# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Cycle

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Cycle", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bitcoin Losses Are Aging: 43% Of Underwater Supply Now Held By HODLers

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, 23.7% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, totaling 6.7 million BTC—the highest level since 2023. This trend reflects a shift in the distribution of loss-bearing supply between short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). Initially dominated by STHs after November’s price crash, the underwater supply is increasingly held by LTHs, who now account for 10.2% of the loss supply, while STHs hold 13.5%. This pattern mirrors previous cycle transitions where investor frustration preceded deeper bearish conditions. Bitcoin is currently priced around $85,400, down over 5.5% in the past week.

bitcoinist12/19 12:01

Bitcoin Losses Are Aging: 43% Of Underwater Supply Now Held By HODLers

bitcoinist12/19 12:01

Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer suggests Bitcoin may have peaked at its $125,000 all-time high in October, marking the end of its typical four-year halving cycle. He predicts a potential downturn with support level around $65,000–75,000 and a possible "off year" for Bitcoin in 2026. This view contrasts with analysts like Delphi Digital's Tom Shaughnessy, who expects new all-time highs in 2026 once the market recovers from October’s major liquidation event. Regulatory progress and institutional adoption are cited as potential bullish drivers, though current social sentiment remains bearish as Bitcoin dipped below $85,000. Data also shows "smart money" traders are net short on Bitcoin but long on Ethereum.

cointelegraph12/19 10:52

Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

cointelegraph12/19 10:52

From U.S. Stocks to On-Chain: The Next Structural Opportunity Is Brewing

The article discusses the potential impact of tokenized US stocks on the cryptocurrency market, arguing against the view that tokenized equities will entirely drain liquidity from the crypto space. While acknowledging that some crypto funds may flow into tokenized stocks, the author emphasizes that asset tokenization (including stocks, bonds, and gold) could significantly increase on-chain asset volume. This, combined with crypto’s composability and potential improvements in scalability and privacy, may lead to an explosion in on-chain transactions—attracting not only crypto-native funds but also traditional stock market participants. The piece suggests that tokenized assets won’t remain static on-chain; instead, they will interact with DeFi, derivatives, prediction markets, and other crypto-native applications. This could create new opportunities and even new sectors, similar to how perps and prediction markets emerged in previous cycles. Although the era of broad "altcoin seasons" may be over, high-quality crypto projects—especially those in infrastructure like DeFi, oracles, privacy, digital identity, and wallets—could still thrive. The convergence of tokenized traditional assets and crypto composability might spark innovative combinations, such as crypto AI agents or new financial instruments. Ultimately, the author believes that the next cycle will bring new "version winners," distinct from past cycles, and that while the wild west of crypto is fading, significant opportunities remain for innovative projects that leverage on-chain liquidity and composability.

比推12/19 06:15

From U.S. Stocks to On-Chain: The Next Structural Opportunity Is Brewing

比推12/19 06:15

When U.S. Stocks Go On-Chain, Who Will Become the 'Version Prodigy' of the Next Cycle?

The tokenization of US stocks on-chain is not a one-sided threat that will drain liquidity from the crypto ecosystem, but rather a development that could significantly expand the overall on-chain economy. While some crypto-native funds may flow into tokenized traditional assets like stocks, bonds, and gold, the inverse is likely: new capital from traditional markets may also enter crypto due to increased accessibility. The composability of on-chain finance could lead to an explosion in decentralized exchanges, perps, prediction markets, and new hybrid applications. This may create entirely new crypto-native sectors, similar to how previous cycles introduced innovative categories like DeFi and perpetual futures. Although the era of broad-based “altseason” is over, high-quality crypto projects—especially those in infrastructure such as L1/L2 chains, oracles, privacy tech, digital identity, and wallets—will continue to see demand. The next cycle may produce new “version winners”: projects that leverage composability, attract external liquidity, and offer unique value not found in traditional finance. While returns may be harder to achieve compared to earlier cycles, crypto remains a space for financial innovation and asymmetric opportunities. The next breakthrough may come from unexpected places—perhaps from those building quietly today.

marsbit12/19 06:08

When U.S. Stocks Go On-Chain, Who Will Become the 'Version Prodigy' of the Next Cycle?

marsbit12/19 06:08

Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle finally breaking? This post-halving data says…

Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, historically defined by post-halving rallies followed by sharp corrections, may be breaking. The 2024 halving did not trigger the typical strong upside; instead, BTC is on track to close the first post-halving year down roughly 7%. This deviation is attributed to new fundamentals, including institutional inflows, declining exchange reserves, ETF launches, and broader macroeconomic support. These factors are helping stabilize Bitcoin, potentially avoiding extreme boom-bust swings and suggesting a transition into a prolonged "supercycle" rather than a repeat of past patterns.

ambcrypto12/18 23:06

Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle finally breaking? This post-halving data says…

ambcrypto12/18 23:06

Bitcoin On-Chain Movement Shifts From High Reward To Tight Margins – Here’s What It Means

Bitcoin briefly surged above $90,000 but quickly retreated amid ongoing volatility. On-chain data indicates a significant shift: profits from transferring BTC are diminishing, as shown by the declining Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal. This suggests the market is moving away from a trader-dominated phase toward potential bearish conditions, though a true bottom may still be months away. Analysts argue Bitcoin continues to follow its historical cycles despite claims of change. Meanwhile, unrealized losses stand at 10% of market cap, indicating most holders remain profitable, reducing panic selling but possibly limiting upward price movement. BTC was trading around $86,796 at the time of reporting.

