2026-06-07 Воскресенье

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Raised $1.3 Billion in Seven Weeks, Yet SpaceX's Weighting Halved: The Dilution Trap of the NASA ETF

A new ETF named NASA, launched just seven weeks ago, has rapidly become the world's largest space-themed fund, amassing $1.3 billion in assets. Its primary draw is its unique position as a "pure" space ETF holding SpaceX stock through a special purpose vehicle (SPV). However, its exposure to SpaceX has been drastically diluted from 10.3% to 4.6% due to a massive, rapid inflow of investor cash. New money is forced into buying other public space stocks like Rocket Lab, meaning investors seeking SpaceX exposure end up with a portfolio of other companies. Further complications arise from the SPV's valuation mechanism, which only updates during specific manager trades, potentially lagging behind SpaceX's market price. This SPV will also face a six-month lock-up post-IPO, preventing investors from selling that portion if SpaceX shares drop after listing. The article highlights a valuation bubble in the broader space sector, with stocks like Planet Labs surging nearly 1000% in a year, driven more by the "SpaceX IPO narrative" than underlying fundamentals. Meanwhile, SpaceX's own financials show significant losses in 2024, and its record-breaking IPO valuation bundles its space business with other Musk assets like xAI, creating a complex investment proposition. The core warning is that the NASA ETF essentially uses SpaceX as bait but delivers a different product. The real beneficiaries may be the ETF issuers collecting high fees, while investors face dilution and hidden risks ahead of SpaceX's historic IPO on June 12th.

marsbit05/25 08:34

Raised $1.3 Billion in Seven Weeks, Yet SpaceX's Weighting Halved: The Dilution Trap of the NASA ETF

marsbit05/25 08:34

NEAR Doubles: 3 Major Trends Become the 'Engine' for Token Price Surge

NEAR token price surged from around $1.24 in early May to over $2.5, with its market cap returning above $3 billion. This significant growth, occurring amidst broader market volatility, is attributed to three key factors. First, the AI narrative has been a major driver. NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin is a co-author of the seminal Transformer paper, the foundation of modern AI models like ChatGPT. NEAR has integrated AI capabilities into its ecosystem, notably through the Near.com super-app, positioning itself as a key decentralized AI infrastructure project. Endorsements from figures like Arthur Hayes further boosted market sentiment. Second, NEAR is enhancing its utility as a privacy-focused blockchain. With the launch of NEAR Intents for cross-chain transactions, privacy features like Confidential Payments and Confidential Intents have become critical to protect users from MEV attacks. These functionalities allow private transfers of assets like ETH and BTC across more than 35 chains, balancing privacy with usability and appealing to institutional and enterprise users. Third, a new tokenomics mechanism is providing buy-side pressure. Following the full unlocking of its initial supply in late 2025, NEAR now employs a fee-burn model. All protocol fees generated by the NEAR Intents layer are used to buy back and effectively remove NEAR tokens from circulation. With NEAR Intents TVL exceeding $80 million, this creates consistent monthly buybacks estimated around $3 million, reducing sell pressure. Additional technical upgrades planned for mid-2026, including dynamic re-sharding and post-quantum security, aim to further strengthen the network's scalability and robustness.

marsbit05/25 08:31

NEAR Doubles: 3 Major Trends Become the 'Engine' for Token Price Surge

marsbit05/25 08:31

After $HYPE Hits a New High, Is It Worth Considering the Stock of "HYPE Version MicroStrategy" $PURR?

