# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Here’s How Many Transactions XRP Must Process To Reach A $2,000 Price Tag

Crypto analyst Rob Cunningham outlines the conditions for XRP to reach a $2,000 valuation, emphasizing it would need to process sovereign-scale settlement volumes. He states XRP must handle $200 trillion in value and up to $2 quadrillion in daily transactions at that price, effectively eliminating liquidity stress and making the cost of capital near zero. Cunningham explains that beyond the $1,500–$3,000 range, XRP would be valued based on functional utility rather than conventional pricing, repricing rapidly like infrastructure. He predicts a three-phase acceleration pattern driven by regulatory clarity, future value compression, and institutional adoption, comparing XRP’s potential rise to historic economic shifts such as oil discoveries.

bitcoinist12/24 06:35

Lighter TGE Imminent: A Complete Overview of the Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing

An article titled "Lighter is about to TGE: A Complete Overview of the Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing" discusses the imminent Token Generation Event (TGE) for the Lighter (LIT) project. Key developments include its addition to Coinbase's listing roadmap, a deadline for airdrop address registration, and the launch of pre-launch perpetual contracts on Binance. On-chain data shows the transfer of 250 million LIT (25% of total supply) to a new address, strongly hinting at an upcoming airdrop. Market predictions on Polymarket suggest the TGE is most likely to occur around December 29th. Lighter is a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum L2, leading its sector with $232.3B in trading volume over the past 30 days and a TVL exceeding $1.4B. Its core philosophy is to combine CEX speed with DEX security, opting for a modular L2 approach integrated with Ethereum rather than building an independent L1. Pre-launch trading on Binance values LIT at approximately $3.2, giving Lighter a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of around $3.2 billion. Analyst predictions for the FDV post-TGE range from a bear case of $1.5B ($1.5 per token) to a bull case of $12.5B ($12.5 per token). The article concludes by cautioning users that airdrop rewards are not final until distributed, as the team is currently analyzing data to remove points earned by sybil addresses and wash trading.

marsbit12/24 04:46

Lighter TGE Imminent: Full Overview of Timeline, On-Chain Signals, and Market Pricing

Lighter, a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum L2, is expected to undergo its Token Generation Event (TGE) soon, with market speculation pointing to a window between December 24 and January 1. Key signals include its recent addition to Coinbase's listing roadmap, a Binance perpetual futures pre-market listing, and on-chain movements of 250 million LIT tokens (25% of total supply) suspected to be for airdrop distribution. Data from DeFiLlama shows Lighter leading the Perp DEX sector with $232.3B in trading volume over the past 30 days and a TVL exceeding $1.4B. The project distinguishes itself by leveraging Ethereum's ecosystem rather than building an independent L1, aiming to combine CEX efficiency with DEX security. Pre-market trading on Binance values LIT at around $3.2, implying a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $3.2B. Market analysts project a range of potential valuations: a bear case of $1.5B FDV ($1.5 per token), a base case of $3B–$4.2B FDV, and a bullish scenario of $7.5B–$12.5B FDV. Users are advised to monitor official announcements closely, as the team is currently reviewing Sybil and wash-trading activities before final airdrop distribution.

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:18

2025, Ethereum: Life Through Death

By 2025, Ethereum faced an identity crisis, caught between Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative and high-performance competitors like Solana. Regulatory clarity emerged with the U.S. CLARITY Act classifying ETH as a commodity, while the SEC’s "Project Crypto" acknowledged its decentralized nature, allowing staking rewards without securities classification. The 2024 Dencun upgrade, intended to reduce L2 costs via EIP-4844, backfired—L2s thrived but paid minimal fees to L1, crashing Ethereum’s revenue and raising sustainability concerns. The December 2025 Fusaka upgrade addressed this with EIP-7918, tying Blob fees to L1 execution costs, ensuring L2s contribute fairly to L1 revenue. PeerDAS (EIP-7594) expanded data capacity, enabling scalable, low-cost transactions. Ethereum’s new "B2B tax model" reframed its value: L2s handle high-volume, low-value transactions, while L1 provides security and settlement, capturing fees through ETH burns and staking rewards. Analysts projected an 8x increase in ETH burn rates by 2026. Valuation models now combine DCF (discounted cash flow) for protocol revenue and "trustware" pricing for its role in securing high-value assets like RWA (real-world assets), where Ethereum dominates due to its security and decentralization. Despite Solana’s edge in consumer apps, Ethereum solidified its position as the foundation for institutional-grade DeFi and RWA, transitioning into a foundational economic layer for the digital economy.

marsbit12/24 01:27

VC Retrospective 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead

Venture Capital Review 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead The article reflects on the challenging yet transformative year of 2025 for crypto and AI investments. While on-chain financial tools and the machine economy saw significant growth, long-term crypto investors faced a difficult market structure plagued by a "negative prisoner's dilemma," premature token unlocks, and a major market failure in October that triggered industry-wide deleveraging. Despite these setbacks, the value creation in crypto and AI over the past decade has been immense, far outpacing other regions and sectors. The "Magnificent 7" tech giants and crypto assets collectively added trillions in market cap. The key lesson from 2025 is that value accrued to the narratives but to the owners of physical and financial bottlenecks: power, semiconductors, and scarce compute. Public market winners were companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, IREN, and Bloom Energy. In software, value flowed to embedded, "must-have" platforms (e.g., Alphabet, Meta) rather than optional tools. In private markets, foundational AI companies grew rapidly but faced fragility, while value-controlling companies (e.g., Applied Intuition, Anduril) were better positioned. Tokenized networks were the weakest performers, as usage failed to translate into token value capture. The core takeaway is that the market rewarded ownership of choke points and punished projects lacking control over cash flow or compute. For 2026, the investment focus shifts downstream to: (1) machine transaction surfaces (payments, billing, compliance), (2) applied infrastructure with existing budgets, and (3) high-conviction, non-consensus opportunities. The allocation will temporarily favor equity over tokens until market structure issues are resolved. The author concludes that a major shakeout is coming, but it also presents significant opportunity. The need to move beyond collective illusions and focus on real, budget-backed economic activity is paramount.

