# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

A 140% Surge in Valuation in One Year: Who's Writing Checks for Defense AI?

In March 2026, military AI company Shield AI raised $2 billion in funding round, led by Advent International and J.P. Morgan, with additional participation from Blackstone. Its valuation surged 140% to $12.7 billion within a year. Similarly, competitor Anduril is reportedly seeking new funding at a $60 billion valuation. Both companies have seen valuations grow fourfold in just over two years, far outpacing revenue growth, indicating that the market is pricing them based on future platform potential rather than current earnings. This trend is mirrored in the public market, where Palantir’s market cap grew to over $420 billion by late 2025. Shield AI’s products include the MQ-35 V-BAT drone and the upcoming X-BAT autonomous fighter, while its Hivemind AI engine was selected by the U.S. Air Force for the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. A key driver is the structural shift in defense tech funding. Private equity firms like Advent, KKR, and Carlyle are increasingly investing in long-term defense infrastructure, moving beyond traditional venture capital. In 2025, global defense tech VC deals reached $49.1 billion, with 87% going to late-stage companies. The U.S. Department of Defense’s FY2026 budget request allocated $13.4 billion specifically for AI and autonomous systems, with $9.4 billion dedicated to aerial drones—directly aligning with Shield AI and Anduril’s offerings. This clear demand signal, combined with institutional capital moving into defense infrastructure, marks a shift from speculative investment to asset-level allocation in the defense AI sector.

marsbit03/27 07:52

A 140% Surge in Valuation in One Year: Who's Writing Checks for Defense AI?

marsbit03/27 07:52

Racing Against OpenAI: Anthropic Reportedly Plans IPO as Early as October

AI startup Anthropic, the developer of Claude, is accelerating its plans for an initial public offering (IPO) and is reportedly targeting an October listing, aiming to go public before its rival OpenAI. The company is in preliminary discussions with major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley, to underwrite the offering. The IPO is expected to raise over $60 billion, reflecting the market's high valuation of the generative AI sector and Anthropic's significant worth, which reached $380 billion after a funding round in February. The company is backed by a consortium of tech giants, including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, which have provided substantial funding and critical infrastructure support. A major regulatory hurdle was recently cleared when a U.S. court overturned a Pentagon decision that had labeled Anthropic a "supply chain risk entity," removing restrictions on its technology and allowing the firm to proceed with its IPO plans unimpeded.

marsbit03/27 01:08

Racing Against OpenAI: Anthropic Reportedly Plans IPO as Early as October

marsbit03/27 01:08

Even with the CLARITY Act Pressure, Is the Market Overreacting to Circle's Stock Price?

Despite recent market concerns triggered by the CLARITY Act’s potential restrictions on interest payments to stablecoin users, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan argues that the sell-off in Circle’s stock may be an overreaction. Using conservative assumptions, he estimates that Circle—the issuer of USDC, the world’s second-largest stablecoin—could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030. Key factors in this outlook include: - The stablecoin market is projected to grow to $1.9 trillion by 2030 (Citi base case), driven by utility in global payments and as a dollar alternative, not yield. - Circle currently holds 25% market share; Hougan expects it to maintain or even expand this position, especially in regulated markets. - Circle’s net yield (after distribution costs) is assumed to drop to 0.8% amid competition, though the CLARITY Act may actually support margins. Under these assumptions, Circle could generate ~$2.7B in net profit by 2030. Applying a market-average P/E multiple of 28x yields the $75B valuation—roughly double its current value. More bullish scenarios (larger market, higher share, or better margins) could lead to significantly higher valuations.

marsbit03/26 09:40

Even with the CLARITY Act Pressure, Is the Market Overreacting to Circle's Stock Price?

marsbit03/26 09:40

Exchange 'Listing Curse' Investigation: Why 89% of New Tokens Ultimately Become Retail Investor Traps?

