"Buying the Dip" on 400,000 BTC: Is $74,000 a Rebound or a Reversal?

marsbitОпубликовано 2026-03-05Обновлено 2026-03-05

Введение

Cryptocurrency markets have seen a strong rebound, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $74,000 on March 5, marking a nearly 8% daily gain and reaching a one-month high. Ethereum also rose over 7% to around $2,100. Market sentiment has improved, with the fear index rising to 29, moving out of extreme fear territory. Key factors behind the rally include improved global risk appetite, driven by political events such as the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair and the U.S. Senate's rejection of a resolution limiting military action against Iran. These events boosted confidence in policy continuity and reduced geopolitical risks. Bitcoin spot ETFs have shown consistent large net inflows since late February, reversing previous outflows. Over $40,000 BTC was accumulated in the $60,000–$70,000 range during the recent correction, indicating strong buying interest. Long-term holder selling pressure has also eased, supporting price stability. Stablecoin market cap remains high at over $310 billion, with USDC and other stables showing growth, reflecting sustained liquidity and capital inflow into crypto. Analysts like Cathie Wood and Tom Lee suggest the market may be nearing a bottom, with improving fundamentals and reduced selling pressure. However, investors are advised to remain cautious while recognizing emerging opportunities.

The cryptocurrency market has recently welcomed a long-awaited strong rebound. On March 5th, the price of Bitcoin once broke through the $74,000 mark, with a near 8% gain in 24 hours, hitting a new one-month high. BTC is currently oscillating in the $72,000-$73,000 range, with overall market sentiment warming up. ETH rose to around $2,100, gaining over 7%, and some altcoins saw minor rebounds.

Regarding liquidation data, according to Coinglass, the total open interest across the network saw $595 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for $482 million. The market fear index has also finally moved out of the extreme fear zone, rising to 29.

Recently, the White House formally submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Senate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, and the US Senate rejected a war powers resolution limiting former President Trump's military actions against Iran. These two political events quickly boosted global risk appetite. The market widely believes that Warsh's nomination, as a renowned economist, significantly enhances the continuity of Fed policy and market-friendly expectations; the Senate vote result effectively alleviated concerns about an escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, avoiding the worst-case scenario.

Gold, as a safe-haven asset, performed remarkably, currently hovering around $5,150-$5,300 per ounce. US crypto-related stocks rose across the board: MSTR closed up 10.37%, COIN up 14.57%, and CRCL up 5.63%.

Furthermore, according to Bitget market data, Japanese and South Korean stock indices opened higher. South Korea's KOSPI index rose 565.69 points to 5654.72 points, a gain of 11.02%; Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 2319 points to 56564.54 points, a gain of 4.28%.

BTC Spot ETFs Have Seen Sustained Large Net Inflows Since Late February This Year

Data shows that prior to the end of 2025 and early February 2026, Bitcoin spot ETF data showed occasional large net inflows but more frequent large net outflows.

Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in early October last year, until February 20, 2026, the holdings of US Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced the largest reduction of this cycle, cumulatively decreasing by approximately 100,300 BTC.

However, this trend began to change starting February 20th, showing multiple instances of significant net inflows.

As of March 5th, there have been only 2 net outflows, and the values were not large, while the net inflows during this period included single-day large inflows of $458 million and $506 million.

With incoming funds beginning to warm up, the rise in BTC price is hardly surprising.

400,000 BTC Accumulated Between $60,000 and $70,000, Selling Pressure Easing

During the Bitcoin correction in February this year, according to Glassnode data, the market saw significant accumulation of筹码 (chips/positions) in the $60,000 to $70,000 range during the sharp pullback. Over 400,000 BTC were accumulated by investors, showing strong "buying the dip" behavior.

The supply of BTC in this price range has increased from approximately 997,000 on January 1st to about 1.43 million currently, an increase of about 429,000, or 43%. Currently, over 8% of the non-exchange circulating supply has a cost basis concentrated in this range, forming a dense holding band.

In addition, data charts from March 3rd show that after months of sustained net selling, the net position change of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is now tending to moderate.

This indicates that as the Bitcoin price stabilizes, the selling pressure from experienced holders is easing. Resistance on the BTC supply side remains, but the intensity of selling is weakening.

Stablecoin Market Cap Remains High, $1.737 Billion Increase in Past 7 Days

Stablecoin data remains one of the indicators for observing market funds.

According to DefiLlama data, its total market capitalization remains high at $310.848 billion. Over the past 7 days, USDT's total market cap increased by 0.03%, while USDC's reached 1.84%.

