# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Hash Global Founder: Why I Also Choose to Liquidate All My ETH Holdings?

Hash Global founder explains his decision to sell all ETH holdings, despite recognizing the potential regulatory clarity from the US CLARITY Act as a positive development. He argues against the narrative that such clarity would automatically grant ETH a "monetary premium" comparable to Bitcoin or gold. The core of his critique is that market valuation for ETH remains tied to fundamental network metrics—like mainnet revenue, DeFi activity, staking yield, and competition—rather than a pure store-of-value narrative. He contends that legal classification solves compliance issues for institutions but does not inherently create the deep, historical consensus required for monetary status. Furthermore, Ethereum's complexity and role as a multi-functional infrastructure asset (gas, collateral, settlement layer) work against the simple narrative needed for such a premium. Looking forward, he suggests that the rise of DeFi and tokenized real-world assets (RWA) will mean ETH is not the only yield-bearing asset; tokenized gold, treasuries, and others will also offer programmable yield. Thus, ETH's "yielding" advantage diminishes. He believes monetary premium will likely remain with Bitcoin, physical gold, and potentially tokenized gold, while ETH's value is more accurately framed as a crucial infrastructure asset. Ultimately, he views CLARITY's benefit as reducing a "regulatory discount" on ETH, not unlocking trillions in monetary re-rating. ETH's long-term value is significant but stems from its network effects, developer ecosystem, and role in on-chain finance—not from being a direct substitute for gold.

marsbit05/28 07:10

Hash Global Founder: Why I Also Choose to Liquidate All My ETH Holdings?

marsbit05/28 07:10

Elon Musk's 'Granny Drain'

Title: Musk "Milking the Old Folks" Author: Nancy, PANews As the memory sector surges with Micron and SK Hynix each surpassing a trillion-dollar market cap, Elon Musk is accelerating his own myth of becoming the world's first trillionaire. SpaceX, with its astronomical valuation, is speeding toward the capital markets. This potentially wealth-history-rewriting super IPO is pushing Musk toward that unprecedented personal fortune and delivering hundredfold or even thousandfold returns to early backers like Google, Valor Equity Partners, Founders Fund, and others. However, to sustain this most expensive space narrative in human history, new buyers are ultimately needed. As massive pension funds are set to be "forced to buy," the retirement savings of Americans are becoming the fuel for Musk's space dreams. Wall Street has begun paving a fast track for such super IPOs. Major indices like Nasdaq and S&P have recently eased rules, allowing mega-companies like SpaceX to be incorporated into key benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 much faster post-listing. This matters because a vast portion of the U.S. retirement system—trillions in 401(k)s and pension funds—relies on passive index investing. Once a company enters a major index, all funds tracking it are compelled to buy its shares automatically, regardless of valuation, profitability, or risk. This has sparked significant backlash. Teacher unions and major public pension funds (collectively managing trillions) have warned the SEC and written to Musk, opposing SpaceX's extreme governance structure where Musk holds 85% voting control. They argue workers' lifelong savings could be tied to a company resembling a Musk family office more than a transparent public entity. In essence, after early investors reap immense rewards, the potential "bag-holding" cost is being transferred onto passive investors—the ordinary American retirees—through the mechanism of index inclusion.

marsbit05/28 07:07

marsbit05/28 07:07

Hash Global Founder: Why I Also Chose to Liquidate All My ETH?

Title: Hash Global Founder Explains Why He Sold All His ETH The author (Hash Global founder) has liquidated his entire ETH holdings, despite acknowledging that the potential U.S. CLARITY Act (clarifying ETH as a decentralized digital commodity) is a significant regulatory positive. His core argument is that this regulatory clarity should not be conflated with granting ETH a "monetary premium" akin to Bitcoin (BTC) or gold. He disputes the thesis that ETH's valuation framework should shift from network revenue to a monetary/store-of-value logic. The market continues to value ETH based on concrete metrics like network fees, DeFi activity, staking yield, and ecosystem competition—essentially as a productive infrastructure/platform asset. BTC's narrative as "digital gold" is simpler and more suited for monetary premium. The author identifies several key reservations: 1) Legal classification solves compliance for institutions but doesn't automatically create long-term store-of-value demand. 2) ETH's "yield-bearing" advantage over BTC/gold may diminish as DeFi and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenize traditional assets like gold and treasuries, which can also generate yield on-chain. 3) Future monetary premium will likely remain with BTC, physical gold, and potentially tokenized gold, while ETH serves as the core settlement infrastructure for these assets. 4) Ethereum's value-capture mechanism remains unresolved, especially with Layer-2 scaling; ecosystem growth does not guarantee proportional value accrual to ETH. 5) Institutions using Ethereum for applications (e.g., stablecoins, RWA) does not necessitate them holding ETH as a core asset. In conclusion, CLARITY is a positive that reduces ETH's "regulatory discount," but it does not transform ETH into a monetary asset like gold. ETH is a critically important financial infrastructure asset whose valuation should be based on network fundamentals, usage, and value flow, not an assumed monetary premium.