A 2025 analysis reveals a stark reality: 89% of new tokens listed on Binance ended the year with negative returns, debunking the myth that an exchange listing guarantees profits. These tokens experienced an average price decline of 71-80%, often through a slow, steady bleed rather than a sudden crash. Listings are now widely seen as liquidity events for insiders and early investors to exit, earning the term "retail exit liquidity." Key factors driving this trend include excessive selling pressure from teams and airdrop hunters, overinflated valuations with minimal real users, weak capital flows into new altcoins, a market saturated with over 11 million new tokens in 2025, and a focus on narrative over actual product development. Projects in trend-driven sectors like Memes and RWA were particularly vulnerable due to lacking substance. Binance has also become less tolerant of underperformers, delisting tokens like A2Z, FORTH, and HOOK. The report concludes that only projects with genuine products and strong communities can survive long-term, as a Binance listing is no longer a shortcut to success but a test of sustainability.

marsbit03/26 07:22

Exchange 'Listing Curse' Investigation: Why 89% of New Tokens Ultimately Become Retail Investor Traps?

marsbit03/26 07:22

CLARITY Act Rewrites DeFi's Fate: Circle Feasts, DeFi Tokens Bleed

The CLARITY Act proposes significant regulatory changes for stablecoins and DeFi, fundamentally redefining them as payment tools rather than interest-bearing assets. This shift prohibits platforms from offering yield to stablecoin holders, effectively ending the narrative of stablecoins as savings products. Circle (CRCL) emerges as a structural beneficiary, likely to see increased USDC adoption and improved profit margins as yield distribution to users is restricted. However, its growth may depend heavily on continued USDC expansion. In contrast, DeFi tokens like UNI, AAVE, COMP, and others face significant headwinds due to potential compliance requirements, reduced flexibility, and limitations on stablecoin usage in DeFi protocols. Maker (MKR) is positioned as an exception, benefiting from its yield-generating model through real-world assets and a semi-compliant structure. Meanwhile, Tether's potential move toward greater transparency could intensify competition for Circle but validate the stablecoin model overall. The act accelerates a trend of value redistribution from crypto-native channels (e.g., Coinbase, DeFi protocols) to regulated financial infrastructure, with winners including Circle, MKR, and custody providers like BitGo, while many DeFi assets face structural downside risks.

Odaily星球日报03/26 05:41

CLARITY Act Rewrites DeFi's Fate: Circle Feasts, DeFi Tokens Bleed

Odaily星球日报03/26 05:41

Delphi Labs Founder: Two Weeks Deep in China's AI, Shenzhen Hardware Shocks Me, Software Valuations Scare Me

Delphi Labs co-founder José Maria Macedo spent two weeks in China meeting AI founders, VCs, and public company CEOs. His key takeaways: - **Hardware ecosystem in Shenzhen is impressive**, with systematic reverse-engineering of Western products and rapid iteration cycles. Companies like Bambu Lab are highly profitable and scaling fast. - **Software ecosystem is weaker than expected**. Chinese open-source models are strong, but closed-source models lag behind Western counterparts. GPU access remains constrained, and revenue gaps are significant (e.g., Anthropic’s $6B ARR vs. Chinese model companies at tens of millions). - **Founder profiles are highly accomplished** (top universities, Big Tech experience) but often lack rebellious, original vision. The education and VC systems favor execution over true innovation. - **Valuation bubbles exist** at both early and late stages. Some private AI companies are valued at 400x ARR, far exceeding Western multiples. Humanoid robotics is also overheating, with many pre-revenue companies targeting high-valuation IPOs. - **Information asymmetry favors Chinese founders**, who are highly informed about Western markets and tech trends. Many are building globally first, combining Chinese engineering with Western go-to-market strategies. Macedo believes the real alpha lies in finding non-traditional founders who break the "resume template" optimized by local VCs.

