# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

OpenAI IPO Market Sounding Meets Cold Reception, How to Convince Investors with an $850 Billion Valuation?

Wall Street investment banks are conducting market soundings for a potential OpenAI IPO, but are encountering a cooler-than-expected reception from public market investors. OpenAI is currently raising funds at an $850 billion valuation, which represents a price-to-sales multiple of 28 times its projected 2026 revenue—far exceeding Nvidia's multiple of about 12. Key investor concerns include OpenAI's own projection that it will not be profitable until at least 2030, requiring continuous capital investment. Prominent investors, including Jim Chanos, question the high valuation, especially compared to profitable and dominant players like Nvidia. Additionally, the rise of well-funded competitor Anthropic, which has a lower projected cost structure and strong enterprise sales, is diverting investor attention and capital. Some investors have indicated they may short OpenAI stock upon its debut, betting that public markets will have limited patience for its long path to profitability.

比推03/10 12:48

OpenAI IPO Market Sounding Meets Cold Reception, How to Convince Investors with an $850 Billion Valuation?

比推03/10 12:48

A $20 Billion Valuation: Kalshi and Polymarket in an Arms Race?

A potential "arms race" is brewing in the prediction market sector, with industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi each reportedly in funding talks at valuations around $20 billion. This represents a near doubling of their respective $12 billion and $11 billion valuations from late 2025. As of February 2026, the global prediction market has reached a cumulative notional trading volume of $127.5 billion. Polymarket leads with $56.07 billion, followed closely by Kalshi at $44.71 billion, together commanding 79% market share. Their growth trajectories differ: Kalshi has experienced explosive user growth, with monthly active users surging from 600,000 to over 5.1 million in 2025, while Polymarket's user growth has been steadier, peaking around 700,000 monthly active users. Kalshi's trading volume skyrocketed over 1100% in 2025, largely driven by sports contracts which account for 81% of its volume. It has secured key partnerships with platforms like Robinhood, which contributed over 50% of its volume in late 2025, and media outlets like CNBC and CNN. Polymarket maintains a stronghold in political and crypto event markets. It has formed significant partnerships with X (formerly Twitter), ICE (for a strategic investment up to $2 billion), and the UFC for exclusive prediction market data. Both platforms are also official partners of the NHL, and their data is integrated into Google's search and finance products. Their divergent strategies—Kalshi's focus on USD-compliant trading and Polymarket's crypto-native, global event coverage—are collectively pushing prediction markets into the mainstream as vital information and risk-management platforms. With potential new funding and major upcoming events like the World Cup and the US elections, both platforms are poised for a record-breaking year in 2026.

marsbit03/09 07:06

A $20 Billion Valuation: Kalshi and Polymarket in an Arms Race?

marsbit03/09 07:06

How to Accurately Value Cryptocurrencies?

Evaluating cryptocurrencies requires moving beyond simplistic metrics like market cap divided by protocol revenue. The core framework proposed is Enterprise Value (EV) / Holder Income, which accounts for what token holders actually receive. Key adjustments include: - **EV Calculation**: EV = Market Cap - Extractable Treasury Assets (discounted based on holder control, e.g., 0% for auto-burn, 100% if no claim exists). - **Holder Income**: The portion of protocol revenue (after supply-side payments) that reaches holders via buybacks, burns, or distributions. The accrual Ratio (Holder Income/Protocol Revenue) varies widely (25%-100% in examples). - **Token Costs**: Team incentives and operational costs from new token issuance are true business expenses and reduce Holder Income. Investor unlocks are market events, not operational costs. Examples: - HYPE: High accrual (100%) but significant team costs. - PUMP: Low EV/Protocol Revenue but high "holder tax" from future unlocks. - MAPLE: Large accrual discount (25.1% ratio). - JUP: Clean structure with net-zero emissions. This framework highlights the mispricing between protocol earnings and holder returns, emphasizing the need to measure actual value capture.

marsbit03/09 03:16

How to Accurately Value Cryptocurrencies?

marsbit03/09 03:16

Here’s how OKB’s latest 26% rally could trap late buyers near the price top

OKB, the native token of the OKX exchange, surged 26% following a major investment announcement from Intercontinental Exchange, which valued OKX at $25 billion. This development improved market sentiment and attracted significant spot investor activity, with $1.88 million in OKB purchases and weekly netflows reaching a four-week high of $2.87 million. However, technical indicators suggest caution: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals overbought conditions, and the Aroon Indicator points to growing downside pressure. While the investment strengthens OKX’s long-term outlook, traders should be wary of a potential price correction despite short-term buying support.

ambcrypto03/06 20:02

Here’s how OKB’s latest 26% rally could trap late buyers near the price top

ambcrypto03/06 20:02

Valuation Collapse and Revenue Divergence: Reassessing the True Logic of Crypto Assets

