# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant players in the prediction market industry, collectively holding 79% market share. Polymarket, crypto-native and globally focused, leads in notional volume ($56.07B) and excels in political and macro markets. Kalshi, CFTC-licensed and US-centric, follows closely ($44.71B) and dominates sports betting, which drives 89% of its revenue. Their competition spans capital raises, marketing, user acquisition, and regulatory strategy. Kalshi leverages traditional channels like Robinhood and TV ads, while Polymarket builds a developer ecosystem and uses crypto-style referral programs. Key challenges remain: Kalshi faces potential competition from its own partners (e.g., Robinhood building its own exchange) and state-level lawsuits. Polymarket, after operating fee-free, has begun charging fees—a critical test for its revenue model. The battle reflects a broader conflict: whether the future of information markets belongs to crypto or traditional finance. Both are expanding into each other’s strengths—Polymarket into US sports, Kalshi into political media integration. The industry is still young, and the ultimate winner is yet to be determined.

marsbit02/26 05:11

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

marsbit02/26 05:11

AI Era's 'Scarce Assets'? Goldman Sachs: HALO—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

In the AI era, market focus is shifting from scalable, light-asset business models to valuing hard-to-replicate physical assets and infrastructure, a trend Goldman Sachs terms "HALO" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). This reflects a repricing of scarcity driven by higher real interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain restructuring, and massive AI-driven capital expenditure. HALO assets—such as power grids, pipelines, utilities, and critical industrial capacity—have high replication barriers (cost, regulation, engineering complexity) and remain economically durable across technology cycles. Meanwhile, AI is undermining the profitability and terminal value of some light-asset sectors (e.g., software, IT services) by reducing information costs and increasing competition. Notably, major tech firms are now becoming large-scale capital spenders, with projected Capex of $1.5 trillion from 2023-2026—surpassing their cumulative historical investment. Since 2025, Goldman’s heavy-asset portfolio (GSSTCAPI) has outperformed its light-asset counterpart (GSSTCAPL) by 35%, driven by valuation rerating rather than broad de-rating of light assets. Macro factors support this shift: higher rates compress valuations of long-duration growth stocks, while manufacturing and capex cycles benefit heavy-asset firms. Earnings momentum is also stronger for heavy-asset companies, with higher expected CAGR (14% vs. 10%) and improving ROE. Despite recent gains, institutional positioning remains underweight value/heavy-asset stocks, suggesting further potential for outperformance.

marsbit02/25 08:50

AI Era's 'Scarce Assets'? Goldman Sachs: HALO—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

marsbit02/25 08:50

February's Major Adjustment: Is the Crypto Market Bottoming Out?

February witnessed a significant crypto market downturn, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $61,000, marking one of the worst starts to a year in over a decade. The sell-off was driven by risk aversion, declining liquidity, and ongoing de-leveraging rather than a fundamental collapse in value. Key indicators, such as the negative Coinbase Premium Index and substantial outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, reflected weakened institutional demand and persistent selling pressure, particularly in the U.S. market. Market liquidity thinning exacerbated volatility, with order book depth significantly reduced. Stablecoin growth also stalled, indicating a pause in new capital inflow rather than a broad exodus. Despite the correction, structural advancements continued, exemplified by Hyperliquid’s expansion into real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contracts—such as commodities and equities—showcasing deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance. Bitcoin’s decline approached its realized price, suggesting the market is entering a potential accumulation phase. While valuation metrics like MVRZ indicate undervaluation, they haven’t reached historical bear-market extremes. The ongoing institutional adoption of DeFi infrastructure and regulatory developments, like CME’s 24/7 crypto futures, highlight continued maturation beneath surface volatility. In summary, February’s downturn was largely a liquidity and risk-sentiment stress test. The market’s foundation remains intact, with catalysts like regulatory clarity and capital flow reversal poised to influence future recovery.

marsbit02/25 07:27

February's Major Adjustment: Is the Crypto Market Bottoming Out?

marsbit02/25 07:27

Will Espresso [ESP] hit $1B valuation? Korean listings spark 80% explosion

Espresso (ESP) surged 80% in 24 hours to $0.173, driven by aggressive capital inflows following its listings on major Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb. The breakout was supported by explosive volume of $881M and record Open Interest of $56.03M, indicating strong speculative and spot demand. Historically, Korean listings fuel extended rallies, and with support from Binance and Coinbase, the project's infrastructure narrative gained significant momentum. This capital rotation suggests a potential path toward a $1B valuation, though sustainability depends on continued demand and stable liquidity.

ambcrypto02/25 02:03

Will Espresso [ESP] hit $1B valuation? Korean listings spark 80% explosion

ambcrypto02/25 02:03

When Dreamers Start Doing the Math: How Reality Interrupted OpenAI's $500 Billion Stargate?