bitcoinist12/18 21:01

Bitcoin On-Chain Movement Shifts From High Reward To Tight Margins – Here’s What It Means

bitcoinist12/18 21:01

VC "Dead"? No, the Industry is Undergoing a Brutal Shakeout

The article addresses the prevailing sentiment that "VC is dead" in the crypto industry, arguing that while some venture capital firms have indeed failed, the sector as a whole is not dying but undergoing a severe shakeout. The author, a former VC investor, states that many Asian VCs have been hit hardest, with top firms shutting down or scaling back significantly. Even second- and third-tier Western VCs are now facing similar challenges, marked by reduced investment pace and difficulty in exiting portfolios. This downturn is seen as a delayed effect of the 2022 market collapse, exacerbated by broken four-year cycle expectations, overvalued deals, and extended token lockups that strain returns. However, the piece contends that VCs won’t disappear entirely. They remain essential for funding early-stage projects and supporting innovation. Well-vetted VC backing has been behind nearly all major successful crypto projects, and quality ventures continue to attract interest. The industry is moving toward a maturity phase with higher barriers to entry—akin to Web2. VCs will need stronger reputations and expertise to compete. Projects are increasingly judged by real user adoption and revenue, not just narratives or token launches. Hyperliquid and Polymarket are cited as examples of projects that built sustainable traction before launching tokens. Despite current challenges, the author remains optimistic: top talent continues to enter the space, and foundational areas like stablecoins, prediction markets, and AI-driven economies hold promise. While the barrier to success is higher than in previous cycles, Web3 remains a land of opportunity—especially when compared to the hyper-competitive Web2 environment.

marsbit12/18 03:04

VC "Dead"? No, the Industry is Undergoing a Brutal Shakeout

marsbit12/18 03:04

Will Bitcoin Return to $10,000? The Harsh Hypothesis from a Bloomberg Strategist Amid a Deflationary Cycle

Bitcoin faces mounting pressure, breaking below $90,000 and testing lows around $86,000, with most major cryptocurrencies also declining. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone presents a bearish outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 by 2026. He attributes this potential decline to a macro shift from inflation to deflation, where risk assets like Bitcoin may undergo significant repricing. McGlone emphasizes that Bitcoin is highly correlated with risk appetite and speculative cycles. He points to three key factors: mean reversion after extreme wealth creation, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio (which has already declined from over 30x to around 21x), and systemic oversupply of speculative crypto assets competing for limited risk capital. Not all analysts agree. Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin forecast downward but still expects prices around $100,000 in 2025. Glassnode notes current market stress resembles early 2022 conditions, while 10x Research warns that Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a bear market. The broader macro environment remains critical. Upcoming central bank decisions and economic data from the U.S., Europe, and Japan may determine whether deflationary pressures intensify, influencing risk assets globally. The Fed's recent rate cut and internal dissent highlight deepening policy uncertainty, making macro trends a decisive factor for Bitcoin's trajectory.

marsbit12/16 14:04

Will Bitcoin Return to $10,000? The Harsh Hypothesis from a Bloomberg Strategist Amid a Deflationary Cycle

marsbit12/16 14:04

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Holdings Hit Eight-Month Low: Bullish Precursor or Bearish Signal?

Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) supply has reached an eight-month low, dropping to 14.3 million BTC, or 71.92% of the circulating supply—levels last seen in April. This decline suggests some LTHs are selling amid recent market pressure, with 761,000 BTC sold in the past 30 days. Historically, such reductions have occurred during retail-driven bull runs or near cycle tops when LTHs take profits. Technically, Bitcoin has broken below key supports, including the 50-week moving average and a bear flag pattern, with potential further downside toward the $80,000–$84,000 support area. A break below could see a test of the 200-week moving average near $68,500. While increased selling by whales ($2.78 billion in BTC sold recently) and weak technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, the current LTH supply drop may also present an accumulation opportunity. If history repeats, as it did in April–July when LTH buying helped drive a 65% price surge, this could set the stage for a future rally. Market direction hinges on whether Bitcoin holds the $80k–$84k support zone.

marsbit12/16 10:40

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Holdings Hit Eight-Month Low: Bullish Precursor or Bearish Signal?

marsbit12/16 10:40

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

The article examines Bitcoin's four-year market cycles, traditionally aligned with its halving events, and questions whether this pattern still holds. It outlines the typical cycle phases: accumulation (low volatility, long-term buying), pre-halving bullish anticipation, a parabolic bull run with retail FOMO and leverage, and a sharp correction leading to a bear market. Bitcoin halvings, which reduce mining rewards by half every four years, are highlighted as a core mechanism for creating scarcity, similar to precious metals. Past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) are reviewed, each driven by distinct catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox collapse, ICO boom, COVID-19 stimulus) and ending with crashes exceeding 80%. Reasons for the cycle include the stock-to-flow model (measuring scarcity), market psychology/self-fulfilling prophecies, and global liquidity conditions. The current 2025 cycle is noted for unprecedented institutional involvement via ETFs and corporate treasuries, causing Bitcoin to hit new highs before the 2024 halving with less retail participation. Arguments for the cycle's end cite increased adoption by disciplined institutions (reducing volatility), Bitcoin's growing correlation with macro factors like Fed policy, and the diminishing impact of each halving. Key indicators to watch for cycle validation include post-halving price surges, large leverage unwinds, and retail altcoin speculation. The conclusion states that while historical patterns are evident, Bitcoin's evolution into a mainstream asset makes future cycles potentially different. Only time will tell if the four-year cycle persists or becomes obsolete.

marsbit12/16 06:26

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?