# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bittensor, Firmly Ranked First in AI: Technology Evolving, Users Fleeing?

Bittensor (TAO) remains the dominant leader in the AI crypto sector with a market cap of $3.43B, accounting for nearly 20% of the total market. Its core innovation is the "Proof of Intelligence" mechanism, which directly rewards high-quality AI model outputs, differentiating it from competitors focused solely on compute or applications. The project demonstrated strong fundamentals with $43M in real Q1 2026 revenue (non-token incentivized), translating to a P/S ratio of ~20x, which is considered reasonable. A major technical breakthrough came from subnet Templar (SN3), which successfully trained the Covenant-72B model in a fully decentralized manner. This achievement, praised by AI leaders and compared to "modern Folding@home" by NVIDIA's CEO, validated decentralized training at scale using novel solutions like SparseLoCo for communication efficiency and Gauntlet for incentive alignment. The dTAO mechanism further amplified growth, allowing subnets to issue their own tokens backed by TAO. This created a leveraged feedback loop, driving the total subnet ecosystem to a $1.47B market cap. However, risks include heavy reliance on token subsidies masking true service costs, a lack of commercial moat leading to user attrition if subsidies decrease, and potential overvaluation if reported revenue includes internal ecosystem transactions rather than purely external demand.

marsbit04/11 00:15

Bittensor, Firmly Ranked First in AI: Technology Evolving, Users Fleeing?

marsbit04/11 00:15

Value Calculator Puts XRP At $1,632, But Pundit Says You Shouldn’t Be Looking At Price

An XRP enthusiast recently shared a valuation model predicting a price of $1,632 per token, based on assumptions including $19 trillion in daily transaction volume and $30 trillion in store-of-value demand. The model, derived from a framework by Ripple board member Susan Athey, uses inputs like a five-day average holding period and a 5% discount rate to project future value. However, a commentator emphasized that the specific price is less important than the underlying assumption: that XRP could facilitate global financial flows on a massive scale. While such ultra-bullish predictions are common in the XRP community, they often ignore basic market realities—a $1,000 price would imply a $60 trillion market cap, exceeding double the U.S. GDP. The key takeaway is to focus on the utility and adoption variables rather than fixating on price projections.

bitcoinist04/10 16:55

Value Calculator Puts XRP At $1,632, But Pundit Says You Shouldn’t Be Looking At Price

bitcoinist04/10 16:55

Tok-Edge Debuts ‘Redemption Token’ to Power $21M Crypto Fund Launch

Tok-Edge has introduced the "Redemption Token," a new cryptocurrency class designed to facilitate its $21 million crypto fund launch. The token enables investors to redeem fund shares at net asset value while allowing permissionless trading on public blockchains like Ethereum. The fund, targeting institutional investors, will implement an actively managed strategy across DeFi and liquid crypto assets. Tok-Edge, valued at $15 million, is backed by investors including Marcus Meijer and features an executive team with extensive traditional and crypto finance experience. The Redemption Token model merges blockchain advantages with regulated fund structures, aiming to expand institutional participation in digital asset markets.

TheNewsCrypto04/09 20:36

Tok-Edge Debuts ‘Redemption Token’ to Power $21M Crypto Fund Launch

TheNewsCrypto04/09 20:36

Market Analysis: Circle's Pricing Logic Is Outdated, Still Has 80% Upside Potential

Market Analysis: Circle's current valuation as an interest-rate-sensitive money market fund is outdated, with an estimated 80% upside potential. Despite a 75 bps Fed rate cut in H2 2025, USDC supply grew 72% to $75.3B, indicating demand is driven by utility, not just yield-seeking. The baseline forecast predicts a $1.5T stablecoin market by 2030, with USDC averaging $284B in supply. Reserve revenue is projected to grow 3.5x to $9.24B by 2030, as supply growth outweighs rate compression. Circle’s Payment Network (CPN) and other services add diversification, with total revenue reaching $9.8B and net income ~$1.8B by 2030. Key growth drivers include AI agent commerce (McKinsey forecasts $3-5T by 2030), B2B payments, and regulatory tailwinds like the GENIUS Act. A 25x terminal P/E on 2030 EPS of $6.73 implies a $168 target price. Risks include white-label competition, rate sensitivity, and reliance on Coinbase, but Circle’s liquidity depth and regulatory moat provide mitigation.

marsbit04/09 03:22

Market Analysis: Circle's Pricing Logic Is Outdated, Still Has 80% Upside Potential

marsbit04/09 03:22

Anthropic Employees 'Hold Back' on Selling Shares, Investors Queue Up Unable to Buy

