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US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Near Yearly Outflow Territory

US spot Bitcoin ETFs are nearing net annual outflows following six consecutive days of withdrawals, with a significant $105.2 million outflow on Friday alone. This streak, which began May 14, has reduced the total net inflows for 2026 to $536 million. Major funds like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC led the recent outflows, contributing to an overall withdrawal of $1.55 billion since mid-May. This trend indicates a potential cooling of institutional interest in Bitcoin, with notable reductions in ETF holdings by firms like Jane Street and Goldman Sachs earlier in the year. While the broader US Bitcoin ETF market remains in net positive territory for 2026, inflows are dominated by IBIT and are not expected to reach 2025's levels. In contrast, spot Ether ETFs have seen net outflows, and new altcoin ETFs have struggled to gain traction. A positive note is the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), launched in April, which has attracted $264 million in net inflows.

TheNewsCrypto05/25 10:36

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Near Yearly Outflow Territory

TheNewsCrypto05/25 10:36

NeoCloud Three Giants: NBIS, IREN, CRWV – Which One Has More Investment Value?

This conversation analyzes the three leading "Neocloud" companies—NBIS (Nebius), IREN, and CRWV (CoreWeave)—in the context of the AI compute boom. The core thesis is that a severe GPU shortage will persist for 3-5 years, creating a massive, durable opportunity for specialized GPU cloud providers to supplement hyperscalers like AWS and Azure. Key differentiators are highlighted: CoreWeave is the early leader with the highest activated power and revenue, focusing on high-value AI training. IREN possesses the largest locked-in power capacity (4.5 GW) but has only secured Microsoft as a major customer so far. Nebius is positioned as the long-term pick due to its unique focus on building an inference-focused software stack ("token factory") and its exceptional engineering-centric team, led by a mathematician CEO with a proven track record. The discussion debunks bearish narratives, noting that Nebius recently raised prices for H100/B200 GPUs by 30-70%, indicating strong pricing power and contradicting fears of rapid GPU depreciation. A simple revenue model is presented: 1 MW of power equates to ~$10M in annual revenue. Nebius's guidance of 5 GW by 2030 implies $50B in revenue, vastly exceeding current consensus. All three companies are expected to succeed in the near-to-medium term due to overwhelming demand. However, for long-term (5+ year) investment, the preference is for Nebius due to its team, software strategy, and valuable stakes in subsidiaries like ClickHouse. The conversation also identifies the networking layer (e.g., Arista Networks) as a critical, underappreciated adjacent opportunity in the AI infrastructure build-out.

marsbit05/25 10:29

NeoCloud Three Giants: NBIS, IREN, CRWV – Which One Has More Investment Value?

marsbit05/25 10:29

Microsoft to Discontinue Using Claude: Too Expensive, or a Calculated Move?

Microsoft is discontinuing internal access to the AI coding assistant Claude Code for its engineers, citing high costs and transitioning them to its own GitHub Copilot CLI. Reports indicate that Claude Code's usage-based pricing model led to significant expenses, with estimates of $500-$2000 per engineer monthly, prompting cost reviews even at large firms like Uber. While Microsoft officially attributes the move to cost, analysis suggests it may also be a strategic move. Microsoft allowed internal use of Claude Code for six months to benchmark it against Copilot, gathering feedback to improve its own product. This "experiment" highlights deeper challenges: Microsoft lacks a competitive in-house general-purpose AI model, heavily relying on external partners like OpenAI and Anthropic. Claude Code has gained substantial market traction, surpassing Copilot in features like context window size and task completion rates, and is eroding Microsoft's control over the developer ecosystem. The shift signals broader industry concerns over AI pricing models and the strategic risks of dependency on external, rapidly evolving AI tools.

marsbit05/25 10:28

Microsoft to Discontinue Using Claude: Too Expensive, or a Calculated Move?

marsbit05/25 10:28

Google Cracks Down on 'AI Poisoning'

Google has taken a strong stance against "AI poisoning," a new form of manipulation where advertisers subtly feed information to influence AI-generated answers like those in Google's AI Overview. Unlike traditional SEO, which aims for higher website rankings, Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) seeks to have a brand or product recommended within the AI's response itself. This is particularly valuable as AI summaries, often perceived as neutral and comprehensive, can shorten the consumer decision path and directly influence purchases. The article illustrates the issue with a "hot dog experiment," where fabricated content was quickly picked up and presented as fact by AI. GEO exploitation is potent because AI models aggregate information from various sources—reviews, articles, forums—and can mistake coordinated marketing campaigns for genuine consensus. This threatens the core credibility of search engines. While Google's updated spam policy now explicitly covers attempts to manipulate AI-generated content, enforcement faces challenges. Google can leverage its long experience fighting SEO spam, using penalties like ranking demotion. However, sophisticated "gray area" tactics, such as sponsored third-party reviews or industry reports, are harder to distinguish from legitimate promotion. Other AI players, like Microsoft, have taken a more open approach to GEO, viewing it as a new channel for brands. Ultimately, as AI becomes a primary information source, maintaining the trustworthiness of its answers is a critical challenge for all platforms.