比推12/23 23:11

The Hidden Realities and Concerns Behind Web3 Unicorn Phantom

The Web3 unicorn Phantom, valued at $3 billion, has navigated a challenging 2025 in the crypto wallet market. While its user base grew to nearly 20 million monthly active users and assets under custody surpassed $25 billion, its market share in embedded swaps plummeted from 10% to just 0.5%, as users migrated to exchange-linked wallets offering lower fees and stronger incentives. Phantom, which started on Solana and expanded multi-chain, remains heavily dependent on the Solana ecosystem, with 97% of its swap transactions occurring there. This has posed risks as Solana's TVL declined over 34% from its peak. In response, Phantom has aggressively pursued new product lines to diversify revenue and usage. Key launches include its native stablecoin CASH, which surpassed $100 million in supply; a Phantom-branded debit card for spending crypto in the U.S.; the acquisition of trading tools like Solsniper; integration of a prediction market with Kalshi; and the release of a free SDK, Phantom Connect, for easier dApp onboarding. CEO Brandon Millman emphasizes focusing on product over token launches or an IPO, aiming to make crypto a tool for everyday payments. However, the path is competitive, with MetaMask having already launched a similar card in more regions. The success of Phantom's debit card and the sustainability of its stablecoin remain to be proven as it battles to define the future of independent non-custodial wallets.

marsbit12/23 12:08

57 Million Massive Token Burn Completed, WBS Enters a New Valuation Range

Websea has announced the large-scale burn of 57 million WBS tokens, drawing significant market attention and triggering a price surge of over 15%. The tokens were burned from unlocked portions of ecosystem, team, foundation, and strategic investment allocations, effectively removing 38% of the locked supply. This brings the total burned WBS to 132.7 million, reducing circulating supply and enhancing long-term scarcity. The move is seen as a structural adjustment following Hony Capital’s strategic investment and reflects Websea’s commitment to long-term ecosystem growth. By verifiably reducing sell pressure, the burn strengthens WBS's value foundation and shifts market expectations toward scarcity-driven appreciation. Beyond the burn, WBS’s value is supported by Websea’s broader growth strategy, including compliance efforts, product expansion, global user acquisition, and institutional backing. The platform is transitioning from a pure exchange to an ecosystem, with WBS evolving into a utility and governance asset. This event marks the beginning of a reevaluation phase for WBS, driven by tangible supply reduction and expanding demand within Websea’s growing financial and social ecosystem.

深潮12/23 11:43

Racing to Be the First Stock: The Substance, Capabilities, and Ambition of China's Largest Independent Model Company

Zhipu AI, China's largest independent large language model (LLM) company by revenue, has passed its listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a valuation of RMB 24.377 billion. Its IPO filing provides the first clear look at the financials of a major Chinese LLM player. From 2022 to 2024, Zhipu's revenue grew at a 130% CAGR, reaching RMB 310 million in 2024. Nearly 85% of its revenue comes from on-premise model deployments for enterprise clients, with the remainder from its MaaS (Model-as-a-Service) platform. Despite rapid revenue growth, the company reported significant adjusted net losses, driven overwhelmingly by R&D expenses which reached RMB 1.59 billion in H1 2025. A major portion of these costs is attributed to computing power, essential for training its flagship models. A key part of Zhipu's strategy is a "land and expand" approach: using strategic price cuts on its MaaS platform to attract a large user base (over 1.2 million enterprise developers) and then converting them into high-value on-premise clients. The release of its powerful open-source base model, GLM-4.5/4.6, which ranks among the top global models in several benchmarks, led to an exponential increase in API calls and token consumption. The company is betting that continued heavy R&D investment is necessary to stay at the forefront of the intensely competitive global AI market. Its leadership believes that possessing a superior base model is the ultimate product and the key to long-term growth, even if it requires substantial short-term losses. As one of the first Chinese LLM firms to file for an IPO, Zhipu's market debut is poised to be a major test for valuing China's independent AI industry.

marsbit12/23 11:13

Palmer Luckey’s Erebor hits $4.3B valuation as regulators advance bank charter

cointelegraph12/22 22:51

Tracking 118 Coins Launched in 2025: 85% Are Below Their Initial Valuation at Launch

An analysis of 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) that occurred in 2025 reveals a significant downturn in post-launch performance. The study compared each token's current fully diluted valuation (FDV) to its valuation at issuance. Key findings show that 84.7% (100 out of 118) of these assets are currently valued below their initial TGE price. This indicates that approximately 4 out of every 5 new tokens are trading at a lower valuation than at launch. The median token experienced a 71% decline in FDV (and a 67% drop in market cap) since its release. Only 15% of the tokens analyzed have maintained a valuation higher than at their TGE. The report concludes that participating in a TGE can no longer be considered a form of "early investment" under these market conditions.

深潮12/22 05:45