# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Kalshi

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Kalshi", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

By the end of 2025, prediction markets have fundamentally shifted from being event-driven tools reliant on black swan events to platforms sustained by structural trading demand. The total monthly trading volume has grown from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $1 billion by late 2025, indicating a phase of explosive growth and consistent liquidity. The industry has evolved into five distinct segments: 1. **Compliant Markets**: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, exchange-like) and Polymarket (globally liquid, later US-compliant) lead with institutional and high-frequency trading, especially in sports contracts. 2. **Crypto-Native Experiments**: Platforms like Opinion explore high-risk, crypto-policy, and speculative events, driving innovation but facing regulatory uncertainty. 3. **High-Frequency Trading Platforms**: Limitless shortens contract cycles, blurring lines between prediction markets and derivatives trading. 4. **Embedded Markets**: Myriad Markets integrates prediction features into wallets and super-apps, reducing user acquisition costs and making participation more casual. 5. **Native Information Markets**: Platforms like predict.fun and media integrations use incentives and community mechanisms to blend prediction with content and social interaction. Regulation in 2025 has not meant full liberalization but rather the establishment of boundaries—predictive contracts are recognized as financial instruments, yet state-level gambling laws remain a friction point. The core shift for users is understanding that these markets now price uncertainty and reflect consensus, not just binary outcomes. Looking ahead, prediction markets are becoming tools for understanding uncertainty rather than mere betting arenas, with projections suggesting significant future growth. 2025 marks the beginning of this structural transformation.

比推12/29 23:05

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

比推12/29 23:05

Gambling or Cognitive Monetization? Deconstructing the Smart Money Path and Eleven Arbitrage Strategies in Prediction Markets

The article "Gambling or Cognitive Monetization? Deconstructing the Smart Money Path and Eleven Arbitrage Strategies in Prediction Markets" explores the rise of prediction markets as a high-potential sector in crypto, expected to surge around the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Unlike traditional crypto trading, prediction markets focus on probability-based outcomes rather than price speculation, attracting "smart money" through sophisticated strategies. Key data shows platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen trading volumes spike 3-7x during recent market downturns, though the total market size remains early-stage at ~$385 billion—far below major exchanges but with trillion-dollar potential by 2030. Eleven arbitrage strategies are detailed: 1. **Math Arbitrage**: Exploiting pricing imbalances (e.g., YES + NO < 1). 2. **Cross-Platform Hedging**: Capitalizing on odds discrepancies across markets. 3. **High-Probability "Bonds"**: Betting on near-certain outcomes for small, steady returns. 4. **Initial Liquidity Sniping**: Scripts grab low-priced shares at market creation. 5. **AI Probability Modeling**: Using AI to identify mispriced events. 6. **AI Information Gaps**: Leveraging speed advantages in news digestion. 7. **Correlated Markets**: Profiting from delayed reactions in related events. 8. **Automated Market Making**: Earning fees via liquidity provision. 9. **Whale Tracking**: Copying high-success addresses. 10. **Exclusive Research**: Monetizing private or grassroots data (e.g., election insights). 11. **Oracle Manipulation**: Exploiting UMA’s optimistic oracle flaws—though upgrades aim to fix this. Prediction markets thrive by offering a "truth machine" for the information age: they aggregate collective wisdom via monetary stakes, convert expertise into profit, and lower entry barriers with simple binary options. However, risks include short market cycles, low liquidity in niche events, manipulation, and regulatory uncertainty. The core remains a math-driven battlefield where cognitive edge—not just capital—wins.

marsbit12/29 08:16

Gambling or Cognitive Monetization? Deconstructing the Smart Money Path and Eleven Arbitrage Strategies in Prediction Markets

marsbit12/29 08:16

Cross-Chain, Copy Trading, Lightning Orders... Six Aggregators to Keep You Ahead in the Prediction Market

