# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Volatility

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Volatility", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

A Quick Look at the Latest Portfolio of the 24-Year-Old 'AI Stock God': 60% Allocation Hedges Against Semiconductor Downturn

Summary: The article analyzes the latest 13F filing from "AI stock prodigy" Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund, Situational Awareness LP, for Q1 2026. The fund's holdings surged to $13.7 billion, with a significant 32.5% net inflow. Key portfolio adjustments reveal a dual strategy: * **Hedging Semiconductor Downturn:** Over 60% of the fund's *notional value* is allocated to massive put options on major AI semiconductor and hardware stocks (e.g., NVDA, AVGO, AMD, SMH ETF). This acts as a high-leverage hedge against potential short-term volatility or correction in the chip sector. * **Long-term Bullishness on AI Infrastructure:** Alongside the hedges, the fund maintains and increases core long positions in companies providing critical AI infrastructure. This includes substantial equity stakes in CoreWeave (GPU cloud services), Bloom Energy (on-site power), and various power/electrical/data center firms (KEEL, IREN, etc.). Other notable moves include switching Intel exposure from high-leverage calls to minimal stock, exiting optical networking stocks (LITE, COHR), and taking profits in some positions like Bloom Energy and CoreWeave calls. The analysis concludes that Aschenbrenner is not simply turning bearish on AI. Instead, the strategy reflects a nuanced view: extreme caution toward near-term "chip maker" valuations deemed potentially frothy, coupled with strong conviction in the long-term scarcity and value of the underlying *infrastructure* (power, data centers, cloud capacity) required to sustain the AI boom. The fund is preparing for industry volatility while betting on the next potential bottlenecks in the AI supply chain.

Odaily星球日报05/18 13:30

A Quick Look at the Latest Portfolio of the 24-Year-Old 'AI Stock God': 60% Allocation Hedges Against Semiconductor Downturn

Odaily星球日报05/18 13:30

Nvidia's Wednesday Earnings Night: The Battle That Decides the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here

NVIDIA is set to report its quarterly earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, May 20. This event is widely seen as a crucial test for the current AI-driven bull market. The semiconductor sector is exhibiting severe technical overbought conditions, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) trading approximately 60% above its 200-day moving average—the most extreme deviation since the dot-com bubble peak of 1999/2000. Market sentiment is highly concentrated on a few AI-related stocks, raising concerns about overall market breadth. Analysts highlight a key contradiction: while fundamentals for AI and semiconductors remain strong, significant technical pressures are building. Option market activity reflects this tension. Positions are heavily skewed towards bullish calls, yet there is also notable hedging activity through put options on broad indices and sector ETFs, signaling preparation for potential downside volatility. An unusual pattern of rising stock prices alongside rising implied volatility further underscores the market's expectation for a major move. For NVIDIA specifically, the market's primary focus will be on its forward guidance for the next quarter, which is deemed more critical than the immediate earnings results. Despite a recent seven-day rally adding roughly $1.7 trillion in market cap, historical data shows NVIDIA's stock has often declined the day after its past five earnings reports. The outcome of this report is expected to have a significant ripple effect across the broader technology and semiconductor markets, given NVIDIA's pivotal role.

marsbit05/18 12:02

Nvidia's Wednesday Earnings Night: The Battle That Decides the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here

marsbit05/18 12:02

When Computing Power Becomes Commoditized, How Long Until a GPU Futures Market?

When Compute is Commoditized: How Far Away is a GPU Futures Market? The article explores the potential emergence of a futures market for computing power ("compute"), akin to markets for commodities like oil or electricity. It uses a five-dimension framework to assess the market's maturity for sustaining robust futures trading. **Current Market Assessment (Scorecard):** * **Supply Fragmentation:** 🔴 **Red.** Supply is highly concentrated, dominated by a few hyperscale cloud providers. * **Price Volatility:** 🟢 **Green.** GPU pricing is already highly volatile. * **Physical Settlement Infrastructure:** 🟢 **Green.** Early infrastructure exists at the OTC/broker level. * **Standardization:** 🔴 **Red.** Compute lacks a standardized, tradable unit (e.g., an H100 hour is not uniform). * **Lack of Substitutes:** 🟡 **Yellow.** Vertically integrated players can hedge internally, while others are forced to be long. **Conclusion:** The overall scorecard suggests a robust futures market is premature. The market has volatility and early settlement infrastructure but lacks the necessary supply fragmentation and standardization for large-scale price discovery. Most activity remains OTC. **Key Unanswered Questions & Hypotheses:** The article posits that the market could evolve in the next 1-2 years: 1. **Supply:** May become *moderately more fragmented* due to new cloud providers, cheaper power locations, and demand from long-tail users (e.g., startups running open-source model inference). 2. **Standardization:** Could emerge from the growing **inference** workload (expected to be >65% of AI compute demand by 2029), which has more homogeneous hardware requirements than custom training workloads. Widespread adoption of **open-source model weights** is seen as a key catalyst for democratizing inference and driving infrastructure standardization. 3. **Traded Unit:** The most viable layer for trading is likely the **"chip-instance-hour"** (powered, usable compute time), traded similarly to electricity in regional contracts with spot/futures overlays. Trading at the upstream "chip" layer is unlikely due to supply concentration, while the downstream "token" layer faces challenges due to lack of uniformity across AI models.

