article "Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System" explains why retail traders often experience price movements against their positions after buying altcoins. It argues this is not due to market manipulation but is a result of automated market maker (MM) systems responding to inventory risk and toxic order flow. When traders place large buy orders, MMs sell inventory, creating a short exposure. To mitigate this risk, MMs adjust their pricing using the Avellaneda-Stoikov model. They skew quotes lower to attract sellers and widen spreads to reduce transaction probability, aiming to return inventory to a balanced state while protecting against adverse selection. The reservation price, central to this model, is calculated as the mid-price adjusted by inventory levels and risk aversion. The article notes that retail traders are particularly affected because their orders are often large, concentrated, and not hedged—especially in low-liquidity altcoins. A suggested strategy for traders is to break large orders into smaller, less detectable increments, allowing them to buy at progressively better prices as the MM’s quoting system reacts. The post teasers follow-up articles on order book dynamics and toxic flow.

marsbit12/28 04:18

The Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System

marsbit12/28 04:18

Cryptocurrency as a Christmas Gift? Gen Z is Reevaluating

The article explores Gen Z's cautious openness to receiving cryptocurrency as a holiday gift, despite recent market volatility. While some younger investors, especially those new to investing, view it as an exciting entry point into finance, many in their twenties who have experienced market downturns prefer more stable assets like stocks or contributions to savings. The piece highlights a generational divide: younger Z世代 members are more enthusiastic, while those with investment experience are wary. Though cultural factors and the allure of democratized finance play a role, economic pressures make stability a priority. Ultimately, while not a top gift choice, crypto is seen by some as a potential, though risky, opportunity.

marsbit12/27 08:56

Cryptocurrency as a Christmas Gift? Gen Z is Reevaluating

marsbit12/27 08:56

Ethereum – Few reasons why $2,796 is ETH’s make-or-break level

Despite the market-wide risk-on sentiment, capital remains heavily concentrated in Bitcoin, limiting altcoin momentum. However, Ethereum (ETH) is showing resilience, with its dominance bouncing from 11.5% to 13% as its price consolidates between $3k-$3.5k. A key reason for this stability is that Ethereum whales are actively defending their long-term cost basis of $2,796, a level the price has bounced off three times. These large holders have accumulated 4.8 million ETH since late November, driving their collective unrealized profits to approximately $4.8 billion. The primary risk is the high estimated leverage ratio (ELR) of 2.964, indicating significant borrowed exposure. With no major macro catalyst and weak rotational flows, this elevated leverage leaves ETH vulnerable to a potential liquidation cascade. The $2,796 level remains a critical make-or-break point for the asset.

ambcrypto12/27 05:04

Ethereum – Few reasons why $2,796 is ETH’s make-or-break level

ambcrypto12/27 05:04

Bitcoin Capital Continues to Exit: Why A Negative 7dMA Signals A High-Risk Regime

Bitcoin is struggling to regain market confidence as sentiment deteriorates and apathy dominates trading. Price remains below $90,000, with repeated recovery attempts failing. On-chain data reveals a negative seven-day moving average of net capital flow at approximately -$160 million, indicating more capital is exiting the network through loss-making sales than entering via profits. Despite weak conditions, Bitcoin supply activity remains elevated, with 31.79% of supply moving in the last 180 days. This high activity reflects distribution and stress rather than accumulation, as holders exit positions at unfavorable prices. For the trend to turn positive, net capital flows must recover alongside sustained activity.

bitcoinist12/27 03:08

Bitcoin Capital Continues to Exit: Why A Negative 7dMA Signals A High-Risk Regime

bitcoinist12/27 03:08

Matrixport Research: After Months of Caution, Bitcoin Enters a Phase of Structural Gameplay

Bitcoin has entered a new structural phase after months of cautious and range-bound trading, shifting from a one-sided downward trend to a more balanced risk-reward dynamic. Despite recent underperformance against other assets and continued low volatility, key indicators suggest a potential inflection point. The largest-ever Bitcoin options expiration on December 26, 2025, with $17.2 billion in call options and $6.2 billion in puts, is a critical event. While calls are concentrated above $100,000 (a level difficult to reach near-term), puts clustered around $85,000 may lead to intensified price action around that level. Post-expiration, market sentiment may begin improving as risk budgets reset, ETF flows potentially return, and institutional rebalancing occurs in January. Although 2026 may remain challenging for long-only strategies, tactical opportunities are emerging as the market transitions from “downside risk dominance” to a phase of “limited downside but catalysts still needed.”