**HYPE Hits New Highs: Is $PURR, the "HYPE Version of MicroStrategy," Worth Considering?** The stock of Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: $PURR), a publicly-traded company that exclusively buys and holds the cryptocurrency HYPE, has gained over 100% year-to-date, mirroring HYPE's own 150% surge to new all-time highs. This has sparked discussions about PURR being a more "capital-efficient" play than MicroStrategy's bitcoin strategy, given its reported ~$1 billion unrealized gain on a ~$220 million investment. The article clarifies that PURR is essentially a pure-play wrapper for HYPE, with no other business. It resulted from a 2025 SPAC merger led by firms like Paradigm and Atlas Merchant Capital, bringing traditional finance veterans to its board. Its value is entirely derived from the price of HYPE. While PURR offers a crucial compliance bridge for US-based institutional and retirement accounts unable to access HYPE directly, the analysis questions the "capital efficiency" narrative. The outsized gains are attributed to HYPE's exceptional performance, not superior corporate strategy. For investors who can buy HYPE directly, holding PURR introduces unnecessary risks: potential shareholder dilution from future stock offerings, incomplete passthrough of staking rewards, market hour mismatches, and counterparty risk via its single custodian. A key metric is its mNAV (modified net asset value). Current calculations show PURR trades at a discount to its HYPE holdings, but this could flip to a premium depending on the execution of registered share issuances. The article concludes that PURR is primarily a "conduit product." The investment thesis hinges entirely on one's bullishness on HYPE itself, not on the PURR wrapper, which adds friction and risk for those with direct crypto access.

marsbit05/25 08:02

After $HYPE Hits a New High, Is It Worth Considering the Stock of "HYPE Version MicroStrategy" $PURR?

marsbit05/25 08:02

The Real Progress and Investment Opportunities of Decentralized AI Computing Power Networks in 2026

In 2026, the AI compute market is marked by centralized GPU consolidation and a significant GPU shortage for smaller players. In this context, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN), valued at $9.4B+, have emerged as a viable, revenue-generating alternative. Leading protocols like Aethir ($150M ARR), io.net (130k+ GPUs), Akash, Bittensor, and Render are carving out distinct niches, moving beyond hype to deliver verifiable income primarily from non-crypto-native clients. The key advantage of decentralized GPU networks lies in serving latency-tolerant, cost-sensitive workloads like AI inference, fine-tuning, data preprocessing, and agent operations, offering substantial cost savings (45-80%) compared to major cloud providers. However, reliability variance, lack of robust SLAs, and fragmented tech stacks remain significant adoption hurdles. The sector is maturing with critical 2026 shifts: 1) Evolution of tokenomics towards demand-driven, revenue-linked models (e.g., Render's BME, io.net's IDE), and 2) Clearer enterprise adoption pathways, with traditional firms integrating decentralized compute. For new entrants, opportunities are now concentrated in specialized tooling layers (orchestration, verification, SLA management), vertical applications (e.g., bio-med, content generation), and innovative token designs tied to real usage, rather than generic GPU aggregation. The convergence with the emerging AI Agent economy presents a significant future growth vector.

marsbit05/25 08:01

The Real Progress and Investment Opportunities of Decentralized AI Computing Power Networks in 2026

marsbit05/25 08:01

The Iran Deal Is Not a Finale, But a 60-Day Political Respite

The reported "Iran deal" is not a comprehensive peace agreement, but a proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding. During this period, Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz, the US would lift its naval blockade, and Iran would receive a sanctions waiver to sell oil, with formal nuclear negotiations to follow. However, the core structural conflicts remain unresolved: Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, ultimate control of the Strait, the sequence of sanctions relief versus nuclear concessions, and the potential for Israeli unilateral action to derail the process. The article highlights deeper geopolitical currents: China is indirectly shaping talks via Pakistan to restore Iranian oil flows and curb US dominance, while trade routes through Oman and the UAE create leaks in the US blockade. Parallel US diplomatic efforts aim to draw India into its security framework, though India remains cautious. Ultimately, the deal offers short-term political breathing room for both Washington and Tehran. The true test will come after the 60-day window, when the irreconcilable demands—US insistence on nuclear rollback versus Iran's determination to retain the Strait as a deterrent—will resurface, determining if this is a path to peace or merely a managed pause in the conflict.

marsbit05/25 07:51

The Iran Deal Is Not a Finale, But a 60-Day Political Respite

marsbit05/25 07:51

We Captured Thousands of Job Postings and Discovered ByteDance is Reviving Smartphone R&D