It is worth mentioning that over the past month, USDC's market cap increased by 8.6%, PYUSD by 16.7%, U by 29.04%, and USDG by 12.87%.

The high operation of stablecoins not only provides ample market liquidity but also signals the continuous entry of capital into the crypto ecosystem—trading volumes remain at the trillion-dollar level, acting as a bridge and accumulating potential energy for the next phase of growth for assets like Bitcoin. Although there hasn't been explosive growth, the stable supply itself reflects market maturity and restored confidence.

Michael Saylor continues to increase Bitcoin holdings through his company's unlimited buying strategy, with current holdings exceeding 720,000 BTC and an average cost of about $76,000. He has repeatedly stated publicly: "We are in a stage similar to Apple's early 'valley of despair.' Bitcoin, as digital property and digital credit, will outperform traditional assets."

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood pointed out in an outlook report in early February 2026 that Bitcoin's downward cycle may be nearing its end. "The key to achieving asset allocation diversification is introducing new assets with low correlation to existing assets, and Bitcoin fits this perfectly. Adding low-correlation assets can improve risk-adjusted returns in the long run. Therefore, Wood believes institutions are indeed taking cryptocurrencies seriously. Previously, they might have hesitated due to the 'four-year cycle' narrative. Whether a four-year cycle exists or not, the market did experience a significant decline and is now approaching what many technical analysts consider a potential low area. Near the bottom, markets typically experience sharp volatility. People often say afterwards: 'If only I had bought at that low.' The V-shaped rebound has been quite significant. Of course, this is not any form of promise, but it seems various factors are gradually aligning."

Tom Lee, Chairman of Ethereum treasury company BitMine, said in an interview with CNBC: "No one wants to see the US卷入 (get involved in) conflict. But it must be pointed out that the market's performance is much more resilient than expected. I don't think anyone can assert that we have bottomed now, but it looks like a bottom is being formed—bad news keeps coming, yet the market can digest it and remain stable. More importantly, I think positioning has been significantly reset. If you look back to last April, a simple signal was the VIX rising above 40. It reached 80 last time, but it might not go that high this time. Another signal is: if another panic-inducing news item emerges, gold continues to fall, but the stock market turns positive that day, it means the market has cleared. I think we are approaching that stage.

Tom Lee believes March is a period of bottom formation. The decline in software, Mag 7, and crypto assets is about 90% complete. They are starting to outperform the market, which is a sign of leadership. Even if global trade disruptions occur, you still need AI, and you still need the Mag 7. The fundamentals of these companies remain strong. Investors need to remain patient and cautious, keeping some cash on hand. But I believe opportunities are emerging.

Связанные с этим вопросы

QWhat key price level did Bitcoin reach recently, and what does the article suggest about whether this is a rebound or a reversal?

ABitcoin recently reached a key level of $74,000. The article presents evidence such as significant ETF inflows, large-scale accumulation ('copycat buying') of over 400,000 BTC in the $60k-$70k range, and reduced selling pressure from long-term holders, suggesting these are signs of a potential market reversal rather than just a short-term rebound.

QAccording to the data, how much BTC was accumulated in the $60,000 to $70,000 price range, and what does this indicate?

AOver 400,000 BTC was accumulated (or 'copycat bought') in the $60,000 to $70,000 price range. This indicates strong investor confidence and significant 'bottom-fishing' behavior, forming a dense cost basis band that could act as a support level and reduce selling pressure.

QWhat significant change occurred with Bitcoin Spot ETF flows starting around February 20th?

AStarting around February 20th, Bitcoin Spot ETF flows shifted from a pattern of frequent large net outflows to one of sustained and significant net inflows, including single-day net inflows of $458 million and $506 million. This reversal indicates renewed institutional and major investor interest.

QWhat is the current trend regarding the net position change of Long-Term Holders (LTHs), and what is its implication for the market?

AThe net position change of Long-Term Holders (LTHs), after months of persistent net selling, is now showing signs of easing. This implies that selling pressure from experienced investors is diminishing, which is a positive sign for market stability and a potential reduction in supply-side resistance.

QWhat does the high and growing stablecoin market capitalization, as cited in the article, signal for the crypto market?

AThe stablecoin market capitalization remaining high at over $310.8 billion, with a 7-day increase of $1.737 billion and significant monthly growth for specific stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD, signals ample market liquidity and sustained capital inflow into the crypto ecosystem. It acts as a 'bridge' and accumulates potential energy for the next phase of growth for assets like Bitcoin, reflecting market maturity and restored confidence.

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