In 2025, prediction markets are rapidly growing, led by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. A key development is the rise of prediction market aggregators—advanced tools that integrate DeFi features like whale tracking, copy trading, lightning-fast orders, cross-chain liquidity, and stop-loss mechanisms. These platforms enhance trading efficiency and strategic options. Six notable aggregators are highlighted: - **TradeFox** (formerly factCheck): Acts as a professional terminal integrating Polymarket, Kalshi, and SxBet. It offers easy access with BTC/SOL deposits, copy trading, and instant order execution while preserving native platform benefits. - **Converge**: A data-focused aggregator and trading terminal offering real-time odds comparison, liquidity analysis, and low-slippage trading across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless. - **Predictefy**: A comprehensive terminal (not a bot) providing deep data aggregation, arbitrage opportunities, and visual tools to compare markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. - **Synthesis**: A full-featured terminal with a unified self-custody account system using dflow protocol for seamless multi-chain USDC transactions. It includes advanced tools like limit orders and arbitrage detection. - **Verso Trading**: A minimalist, data-oriented tool for filtering and tracking markets on Kalshi and Polymarket based on odds, volume, and timeframes. - **Rocket**: An innovative, yet-to-launch platform using a unique model of 5-second settlement rounds and a unified margin account to reduce risk and improve capital efficiency. These aggregators address market fragmentation by connecting isolated liquidity pools, serving as both arbitrage tools for professionals and accessibility bridges for casual users. They are evolving into essential infrastructure, driving prediction markets from speculative betting toward efficient, financialized global information markets.

Odaily星球日报12/27 02:35

Cross-Chain, Copy Trading, Lightning Orders... Six Aggregators to Keep You Ahead in the Prediction Market

Odaily星球日报12/27 02:35

The Rise of Prediction Markets: DeFi's Next High-Value Piece in 2026

Prediction markets are emerging as a high-value component within DeFi, expected to mature significantly by 2026. These markets, which blend information discovery with financial speculation, exhibit a natural monopolistic tendency, leading to the development of a layered ecosystem comprising core platforms, peripheral services, and external integrations. Unlike traditional financial instruments, prediction markets (exemplified by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi) thrive on highly certain underlying events (e.g., election dates) but uncertain outcomes (e.g., election winners). This structure allows real-time information to shape market sentiment, often becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Current innovations are focusing on DeFi integration of prediction market assets. Rather than creating clone platforms or simple tooling, the most promising direction involves leveraging the idle capital locked in prediction market positions before outcomes are determined. Proposals include using these assets within DeFi lending protocols (e.g., via platforms like Gondor or Morpho) or developing cross-market arbitrage mechanisms that offer users discounted entry prices funded by yield generated from DeFi strategies. This approach benefits all parties: users get better pricing and additional yield, prediction platforms gain increased volume and integration into broader DeFi ecosystems, and liquidity providers achieve higher capital efficiency. The deterministic nature of settlement dates makes these assets uniquely suitable for structured financial products. With major events like the 2026 World Cup and U.S. midterm elections approaching, prediction markets are poised to capture significant attention and capital, further accelerating their convergence with DeFi.

比推12/24 09:11

The Rise of Prediction Markets: DeFi's Next High-Value Piece in 2026

比推12/24 09:11

2026 Kicks Off a Major Financial Year: Prediction Markets Are Becoming the Next Frontier for DeFi

The article "2026: The Grand Opening of Finance – Prediction Markets Emerge as DeFi's Next Frontier" discusses the rise of prediction markets in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. It highlights how prediction markets, after achieving product-market fit, are gaining mainstream traction, similar to Bitcoin and stablecoins. These markets exhibit a natural platform monopoly effect, forming a layered ecosystem of core platforms, peripheral services, and external applications. Prediction markets are characterized as deterministic yet uncertain, dealing with events like U.S. elections or the World Cup, where outcomes are influenced by real-time information and participant sentiment. Major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are becoming centralized hubs for information discovery, backed by significant capital investment due to their maturity and compliance advantages in Western markets. The article identifies four emerging models around prediction markets: 1. Clone platforms facing high entry barriers and compliance costs. 2. Asset-layer innovations, such as DeFi integration for betting assets (e.g., using positions as collateral or adding leverage). 3. Specialized tools for arbitrage, data aggregation, and analysis. 4. KOL-driven referral and佣金 platforms. The most promising opportunity lies in DeFi-izing prediction market assets, particularly leveraging idle funds during the betting period until outcomes are determined. The author proposes a cross-market arbitrage mechanism inspired by e-commerce discount platforms, where users place discounted bets on platforms like Polymarket, while their funds are deployed in DeFi protocols (e.g., Morpho) for yield. This approach benefits all parties: users get better prices, platforms gain volume, and liquidity providers earn returns without disrupting the core betting experience. The conclusion emphasizes that prediction markets' true value is in their locked capital with clear expiration dates. As 2026 approaches with major events like the U.S. midterm elections and the World Cup, regulatory tailwinds and market enthusiasm could make it a pivotal year for prediction markets and DeFi convergence.

marsbit12/24 08:15

2026 Kicks Off a Major Financial Year: Prediction Markets Are Becoming the Next Frontier for DeFi

marsbit12/24 08:15

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets significantly outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting year-over-year CPI data, particularly during economic shocks. The study, analyzing data from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s predictions had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus forecasts overall. During major shocks (deviations >0.2 percentage points), Kalshi’s MAE was 50–60% lower, and for moderate shocks (0.1–0.2 points), it was 50–56.2% lower. When market predictions diverged from consensus by over 0.1 points, they correctly signaled a shock about 81% of the time and were more accurate in 75% of cases. The outperformance is attributed to diverse participant insights, direct financial incentives for accuracy, and efficient aggregation of dispersed information. These findings suggest prediction markets provide a valuable complementary signal, especially in volatile periods where traditional models often fail.