This article analyzes ByteDance's recent hiring activities, revealing a potential restart of smartphone hardware development. By scraping and analyzing thousands of ByteDance job postings, the authors identify three key categories: roles for the "Doubao Phone Assistant" (an AI agent), for a "Mobile OS" (system-level development), and for hardware/engineering positions in Shenzhen (a manufacturing hub). The piece traces the context to the 2025 launch of the "Doubao Phone," a concept device that integrated an AI agent directly into a smartphone, allowing it to see the screen, operate apps, and perform tasks like shopping or booking tickets. While innovative as an early AI Agent prototype, it faced operational restrictions from major platforms like WeChat and Alipay. The new hiring signals a deeper commitment. "Doubao Phone Assistant" roles focus on core Agent capabilities (task execution, memory, cross-app operation). "Mobile OS" positions involve deep system work (kernel, chip adaptation, power/thermal management) necessary for a responsive, always-on AI. Shenzhen-based hardware roles (structure design, testing, production) suggest preparation for physical device manufacturing. The article concludes that in the AI era, where phones may become an Agent's "body," controlling the operating system and hardware is critical. For a company like ByteDance, being merely an app within others' ecosystems is no longer sustainable if it aims to own the next-generation user interface. Therefore, while a consumer phone brand isn't confirmed, ByteDance is decisively moving beyond app development into the complex domain of system-level and hardware-integrated AI.

marsbit05/25 07:31

We Captured Thousands of Job Postings and Discovered ByteDance is Reviving Smartphone R&D

marsbit05/25 07:31

AI Impact on SaaS Software Stocks: Deconstructing the Bottom-Fishing Logic of Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake

"AI Nightmare for SaaS Stocks: Unpacking the Bottom-Fishing Logic for Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake" A deep dive analysis argues that the recent collapse in SaaS software stocks, dubbed the "SaaS Doom," presents a contrarian buying opportunity. The market panic, triggered by fears that AI will disrupt traditional per-user subscription models through "seat compression" and AI agents bypassing software UIs, has led to extreme selling in the software sector. The analysis evaluates three major players under a unified framework: 1. **Salesforce (CRM):** Positioned as a "margin of safety" play. Trading at historically low valuations (13-14x forward P/E), with strong cash flow and a massive buyback, it offers value. Its key challenge is transitioning from a "seat economy" to an AI-driven "task economy" with its Agentforce platform. 2. **ServiceNow (NOW):** The "clearest AI narrative" play. Its "AI Control Tower" strategy aims to become the governance and orchestration layer for enterprise AI agents, benefiting from AI proliferation. Backed by Nvidia's CEO, it trades at a relatively low valuation post-correction. 3. **Snowflake (SNOW):** The "high-risk, high-reward" bet. Its consumption-based model aligns with rising AI workloads, and its RPO growth is strong. However, it faces intense competition (e.g., Databricks), is not yet GAAP profitable, and carries the highest valuation. The conclusion counters the simplified "AI kills software" narrative. AI is eliminating software that sells only functional interfaces but rewarding platforms that provide essential infrastructure, data, and governance. The current sell-off may have created a buying opportunity for resilient software leaders positioned as future AI infrastructure platforms.

marsbit05/25 07:10

AI Impact on SaaS Software Stocks: Deconstructing the Bottom-Fishing Logic of Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake

marsbit05/25 07:10

Just Now, Ilya Drops Another Mind-Blowing Image ‘The Thinker’: What’s on His Mind in the Ocean of AI Chips?

Shortly after going quiet, Ilya Sutskever, AI's enigmatic spiritual leader, posted a mysterious sketch titled "The Thinker" on Instagram. The drawing depicts Rodin's iconic sculpture perched on a cliff, contemplating a vast, purple microscopic universe made of transistors and digital circuits—a chip die shot—signed "IS 2026." This cryptic image, saying "nothing yet everything," ignited widespread speculation in Silicon Valley. Some see it as a search for sacred meaning in silicon, others as a silent critique of brute-force compute scaling. It echoes Ilya's past influence, like the original OpenAI logo he once doodled on a wall. The post coincided with a triple announcement from OpenAI, intensifying the frenzy. First, an internal reasoning model discovered new geometric constructions, challenging a long-standing conjecture and impressing Fields Medalist Tim Gowers. Second, Codex for Mac introduced "Appshots," allowing it to access application windows—even text outside the view—and gained features like Goal Mode, a built-in browser, and plugin capabilities, evolving from a coding assistant into a persistent "resident engineer." Third, reports surfaced that OpenAI is preparing for a confidential IPO filing with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, potentially eyeing a fall public listing. Together, these moves signal that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is not a distant slogan but an active force reshaping science, software engineering, and capital markets. Ilya's art hints at a paradigm shift where the boundary between human thought and silicon computation blurs. As OpenAI insiders excitedly say, "Feel the AGI," it suggests a tangible breakthrough may be imminent—one our generation is likely to witness.