OpenAI's ambitious $500 billion "Stargate" data center project has stalled due to financing challenges and internal disagreements with partners SoftBank and Oracle. After lenders rejected OpenAI's request for billions to build its own data centers—citing unproven business models and cash burn concerns—the company was forced to scale back its plans. It has now shifted from owning infrastructure to leasing capacity, signing major deals with Oracle and others. OpenAI has also slashed its 2030 computing expenditure target by 57%, from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion, and projects $280 billion in revenue by 2030. Despite having over 900 million users, only about 5% pay for ChatGPT, and competition is intensifying. Facing high costs and slower monetization, OpenAI is prioritizing financial sustainability over grand visions.

比推02/24 14:06

When Dreamers Start Doing the Math: How Reality Interrupted OpenAI's $500 Billion Stargate?

比推02/24 14:06

Four Years of Transformation: A Deep Dive into the Evolution of Coinbase's Business Model

Coinbase has undergone a significant business transformation from 2021 to 2025, shifting from heavy reliance on retail trading revenue (88% in 2021) to a more diversified model. By 2025, retail trading contributed only 48% of total revenue, while subscription and service revenue grew to 41% of total revenue—driven largely by stablecoin income (19% of total revenue, via the Circle partnership), staking, and Coinbase One subscriptions. Total revenue in 2025 increased by 9.4% year-over-year but remains 6.4% below the 2021 peak. Transaction revenue fell 40% compared to 2021. The company improved operational efficiency, reducing costs by 45% in 2023 through layoffs and restructuring, resulting in a 21% operating margin in 2025. Coinbase's balance sheet is strong with $11.3 billion in cash, minimal debt cost (~1% interest), and significant crypto holdings. However, it faces risks including competition, regulation, market cyclicality, interest rate sensitivity, and concentration in its Circle partnership. Compared to Robinhood, Coinbase trades at a lower valuation multiple despite a stronger balance sheet, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term crypto investors.

比推02/20 19:53

Four Years of Transformation: A Deep Dive into the Evolution of Coinbase's Business Model

比推02/20 19:53

Awkward! AI Titans Refuse Handshake... What Have Crypto KOLs Been Discussing in the Past 24 Hours?

An article titled "Awkward! AI Titans Refuse Handshake... What Were Crypto KOLs Discussing in the Past 24 Hours?" covers several trending topics in the crypto and AI space. During an AI summit in India, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, former colleagues turned rivals, refused to hold hands during a group photo with Prime Minister Modi, sparking online amusement and commentary about their strained relationship. OpenAI's employee educational background data shows Stanford University leads with 230 employees, followed by Berkeley, MIT, and Carnegie Mellon. Chinese institutions Tsinghua and Peking University also appear but with significantly lower numbers. OpenAI is reportedly finalizing a new funding round aiming to raise $100 billion, which would value the company at $830 billion. SoftBank may lead with $30 billion, while Amazon, NVIDIA, and Microsoft are also potential investors. The concept of "Web4.0" is emerging, with some startups claiming to build self-sustaining AI agents that can earn and improve autonomously. However, critics warn this could devolve into a new form of Ponzi scheme, as these agents currently rely heavily on token speculation rather than genuine utility. Lastly, the article mentions popular meme coins, comparing their investment potential to buying lottery tickets, and includes a nostalgic look at past celebrity meme coins. The piece concludes with links to the source's Twitter and Telegram channels.

比推02/20 01:26

Awkward! AI Titans Refuse Handshake... What Have Crypto KOLs Been Discussing in the Past 24 Hours?

