# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Kalshi

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Kalshi", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

From Polymarket to Probable: Deconstructing the Prediction Market Involution Index and Anti-Harvesting Strategies

From Polymarket to Probable: Deconstructing Prediction Market Competition and Anti-Sybil Strategies Prediction markets require real capital, filtering out low-effort users but introducing financial risk. Key precautions include regulatory awareness, risk management, and understanding market manipulation risks. Effective participation demands analytical skills and careful attention to contract terms. Blind betting often leads to losses; hedging across platforms can reduce unilateral risk. Polymarket leads with $22B+ funding, 920K traders, and strong U.S. re-entry prospects. It is highly competitive but worth engaging with cost control. Kalshi, with $16B funding and CFTC regulation, has high transaction volume but no clear token plan, making participation less cost-effective. Opinion shows rapid growth, clear airdrop expectations, and strong backing, but requires strategic engagement. Predict.fun, backed by YZi Labs, has lower competition and explicit airdrops, attracting users primarily for points farming. Probable, incubated by PancakeSwap, is in early stages with zero fees and a referral-based points system, presenting low competition and high potential. Overall, evaluate projects based on backing, user competition, and incentive structures before committing funds.

marsbit01/16 11:09

From Polymarket to Probable: Deconstructing the Prediction Market Involution Index and Anti-Harvesting Strategies

marsbit01/16 11:09

Hiring at $200K Annual Salary: Wall Street Advances into Prediction Markets

Wall Street firms are aggressively entering the prediction markets, with trading giants like DRW, Susquehanna, and Tyr Capital building specialized teams. DRW is offering up to $200,000 in base salary to hire traders who can monitor and trade on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Trading volume in these markets surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $8 billion by December 2025, attracting institutional interest. Unlike retail traders who often bet on single events, institutions focus on cross-platform arbitrage and structural opportunities. For example, hedge funds can use prediction markets to hedge investments with greater precision by pairing positions—such as buying "no recession" contracts on Polymarket while shorting overvalued bonds in credit markets. Market makers like Susquehanna, which has privileged access to lower fees and higher limits on platforms like Kalshi, are set to reduce arbitrage opportunities and improve liquidity. This professionalization may lead to more complex products, such as multi-event combos and conditional probability contracts. The entry of well-capitalized, technologically advanced institutions signals a maturation of prediction markets, mirroring the historical pattern of散户-driven innovation eventually dominated by professional players. While retail traders may find niches in long-tail events, the era of easy profits from informational edges is likely over.

marsbit01/15 04:02

Hiring at $200K Annual Salary: Wall Street Advances into Prediction Markets

marsbit01/15 04:02

Nibbling Away at a Hundred-Billion-Dollar Gambling Cake, Prediction Markets Face Bans from Multiple States

Prediction markets are facing regulatory crackdowns in multiple U.S. states, with Tennessee’s Sports Wagering Council (SWC) recently issuing cease-and-desist orders to platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. These platforms, though registered with the CFTC as designated contract markets, are accused of offering illegal sports betting products without state licensing. They must halt operations in Tennessee by January 31 or face penalties. The conflict stems from the rapid growth of both the legal U.S. sports betting market—which reached $148.7 billion in handle in 2024—and prediction markets, which saw trading volume surge to $40 billion in 2025, up 400% year-over-year. Sports-related event contracts now dominate prediction market activity. While sports betting is regulated at the state level, prediction markets subject to federal oversight argue they offer “event contracts” rather than gambling, creating a regulatory loophole. This has led to legal battles in several states, including Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland, with mixed court rulings so far. The outcome of ongoing appeals could set a national precedent, determining whether prediction markets must comply with state gambling regulations or can operate under federal rules alone.

