# Artikel Terkait Yields

Pusat Berita HTX menyediakan artikel terbaru dan analisis mendalam mengenai "Yields", mencakup tren pasar, pembaruan proyek, perkembangan teknologi, dan kebijakan regulasi di industri kripto.

The Biggest Enemy of the AI Bull Market Is Not a Bubble, But the Bond Market?

The bond market is emerging as the most dangerous variable for the AI stock rally. US Bank's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warns that surging bond yields are tightening financial conditions beyond what corporate earnings can support. Key indicators include the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.2% (a high since 2007) and real yields reaching 3% (a peak since 2008). Hartnett argues this bond market stress could force the Fed to hike rates, which would be detrimental to equities. A critical risk signal would be if the bullish combination of "rising yields & rising bank stocks" flips to "rising yields & falling bank stocks," potentially triggering a broader de-risking in markets. Simultaneously, credit risk for hyperscale cloud companies has reached record highs, with Credit Default Swaps (CDS) at unprecedented levels. This reflects bond investors' growing skepticism about the return on investment from the massive AI capital expenditure boom. The core concern is: if debt markets refuse to fund the AI spending spree, where will the capital for expensive memory chips and potentially unprofitable frontier models come from? Hartnett frames the current dynamic as "FCI > EPS" – where tightening Financial Conditions outweigh the support from Earnings Per Share. He advises a defensive tilt: going long defensive stocks, high-dividend stocks, and long-duration bonds, while shorting bank stocks, brokers, tech, and industrials to hedge against a potential reversal of the "boom" narrative. From a macro perspective, the 2020s are characterized by supply-side constraints (labor, imports, oil) rather than demand, while bond and equity supply remains abundant due to persistent fiscal deficits and reduced corporate buybacks. In this environment, Hartnett sees gold and Bitcoin quietly forming a base in 2026.

marsbit07/27 11:32

The Biggest Enemy of the AI Bull Market Is Not a Bubble, But the Bond Market?

marsbit07/27 11:32

Unseen Since 2007, the US Treasury Market Is Sounding Alarms

US Treasury Market Sounds Alarm, Longest Streak Since 2007. The US Treasury market is facing its most severe stress test in nearly two decades. Yields have surged to multi-year highs, driven by a triple threat of escalating Middle East tensions, oil prices breaching $100 per barrel, and rekindled inflation fears. The 30-year yield, a key benchmark, has sustained a record-breaking streak above 5%, its longest since 2007, forcing a rapid reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The core of the turmoil is the persistent elevation of long-term yields. The 30-year Treasury yield has now remained above 5% for its longest consecutive period in 17 years, recently climbing to 5.19%. Analysts note this persistence, unlike previous selloffs, lacks a single catalyst and sees limited immediate buying interest. They attribute the stickiness to investors demanding higher compensation for enduring inflation risks, massive fiscal deficits, and expectations of increased long-duration bond supply. The immediate trigger was Brent crude oil surpassing $100, reigniting inflation concerns and sharply increasing market bets on future Fed rate hikes. Beyond oil, structural pressures are mounting. A soaring national debt, now nearing $40 trillion, faces diminished demand from traditional foreign buyers. Concurrently, massive AI-related bond issuance from tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon offers investors alternatives to long-dated Treasuries, further straining demand. The ripple effects are spreading. Rising yields have pushed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a near one-year high of 6.58%, pressuring the housing market. Equities are also feeling the strain, with major indices declining as higher borrowing costs threaten corporate profits and compress valuations for growth stocks, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Market participants warn that if long-end yields continue climbing uncontrollably, it could trigger broader financial instability, with some noting the potential return of "bond vigilantes" concerned over fiscal sustainability.

marsbit07/24 07:59

Unseen Since 2007, the US Treasury Market Is Sounding Alarms

marsbit07/24 07:59

Bitcoin rises as weaker US jobs data bolsters Fed easing expectations

Bitcoin rose as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report fueled expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. The June report showed only 57,000 nonfarm jobs were added, with previous months revised down by 74,000 jobs, indicating a cooling labor market. This led to a decline in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while increasing market bets on monetary easing. Investors rotated into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ether, as lower rates are seen as improving liquidity and financial conditions. The focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data for further clues on the timing of the Fed's first rate cut.

ambcrypto07/02 14:38

Bitcoin rises as weaker US jobs data bolsters Fed easing expectations

ambcrypto07/02 14:38

Will the Fed’s $8B liquidity injection create a turning point for crypto?

Given the current macro environment marked by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve signals. The Fed's recent $8 billion liquidity injection is drawing significant attention, as shifts in liquidity often directly impact crypto markets. Technically, crypto showed early resilience but momentum is fading, with the total market cap dropping 3.4% in a day, erasing nearly $100 billion. Rising Treasury yields and a risk-off shift are pulling capital into safe havens, reminiscent of the 2022 cycle that triggered a major crypto bear market. The Fed's intervention may provide short-term support and slow the flight to safety, potentially acting as a key catalyst in the current cycle.

ambcrypto03/27 09:12

Will the Fed’s $8B liquidity injection create a turning point for crypto?

ambcrypto03/27 09:12

Overseas Funds Accelerate Withdrawal, U.S. Bonds Face Largest Selling Pressure in Six Years

