# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Programmers Must Read: Job Hunting in Web3, Avoid These Four Types of High-Risk Gambling-Related Platforms

Chinese programmer "Xiao Wang" considers a Web3 career transition but faces job offers involving "perpetual contracts, on-chain gambling, and prediction markets," raising legal concerns. A legal team advises caution, identifying four high-risk platform types that may constitute illegal operations under Chinese law, despite attractive salaries and remote work: 1. **Web3 Gaming Platforms**: Often disguised as decentralized games (GameFi) but operate as on-chain casinos using USDT/ETH as chips, with smart contracts handling bets and payouts. Developers building betting logic, random number generators, or fund pools are considered key technical support in gambling operations. 2. **Perpetual Contract Development**: High-leverage crypto trading platforms (e.g., 150x) where users bet on price directions. Courts increasingly view these as gambling, and developers working on matching engines, liquidation systems, or referral programs face liability. 3. **Prediction Markets**: Framed as financial innovation for event forecasting, they essentially function as binary betting on outcomes (e.g., price movements or macro events). Technologists designing prediction contracts or oracle integrations are seen as enabling gambling mechanisms. 4. **Gambling Payment Platforms**: High-risk payment/clearing services for gambling sites, often masked as "payment solutions" or "USDT gateways." Developers building fiat/crypto deposit/withdrawal systems or currency exchange logic may be implicated in providing gambling-related financial services. Key advice: Reject any role where the core business involves "betting on outcomes with platform profit from odds/leverage." Conduct a two-step self-check: 1) Analyze the project’s overall model (white paper/website) for gambling patterns; 2) Scrutinize if your role involves critical components like betting logic, payout rules, or fund settlement. Prioritizing risk avoidance is crucial to prevent potential criminal liability and career disruption.

marsbit02/25 00:08

Programmers Must Read: Job Hunting in Web3, Avoid These Four Types of High-Risk Gambling-Related Platforms

marsbit02/25 00:08

More Accurate Than Polls, More Dangerous Than Imagined: Prediction Markets in the Eyes of the Fed

The Federal Reserve is exploring the use of prediction markets, particularly Kalshi, as a real-time tool for policy insights. A Fed-affiliated working paper found that Kalshi’s predictions for core CPI and unemployment are statistically comparable to—and sometimes more accurate than—Bloomberg consensus estimates. Prediction markets aggregate real-money, belief-backed trading, offering frequent updates and capturing nuanced shifts that traditional surveys miss. For instance, Kalshi priced inflation uncertainty in real time during a trade policy scare—a dynamic monthly surveys couldn’t reflect. While these markets provide valuable signals, they also carry risks. Prices reflect both expectations and risk preferences, and heavy reliance on sports betting for liquidity makes macroeconomic markets vulnerable to regulatory changes. If sports betting is restricted, liquidity could dry up, increasing manipulation risks. Moreover, if the Fed openly uses prediction markets, it could create a feedback loop where traders manipulate smaller markets like Kalshi to influence broader policy communication and traditional financial instruments. Despite these concerns, prediction markets offer a uniquely timely and distributed form of expectation aggregation—especially for events like FOMC meetings, where informed participants trade with real stakes. The Fed should require open data transparency to mitigate manipulation and carefully weigh the signal against the noise.

比推02/24 18:33

More Accurate Than Polls, More Dangerous Than Imagined: Prediction Markets in the Eyes of the Fed

比推02/24 18:33

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