# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Kalshi

When Prediction Markets No Longer 'Predict', But 'Leak the Truth': BlockBeats Officially Launches Prediction Market Coverage

For a long time, prediction markets were seen as rational arenas where people bet on future outcomes based on public information, with prices reflecting collective consensus. However, over the past year, it has become increasingly clear that many prediction markets are not actually "predicting the future." Instead, they are exposing outcomes that have already been determined and are known to a select few, even before official announcements. When an outcome is certain but not yet public, prediction markets become a powerful and unsettling mechanism for leaking information. The movement of money itself acts as a signal—no explicit爆料, anonymous tips, or statements are needed. Key signals include unusually large bets on specific options, addresses consistently placing winning bets during critical periods, and accounts that repeatedly "predict" correctly ahead of time. This phenomenon is changing how secrets are kept and revealed. Examples include plot twists in TV shows, results of award selections, upcoming product launches or regulatory decisions, and governance votes in crypto protocols. In traditional contexts, this would be considered insider information. But in prediction markets, the mere act of betting can reveal what is known to a few. The article also highlights how prediction markets can influence reality itself, not just reveal it. A notable example is from a Coinbase earnings call where CEO Brian Armstrong used specific words that were the subject of active prediction market bets. His utterance led to immediate market settlements, rewarding those who had bet on those words being spoken. This shows that prediction markets can create a "reality distortion field," where betting activity may actually shape outcomes. As platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi grow, the issues raised by prediction markets—information leakage, insider advantage, and potential manipulation—will have increasingly significant real-world impacts.

marsbit12/22 04:04

Fintechs prediction market addons will cost them in churn: Inversion CEO

cointelegraph12/22 02:04

Coinbase Escalates Regulatory Fight With Lawsuit Against 3 States

Coinbase has filed lawsuits against Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut in federal court, seeking to prevent state regulators from treating prediction markets as illegal gambling. The company argues that these markets are derivatives regulated by the CFTC under federal law, not by state gaming authorities. The legal action aims to avoid a patchwork of state rules that could block federally approved products. The move follows state-level actions, including cease-and-desist orders against platforms like Kalshi. Coinbase plans to launch prediction market trading in partnership with Kalshi in January 2026, making a federal ruling urgent. The outcome could determine whether such markets are regulated nationally or on a state-by-state basis, impacting innovation and market access.

bitcoinist12/20 05:32

Coinbase borrows Kalshi’s playbook, sues three states over prediction markets

Coinbase has filed lawsuits against regulators in Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan, seeking federal court rulings that prediction markets operated under CFTC oversight fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and are not subject to individual state gambling laws. The exchange argues that allowing states to independently classify these markets as illegal gambling would undermine federal regulatory authority and create inconsistent national standards. Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, emphasized that prediction markets function as neutral trading platforms—unlike traditional sportsbooks—and should be treated as regulated financial instruments. The legal move mirrors strategies used by prediction market operator Kalshi, which has faced mixed outcomes in similar state-level challenges. The cases may ultimately determine whether prediction markets are considered CFTC-regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state prohibitions.

cointelegraph12/19 08:05

Coinbase’s Latest: Prediction Markets And Stock Trading Added To Platform

Coinbase is expanding its platform to become a comprehensive financial application by adding stock trading, advanced trading tools, and prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi. CEO Brian Armstrong stated that while only 1% of users trade prediction markets as an asset class, 99% use them for insights, similar to traditional media. The company is also launching "Coinbase Tokenize," an institutional-grade infrastructure to support the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), with the ultimate goal of facilitating global access to tokenized equities. Armstrong believes all major asset classes, including equities and real estate, will transition to blockchain systems. Additionally, Coinbase will offer custom stablecoins for businesses and expand its API services for institutional clients.

bitcoinist12/18 15:30

Kalshi Teams Up with Coinbase, Robinhood, and Others to Form Prediction Market Alliance, Aiming to End the 'Casino' Argument

Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, has formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) alongside major platforms including Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Underdog. This move is a strategic response to increasing regulatory pressure and opposition from traditional gambling lobbyists, particularly following legal challenges in states like Connecticut and Nevada. The coalition aims to advocate for the prediction market industry, counter misinformation, and push for federal-level regulation, arguing that prediction markets are distinct from gambling. They emphasize that prediction markets generate valuable public information, outperform traditional polls by approximately 30%, and are used by nearly half of Americans under 45. With the industry valued at $28 billion as of October and platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each exceeding $10 billion in valuation, the sector is expanding rapidly. Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, asserts that attacks from gambling interests are motivated by profit protection rather than consumer safety. The CPM will focus on promoting transparency, market integrity, and customer protection while leveraging federal jurisdiction to overcome state-level regulatory obstacles. This development signals the maturation of prediction markets as a significant new internet-driven sector, potentially surpassing traditional gambling in relevance and utility.

Odaily星球日报12/12 10:42