链捕手05/28 06:53

Hash Global Founder: Why I Also Chose to Liquidate All My ETH?

链捕手05/28 06:53

A Trillion-Dollar Frenzy for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

Summary: A stark divide has emerged in the tech industry. While memory chipmaker Micron's stock soared 19% in a single day, pushing its market cap over $1 trillion, smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi reported a 43% plunge in adjusted net profit. The core driver is a severe supply crunch in memory chips, particularly for AI applications. Wall Street analysts, led by UBS and its unprecedented 204% target price hike for Micron, argue that long-term agreements (LTAs) from AI cloud giants are fundamentally ending the sector's notorious boom-and-bust cycles, justifying a re-rating from cyclical to infrastructure-like valuations. However, the "storage" market is now fragmented into three tiers. The first, AI-grade memory like HBM and server DDR5, faces extreme shortages and soaring prices driven by massive cloud capex. The second, mobile memory for smartphones, is also seeing sharp price hikes as manufacturers like Xiaomi are forced to pay more for remaining capacity, severely squeezing their margins. The third, PC retail channels, shows price declines due to existing inventory. The article questions the sustainability of the "supercycle" narrative. It highlights that Micron's revenue surge is driven almost entirely by price increases, not shipment volumes, making it vulnerable to a potential demand slowdown. While LTAs may dampen volatility, history suggests they are often tested during downturns. The current peak earnings, used to justify high valuations, represent a classic cyclical top. The piece concludes with a note of caution: when the entire Street chants "this time is different," it's wise to remember past bubbles, even as it acknowledges AI demand may indeed be structural.

marsbit05/27 11:57

A Trillion-Dollar Frenzy for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

marsbit05/27 11:57

What Are the Key Variables Determining the AI Bull Market?

Title: What Determines the AI Bull Market? Key Variables Revealed Despite rising oil prices above $100/barrel, persistent inflation, and fragile Fed rate cut expectations—a traditionally hostile environment for high-valuation tech stocks—the AI sector continues to drive the market to new highs. According to analysts, the current AI boom is in a phase of "rational fervor": while bubbles exist, they are not yet out of control. The crucial shift is the emergence of Agentic AI, which is evolving from an assisting tool (Copilot) to an autonomous execution tool (Autopilot), creating a clearer commercial path from investment to revenue. This shift accelerates Token consumption and inference computing demand while boosting revenue forecasts for leading firms. The market is now rewarding capital expenditure as it transforms from a burden into a competitive moat, supporting hardware chains like GPUs, optical modules, and storage. However, valuations have already priced in growth expectations for 2027-2028. The forward P/E ratio for the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants is about 35x, compared to 25x for the rest of the S&P 500. This premium implies AI adoption must occur 5 to 8 times faster than past technological revolutions—a scenario with little room for error. The sustainability of the AI bull market hinges on three key variables: 1. **Short-term liquidity shocks**: Risks include sustained high oil prices, resurgent inflation, rising interest rates, and potential unwinding of the yen carry trade. The critical question is whether the upward revision speed of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) can outpace the rise in interest rates. 2. **Mid-term industry realization**: Can the actual pace of AI adoption and commercialization match the current lofty valuations? Historically, general-purpose technology revolutions follow a non-linear path with periods of acceleration and deceleration. 3. **Long-term structural constraints**: These include energy and power grid limitations, employment displacement and consumer purchasing power, social acceptance and potential backlash, and potential hardware technology breakthroughs that could disrupt current supply chains. While the long-term prospects for AI remain optimistic with potential for significant productivity gains, the stock market's pricing depends not just on the vision but on the actual speed of realization amid these growing constraints. The direction is clear, but the pace of execution will determine whether the bubble remains controlled or spirals out of control.

