# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk Management

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk Management", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Can the Dual Currency Win Strategy Really Weather Bull and Bear Markets? A 6-Year Backtest Provides the Answer

"Can the Dual Currency Win (Wheel Strategy) truly weather bull and bear markets? A 6-year backtest (2020-2026) on Bitcoin and Ethereum provides the answer. The study compared two approaches: the 'Standard Rolling Strike' method, which dynamically sells covered calls at 105% of the current spot price, and the 'Fixed Anchor' method, which stubbornly sells calls at the original, higher cost basis after a drop, refusing to sell at a loss. Key findings reveal a significant performance gap. The Standard method, while sacrificing some upside, demonstrated superior risk-adjusted returns. For a 50/50 BTC/ETH portfolio, it achieved a +1347.32% total return with a -49.9% max drawdown and a Sharpe Ratio of 0.983, outperforming both Buy & Hold (+1665.52%, -77.8% drawdown, 0.85 Sharpe) on risk metrics and crushing the Fixed Anchor method (+592.77%, -61.8% drawdown, 0.766 Sharpe). The data shows the Standard strategy's strength lies in its dynamic adjustment mechanism, continuously resetting its strike price to balance income generation with participation in bullish trends. Conversely, the Fixed Anchor strategy's poor performance highlights the costly pitfall of the 'anchoring bias'—the human tendency to fixate on the entry price. This psychological trap cripples the ability to collect meaningful premium during bear markets and causes investors to miss subsequent bull runs when positions are called away at breakeven. The conclusion is clear: discipline and adaptability are far more valuable than the psychological comfort of 'breaking even.' The true risk in trending assets is not volatility, but being anchored to a past price, which severely limits future upside potential."

marsbit02/27 09:25

Can the Dual Currency Win Strategy Really Weather Bull and Bear Markets? A 6-Year Backtest Provides the Answer

marsbit02/27 09:25

A $20 Million Loss Lesson: For Buying the Dip in U.S. Stocks, Just Remember These 'Three Dos and Three Don'ts'

"Losing 20 Million: A Painful Lesson on Bottom-Fishing in the U.S. Stock Market — Remember the 'Three Dos and Three Don'ts'" The author shares hard-earned insights after significant losses, concluding that while timing the peak is crucial for A-shares, bottom-fishing is key for U.S. stocks. The U.S. market's long-term upward trend makes buying the dip a core strategy, though it is psychologically challenging for many investors accustomed to A-shares' volatility. The article defines market corrections into three levels based on decline magnitude and duration: daily (5%+ drop or 2+ weeks), weekly (10%+ or 4+ weeks), and monthly (15%+ or 4+ months). Only 7 monthly corrections occurred in the S&P 500 over 20 years, each driven by macro events like rate hikes or crises. The core of U.S. stock bottom-fishing is a disciplined, batched approach. The "Three Dos and Three Don'ts" are: 1. Do plan batched entries; don’t make impulsive trades. 2. Prioritize "buying enough" over "buying cheap." 3. Use time-based batches (e.g., buying every few weeks) over price-based batches. For weekly corrections, a three-batch plan over ~10 weeks is suggested. For rarer monthly corrections, a 6-month plan with decreasing batch sizes (1/2, 1/3, 1/6) is advised. The strategy assumes the market’s long-term growth and relatively low volatility. The article also categorizes downturns: natural pullbacks, valuation-driven adjustments, and systemic crises (e.g., 2008, 2020). While black swan events are unpredictable, the key is to respond based on evolving realities rather than trying to predict them. The ultimate advice: stay engaged, assess risks as they develop, and remember that even severe crashes eventually recover.

marsbit02/14 09:28

A $20 Million Loss Lesson: For Buying the Dip in U.S. Stocks, Just Remember These 'Three Dos and Three Don'ts'

marsbit02/14 09:28

Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Window for Bottom-Fishing May Not Have Arrived Yet

Matrixport Research confirms that the crypto market has entered a bear phase, with Bitcoin's recent break below a key support level signaling a confirmed downtrend. Historical cycle analysis suggests this correction aligns with typical bear market patterns in both scale and rhythm. The focus has now shifted from whether the trend has reversed to identifying the next optimal accumulation window. Key observations indicate that Bitcoin's break below its one-year moving average often marks the start of a bear market, which historically lasts about 12 months. This suggests the next bull cycle may not begin until Q4 2026, with a potential cycle low likely in Q3 2026. The report also posits that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle correlates more strongly with U.S. midterm election cycles than with halving events, citing heightened regulatory and political uncertainty as key drivers of market tops and bottoms. From a technical perspective, neither the monthly Stochastic oscillator (currently at ~39%) nor the monthly RSI (near 50) has yet reached key oversold thresholds that historically signaled major bottoms. A clear reversal confirmation—typically occurring after a break below extreme levels—has not appeared. The report concludes that the final market low has likely not been reached and emphasizes the need for patience. A sustainable recovery should be confirmed by clear signals of exhausted selling momentum, not just proximity to perceived low prices.

Matrixport02/13 08:37

Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Window for Bottom-Fishing May Not Have Arrived Yet

Matrixport02/13 08:37

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