链捕手05/18 09:04

When Computing Power Becomes Commoditized, How Long Until a GPU Futures Market?

链捕手05/18 09:04

BTC on a Roller Coaster, HYPE Hits New Highs | Guest Analysis

**Market Analysis: BTC Volatility and HYPE's New Highs** This week, markets experienced significant volatility. Macro pressures intensified with a bond market sell-off, rising rate hike expectations, and oil surpassing $110. Bitcoin (BTC) broke below $78K and is currently testing a critical range. The core debate centers on the nature of BTC's rally from its February low: Is it the start of a new uptrend (Path 1: bullish) or merely a B-wave rally within a larger monthly corrective structure (Path 2: bearish)? The outcome of the battle in the $78,500-$79,500 zone is key this week. * **For BTC:** * **Mid-term:** Maintain a neutral, cash position. * **Short-term:** Two contingency plans with ≤30% position size and strict stop-losses: * **Plan A (Bearish):** Sell if price rebounds but faces resistance in the $78,500-$79,500 zone. * **Plan B (Bearish):** Sell if price convincingly breaks below the $73,500-$75,000 support. * A break above $90,000-$93,100 would strongly favor the bullish Path 1 scenario. * **For HYPE:** HYPE continues its independent rally, hitting new highs with over 10% gains this week. The trend remains bullish as long as price holds above the key support at $38.41. * **Short-term Strategies (≤30% position):** * **Plan A (Bullish):** Buy on a confirmed break above $45.76. * **Plan B (Bearish):** Sell short on a confirmed break below $45.76. * **Plan C (Bullish):** Buy on a pullback finding support near $38.41. **Trade Review:** Last week, a disciplined 1x leveraged BTC long trade at $79,812, based on model signals, was closed at $81,426 for a ~2.02% profit. **Important:** Market conditions change rapidly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trade with caution and proper risk management.

marsbit05/18 06:32

BTC on a Roller Coaster, HYPE Hits New Highs | Guest Analysis

marsbit05/18 06:32

Bitcoin Slump Forces Metaplanet Into $728M Quarterly Loss

Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed company, reported an ordinary loss of approximately $728 million for the first quarter of 2026. This significant loss was driven by non-cash valuation markdowns on its Bitcoin holdings, as the price of BTC fell about 24% during the period. Despite the loss, the company aggressively increased its Bitcoin treasury to 40,177 BTC, making it the world's third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. It funded these purchases partly through a Bitcoin-collateralized credit facility. In contrast to the bottom-line loss, Metaplanet's operating performance was strong. It reported Q1 operating income of about $14.38 million on net sales of $19.5 million, achieving a 73.6% operating margin. Revenue more than tripled year-over-year, primarily from its Bitcoin Income Generation unit. The company's preferred performance metric, Bitcoin per diluted share, increased by 2.8% for the quarter. Metaplanet maintained its full-year 2026 sales and operating profit guidance but did not provide net income guidance due to Bitcoin price sensitivity.

bitcoinist05/15 08:02

Bitcoin Slump Forces Metaplanet Into $728M Quarterly Loss

bitcoinist05/15 08:02

Bitcoin Settles Under $80K as Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

Bitcoin remained below $80,000 on Thursday, trading near $79,800 and still under its weekly open price of $82,500, as market sentiment turned cautious. The crypto market was muted, with altcoins posting steep losses. A 6% rise in the U.S. Producer Price Index, hitting its highest annual level since 2022, fueled inflation fears and pressured risk assets. The Altcoin Season indicator fell from 50 to 43 out of 100, reflecting a shift to risk-off sentiment. Market data showed increased activity with 24-hour futures volume up 14%, but open interest fell 2% to $133 billion, indicating position unwinding. Total market liquidations surged 68% to around $400 million, predominantly from long positions. For Bitcoin specifically, $102 million of its $117 million in liquidations were longs, suggesting the market was overly positioned for a bullish breakout above the key $82,000 resistance (200-day moving average). Global political tensions, specifically pointed remarks from China's leader regarding Taiwan during a meeting with former U.S. President Trump, further shook risk sentiment, contributing to declines in Asian stocks and crypto. Traders are now watching the $78,000 level as Bitcoin's next crucial support. Among major altcoins, Solana saw significant losses, while Dogecoin was a rare gainer. The report also noted massive outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are shaking market momentum.

