# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Bear Market

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Bear Market", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bitwise: Crypto Becomes a Contrarian Investment, Three Logics to Understand the Current Market

**Summary** Matt Hougan, Bitwise's CIO, analyzes the current crypto market through three key lenses, arguing it has shifted from a momentum-driven to a contrarian investment. **1) Crypto Becomes a Contrarian Play:** The market is weak, with major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum down significantly. Capital has moved to hot sectors like AI, leaving crypto as an "unloved" asset class. This transforms crypto investing from trend-following to a test of patience and fundamental analysis. Investors now favor projects with solid fundamentals (e.g., Hyperliquid) over speculative ones. **2) Regulatory Overhang:** The uncertain fate of the U.S. CLARITY Act, a major crypto regulatory framework, is a key headwind. With its passage in 2024 seen as far from guaranteed (estimates range from 30-55%), institutional capital remains on the sidelines, choosing less risky alternatives like AI stocks. The market needs clarity—whether the bill passes or fails—more than any specific outcome to move decisively. **3) Capital Rotates to New Fundamentals:** This cycle differs from past bear markets where money fled to Bitcoin. Now, capital seeks smaller assets with strong use cases. While major cryptos fell in May 2024, tokens like Hyperliquid (+72%), Zcash (+50%), and XLM (+44%) rallied on their specific fundamentals. This rotation confirms the new contrarian, fundamentals-driven logic and signals the bear market may be in its later stages. **Conclusion:** Short-term pressure persists due to regulatory uncertainty and competition from AI narratives. Investing in crypto now requires a contrarian mindset—acting against the crowd and focusing on fundamental value. Patience and targeting high-quality projects based on their merits are essential for capturing long-term gains.

marsbit6 ч. назад

Bitwise: Crypto Becomes a Contrarian Investment, Three Logics to Understand the Current Market

marsbit6 ч. назад

Analyst Who Predicted The Bitcoin Crash from $82,000 Reveals What’s Next

A crypto analyst known as Tony, who previously predicted Bitcoin's drop from around $82,000, shares his outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. He asserts that Bitcoin is currently in a bear cycle and is likely to decline further, potentially setting new lows this year. Tony points to technical factors like the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci levels as resistance. He outlines a potential scenario where Bitcoin could see a fake breakout above $85,000 to trap retail traders before falling to new lows. His chart analysis suggests possible declines to around $50,000 by July, with a cycle bottom potentially below $40,000. Tony notes that while short-term bounces, possibly from the $67,000 region, could occur, the main trend remains downward. Another analyst, Colin, suggests the $65,000-$66,000 range might offer short-term support for a bounce but reiterates that a retest of $60,000 and lower is still likely, as Bitcoin has not yet seen the typical >70% decline from its peak observed in past bear cycles. Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,300.

bitcoinist11 ч. назад

Analyst Who Predicted The Bitcoin Crash from $82,000 Reveals What’s Next

bitcoinist11 ч. назад

The Rally That Wasn't

The article analyzes Bitcoin's sharp decline amid a shift in macroeconomic expectations, with strong US job data leading markets to price out Fed rate cuts. Bitcoin fell 13% to around $67,000, triggering significant outflows from US spot ETFs and indicating institutional de-risking. On-chain data confirms a bearish structure. Price has dropped back into the "bear market range," with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis falling below a key mean level—a pattern last seen in early 2022. The profitability bias has collapsed, with loss realization now dominating, mirroring a panic wave from February. Recent buyers who accumulated near the $82k top are under pressure, and loss realization is accelerating across both short-term and long-term holder cohorts. Off-chain, the rally failed at the aggregate US ETF cost basis near $83k, turning it into resistance. Spot market demand has deteriorated sharply, with sellers dominating order books. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot buyers have not returned to absorb supply. Options markets show sustained demand for downside protection (elevated put premiums) but not panic, with volatility premiums near three-month highs. The conclusion is that the market remains fragile, with overhead supply from trapped ETF investors, weak spot demand, and accelerating losses. Without a return of spot buying and a reclaim of key cost bases, Bitcoin is vulnerable to further downside within the prevailing bear market structure.

