# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Volatility

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Volatility", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom?

A crypto analyst's six-step framework, based on the 2021 market cycle, suggests Bitcoin is approaching a critical phase. According to Merlijn The Trader, BTC has already completed the distribution, small consolidation, and redistribution phases. The next projected step is a significant price crash into an accumulation range between $45,000 and $59,000, representing a potential decline of 24% to 42% from current levels near $77,500. However, a key condition exists: if Bitcoin can maintain a weekly close above the $78,000 level, this deeper correction phase could be skipped entirely, allowing the cycle to advance directly toward re-accumulation and a potential future rally.

bitcoinist05/21 01:31

The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom?

bitcoinist05/21 01:31

XRP Whales Have Just Set An 8-Year Record, Is This The Start Of The Next Bull Run?

Large XRP holders, or "whales," have accumulated a record 68.5% of the token's circulating supply, an eight-year high according to Santiment data. This aggressive buying is reportedly absorbing supply from exchanges. Analysts suggest this concentration could lead to a thin sell-side, potentially setting the stage for a major price breakout if XRP can decisively close above its current trading range of $1.29-$1.50. Market expert Ali Martinez identifies this as a key compression zone; a break above $1.50 could trigger a rally toward $1.80, while a close below $1.29 might invalidate the bullish structure.

bitcoinist05/20 21:02

XRP Whales Have Just Set An 8-Year Record, Is This The Start Of The Next Bull Run?

bitcoinist05/20 21:02

Bitcoin Holds Above $77K as Investors Search for Bottom Signal

Following a failed attempt to surpass $83,000 last week, the cryptocurrency market was subdued on Wednesday, with Bitcoin struggling to hold key support. The leading cryptocurrency traded around $77,400, up 0.7% on the day. Market sentiment was lifted by reduced geopolitical uncertainty after a US Senate vote to limit presidential war authority regarding Iran, alongside declines in oil and Treasury yields. Attention also turned to upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Analysts point to on-chain data, particularly the stabilization of Bitcoin's Realized Cap—a measure of the aggregate cost basis of all coins—as a potential signal that the worst of the recent decline may be over. After falling sharply from its peak, this indicator is showing signs of forming a base, reminiscent of behavior at the 2022 bear market lows. While a definitive market bottom is uncertain, the recovery above $77,000 and supportive metrics suggest the current downturn's most severe phase could have passed.

TheNewsCrypto05/20 12:43

Bitcoin Holds Above $77K as Investors Search for Bottom Signal

TheNewsCrypto05/20 12:43

Why Are the Most Believers in AGI Buying NVIDIA Put Options?

The article analyzes the significant, market-moving 13F filing for Q1 2026 by Situational Awareness LP (SALP), a fund managed by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. While Aschenbrenner is a prominent believer in the accelerated arrival of AGI and has built the fund as a focused bet on AI infrastructure, the filing revealed large new put option positions (totaling billions in notional value) on key AI/semiconductor names like Nvidia, SMH ETF, Broadcom, and AMD. The article argues this is not a bearish turn on AI but a sophisticated hedging strategy. Given the macro backdrop in late March (rising oil prices, inflation concerns, higher-for-longer interest rates), the fund is managing volatility in its high-beta, high-valuation portfolio of AI infrastructure plays (like Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, Core Scientific). The puts act as "insurance" against a potential systemic pullback in the AI trade. Simultaneously, SALP maintained or added to core long positions in companies tied to power, data centers, compute, and storage—the "bottlenecks" expected to capture AI capital spending. It trimmed or exited some Q1 winners (e.g., Lumentum) and reduced leverage (e.g., selling CoreWeave calls), suggesting a rotation from crowded, high-momentum trades towards assets with clearer long-term fundamental pathways. The key takeaway is an evolution in the AI investment theme: from a broad, linear rally to a more discerning, "show-me-the-money" phase. The focus shifts from simply buying the AI narrative to identifying companies that can convert capex into tangible revenue, while actively managing portfolio risk in a volatile macro environment. The strategy reflects a move from unilateral bullishness to "offense with defense."

marsbit05/20 12:23

Why Are the Most Believers in AGI Buying NVIDIA Put Options?

marsbit05/20 12:23

$100/Month in Bitcoin Since 2015 Would Have Turned $13,700 Into $632,000, Coinbird Analysis Shows