TheNewsCrypto05/14 12:32

Bitcoin Settles Under $80K as Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

TheNewsCrypto05/14 12:32

IBIT Options Metrics Live on Glassnode

Glassnode has expanded its institutional-grade options analytics to include BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. This development signifies Bitcoin's maturation within traditional finance, as options represent the final layer of a mature financial market, requiring deep liquidity and sophisticated risk management. IBIT options enable asset managers to hedge, traders to access Bitcoin-linked volatility, and analysts to gauge institutional positioning. A key insight is the divergence between IBIT and crypto-native venues like Deribit. For instance, as of May 5, IBIT's 1-month options skew showed a stronger preference for downside protection compared to Deribit's, indicating differing risk appetites between traditional and crypto-native participants. The new metrics suite provides over 40 data points, including open interest, volume, max pain, ATM implied volatility across tenors, and proprietary skew analytics like the IBIT Skew Index. These tools allow professionals to measure TradFi Bitcoin sentiment, compare institutional and crypto-native market views, monitor hedging pressure, and track volatility risk. IBIT options data is becoming a crucial signal for understanding Bitcoin's integration into global portfolios and institutional risk frameworks.

insights.glassnode05/14 11:38

insights.glassnode05/14 11:38

Buying BTC is Not as Good as Buying Nasdaq, and This Statement Has an Expiration Date

The article, titled "Investing in Bitcoin Has an Expiration Date", discusses the recent narrative on social media that investing in U.S. tech stocks (like the Nasdaq 100) has been far superior to investing in Bitcoin. This sentiment is fueled by performance comparisons showing the Nasdaq 100 significantly outperforming Bitcoin over a specific five-year window starting in late 2021. However, the author argues that such comparisons are highly sensitive to the chosen timeframe. By shifting the starting point to other key market moments—like the COVID-19 bottom (March 2020), the FTX collapse bottom (November 2022), or the pre-Bitcoin ETF approval period (January 2024)—Bitcoin's returns often match or dramatically exceed those of the Nasdaq 100. The popular Reddit chart essentially cherry-picks a period that started near a Bitcoin cycle high and just before the massive AI-driven rally in tech stocks. The core difference lies in their asset structures. The Nasdaq 100, backed by corporate earnings, exhibits a steadier long-term upward trend. Bitcoin is a highly cyclical asset with extreme volatility, where returns are drastically different depending on where in its bull/bear cycle an investment is made. The article notes Bitcoin often acts like a leveraged version of the S&P 500, magnifying both gains and losses. Currently, Bitcoin is in a "cyclically undervalued zone," having corrected ~37% from its October 2025 peak while the Nasdaq hits new highs. Historically, peak narratives about stocks beating Bitcoin have often coincided with Bitcoin nearing cyclical lows, as seen before its major rally from late 2022. The conclusion is that declaring one asset permanently superior to another is statistically flawed; performance is entirely dependent on timing. The real challenge for investors is not picking the "better" asset, but mastering entry and exit timing.

marsbit05/14 08:34

Buying BTC is Not as Good as Buying Nasdaq, and This Statement Has an Expiration Date

marsbit05/14 08:34

Bitcoin at $80,000: Recovery Clear, But Bullish Conviction Lacking

Bitcoin has reclaimed $80K, supported by renewed US ETF inflows, spot buying activity, and a constructive shift in trader positioning. The relative unrealized loss metric has compressed sharply from its February peak, suggesting the sell-off was a shallow correction rather than a deep bear market. However, the recovery lacks the conviction of prior bull cycles, as evidenced by net capital inflows ($2.8B/month) remaining well below the $10B+ monthly thresholds seen in previous major uptrends. Key technical levels show support near $76.9K and resistance around $86.9K. Derivatives markets signal calmer conditions, with implied volatility compressing and skew normalizing, indicating reduced demand for downside protection. While market structure is improving, sustained movement above the current supply zone will likely require stronger spot demand and deeper capital rotation.

marsbit05/14 07:52

Bitcoin at $80,000: Recovery Clear, But Bullish Conviction Lacking

marsbit05/14 07:52

The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over

Crypto analyst Bee outlines three Bitcoin rules to identify the end of the bear market: it lasts at least 350 days, the bottom never forms without touching the 350-day moving average (MA 350), and the price always drops more than expected. Based on these, he argues the current bear market is not over, projecting a potential drop to around $46,000 to tag the MA 350 at $47,000 before a true bottom forms. Despite a recent rally above $82,000, Bitcoin struggles to hold $80,000 amid hot CPI data and stalled U.S.-Iran talks, with Bee expecting another downtrend. Another analyst, Colin, is more open to the cycle bottom being in than a month ago but still anticipates a retest of the $60,000-$70,000 range lows later this year. Alternatively, he notes that if the bottom isn't in, prolonged sideways trading reduces the odds of a significantly lower floor. Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,200.

bitcoinist05/13 22:33

The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over