比推01/12 15:23

Nibbling Away at a Hundred-Billion-Dollar Gambling Cake, Prediction Markets Face Bans from Multiple States

比推01/12 15:23

Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Face Crackdown from the Established Order

Pioneering prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com’s Truth Predict are facing regulatory pushback in the U.S., particularly from state authorities overseeing sports betting. On January 9, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued cease-and-desist orders to these platforms, accusing them of offering illegal sports gambling products without state licensing, despite being registered with the CFTC as designated contract markets. The conflict stems from the rapid growth of both sectors. Since the federal ban on sports betting was overturned in 2018, 30 states—including Tennessee—have legalized online sports betting, generating billions in wagers and significant tax revenue. In 2024 alone, U.S. sports betting handle reached $148.74 billion, with taxes contributing $2.82 billion. Tennessee collected $97.16 million in taxes from sports betting in 2024. Prediction markets, which trade “event contracts” classified as financial derivatives under CFTC jurisdiction, have surged in popularity. Their 2025 trading volume hit $40 billion, a 400% increase from 2023, with sports-related contracts being the largest category. This growth threatens traditional sportsbooks, whose stocks have underperformed the market. Multiple states—including Maryland, Ohio, and Nevada—have taken action against prediction markets. Kalshi has challenged these actions in court, arguing federal compliance should preempt state regulations, but court rulings have been mixed. The legal battles are expected to escalate, potentially reaching the Supreme Court, as states defend their regulatory authority and tax base against what they perceive as unlicensed gambling operations.

marsbit01/12 02:55

Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Face Crackdown from the Established Order

marsbit01/12 02:55

Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Are Being Hunted by the Old Order

Prediction markets are facing regulatory crackdowns in the United States, particularly from state-level authorities overseeing the lucrative sports betting industry. The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) recently issued cease-and-desist orders to platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding they halt sports-related prediction contracts for state residents. The SWC alleges these platforms are offering illegal gambling services without a state license, despite being registered with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract markets. This conflict stems from the rapid growth of both sectors. Since the federal ban on sports betting was overturned in 2018, the legal U.S. sports betting market has exploded, reaching nearly $150 billion in total bets in 2024. Tennessee, which legalized online-only sports betting, collected over $97 million in tax revenue from it in 2024. Prediction markets, which frame their offerings as "event contracts" (financial derivatives under CFTC purview) rather than gambling, have seen even more explosive growth, with trading volume surging 400% to $40 billion in 2025, with sports-related contracts being the largest category. This creates a "regulatory arbitrage," allowing prediction markets to operate without state licenses, addiction controls, or high gambling taxes, directly competing with and eroding the tax base of the traditional sports betting industry. The friction is not isolated to Tennessee; multiple other states have taken similar action. Kalshi has challenged several states in court, arguing federal regulation preempts state law, but court rulings have been mixed and the issue is expected to eventually be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. The core of the conflict is the fundamental similarity of the services offered versus their differing regulatory classifications, setting the stage for a prolonged legal battle over this grey area.

Odaily星球日报01/12 02:50

Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Are Being Hunted by the Old Order

Odaily星球日报01/12 02:50

Tennessee Regulator Sends Cease-And-Desist Letters To Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com — Details

The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) has issued cease-and-desist letters to prediction market platforms Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting contracts to state residents without the required licenses. The regulator ordered the firms to void all pending contracts from Tennessee customers and refund their deposits by January 31, 2026. It cited significant consumer protection risks and threatened fines of up to $25,000 per violation, as well as injunctive relief for non-compliance. This action highlights increasing state-level regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, even though these platforms are registered with the CFTC and permitted to operate nationally. Similar orders were previously issued in Connecticut.

bitcoinist01/11 19:01

Tennessee Regulator Sends Cease-And-Desist Letters To Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com — Details

bitcoinist01/11 19:01

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Players Hold Over 97.5% Market Share

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Duopoly Holds Over 97.5% Market Share In 2025, the prediction market sector reached a total trading volume of $50.25 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket dominating the landscape by capturing over 97.5% of the market share. The remaining ecosystem accounted for just $1.25 billion in trading volume, involving emerging platforms like Azuro, TrendleFi, and others. Kalshi reported a record-breaking year with a nominal trading volume of $23.8 billion, marking a 1,108% year-over-year increase. December alone saw $6.38 billion in trades, setting multiple historical highs. Polymarket’s annual volume was estimated at approximately $22 billion, though data varied across sources like DefiLlama and Dune. Sports dominated Kalshi’s trading volume (85%), while Polymarket saw a more diversified distribution: sports (39%), politics (34%), and cryptocurrency (18%). Other categories like economics and tech/science also saw significant growth, with open interest expanding substantially throughout the year. Trading activity surged in the second half of 2025, driven by major events and elections. November and December were particularly strong, with combined monthly volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket nearing $10 billion and exceeding $13 billion, respectively. The top platforms by historical trading volume were Kalshi ($27.1B), Polymarket ($23.2B), Opinion ($13.1B), Limitless ($512M), and Azuro ($444M). The sector is poised for further growth in 2026, fueled by events like the U.S. midterm elections and the World Cup.