insights.glassnode12 ч. назад

The Rally That Wasn't

insights.glassnode12 ч. назад

Trapped Below Market Mean

The market encountered strong resistance at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean near $78k-$79k, a textbook rejection in the ongoing bear market. The failure to break through this zone, driven by aggressive profit-taking from recent buyers overwhelming demand, shifts the mid-term bias downward. Immediate support is now watched near the -1 standard deviation band around $68k. On-chain data confirmed the rejection, showing short-term holder profit-taking spiking as price approached $80k. A key accumulation cluster between $65k-$70k provides a foundation, potentially supporting a bounce, but it could also become the next major support if sell pressure persists. Off-chain, spot selling pressure is easing and institutional flows show early signs of stabilization, though full conviction is lacking. Derivatives markets show a record net short bias and declining implied volatility, indicating a defensive, range-bound environment. The 80k strike is a key pivot; a break above could trigger a short squeeze. Overall, the market remains trapped below resistance, awaiting a clear expansion in spot demand or institutional inflows for a decisive directional move.

insights.glassnode16 ч. назад

Trapped Below Market Mean

insights.glassnode16 ч. назад

For Hedging, Buy Gold and Oil; For Explosive Growth, Buy AI; Bitcoin, the 'Outdated' Asset, Enters a Bear Market

Bitcoin’s price has recently fallen sharply, hitting a two-month low near $66,000, with Ethereum also dropping to a three-month low. While surface explanations point to ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions, and corporate selling, a deeper issue is emerging: Bitcoin is losing a crucial asset competition. For years, Bitcoin thrived in a low-rate environment where investors sought alternatives amid inflation fears and dissatisfaction with traditional options. Now, the market landscape has shifted, leaving Bitcoin stuck in an "awkward middle ground," facing challenges on three fronts: 1. **As an inflation hedge, gold is winning.** Investors worried about persistent inflation are turning to tangible assets like gold, energy stocks, and commodity producers, which offer more direct pricing power and physical backing. 2. **For growth exposure, AI is winning.** Those seeking high growth now favor AI-related companies with actual revenues and profits, an area where Bitcoin's lack of cash flow puts it at a disadvantage. 3. **Within crypto, infrastructure and stablecoins are winning.** Even investors wanting crypto exposure have alternatives like exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and tokenization firms, whose performance is directly tied to real-world adoption and offers clearer operational leverage. The recent market reaction to inflation warnings highlights this shift. Instead of boosting Bitcoin as "digital gold," such news now drives flows toward traditional inflation-sensitive assets. Therefore, recent events like ETF outflows and corporate selling are seen not as causes, but as symptoms of this new reality. Capital has more compelling options, and investors are becoming more selective. The emerging bear case for Bitcoin is no longer about it being a fraud or failed technology, but rather that **scarcity alone is no longer enough**. It is no longer seen as the best hedge, the best growth asset, or the only crypto play.

marsbitВчера 02:19

For Hedging, Buy Gold and Oil; For Explosive Growth, Buy AI; Bitcoin, the 'Outdated' Asset, Enters a Bear Market

marsbitВчера 02:19

Hedge by Buying Gold and Oil, Chase Soaring Returns with AI. ‘Dated’ Bitcoin Enters a Bear Market

Bitcoin has recently declined, hitting a two-month low near $66,123, while Ethereum fell to a three-month low around $1,837. Analysts suggest the drop is not merely due to factors like ETF outflows or MicroStrategy's selling but reflects a deeper issue: Bitcoin is losing a broader asset competition. In a near-zero interest rate environment, Bitcoin previously thrived as an outlet for investor dissatisfaction with inflation and limited options. However, the market landscape has shifted. Bitcoin now occupies an "awkward middle ground," facing competition on three fronts. For inflation hedging, investors prefer gold, energy stocks, and commodity producers—assets with tangible backing and clearer pricing power. For growth exposure, AI-related companies with actual revenues and profits are more attractive. Even within crypto, investors can choose stablecoins, exchanges, or infrastructure firms tied directly to adoption, offering clearer business models and leverage. Thus, Bitcoin is no longer the top choice for hedging, growth, or crypto exposure. This shift is evident in market reactions: despite recent warnings about persistent inflation from a Fed official, Bitcoin did not rally as it might have in the past. Instead, capital flowed to assets with direct commodity or energy exposure. The recent ETF outflows and MicroStrategy sales are symptoms, not causes, of this new reality. Investors are becoming more selective, demanding clearer value propositions beyond mere scarcity. The emerging bear case for Bitcoin is not about it being a bubble or failed technology, but that scarcity alone is no longer sufficient.