Anthropic recently completed a tender offer for employee shares at a pre-money valuation of $350 billion, matching its February Series G round. Despite investors offering $5-6 billion to purchase shares, the transaction fell short of its maximum target because a majority of employees chose not to sell. Key reasons for the low supply include: rapid revenue growth (annualized revenue surged from $9B in late 2025 to an estimated $30B by March 2026), expectations of a potential IPO as early as October 2024 at a valuation between $400-500 billion, and high capital gains taxes in California. Employees preferred holding shares for higher future gains post-IPO. This follows a similar trend at OpenAI, where only two-thirds of approved shares were sold in a previous tender offer. For late-stage unicorns like Anthropic, tender offers serve as a liquidity tool for employees and a retention strategy amid intense AI talent competition. The undersubscribed tender indicates strong internal confidence and creates supply scarcity in secondary markets, where implied valuations exceed $500 billion. This may signal strong investor appetite and support a higher IPO valuation, though macroeconomic risks and potential SEC scrutiny over revenue recognition methods remain considerations.

marsbit04/09 02:38

Anthropic Employees 'Hold Back' on Selling Shares, Investors Queue Up Unable to Buy

marsbit04/09 02:38

Circle's Pullback: Still Worth Buying?

Circle: Still Worth Buying After the Pullback? Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin USDC, is at a critical juncture. Its current valuation of $15-20B primarily reflects its interest income from $770B in USDC reserves. However, data suggests a potential transformation into a fee-based digital dollar infrastructure network. Key evidence for this shift includes: * USDC's on-chain transaction volume grew 247% in FY2025, far outpacing its 72% circulation growth, indicating it's being *used* more, not just held. * Adjusted for on-chain noise, USDC dominates real economic settlement volume (64% per Visa data), despite USDT having 2.4x its market cap. Circle's three-layer revenue structure is evolving: 1. **Interest Income (95% of current revenue):** Tied to USDC circulation and interest rates. Faces headwinds from potential Fed cuts and a revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase. 2. **Payment & Transaction Fees:** The key to becoming an infrastructure play. The Circle Payments Network (CPN) is scaling rapidly ($5.7B annualized TPV), and non-interest revenue surged to $37M/quarter. 3. **Settlement Platform (Arc):** A long-term bet on becoming an institutional settlement standard, though its value remains unproven. Near-term catalysts include the Coinbase revenue-sharing agreement renewal (Aug 2026) and potential full OCC bank charter approval. A 3-5x return is plausible if USDC circulation grows at 40% CAGR. A 10x return requires multiple successes: CPN scaling, improved Coinbase terms, non-interest revenue exceeding 10% of total, and progress on Arc. Major risks include faster-than-expected interest rate declines, Tether achieving greater legitimacy, and competition from new yield-bearing stablecoins and payment giants like Stripe. The investment thesis hinges on tracking three metrics: USDC circulation growth, its velocity (via Visa data), and the growth of non-interest revenue. The data is leaning toward a successful transformation, but it is not yet guaranteed.

marsbit04/04 01:00

marsbit04/04 01:00

Two Acquisitions in One Day: OpenAI Buys 'Narrative', Anthropic Buys 'Barriers'

On April 2, OpenAI and Anthropic each announced an acquisition, reflecting their divergent strategies as both target an IPO by late 2026. OpenAI acquired tech talk show TBPN to shape public AI discourse and support its revenue base, which is 60% consumer-driven from ChatGPT subscriptions. In contrast, Anthropic purchased AI biotech startup Coefficient Bio for approximately $400 million in stock, continuing its focused strategy of deepening enterprise capabilities, particularly in high-switching-cost sectors like life sciences. Over the past three years, OpenAI completed 15 acquisitions across diverse fields including hardware, media, and healthcare, spending over $7.7 billion on disclosed deals, such as the $6.5 billion purchase of Jony Ive’s AI hardware firm. Anthropic made only three acquisitions, each precisely strengthening its product stack: Bun for coding infrastructure, Vercept for autonomous agents, and now Coefficient Bio for biotech R&D pipelines. Anthropic’s enterprise-focused revenue (80% of total) drives its strategy to lock in clients with vertical integration, as seen in its sequenced moves into life sciences and healthcare. Meanwhile, with a higher reliance on consumer subscriptions, OpenAI is investing in narrative influence—TBPN aims to boost ad revenue and steer public AI conversation. Both companies are on accelerated IPO paths: Anthropic eyeing a $60+ billion offering led by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, and OpenAI targeting a ~$1 trillion valuation. Their acquisitions underscore distinct priorities—Anthropic builds industry-specific moats, while OpenAI amplifies its public story.