Cryptocurrency valuations are collapsing as the industry matures, with infrastructure tokens losing their premium while revenue becomes concentrated in a few key sectors. Despite generating record fees ($74.8B since 2018, nearly half in 2024-2025), the market is gripped by fear, with projects shutting down and talent migrating to AI. Stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle now capture 34.3% of all crypto fees, benefiting from massive demand (hedging against inflation in emerging markets) and near-zero marginal costs. Their dominance stems from distribution advantages and Lindy effects, not technical superiority. Meanwhile, speculative trading products (Telegram bots, perpetual exchanges like Hyperliquid) grew rapidly, accounting for over 15% of fees by 2025. These leverage crypto’s mature infrastructure to offer high-risk, dopamine-driven financial services. In contrast, DeFi protocols and L1/L2 chains face valuation compression. Price-to-fee ratios for major chains (Solana, Arbitrum, Optimism) fell dramatically as novelty premiums faded. The market now values revenue-generating protocols rationally—often at or below traditional finance multiples (e.g., Aave at 4x P/S vs. Visa’s 15x). The key insight: Crypto’s must build real economic moats (first-mover advantage, liquidity, or distribution) and赋予代币实际权益 token holders with clear economic rights and governance power. The era of speculative narratives is over; sustainable value comes from capturing fees via high-frequency trading or trust-minimized transactions.

marsbit03/06 10:07

Valuation Collapse and Revenue Divergence: Reassessing the True Logic of Crypto Assets

marsbit03/06 10:07

Those Who Hate Bitcoin Are 'Plundering' the World with Private Credit

Author Jeff Park argues that private credit is the latest and most insidious financial innovation designed to conceal risk, ultimately socializing losses onto unsuspecting pensioners and insurance policyholders. Unlike past instruments like junk bonds or structured credit, private credit is structured to be opaque, with slow, smoothed valuations that hide problems until catastrophic, instantaneous write-downs occur (like BlackRock recently writing two loans to zero). The article posits that the 2008 crisis didn't eliminate risk but pushed it into a shadow banking system. The $2 trillion private credit market, now funding major AI projects, creates a perverse cycle: workers' retirement savings are used for automation that may eliminate their jobs. The core criticism is the flawed incentive structure: fund managers collect fees upfront while long lock-ups and a lack of transparency ensure that retirees and ordinary investors bear all the losses when the investments fail, making it a form of "theft of time" where profits are privatized and losses are socialized.

marsbit03/06 09:53

Those Who Hate Bitcoin Are 'Plundering' the World with Private Credit

marsbit03/06 09:53

Profit Soaring, Sentiment at Rock Bottom: The True Face of Crypto Amid $6 Billion Unlock

The crypto industry faces a paradox: record-high profitability amid extreme fear and negative sentiment. While protocols generated $74.8 billion in fees since 2018—nearly half in the last 18 months—many projects have shut down, and layoffs are widespread. Key shifts in revenue structure reveal that stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle now dominate, capturing 34.3% of all fees due to high demand for dollar-backed assets and near-zero marginal costs. Meanwhile, trading-focused applications (e.g., Telegram bots and perpetual exchanges) have surged, accounting for over 15% of revenue by catering to speculative demand. In contrast, layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains and DeFi protocols have seen valuations collapse, with price-to-fee ratios dropping sharply. The median monthly revenue for protocols has fallen to $13,000, indicating intense competition. The industry’s moats include first-mover advantage (e.g., Tether), liquidity depth (e.g., Aave), and distribution prowess (e.g., meme platforms). Token valuations are now more rational—often below traditional finance multiples—but must evolve to offer real economic rights and governance utility. Crypto’s future lies in integrating with the broader internet infrastructure, focusing on high-frequency trading fees and verifiable transparency.

marsbit03/06 09:42

Profit Soaring, Sentiment at Rock Bottom: The True Face of Crypto Amid $6 Billion Unlock

marsbit03/06 09:42

After the Valuation Collapse: The Crypto Market Enters the 'Revenue Pricing' Era

The crypto market is shifting from speculative narratives to a focus on real revenue generation, entering an "earnings-based valuation" era. Despite industry-wide fear and declining sentiment, crypto-native protocols have generated $74.8 billion in fees since 2018, with nearly half ($31.4 billion) occurring between January 2024 and June 2025. However, valuations have collapsed as novelty premiums fade. Key trends include: - **Stablecoin dominance**: Tether and Circle now account for 34.3% of all fees, benefiting from global demand and near-zero marginal costs. - **Trading platforms surge**: Meme coin trading and perpetual exchanges (e.g., Hyperliquid, Jupiter) grew from 1% to over 15% of total revenue by 2025, driven by consumer demand for high-risk, high-reward products. - **Protocol decline**: Layer 1 and Layer 2 tokens (e.g., Solana, Arbitrum) saw price-to-fee ratios drop sharply as infrastructure matured and competition increased. The median monthly revenue per protocol fell to $13,000. - **Valuation rationalization**: The average price-to-sales ratio for crypto assets compressed from 40,400x in 2020 to 170x today, aligning with or below traditional financial infrastructure multiples (e.g., Visa at 15x P/S). Protocols like Aave (4x P/S) and Hyperliquid (7x P/S) now trade at reasonable valuations. The era of building pure infrastructure is over. Success requires business models with real revenue, clear moats (first-mover advantage, liquidity, or distribution), and tokens that offer actual economic rights and governance—not just speculative value.

比推03/06 09:10

After the Valuation Collapse: The Crypto Market Enters the 'Revenue Pricing' Era