marsbit05/25 10:07

marsbit05/25 10:07

When Futu Turns into a Matchmaking Corner: Overseas Identity Becomes the Hard Currency for the Middle Class

When Futu Becomes a Matchmaking Corner: Overseas Status as the New Hard Currency for China's Middle Class Following a severe penalty announcement from Chinese regulators on May 22nd targeting offshore brokerages like Futu, its app community unexpectedly transformed into an impromptu matchmaking platform. Users posted相亲 (matchmaking) requests, explicitly seeking partners with overseas residency or citizenship, revealing a stark new reality: for China's middle class, an overseas identity has become a crucial asset. The regulatory crackdown, which restricts mainland Chinese residents from opening new accounts to buy overseas securities like US stocks, has sharply escalated the value of a foreign passport or permanent residency. This status now acts as a gateway to global asset allocation—including US equities, offshore property, and foreign currency deposits—effectively becoming a new form of "hard currency." Its scarcity, non-transferability (except through marriage, inheritance, etc.), and role as a hedge against domestic uncertainty have driven its premium. The article traces the evolution of how China's middle class views overseas resources: from an investment for opportunity (2000s), to risk diversification (2010s), and now to a mandatory "insurance policy" for financial access. With the regulatory window closing for many, the demand is shifting towards securing such status for the next generation through international education. The surreal scene of high-performing investors posting dating resumes underscores a 2026 where financial talent can be secondary to the right passport.

marsbit05/25 09:16

When Futu Turns into a Matchmaking Corner: Overseas Identity Becomes the Hard Currency for the Middle Class

marsbit05/25 09:16

Understanding Bound in One Article: The "Multi-signature + Timelock" Escape Mechanism and the Off-Chain Matching Black Box

**Title**: Understanding Bound: The Escape Mechanism of "Multi-Sig + Time Lock" and the Off-Chain Matching Black Box **Summary**: Bound Exchange, evolved from the earlier radFi platform, introduces a novel approach to Bitcoin trading by combining self-custody security with exchange-like speed. Its core mechanism relies on a 2-of-2 multi-signature (multi-sig) address for user deposits. One private key is held by the user via a passkey, and the other is held by Bound. This setup requires both keys to sign any transaction, preventing Bound from unilaterally accessing user funds (non-custodial). To address the risk of Bound becoming unavailable, a 3-month timelock is integrated into the Bitcoin script. After this period, users can withdraw their assets with just their single signature, ensuring an escape hatch. For trading, Bound operates a concentrated liquidity AMM. However, as Bitcoin L1 lacks smart contracts, the AMM curve, liquidity management, and trade price calculations occur off-chain in Bound's backend database. On-chain Bitcoin transactions serve only as final settlement receipts for pre-determined amounts. This creates a centralization point: the critical sequence of trade execution—which determines the exact price along the curve for each order—is managed off-chain by Bound in a non-transparent "black box." While the 2-of-2 setup protects user本金 (principal), the pricing and ordering of trades introduce potential operational MEV risks, as the order processing is invisible and unverifiable on-chain. In practice, users can also connect external wallets (like Unisat) for fully self-custodied trading, but this requires manually signing every transaction. The platform currently supports deposits of BTC and Runes only.

marsbit05/25 09:11

Understanding Bound in One Article: The "Multi-signature + Timelock" Escape Mechanism and the Off-Chain Matching Black Box

marsbit05/25 09:11

Amid Internal and External Challenges, Is Ethereum's Neutral Route Still Viable?

"Ethereum is facing a dual crisis of market pressure and internal challenges. Its native token ETH is in a mid-term downtrend, with negative sentiment prevailing, weak price action, and significant outflows from ETFs. The ETH/BTC ratio has hit a ten-month low, and institutional holdings have shrunk. Concurrently, the Ethereum Foundation has seen a major exodus of core personnel following its commitment to a neutral, non-commercial development roadmap focused on censorship resistance, openness, privacy, and security (CROPS). This stance has sparked debate. Critics, including former members, argue that the ecosystem lacks a dedicated, well-funded entity to promote ETH's commercial value and compete with rival chains. Proposals suggest creating a new, independent body to drive adoption and token value, forming a dual-model with the Foundation. While some investors view the personnel changes as normal turnover and remain bullish on Ethereum's long-term fundamentals, the immediate path forward is unclear. Analysts believe Ethereum must execute its technical roadmap (like upcoming upgrades), clarify governance, and focus on high-value sectors like DeFi and tokenization to convert its technological edge into a compelling investment thesis. The current downturn tests whether its decentralized model can adapt to balance core principles with commercial competitiveness."