华尔街日报Вчера 00:40

Hedge by Buying Gold and Oil, Chase Soaring Returns with AI. ‘Dated’ Bitcoin Enters a Bear Market

华尔街日报Вчера 00:40

Red Flags in US Stock Options Data: Last Time This Signal Appeared Was Before the 2022 Bear Market

A key gauge of U.S. stock market sentiment, the Cboe equity put-to-call ratio's five-day moving average, has fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, preceding the last bear market. This indicates investors are buying more than twice as many bullish call options as bearish puts, a historically extreme reading that signals potentially excessive optimism, particularly among retail traders fueled by the AI frenzy. Market analysts warn this mirrors conditions seen before the market peaks in late 2021 and early 2022, which were followed by sustained declines. Meanwhile, a record divergence has emerged between low overall market volatility (VIX) and high single-stock implied volatility, highlighting intense internal market divergence driven by AI-related stocks. Despite these cautionary signals, major indexes including the S&P 500 continued to hit record highs, with the tech sector leading gains.

marsbitВчера 09:37

Red Flags in US Stock Options Data: Last Time This Signal Appeared Was Before the 2022 Bear Market

marsbitВчера 09:37

Which Cryptos Are Best Positioned To Follow The Same Trajectory As Hyperliquid (HYPE)?

The article discusses cryptocurrencies that could potentially follow the remarkable trajectory of Hyperliquid (HYPE), which saw its token surge over 60% in a bear market. It identifies two main competitors in the perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) space: ASTER, the token of the Aster DEX, and LIT from the Lighter DEX. While ASTER has achieved billions in open interest like Hyperliquid, its token price remains around 70% below its all-time high. Similarly, LIT has also fallen more than 66% from its peak despite some trading volume success. The article suggests these significant declines create speculation for potential recovery rallies similar to HYPE's performance. In contrast, Hyperliquid continues to dominate, holding a $17.3 billion market cap and ranking among the top 10 cryptocurrencies. The search is on for the next token that can defy the bear market and replicate such success.

bitcoinist2 дня назад 12:02

Which Cryptos Are Best Positioned To Follow The Same Trajectory As Hyperliquid (HYPE)?

bitcoinist2 дня назад 12:02

I've Been a VC in Web3 for Nine Years: Asian Funds Are Experiencing "Hell Mode"

After nine years as a Web3 VC, the author observes a severe downturn in Asia's crypto venture capital scene, with many funds disappearing or pivoting away. The market has cooled dramatically since the 2021-2024 frenzy, leading to fewer deals and active investors. IOSG Ventures, a firm that has endured three market cycles, has adapted its strategy: shifting from 80-90% early-stage investments to a 50% early-stage, 30% post-TGE, and 20% OTC portfolio to find better value and liquidity. The current bear market is described as "hell mode" for Asian funds due to scarce LP capital, forcing extreme precision in targeting only top projects. The author argues the core industry problem has been the disconnect between tokens and real value, where tokens served as fundraising tools without granting holders rights to protocol revenue. A positive shift is emerging where projects like Uniswap and Morpho are programmatically binding token value to protocol profits. Investment focus has moved towards fundamentals: real-yield financial infrastructure (stablecoins, lending) and crypto-native AI infrastructure, while avoiding narrative-driven projects. The conclusion is that true, durable companies are born in pessimistic times when focus shifts to real user needs and sustainable business models. The industry's future will be shaped by those who remain after the泡沫 dissipates.

marsbit06/01 03:41

I've Been a VC in Web3 for Nine Years: Asian Funds Are Experiencing "Hell Mode"

marsbit06/01 03:41

Bitcoin Bulls Face Growing Market Headwinds

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $72,500, triggering $342 million in long liquidations. Analysts note mounting bearish pressure ahead of a $9 billion monthly options expiry, with put options significantly outnumbering calls. On-chain data reveals a worrying shift: large "whale" balances are stagnating or declining, while "dolphin" accumulation has slowed sharply—a pattern historically linked to sustained price weakness. The long-term holder supply has reached a record high, suggesting a lack of new buyers entering the market amid deteriorating macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

TheNewsCrypto05/29 12:47

Bitcoin Bulls Face Growing Market Headwinds

TheNewsCrypto05/29 12:47

活动图片

Популярные категорииright-arrow

Популярные тегиright-arrow

Ethereum

Regulatory Policy