# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Q4 Net Loss of $667 Million, Yet Stock Soars 16%, Don't Buy Coinbase Now

Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, with revenue of $1.78 billion falling short of expectations. Despite this, its stock surged 16.46% the next day, reflecting short-term market optimism. However, analysts caution against investing in Coinbase at this time, citing high cyclicality and near-term headwinds. Revenue is split between transaction-based income (56%) and subscription/services (44%). Transaction revenue relies heavily on retail trading spreads, which are under pressure due to declining crypto prices and reduced volatility. Subscription revenue, led by USDC interest income and staking, offers diversification but remains sensitive to interest rates and market conditions. Key debates include whether Coinbase can reduce its dependence on crypto market cycles, the sustainability of stablecoin profits, and the impact of future regulations. While the company holds a dominant position in the U.S. market due to its regulatory compliance and trust, it faces growing competition from decentralized exchanges globally. Analysts project underperformance in 2026, with earnings potentially 14% below consensus due to compressed client assets and trading activity. Although regulatory clarity may benefit Coinbase long-term, it is unlikely to offset immediate financial pressures. Valuation scenarios range from a negative IRR in a bear case to a high IRR in an optimistic rebound, but near-term risks currently outweigh potential returns.

Odaily星球日报02/14 06:03

Q4 Net Loss of $667 Million, Yet Stock Soars 16%, Don't Buy Coinbase Now

Odaily星球日报02/14 06:03

From High Growth to Hard Reality: The Q4 Stress Test for Coinbase and Robinhood

Coinbase and Robinhood faced significant challenges in Q4 2025, revealing their continued heavy dependence on cryptocurrency market cycles despite efforts to diversify. Robinhood reported record annual revenue of $4.5 billion and a net profit of $1.9 billion, with strong growth in traditional trading and options. However, its crypto transaction revenue plummeted 38% year-over-year to $221 million, and app trading volume fell 57% in January 2026. Despite its broader financial offerings, the market still views Robinhood as a Bitcoin-dependent asset, causing its stock to drop 50% from recent highs. Coinbase experienced a steeper decline, with revenue falling 21.6% to $1.78 billion and a net loss of $667 million due to crypto asset depreciation. Retail trading volume collapsed to $59 billion, far below institutional volume of $237 billion. While stablecoin revenue and institutional services provided some support, the sharp drop in high-fee retail activity exposed Coinbase’s vulnerability to crypto market downturns. Both companies illustrate the broader industry issue: declining active users and over-reliance on crypto volatility. Their valuations remain tightly correlated to Bitcoin’s performance. Key takeaways include the necessity of stable revenue streams (like interest and stablecoins), excess infrastructure amid shrinking user demand, and the urgent need for sustainable business models beyond pure crypto speculation. Survival in 2026 will depend on financial resilience rather than growth.

比推02/13 05:43

From High Growth to Hard Reality: The Q4 Stress Test for Coinbase and Robinhood

比推02/13 05:43

Trading Volume Hits New Highs Repeatedly, Why Is Kalshi's Pre-IPO Stock Price Experiencing a Tale of Extremes?

Amidst a declining broader market, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience, with trading activity hitting record highs. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., reached over $9.5 billion in trading volume in January, ranking first in the sector and setting a new monthly record. This has sparked renewed discussions about the fair pre-IPO share price of Kalshi, which is poised to become the "first prediction market stock." Currently, significant price discrepancies exist on crypto-based pre-IPO trading platforms: PreStocks lists Kalshi shares between $364 and $369, while Jarsy shows a price of around $504. In traditional markets, Nasdaq Private Market prices shares at approximately $320, and Hiive at $358. Kalshi completed a Series E funding round last year at a $11 billion valuation. Based on this, the reasonable pre-IPO share price range is estimated to be between $320 and $358. However, considering Kalshi's dominant market share and January volume nearing the entire prediction market's size from October last year, its implied valuation could be at least $15 billion. This would adjust the reasonable share price range to approximately $320–$423. Thus, Jarsy's current pricing appears high, while PreStocks may present arbitrage opportunities. With 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is significant, likely exceeding earlier estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could further drive up its pre-IPO valuation in the future.

比推02/11 15:25

Trading Volume Hits New Highs Repeatedly, Why Is Kalshi's Pre-IPO Stock Price Experiencing a Tale of Extremes?

比推02/11 15:25

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Amidst a recent market downturn, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the US, reached a record single-month trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, making it the sector leader. This surge has sparked renewed interest in pricing its pre-IPO shares. Significant price discrepancies exist across different pre-IPO trading platforms. On PreStocks, Kalshi shares are priced between $364 and $369. On Jarsy, the price is notably higher at around $504. In contrast, traditional private markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive list shares at approximately $320 and $358, respectively. The analysis suggests a reasonable pre-IPO share price range for Kalshi is between $320 and $423. This is based on its last private funding round valuation of $11 billion and an estimated implied valuation of at least $15 billion, supported by its surging trading volume which now nearly equals the entire prediction market's size from October of the previous year. The article concludes that Jarsy's current price appears high, while PreStocks may present a potential arbitrage opportunity. Furthermore, with 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is seen as substantial, potentially exceeding estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could lead to further increases in its pre-IPO valuation.

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

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