marsbit05/27 02:05

What Are the Key Variables Determining the AI Bull Market?

marsbit05/27 02:05

Insiders Betting on Musk Are Reaping 'Historic Returns'

The largest IPO in history is imminent as SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is set to price its offering on June 12. At a targeted valuation near $2 trillion, this event will mint new billionaires from Musk's inner circle of long-time allies, rewarding their loyalty with unprecedented returns. Key beneficiaries include Antonio Gracias, Musk's close friend and confidant, who holds a 7.3% stake potentially worth over $140 billion, making him the second-largest individual shareholder. Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO since 2002, holds shares valued at roughly $2 billion. Bret Johnsen, the CFO, holds stock worth approximately $1.4 billion. Luke Nosek, a PayPal co-founder and early investor, stands to gain about $5.3 billion. The IPO filing also reveals complex and controversial financial arrangements. SpaceX has guaranteed nearly $20 billion in payments from xAI's subsidiary to Gracias's Valor Equity Partners for AI hardware leases—deals auditors flagged as "failed sale-leaseback" transactions, forcing SpaceX to record them as debt. Despite rapid revenue growth, SpaceX is not profitable, posting a $49 billion loss in 2025 and a $4.3 billion loss in Q1 2026. Capital expenditures are soaring, with over 60% directed toward AI. Public investors will inherit these losses, significant debts, and a governance structure heavily controlled by insiders, including a provision granting Musk up to a billion additional shares if one million people live on Mars.

链捕手05/26 07:41

Insiders Betting on Musk Are Reaping 'Historic Returns'

链捕手05/26 07:41

Where Did China's Q1 AI Funding Exceeding 100 Billion RMB Go?

In Q1 2026, China's AI sector raised over 110 billion yuan (approximately $152 billion) across nearly 600 financing deals, a 185.4% year-on-year increase. Major recipients included large model companies and embodied AI firms. Approximately 30-50% of funding was allocated to computing power (GPU procurement and cloud services), highlighting its critical role as a barrier to entry. Significant portions also went to R&D and global talent acquisition. In the large model sector, three key players emerged with distinct strategies: Moonshot AI (valued at $20 billion) pursued an open-source route, achieving rapid commercialization with its Kimi K2.5 model. StepFun (raising billions) focused on a trillion-parameter foundation model and terminal device integration, backed by smartphone supply chain capital. DeepSeek, launching its first funding round at a $45 billion valuation, maintained its open-source, cost-effective approach, now attracting state fund interest. The embodied AI sector saw over 50 deals totaling around 20 billion yuan, creating over 10 unicorns with valuations exceeding 10 billion yuan each. Leading companies like Galaxy General, Qianxun AI, Independent Variable Robotics, and Zhi Jian Power secured major funding, with some beginning initial product deliveries. However, a gap between high valuations and actual revenue poses bubble risks. Key trends identified include: a shift from VC-dominated funding to mixed industrial and state capital; rapidly rising valuations intensifying the "Matthew Effect"; accelerating IPO pipelines; the competitive advantage of open-source strategies; and embodied AI transitioning from proof-of-concept to small-batch delivery. Ultimately, the massive capital influx is pushing China's AI competition into a high-stakes phase where sustaining cash flow and operational endurance may be as decisive as technological breakthroughs.

marsbit05/26 07:06

Where Did China's Q1 AI Funding Exceeding 100 Billion RMB Go?

marsbit05/26 07:06

Investors Frantically Snap Up AI Firms with 'No Profits': A High-Stakes Gamble on 'the Right to Define the Future'