比推02/20 01:26

If Ozak AI Follows Its Current Trajectory, 2026–2028 Could Mark the Most Profitable Window for Early Holders

As attention in the crypto market shifts from short-term speculation to long-term positioning, analysts are increasingly focused on when value creation will occur. For Ozak AI, forecasts suggest the 2026–2028 period could be the most profitable window for early holders if the project maintains its current growth path. This outlook is based on roadmap timing, AI-sector expansion cycles, and historical trends in crypto infrastructure adoption. Analysts believe the next major crypto expansion will be driven by functional AI infrastructure, with adoption accelerating from 2026 and peaking toward 2028. Ozak AI’s roadmap is aligned with this timeline, featuring progressive deployment of AI-native infrastructure like Prediction Agents, Ozak Stream Network, EigenLayer AVS integration, Arbitrum Orbit, and Data Vaults. By mid-to-late 2026, these components are expected to operate at scale, transitioning the platform into a usage-driven ecosystem. Early holders benefit from low entry valuations, exposure before full deployment, and positioning ahead of peak AI-driven demand. Macro trends also support this thesis, including growing enterprise interest in decentralized AI, regulatory shifts toward transparent systems, and accelerating demand for real-time data intelligence. Valuation models indicate the most significant expansion may occur when AI infrastructure becomes indispensable, making early positioning a long-duration strategy rather than a short-term trade. In summary, if execution continues as planned, 2026–2028 could define Ozak AI’s most profitable phase for early holders, driven by converging technology, timing, and sector momentum.

TheNewsCrypto02/17 12:52

If Ozak AI Follows Its Current Trajectory, 2026–2028 Could Mark the Most Profitable Window for Early Holders

TheNewsCrypto02/17 12:52

Fintech vs. DeFi: Which Financial System Is More Competitive?

The article presents a comparative analysis between Fintech and DeFi (Decentralized Finance) across key metrics like revenue, scale, user numbers, and take rates. It highlights that DeFi protocols are rapidly closing the gap with traditional Fintech in terms of transaction volume, user base, and asset scale. For instance, Hyperliquid’s trading volume reached over 50% of Robinhood’s, Aave’s lending volume surpassed Klarna’s, and stablecoin payment channels are growing significantly faster than traditional payment processors. However, DeFi captures far less economic value due to substantially lower take rates. The piece concludes that convergence is inevitable, posing the central question: Will crypto learn to build tollbooths (monetization), or will Fintech adopt open, decentralized rails? The answer likely involves both trends evolving simultaneously.

marsbit02/17 06:56

Fintech vs. DeFi: Which Financial System Is More Competitive?

marsbit02/17 06:56

Ethereum Repricing: From Rollup-Centric to 'Security Settlement Layer'

Ethereum is undergoing a fundamental strategic shift, moving from a "Rollup-Centric" scaling model to establishing itself as a global "Security Settlement Layer." This pivot, signaled by Vitalik Buterin's reflections, acknowledges the slower-than-expected decentralization of Layer 2s (L2s) and the increasing throughput of the mainnet (L1). The core value proposition is no longer just scalability but also security, neutrality, and predictability. Key changes include: * **L1-First Paradigm:** The original assumption that L2s would be the primary scaling solution is fading as L1's capacity grows. * **L2s as a Trust Spectrum:** L2s are now viewed as a spectrum of networks with varying levels of trust and security, rather than uniform "branded shards" of Ethereum. * **Value Shift to "Settlement Sovereignty":** ETH's value is increasingly derived from its role as the foundational asset and secure settlement layer for the entire ecosystem, not just transaction fees. * **Protocol-Integrated Scaling:** Scaling efforts are focusing more on native, protocol-level solutions for verification and security, potentially reshaping the L1-L2 relationship. * **Valuation Model Restructuring:** The valuation framework for ETH is shifting from a cash-flow model (emphasizing fees) to an asset premium model (emphasizing security and institutional credibility). The article draws a historical analogy to the U.S. Constitution's creation, framing Ethereum's evolution as a move from a confederation of fragmented L2 "states" to a unified "digital nation" with L1 at its core, enforcing standards and capturing value through settlement. A new valuation model is proposed, weighting four key value quadrants: Security/Settlement Layer (45%), Monetary Properties (35%), Platform/Network Effects (10%), and Protocol Revenue (10%). This model dynamically adapts to macro conditions. The path to an "institutional second curve" is also explored, where ETH transitions from a speculative asset to a yield-generating, utility-based asset for traditional finance, further solidifying its long-term value foundation.

marsbit02/17 04:06