Overseas official investors are accelerating their withdrawal from U.S. Treasuries, with foreign official accounts at the New York Fed shedding $75 billion over the past four weeks—the largest monthly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic hit in March 2020. According to Deutsche Bank research, this implies net sales of approximately $60 billion, marking the most significant sell-off since the pandemic began. The sell-off is particularly concentrated in the mid-term segment of the yield curve, contributing to recent rapid yield rises. Unlike in March 2023, the drawdown was not offset by increased use of the Fed’s FIMA repo facility, indicating outright sales or non-reinvestment of maturing securities. The drop in custody holdings aligns with observed FX intervention by Asian central banks and a broader slowdown in foreign purchases of dollar assets. Historical correlation suggests custody data explains about 50% of the variation in official net flows reported in TIC data. Deutsche Bank warns that sustained foreign selling could erode the “convenience yield” advantage enjoyed by U.S. debt due to its reserve currency status. Estimates suggest the 10-year yield may be suppressed by 90–100 basis points due to dollar dominance. A continued retreat of foreign demand could push long-term yields significantly higher, increasing refinancing costs and affecting global financial conditions.

marsbit03/25 02:59

Overseas Funds Accelerate Withdrawal, U.S. Bonds Face Largest Selling Pressure in Six Years

marsbit03/25 02:59

2008-style crisis ahead? – How crypto investors are reacting to ‘zero rate cuts’

With expectations of zero rate cuts and persistent inflation risks, crypto market dynamics are shifting toward capital preservation. While the total crypto market cap remains stable near $2.4 trillion, defensive positioning is evident as stablecoin supply hits a new all-time high of $316 billion. USDT outflows and declining exchange reserves indicate investors are moving liquidity into on-chain stablecoins, preparing to redeploy when risk appetite improves. Analysts warn that sustained high yields and borrowing costs could heighten systemic risks, echoing pre-crisis conditions. This cautious stance suggests stablecoins are becoming a key hedging tool amid deteriorating macro conditions.

ambcrypto03/21 11:07

2008-style crisis ahead? – How crypto investors are reacting to ‘zero rate cuts’

ambcrypto03/21 11:07

Gold breaks KEY support with 3.7% drop – Will crypto face pressure next?

The latest inflation report, with February's hotter-than-expected PPI, triggered a 3.7% drop in gold, breaking key support. This sell-off is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, making traditional safe havens more attractive. Historically, a stronger DXY negatively impacts risk assets like crypto. Bitcoin is currently stagnant near $70k with negative funding rates and declining capital inflows, indicating a bearish bias. The falling Coinbase Premium Index and increased short positions suggest a crypto downturn may already be priced in, especially given macro pressures and the historical inverse correlation between DXY and BTC.

ambcrypto03/21 05:19

Gold breaks KEY support with 3.7% drop – Will crypto face pressure next?

ambcrypto03/21 05:19

Crypto Prices Retreat, Asian Markets Move the Same Way

Cryptocurrency prices have retreated from recent highs, with the total market capitalization declining by 4.11% and the FG Index dropping to 33 points. Major tokens like BTC (-4.18%), ETH (-5.44%), XRP (-3.89%), BNB (-3.25%), and SOL (-4.38%) all saw significant losses. Simultaneously, Asian markets experienced declines: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.5%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.3%, and India’s Sensex crashed over 1,600 points. Experts attribute the downturn to three key factors: rising oil prices (Brent crude above $112), strengthening US yields, and a stronger US Dollar. The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to influence global market sentiment.

TheNewsCrypto03/19 06:56

Crypto Prices Retreat, Asian Markets Move the Same Way

TheNewsCrypto03/19 06:56

Eric Trump Goes to War With Big Banks Over ‘Anti‑American’ Crypto Lobbying

Eric Trump has publicly criticized major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, accusing them of pursuing an "anti-American" agenda by lobbying against crypto and stablecoins. He claims these institutions are trying to block Americans from earning higher yields on savings—often 4–5% in crypto platforms—to protect their low-interest monopoly and prevent deposit flight. According to Trump, banks are supporting bills like the Clarity Act to restrict yields and rewards on stablecoins, undermining competition and consumer freedom. He argues this contradicts American ideals and reflects the banking industry's panic over losing dominance in digital finance. The conflict centers on the GENIUS Act, which allowed stablecoins but banned interest payments, and the proposed Clarity Act, which aims to further limit yields.

bitcoinist03/05 21:30

Eric Trump Goes to War With Big Banks Over ‘Anti‑American’ Crypto Lobbying

bitcoinist03/05 21:30

Fed Cuts Rates and Buys Short-Term Bonds: US Stocks, Short-Term Treasuries, Gold Rise; Dollar Falls; Bitcoin Fluctuates

On December 10, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds over the next 30 days. Before the announcement, U.S. stocks were mixed, the dollar and gold declined, and Treasury yields edged lower. After the release, equities and gold initially fluctuated before rising, short-term Treasury yields fell briefly, while longer-term yields eventually climbed. During the press conference, Chair Powell indicated that Treasury purchases would remain elevated in coming months but downplayed expectations for another imminent rate cut. His comments drove stocks higher, with major indices extending gains. Bond yields trended downward overall, and the dollar weakened further. Gold recovered early losses to hit a daily high, while Bitcoin experienced volatility before climbing toward the end of the event. By the end of the press conference, the S&P 500 and Dow were up 0.7% and 1.1% respectively, short-term yields hit session lows, the dollar index fell over 0.6%, and gold advanced 0.6% to approach $4,239. Bitcoin also rose, nearing $94,500.

华尔街日报12/10 21:29

Fed Cuts Rates and Buys Short-Term Bonds: US Stocks, Short-Term Treasuries, Gold Rise; Dollar Falls; Bitcoin Fluctuates