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets consistently outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting the U.S. year-over-year CPI inflation rate. The study, covering over 25 monthly CPI releases from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus predictions across all environments. The advantage was most pronounced during economic "shocks." For large surprises (over 0.2 percentage points), Kalshi's forecasts were 50% more accurate a week before the data release, improving to 60% more accurate the day before. For medium surprises (0.1-0.2 percentage points), the advantage was similarly 50%, rising to 56.2% closer to the release. Crucially, a divergence of over 0.1 percentage points between the market forecast and consensus served as a strong signal, with an 81.2% probability that a shock would occur. When the two forecasts disagreed, the market prediction was more accurate 75% of the time. The report attributes this "Shock Alpha" to three factors: the "wisdom of crowds" aggregating diverse information, superior incentive structures that reward accuracy over conformity, and more efficient information synthesis, even with the same public data. This suggests prediction markets provide a valuable, differentiated signal for investors and policymakers, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Crypto.com says market maker boosts liquidity, denies trading edge on customers

Crypto.com is establishing an internal market-making team to support its expansion into prediction markets, a move it states is fully compliant with regulations and designed to boost liquidity. The company denies its internal team has any unfair advantage, asserting it does not get a "first look" at customer orders or proprietary data. It emphasized that all market makers operate under the same rules to ensure fairness and that proprietary trading is not a revenue source. The practice is common among competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket, which also use market makers to provide liquidity.

cointelegraph12/23 16:38

Crypto.com says market maker boosts liquidity, denies trading edge on customers

cointelegraph12/23 16:38

Recruiting Veterans from Polymarket, Coinbase Dives into the Deep End of Prediction Markets

On December 22, Coinbase announced its agreement to acquire The Clearing Company, a move expected to close in January. The deal, involving both cash and stock, marks a strategic shift from distribution partnerships to deeper integration of technology and talent in the prediction market space. The Clearing Company’s team includes former executives and engineers from leading prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, bringing significant expertise. Despite being an early-stage startup, it raised a $15 million seed round—nearly four times Polymarket’s seed funding—reflecting high market expectations. This acquisition follows Coinbase’s recent partnership with CFTC-regulated Kalshi, allowing user access to prediction markets via Coinbase. The company is expanding into stock trading, prediction markets, and other asset classes, positioning itself as a comprehensive trading platform. It has also co-founded the Coalition for Prediction Markets to advocate for regulated, transparent market access. The move is part of Coinbase’s broader M&A strategy in 2025, which includes several other acquisitions. By internalizing key prediction market capabilities, Coinbase aims to compete in the next phase of regulated, institutional-grade prediction markets.

marsbit12/23 07:06

Recruiting Veterans from Polymarket, Coinbase Dives into the Deep End of Prediction Markets

marsbit12/23 07:06

Why Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin is betting on prediction markets as ‘truth-seeking’ tools

Prediction markets are gaining significant traction in crypto, with Ethereum's Vitalik Buterin endorsing them as "truth-seeking" tools and an antidote to misinformation, despite acknowledging potential manipulation risks. The segment saw a major breakthrough in 2025, highlighted by Polymarket's partnerships with NYSE parent ICE for data distribution and with social media platform X, driving its daily trading volume to a record $179 million. However, competition has intensified as Kalshi, which tokenized its contracts and partnered with Solana-based platforms, now controls 73% of the market volume, partly due to Polymarket's prior U.S. ban. Although Polymarket has resolved regulatory issues and plans to re-enter the U.S. market, its recent downtime on Polygon has prompted moves to accelerate its Layer-2 solution. The upcoming POLY token launch may help volumes through airdrop farming. Buterin and other market experts view prediction markets as a more reliable source of truth than traditional surveys due to their financial incentives.

ambcrypto12/22 05:01

Why Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin is betting on prediction markets as ‘truth-seeking’ tools

ambcrypto12/22 05:01

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