Matrixport12/26 09:43

Matrixport Research: After Months of Caution, Bitcoin Enters a Phase of Structural Gameplay

Since mid-October, Bitcoin has been in a corrective phase with subdued market sentiment, though recent structural shifts suggest a transition from a one-sided downtrend to a more complex, range-bound consolidation. Key indicators from derivatives positioning, ETF flows, and technical analysis point to a market entering a new phase of structural博弈. Bitcoin has been trading within a $70,000–$100,000 range amid low implied volatility and reduced risk appetite. Factors such as tax-loss selling and cautious institutional behavior have contributed to the sideways movement, with limited upward catalysts and restrained risk asset momentum. A significant structural inflection point is approaching with the expiration of a record $17.2 billion in Bitcoin options on December 26, 2025. The concentration of put options near $85,000 may make that level a focal point for price action. Post-expiration, market dynamics may shift as risk budgets reset and potential ETF inflows return in January, offering room for sentiment improvement. While 2026 may remain challenging for long-only strategies, tactical opportunities are emerging as Bitcoin’s a period of underperformance relative to other assets. The options expiration event may serve as a catalyst for renewed positioning ahead of expected January inflows, marking a critical window for observing structural change and potential sentiment reversal.

marsbit12/26 09:37

Web3 Entrepreneurship in Mainland China: What Can and Cannot Be Done?

Summary: Under China's current legal and regulatory framework, Web3 entrepreneurship is possible but must avoid activities related to issuing tokens, speculative trading, fundraising, or operating exchanges. The article outlines four viable paths: 1. **Pure Technology & Infrastructure**: Developing blockchain as a distributed database or collaborative tool for enterprises and governments, focusing on data verification, supply chain coordination, and judicial record-keeping without financial incentives. 2. **De-Financialized Digital Assets**: Creating non-fungible tokens (NFTs) as digital collectibles, membership passes, or copyright certificates—emphasizing utility over investment value and avoiding secondary market trading. 3. **Compliance & Risk Management Services**: Providing legal, regulatory, and analytical support for Web3 projects, including anti-money laundering measures and chain monitoring, which are increasingly essential as regulations evolve. 4. **Overseas-Centric Operations with Domestic Support**: Structuring projects so that technical development, research, and backend services are handled in mainland China, while financial aspects (e.g., token issuance, trading) are managed by compliant entities abroad. The author stresses that success depends on treating Web3 as a tool rather than a financial instrument, avoiding public promotions of crypto investments, and ensuring clear legal boundaries to sustain long-term operations.

marsbit12/26 07:15

Web3 Entrepreneurship in Mainland China: What Can and Cannot Be Done?

marsbit12/26 07:15

Gold and Silver Repeatedly Hit New Highs, Why Has Bitcoin Fallen Instead of Rising?

In 2025, precious metals surged dramatically, with silver breaking above $50 and reaching a record high of $72/oz, gaining 143% annually, while gold hit $4,524.30/oz with a 70% yearly increase. In contrast, Bitcoin fell 8% year-to-date to $87,498, down 30% from its October peak of $126,000. This divergence challenges the "digital gold" narrative, as macro tailwinds driving metals—such as a weaker USD, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks—did not extend to cryptocurrencies. Investors preferred established safe havens like gold and silver, with central banks and retail buyers increasing physical holdings. Studies confirmed gold's stability during macro shocks, while Bitcoin behaved more as a high-beta risk asset, correlating with equities. Structural demand differences widened the gap: silver benefited from both safe-haven and industrial demand (e.g., solar panels, electronics), whereas Bitcoin lacks real-world utility and relies solely on financial speculation and on-chain settlements. Without industrial demand, Bitcoin depends on ETF inflows, which have recently turned negative. Silver's rally reflects macro pricing of low real rates and a weak dollar, underscoring Bitcoin's exclusion from the hard asset system. For Bitcoin to recover, clearer regulation, renewed institutional interest, or heightened appreciation of its censorship-resistant features may be needed. However, silver's crowded positioning poses indirect risks to Bitcoin if volatility spikes. The 2025 divergence shows Bitcoin has not yet achieved "hard asset" status. While it may outperform under specific conditions, it currently lacks the institutional trust and industrial utility that support precious metals.

marsbit12/26 05:57