marsbit05/25 09:05

Amid Internal and External Challenges, Is Ethereum's Neutral Route Still Viable?

marsbit05/25 09:05

Technology Has No Barriers, 24/7 Trading is the Key to Hyperliquid's Success

The article argues that Hyperliquid's competitive edge lies not in technological superiority but in its 24/7 trading model, which fundamentally challenges traditional finance's fixed market hours. Based in Singapore with an 11-person team, Hyperliquid has generated significant revenue and trading volume. Its core advantage is the ability to facilitate trading continuously, including during weekends when major exchanges like the CME are closed. This was demonstrated when Hyperliquid listed a SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual contract on a Sunday, allowing the market to price the company hours before traditional institutions opened. This disruption has drawn regulatory scrutiny from traditional giants like CME and ICE, who cite risks like lack of KYC and market manipulation. However, the article suggests their concern stems from Hyperliquid eroding the "time monopoly" of established markets. The piece contrasts Hyperliquid's synthetic derivatives—pure price-betting contracts with no underlying asset or centralized issuer—with other models like PreStocks (dependent on real股权) and Ondo (licensed but targetable). Hyperliquid's code-based, decentralized structure makes it resilient to takedowns, even if founders face legal action. Ultimately, the author concludes that while it raises legitimate regulatory questions, Hyperliquid's "unforgeable" competitive barrier is the time advantage of non-stop trading, a feature legacy systems cannot replicate.

marsbit05/25 09:05

Technology Has No Barriers, 24/7 Trading is the Key to Hyperliquid's Success

marsbit05/25 09:05

New Information Laundering in Prediction Markets: How Secrets Blend into Investment Signals

"The New Information Laundering in Prediction Markets: How Secrets Infiltrate Investment Signals In late February 2026, nine linked anonymous wallets on Polymarket placed over 80 bets on specific details of a US-Iran war, winning over $2.4 million with a 98% win rate. This exemplifies 'information laundering'—a destructive flaw inherent to prediction markets. These markets function by aggregating trader supply and demand on an order book to set prices, which represent collective probability estimates. This makes them valuable real-time sentiment indicators for institutions. However, the system cannot distinguish between public information and stolen secrets. Confidential information enters one end, and 'clean' market prices—bearing no trace of their illicit origin—emerge from the other. For example, an insider knowing of an imminent strike can buy contracts at low odds, pushing the price up and disguising the secret as a savvy market signal, then profit massively when the event occurs. Analysts can sometimes uncover these schemes due to the blockchain's transparency, as seen with Bubblemaps. Paradoxically, this same transparency can inadvertently broadcast secrets to adversarial observers, providing them with low-cost intelligence. Current laws, like insider trading regulations focused on corporate information, fail to address this issue, especially concerning events like military actions with no 'issuer.' Jurisdictional challenges are amplified as platforms operate offshore, easily bypassing national bans with VPNs. Recent US congressional investigations and proposed bills aim to ban war betting and trading on non-public information by officials. The core issue is that information laundering is not a bug but a feature: a market that perfectly converts knowledge into price will inherently reward those with the best information, including those who obtained it illicitly. As prediction markets grow, potentially reaching hundreds of billions in volume, society must confront whether it can tolerate a machine that profitably transforms its most guarded secrets into public, tradable numbers."

链捕手05/25 08:56

New Information Laundering in Prediction Markets: How Secrets Blend into Investment Signals

链捕手05/25 08:56

Trump’s Dual Pressure: When the Iran Deal Meets the Midterm Elections

U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate a deal with Iran are triggering a political backlash within his own Republican Party, as the approach of midterm elections intensifies internal divisions. Reports of a potential agreement—involving a temporary ceasefire, phased sanctions relief, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets in exchange for discussions on Tehran diluting or transferring its stockpile of highly enriched uranium—have drawn sharp criticism from GOP hawks. Key allies like Senators Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz warned that such concessions could allow Iran to recuperate, undermine recent U.S. military gains, and ultimately strengthen a hostile regime. The dispute highlights a broader political struggle for Trump, who must reconcile his "America First" posture with diplomatic compromise while facing a tough electoral landscape. With Republicans fighting to maintain control of Congress and Trump’s approval ratings declining, the Iran deal has quickly become a test of party loyalty and perceived toughness. Public sparring between Trump aides and critics—including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo—underscores the internal pressure. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Trump’s historically hardline stance, skeptics like Senator Thom Tillis questioned the logic of any deal that leaves nuclear materials in Iran. The outcome now hinges on whether Trump can persuade his party’s hardliners to accept a negotiated exit.

marsbit05/25 08:54