marsbit04/03 10:07

Two Acquisitions in One Day: OpenAI Buys 'Narrative', Anthropic Buys 'Barriers'

marsbit04/03 10:07

Chinese and American AI Companies Rush to List, Crypto Waits in the Corner for Opportunities

Chinese AI companies are rushing to IPOs at reasonable valuations, driven by a "common prosperity" policy to distribute wealth more broadly, while US AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to go public around late 2026 at valuations potentially 100x higher. This AI IPO wave is drawing significant investor attention and capital away from other sectors, including crypto, in the short term. As a result, crypto faces funding headwinds and price pressure. However, this downturn may create attractive early-stage investment opportunities in crypto by 2026, similar to the post-2018 cycle. Longer term, AI is expected to boost crypto adoption by improving user experience through AI frontends and enabling autonomous agent-to-agent commerce on blockchain networks.

marsbit04/03 05:00

Chinese and American AI Companies Rush to List, Crypto Waits in the Corner for Opportunities

marsbit04/03 05:00

The Life-and-Death Game of Large Models: From the 'Six Dragons' to the Dual Giants Going Public — The Bubble, Breakthrough, and Endgame of AI Entrepreneurship

The Chinese AI large model startup landscape has undergone a drastic reshuffle in just two years. The initial "AI Six Dragons" quickly narrowed to the "Four Strong," and by early 2026, only Zhipu AI and MiniMax had successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first independent large model companies to go public. The industry has shifted from a technology and capital-driven frenzy to a focus on commercial viability and sustainable business models. Zhipu AI and MiniMax, though now publicly traded, face immense pressure with significant losses, high valuations, and challenges in achieving profitability. Zhipu relies heavily on enterprise customization projects, while MiniMax depends on overseas consumer products with limited monetization. In contrast, non-listed companies like DeepSeek and Kimi have thrived by focusing on technical excellence and niche markets. DeepSeek targets global users with cost-efficient operations, and Kimi dominates long-text processing for professional use cases. Meanwhile, former contenders like Baichuan AI and 01.AI have shifted to vertical sectors, struggling against tech giants and thinner margins. The industry is governed by three key realities: only a few players can compete in the general-purpose large model space; public listings bring heightened scrutiny and inevitable valuation corrections; and vertical markets are highly competitive, not a safe retreat. The sector is expected to consolidate within one to two years, with a stable structure emerging—led by major tech firms, a few top independent companies, and specialized vertical players. Listing is not an exit but a rite of passage, separating those that can achieve profitability from those that cannot. The era of speculation is over; survival depends on technology, product strength, and sustainable business models.

marsbit04/03 04:31

The Life-and-Death Game of Large Models: From the 'Six Dragons' to the Dual Giants Going Public — The Bubble, Breakthrough, and Endgame of AI Entrepreneurship

marsbit04/03 04:31

Stripe Rises, PayPal Falls: The New King of Payments Ascends the Throne

Stripe, the global payments infrastructure giant, surged to a $159 billion valuation in February 2026, marking a 74% increase from the previous year. It processed $1.9 trillion in annual transaction volume, accounting for 1.6% of global GDP. In contrast, PayPal, the legacy payments leader, faced stagnation with just 4.3% revenue growth in 2025, a sharp decline in core checkout growth, and flat active user numbers. Reports emerged that Stripe is considering acquiring PayPal. Stripe’s success is driven by strategic bets on next-generation technologies: it acquired stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge and crypto wallet provider Privy, and co-developed the Tempo blockchain, capable of over 100,000 TPS. It also partnered with OpenAI to create the Agent Commerce Protocol, enabling AI agents to conduct micro-payments via stablecoins. These moves position Stripe at the center of AI and crypto-powered transaction growth. Meanwhile, PayPal struggled with innovation. Its stablecoin PYUSD held less than 0.5% market share, and its management acknowledged execution failures. While PayPal remains a cash-generating business with 439 million active accounts, it has been slow to adapt to shifting industry paradigms. The divergence highlights a fundamental strategic difference: Stripe is building the infrastructure for the future of payments—on-chain settlement, AI economies, and programmable money—while PayPal has been optimizing within an outdated framework. The industry is now racing toward stablecoin and blockchain-based payments, a transition Stripe began leading nearly two years ahead of competitors like Visa and Mastercard.

marsbit04/01 06:39

Stripe Rises, PayPal Falls: The New King of Payments Ascends the Throne