Odaily星球日报01/08 01:36

2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Players Hold Over 97.5% Market Share

Odaily星球日报01/08 01:36

From a "Preemptive Bet" Trade, Understanding the Hottest Web3 Trend of 2025: Prediction Markets

In early January 2025, a significant transaction on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket drew widespread attention. An account invested approximately $32,537 over four days betting that Venezuelan President Maduro would leave office by January 31. The bet was placed hours before related geopolitical news became public, eventually yielding over $400,000 in profit as the event's perceived likelihood surged. This incident highlights the growing influence of prediction markets—a rapidly expanding Web3 sector in 2025. Prediction markets use financial incentives to aggregate dispersed information, allowing participants to trade on event outcomes. Prices reflect collective intelligence, often outperforming traditional polls, as seen during the 2024 U.S. election. Key platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted over $3.15 billion in funding, with Polymarket’s valuation reaching $8–9 billion after a strategic investment from ICE. The sector is projected to grow from $900 million in trading volume in 2024 to $40 billion in 2025, with users increasing from 4 million to 15 million. Unlike gambling, prediction markets use transparent, market-driven pricing and serve as data products for decision-making, attracting researchers and institutional players. Their growth is fueled by regulatory clarity from the CFTC, expanded event categories, and improved technology. However, risks remain, including potential insider trading and market manipulation. Participation is prohibited in mainland China. Nonetheless, prediction markets represent a shift in Web3 toward real-world information infrastructure rather than pure asset speculation.

marsbit01/07 06:37

From a "Preemptive Bet" Trade, Understanding the Hottest Web3 Trend of 2025: Prediction Markets

marsbit01/07 06:37

Venezuela Attack: US Lawmaker To Introduce Prediction Market Bill Targeting Insider Trading

US Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce a bill banning government officials from insider trading on prediction markets. This follows reports that three recently created wallets netted over $630,000 in profits on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a US military operation. The proposed "Public Integrity In Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026" would prohibit federal officials from trading prediction contracts when possessing nonpublic government information. Meanwhile, the crypto market remained resilient, with Bitcoin rising 2.13% to $91,414 and the total market cap reaching $3.08 trillion.

bitcoinist01/04 15:04

Venezuela Attack: US Lawmaker To Introduce Prediction Market Bill Targeting Insider Trading

bitcoinist01/04 15:04

Why Did It Take Prediction Markets Nearly 40 Years to Explode?

This article explores the explosive growth of prediction markets in 2025, which saw an estimated 400% increase in trading volume, reaching $40 billion, and a user base growing to 15 million. It examines why, despite existing since the 1980s (e.g., Iowa Electronic Markets), prediction markets only recently surged in popularity. Key factors for the 2025 boom include major regulatory progress. The CFTC approved platforms like Polymarket as designated contract markets, allowing them to operate legally in the US. This compliance enabled wider distribution, integration into major apps like Robinhood, and attracted institutional investment, with both Polymarket and Kalshi securing over $1 billion in new funding. Regulatory clarity also allowed for a diversification of event types, including sports and crypto, which now dominate trading volume. The article contrasts prediction markets with traditional gambling, noting the US government distinguishes them based on their "positive externalities." Unlike sportsbooks that set odds, prediction markets facilitate peer-to-peer betting, aggregating collective knowledge to improve information efficiency and decision-making, which regulators view as socially beneficial despite gambling-like elements. A provocative section discusses insider trading. Some argue that insiders using non-public information on anonymous, decentralized platforms like Polymarket can enhance market accuracy and serve as a form of information discovery. However, this may harm retail trader trust and long-term liquidity. In conclusion, the convergence of regulatory approval, product improvement, and AI-driven tools created a perfect environment for prediction markets to thrive in 2025, though questions about fairness, competition, and global adoption remain open.

marsbit12/31 03:49

Why Did It Take Prediction Markets Nearly 40 Years to Explode?