Coinbird analysis shows that disciplined monthly Bitcoin investments since 2015 would have yielded extraordinary returns. A $100/month Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) plan starting in January 2015 would have resulted in 137 purchases totaling $13,700. As of May 2026, this would have accumulated 8.219 BTC worth approximately $632,315, a +4,515% return, with an average acquisition cost of $1,667 per BTC. However, the popular "just DCA" narrative oversimplifies reality. While DCA starting near the May 2021 peak still returned +84.34% by May 2026 (outperforming a lump-sum investment's +43% in that specific period), lump-sum investing actually beat DCA in tested 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year scenarios. The DCA advantage typically emerged only after a full market crash-and-recovery cycle, highlighting its dependence on start date and market conditions. Critically, even long-term DCA investors endured severe volatility, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -76.72% during the 2022 bear market, underscoring the psychological difficulty of the strategy. The findings, based on Coinbird's DCA Calculator using historical price data, demonstrate that while automated buying through market cycles can produce significant long-term results, it does not eliminate risk or the challenge of holding through major declines.

TheNewsCrypto05/19 12:51

$100/Month in Bitcoin Since 2015 Would Have Turned $13,700 Into $632,000, Coinbird Analysis Shows

TheNewsCrypto05/19 12:51

Nvidia's Wednesday 'Big Test': The Battle That Will Determine the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here!

NVIDIA Faces Key AI Bull Market Test with Wednesday Earnings Report NVIDIA is set to release its quarterly earnings after the market close on Wednesday, May 20th (US Eastern Time). This report is seen as a critical stress test for the current AI-driven bull market cycle. The semiconductor sector is technically severely overbought, with extremely bullish options positioning. The rare signal of stock prices and implied volatility rising simultaneously indicates significantly amplified two-way risk around this earnings event. The core tension identified by analysts is strong fundamental demand for AI versus mounting technical pressures. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is trading approximately 60% above its 200-day moving average, a deviation not seen since the peak of the dot-com bubble in 1999/2000. While NVIDIA's current quarter revenue is expected to beat estimates by a substantial margin, market focus is intensely on the guidance for the next quarter. Historically, NVIDIA's stock has frequently declined on the day following its last five earnings reports. The options market presents contradictory signals: extreme bullish call skew persists, yet there is notable activity in tail-risk hedging via put options on broader indices and semiconductor ETFs. This suggests traders are chasing gains while simultaneously preparing for potential sharp volatility. A broader market concern is narrowing breadth. Despite the S&P 500's YTD gain, only about half of its constituents are positive, with leadership heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA. Analysts question whether this reflects market health or a "funding source" effect, where money flows out of lagging sectors into the AI trade. The earnings outcome and, crucially, the forward guidance will test the market's conviction in the AI compute super-cycle thesis. Given NVIDIA's high correlation with the semiconductor and broader tech sector, its results are poised to trigger widespread market moves in either direction.

marsbit05/19 11:43

Nvidia's Wednesday 'Big Test': The Battle That Will Determine the Fate of the AI Bull Market is Here!

marsbit05/19 11:43

Chat with the Godfather of Crypto: $60k Bitcoin is Definitely Not the Bottom, the Real 'Capitulation Moment' is in October

**Summary: Interview with "Crypto Godfather" Michael Terpin on Bitcoin Outlook** Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Ventures and author of "Bitcoin Supercycle," discusses his market views in a podcast. He argues that Bitcoin's price around $60K is likely not the cycle bottom, with odds favoring a further decline to the $48K–$57K range, potentially bottoming in October. Key points include: * **Saylor & STRC:** He clarifies Michael Saylor's recent statement about potentially selling Bitcoin to pay dividends is driven by STRC's retail/ hybrid structure requiring an "escape valve," not a strategic shift. Saylor's large-scale OTC purchases create a floor for Bitcoin's price. * **October Bottom Thesis:** Terpin cites historical patterns (e.g., ~1-year bear markets, Coin Days Destroyed indicator, 23/35-month cycles) pointing to an October bottom. Current selling pressure is largely from leveraged retail liquidations, not whales. * **Cycle Dynamics:** He notes diminishing returns per cycle (e.g., 3000x, 100x, 30x, ~8x) and converging drawdowns. The long-term $1M Bitcoin target by 2033 remains. * **Risks & Narratives:** The real near-term "FTX moment" risk is an advanced AI model attacking a major Ethereum smart contract (e.g., Lido), not quantum computing breaking Bitcoin soon. AI tokens are expected to outperform Bitcoin in the next three years, with profits potentially flowing back into BTC. * **Market Mechanics:** He comments on reported systematic selling by firms like Jane Street and how Wall Street tactics (OTC buying, public market shorting) now influence Bitcoin. * **Supercycle & Design:** Terpin believes Satoshi intentionally aligned Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle with US election years, influencing global liquidity cycles. He discusses Bitcoin's role in a potential new commodity supercycle driven by currency debasement.