marsbit05/25 06:51

Just Now, Ilya Drops Another Mind-Blowing Image ‘The Thinker’: What’s on His Mind in the Ocean of AI Chips?

marsbit05/25 06:51

Vitalik on the Future of the Ethereum Foundation: A Smaller, More Distinct, but Longer-Lasting Ship

Vitalik discusses the future direction of the Ethereum Foundation (EF), emphasizing a shift towards a smaller, more focused, and longer-lasting organization. He clarifies this is his personal view and that his own influence within EF is diminishing, which he welcomes. The key driver is aligning EF's actions with its stated values of decentralization, privacy, and being a "sanctuary technology," addressing criticism that its operations haven't fully reflected these ideals. He argues that EF should not be the "center" of Ethereum but one node among many with a specific mandate. With limited resources (holding only ~0.16% of all ETH), EF must focus its remaining efforts on long-term, mission-critical activities that wouldn't happen without its push, particularly those reinforcing Ethereum's core CROPS values (Censorship-Resistance, Resilience, Openness, Privacy, Security). This means making hard choices, potentially spinning out even respected projects to attract external capital, and cultivating a distinct cultural stance. The core technical vision is for Ethereum to be "amazing" not by chasing maximal throughput, but by excelling in the CROPS dimension. Key goals include: a provably bug-free Ethereum via AI-assisted formal verification; high-availability chain consensus combining the best of BFT and Bitcoin-style security; and minimization of intermediaries in transaction sending and user experience. These "unreasonable" ambitions aim to make Ethereum profoundly impressive in its core values, which also support ETH as a robust asset. The future EF will be a smaller, more opinionated ship built for longevity and meaningful impact.

链捕手05/25 06:44

Vitalik on the Future of the Ethereum Foundation: A Smaller, More Distinct, but Longer-Lasting Ship

链捕手05/25 06:44

Tech Mogul Gavin Baker's Three Counter-Consensus Calls: Trainium is Undervalued, TSMC is Saving the Market, and Space-Based Computing Will 'Show Its Mettle' Within Two Years

Tech investor Gavin Baker recently shared contrarian views at the Sohn 2026 conference. He argues Amazon's Trainium AI chip is the most undervalued, citing its unique capability for running modern MoE AI models via switched scaleup networks, a feature he says only it and Nvidia's infrastructure possess. He predicts Trainium 3's 2026 impact will mirror TPU's in 2025. Baker believes TSMC's cautious expansion, resisting Nvidia's push for rapid capacity increases, is helping prevent an AI bubble by imposing a real-world physical constraint on supply. On orbital compute, Baker forecasts feasibility will be proven within two years, with space-based data centers gaining meaningful market share by decade's end, potentially disrupting ground-based power and cooling suppliers. Regarding the memory cycle, while historical patterns suggest selling now, Baker compares the current situation to the mid-1990s "true capacity cycle," implying it may still be early. He also expects faster-than-expected AI revenue growth as pricing shifts from subscriptions to pay-per-use models. His core investment philosophy emphasizes reading over management meetings and a lifelong struggle to act on the "sell the losers, keep the winners" principle.

marsbit05/25 06:41

Tech Mogul Gavin Baker's Three Counter-Consensus Calls: Trainium is Undervalued, TSMC is Saving the Market, and Space-Based Computing Will 'Show Its Mettle' Within Two Years

marsbit05/25 06:41

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