marsbit03/26 03:16

Delphi Labs Founder: Two Weeks Deep in China's AI, Shenzhen Hardware Shocks Me, Software Valuations Scare Me

marsbit03/26 03:16

Bitcoin Deeply Undervalued? ‘Yardstick’ Metric Hits Off-The-Chart Lows

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments reports that the Bitcoin Yardstick, a valuation metric comparing market cap to network hashrate, is at "off-the-chart" lows, signaling the cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued. The indicator has fallen below -1 standard deviation, reaching levels even lower than during the 2022 bear market. While this suggests Bitcoin is in a "cheap value" zone, it does not necessarily indicate an immediate price bottom, as the metric can remain undervalued for extended periods. A temporary spike in the Yardstick occurred in late January due to a U.S. snowstorm that forced miners offline, reducing hashrate, but the metric quickly fell again following a sharp price drop in February. Bitcoin has since rebounded, trading near $71,000.

bitcoinist03/25 09:01

Bitcoin Deeply Undervalued? ‘Yardstick’ Metric Hits Off-The-Chart Lows

bitcoinist03/25 09:01

Those Who Can't Buy Anthropic Are Driving Its Shadow Stock to 16 Times Its Value

A new closed-end fund, VCX, listed on the NYSE, saw its share price surge to 16 times its net asset value due to high demand for exposure to Anthropic, which holds a 21% stake in the fund. Anthropic, recently valued at $380 billion in a private funding round, is not publicly traded, making VCX one of the few ways for retail investors to gain indirect access. The fund's limited liquidity, with most shares locked until September, amplified buying pressure. Similar funds without significant Anthropic or OpenAI stakes performed poorly, highlighting that the frenzy is specifically tied to AI-related FOMO. However, the premium is considered temporary, as it may vanish once Anthropic and other held companies like SpaceX go public, expected in 2026-2027. The phenomenon reflects broader investor anxiety about missing out on transformative AI companies that are reshaping industries while remaining private longer.

marsbit03/25 08:05

Those Who Can't Buy Anthropic Are Driving Its Shadow Stock to 16 Times Its Value

marsbit03/25 08:05

Bittensor (TAO) Bearish Logic: The Income Desert Beneath the Computing Power Myth

Bittensor (TAO), currently priced around $275 with a market cap of $2.6 billion, faces significant challenges in generating sustainable external revenue despite its strong narrative around token scarcity, institutional backing, and AI decentralization. The network relies heavily on inflationary token emissions to subsidize operations, with an estimated $36 million in annual incentives dwarfing confirmed external revenues of only $3–15 million. Key subnet Chutes (SN64), for example, receives subsidies 22–40 times higher than its actual revenue. Without subsidies, its costs would exceed those of centralized competitors. The network lacks transparent demand-side metrics, and its subnets operate in a highly competitive environment, squeezed between low-cost self-hosted solutions and heavily subsidized cloud giants. While TAO’s value is driven by speculative factors like scarcity, halving events, and ETF prospects, its fundamental economic model shows little evidence of long-term viability or competitive advantage in the AI services market.

marsbit03/24 10:10

Bittensor (TAO) Bearish Logic: The Income Desert Beneath the Computing Power Myth

marsbit03/24 10:10

Only Two Ways to Survive in the Software Industry: AI Growth or High Profitability

The software industry faces a binary future: companies must either achieve >10% revenue growth through truly AI-native products or deliver >40% true operating margins (including stock-based compensation) within 12-18 months. The comfortable middle ground—modest growth with diluted equity—is unsustainable. Path 1 requires radical reorganization: identify top performers, restructure leadership, and allocate 50% of R&D to new AI products built with small, token-driven teams. Success depends on creating dynamic context layers, adopting usage-based pricing, and eliminating organizational barriers weekly. Path 2 demands extreme profitability through flattened hierarchies, minimized customization, price increases where defensible, and treating all equity as real expense. AI should drive engineer productivity gains, but this path involves significant layoffs and honest assessment of eroding competitive moats. Companies must choose decisively or face continued valuation pressure. The era of intermediate outcomes is over.

比推03/24 08:40

Only Two Ways to Survive in the Software Industry: AI Growth or High Profitability

比推03/24 08:40

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