marsbit05/19 01:13

Chat with the Godfather of Crypto: $60k Bitcoin is Definitely Not the Bottom, the Real 'Capitulation Moment' is in October

marsbit05/19 01:13

Bitcoin Slides to Three-Week Low Under $77K Amid Bear Dominance

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to a three-week low below $77,000, erasing gains made since early May. This decline follows a recent surge to 13-week highs above $83,000, driven by optimism around US crypto regulation and strong ETF inflows. Over $600 million in long positions were liquidated in the past day, with $190 million from Bitcoin. Analysts point to a negative technical divergence as BTC faced resistance above $82,000. Key support is seen at $76,000; a break below could target the $71,000-$73,000 zone or even the $65,000 local low. Geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran relations and oil supply concerns, contributed to broader market volatility.

TheNewsCrypto05/18 14:36

Bitcoin Slides to Three-Week Low Under $77K Amid Bear Dominance

TheNewsCrypto05/18 14:36

BTC Market Pulse: Week 21

The Bitcoin market in Week 21 shows a softening structure with mixed signals across segments. Spot market activity increased (volume +4.2%) but was driven by selling pressure, as indicated by a sharp -848.7% drop in Spot CVD. Futures markets exhibit caution, with open interest declining -2.9%, yet a +136.6% surge in long-side funding hints at bullish positioning. This is contrasted by a severe -278.7% drop in Perpetual CVD, pointing to dominant sell-side pressure. Options traders are positioning for downside risk, with the 25-Delta Skew rising +42.75%. Open interest and volatility spread also grew, signaling anticipation of higher price swings. Traditional finance sentiment weakened, with ETF netflows deteriorating and MVRV falling -6.1%, though ETF trade volume rose +7.0%. On-chain metrics show cooling liquidity and profitability, with NUPL and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio weakening sharply. However, long-term holder dominance continues to build, providing underlying market resilience amid fading euphoria and increasingly defensive positioning.

insights.glassnode05/18 14:09

insights.glassnode05/18 14:09

A Quick Look at the Latest Moves of the 24-Year-Old 'AI Stock God': Sixty Percent of the Portfolio Hedging Against Semiconductor Downturn

24-year-old AI investing prodigy Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund, Situational Awareness LP, has disclosed its Q1 2026 13F holdings. The fund's total portfolio nominal value surged 148% to $13.7 billion, driven by both investment gains and significant new capital inflows. The most striking move was the establishment of massive short-term hedges against potential volatility in the AI semiconductor sector. Over 60% of the fund's nominal exposure is now in put options (bets on declines) targeting major AI hardware stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), Broadcom (AVGO), and AMD. Notably, the fund also holds call options (bets on rises) on some names like Micron (MU) and TSMC, indicating it expects extreme price swings in these stocks. Alongside these hedges, the fund remains a long-term bull on AI infrastructure. It significantly increased its equity stakes in companies like GPU cloud provider CoreWeave (CRWV) and added to positions in power/energy infrastructure firms like Bloom Energy (BE), albeit after taking substantial profits on the latter. The fund also exited positions in optical communication hardware (LITE, COHR) and reduced leverage by clearing out large call option positions on Intel and CoreWeave. In essence, the portfolio reflects a dual strategy: cautious on near-term semiconductor valuations and potential over-extension, while maintaining a conviction that the true long-term bottlenecks and value will be in the underlying infrastructure powering the AI revolution—such as energy, data centers, and compute availability.

marsbit05/18 13:31

A Quick Look at the Latest Moves of the 24-Year-Old 'AI Stock God': Sixty Percent of the Portfolio Hedging Against Semiconductor Downturn