"Investors are pouring billions into Chinese AI startups with no profits, betting on the future of the industry. A state-backed fund is reportedly in talks to lead DeepSeek's funding at a $45B valuation, just weeks after it was valued at $10B. Along with companies like Zhipu AI, MiniMax, and Kimi (backed by Meituan and Alibaba), their combined valuation exceeds $140B. This isn't a typical venture capital play. Investors are paying for 'future definition rights'—a chance to set the standards for the next tech era. Morgan Stanley notes a 6-12 month window for this scarcity premium before more AI companies go public. Despite massive losses, these companies show strong growth. Zhipu AI's API revenue grew 60x, Kimi's annual recurring revenue doubled to $200M in a month, and MiniMax turned its gross margin positive, with over 70% of revenue from overseas. Their valuations vastly exceed profitable firms like iFlytek. Crucially, technical progress underpins this growth. DeepSeek's latest model boasts costs just 1% of a leading competitor's, while Zhipu AI has raised API prices due to high demand. However, gaps with top global models remain. Tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba, investing heavily while describing their own AI efforts as 'leaky boats,' are also investing in these startups as a hedge. Key risks loom: the closing scarcity window, computing power bottlenecks limiting growth, and the sustainability of DeepSeek's cost-advantage model. With state capital now a major player, the success of these companies has become a strategic national concern. The next year will test if their soaring valuations can be justified by future profits."

marsbit05/26 02:06

Investors Frantically Snap Up AI Firms with 'No Profits': A High-Stakes Gamble on 'the Right to Define the Future'

marsbit05/26 02:06

Raised $1.3 Billion in Seven Weeks, Yet SpaceX's Weighting Halved: The Dilution Trap of the NASA ETF

A new ETF named NASA, launched just seven weeks ago, has rapidly become the world's largest space-themed fund, amassing $1.3 billion in assets. Its primary draw is its unique position as a "pure" space ETF holding SpaceX stock through a special purpose vehicle (SPV). However, its exposure to SpaceX has been drastically diluted from 10.3% to 4.6% due to a massive, rapid inflow of investor cash. New money is forced into buying other public space stocks like Rocket Lab, meaning investors seeking SpaceX exposure end up with a portfolio of other companies. Further complications arise from the SPV's valuation mechanism, which only updates during specific manager trades, potentially lagging behind SpaceX's market price. This SPV will also face a six-month lock-up post-IPO, preventing investors from selling that portion if SpaceX shares drop after listing. The article highlights a valuation bubble in the broader space sector, with stocks like Planet Labs surging nearly 1000% in a year, driven more by the "SpaceX IPO narrative" than underlying fundamentals. Meanwhile, SpaceX's own financials show significant losses in 2024, and its record-breaking IPO valuation bundles its space business with other Musk assets like xAI, creating a complex investment proposition. The core warning is that the NASA ETF essentially uses SpaceX as bait but delivers a different product. The real beneficiaries may be the ETF issuers collecting high fees, while investors face dilution and hidden risks ahead of SpaceX's historic IPO on June 12th.

marsbit05/25 08:34

Raised $1.3 Billion in Seven Weeks, Yet SpaceX's Weighting Halved: The Dilution Trap of the NASA ETF

marsbit05/25 08:34

AI Impact on SaaS Software Stocks: Deconstructing the Bottom-Fishing Logic of Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake

"AI Nightmare for SaaS Stocks: Unpacking the Bottom-Fishing Logic for Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake" A deep dive analysis argues that the recent collapse in SaaS software stocks, dubbed the "SaaS Doom," presents a contrarian buying opportunity. The market panic, triggered by fears that AI will disrupt traditional per-user subscription models through "seat compression" and AI agents bypassing software UIs, has led to extreme selling in the software sector. The analysis evaluates three major players under a unified framework: 1. **Salesforce (CRM):** Positioned as a "margin of safety" play. Trading at historically low valuations (13-14x forward P/E), with strong cash flow and a massive buyback, it offers value. Its key challenge is transitioning from a "seat economy" to an AI-driven "task economy" with its Agentforce platform. 2. **ServiceNow (NOW):** The "clearest AI narrative" play. Its "AI Control Tower" strategy aims to become the governance and orchestration layer for enterprise AI agents, benefiting from AI proliferation. Backed by Nvidia's CEO, it trades at a relatively low valuation post-correction. 3. **Snowflake (SNOW):** The "high-risk, high-reward" bet. Its consumption-based model aligns with rising AI workloads, and its RPO growth is strong. However, it faces intense competition (e.g., Databricks), is not yet GAAP profitable, and carries the highest valuation. The conclusion counters the simplified "AI kills software" narrative. AI is eliminating software that sells only functional interfaces but rewarding platforms that provide essential infrastructure, data, and governance. The current sell-off may have created a buying opportunity for resilient software leaders positioned as future AI infrastructure platforms.

marsbit05/25 07:10

AI Impact on SaaS Software Stocks: Deconstructing the Bottom-Fishing Logic of Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake