# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Cycle

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Cycle", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

The article "A New Perspective on Crypto's Four-Year Cycle: Insights from Seven Industry Veterans" explores whether the traditional four-year market cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin halving events, still holds true in today's crypto market. Key points from seven experts include: - The four-year cycle, once driven by Bitcoin's supply reduction from halving, is now increasingly influenced by macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and global financial policies (e.g., U.S. elections, Fed policies). - ETF inflows and institutional capital have altered price action, flattening post-halving rallies and reducing volatility as Bitcoin matures into a trillion-dollar asset. - Experts disagree on the current market phase: some see a bearish transition due to declining miner profitability and capital outflow to AI stocks, while others view it as a mid-to-late bull cycle correction with potential for slow, structural growth driven by macro liquidity. - The "altcoin season" may not return in its traditional form; future outperformance will likely be selective, focused on utility-driven projects rather than broad speculative rallies. - Most experts have reduced altcoin exposure, favoring BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, with cash reserves above 50% in some cases. - Advice for investors: avoid leverage, consider gradual accumulation (e.g., below $60K for BTC), and prioritize discipline over timing. Consensus: The four-year cycle is evolving from a rigid halving-driven model to a more complex, macro-dependent framework, with reduced returns and slower, institution-led growth defining the future.

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34

Crypto altseaon unlikely in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors’ to win out: Analyst

CoinEx Research analyst Jeff Ko predicts a traditional altcoin season is unlikely in 2026, with liquidity becoming "ruthlessly selective" and flowing only to blue-chip cryptocurrencies with real adoption, rather than lifting all altcoins. He anticipates modest global liquidity tailwinds but notes Bitcoin's correlation to money supply growth has diminished post-ETF. His base case sees Bitcoin reaching $180,000 by 2026. Conversely, veteran analyst Peter Brandt expects another prolonged bear market, projecting the next bull market peak in September 2029, aligning with the four-year cycle theory. This could involve an 80% decline from the peak, potentially sending Bitcoin to $25,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its October all-time high, and is experiencing its second-worst fourth quarter historically.

cointelegraph12/23 05:57

Crypto altseaon unlikely in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors’ to win out: Analyst

cointelegraph12/23 05:57

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Stay Resilient, But Profits Haven’t Fully Arrived – Here’s What To Know

Bitcoin's price has struggled to break above the $90,000 level, leaving long-term holders without significant profits despite their resilience. These investors, holding 13.6 million BTC worth $1.2 trillion, are waiting for stronger gains, as the price remains below the $100,000 mark. Market analyst CW notes that their patience may soon shift if the market rebounds, potentially transferring holdings to short-term holders and signaling a cycle peak. Meanwhile, on-chain activity has slowed, with the Cumulative Volume Delta indicator showing a balance between buying and selling pressure, suggesting consolidation. A key resistance level is forming at $94,000, and without increased activity from large holders, the downward trend may continue.

bitcoinist12/22 20:01

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Stay Resilient, But Profits Haven’t Fully Arrived – Here’s What To Know

bitcoinist12/22 20:01

Analyzing 10 Major BTC Top Indicators: Why Is the Current Bull Market Different from Previous Ones?

This analysis examines 10 classic Bitcoin top indicators to assess why the current bull market (as of Q4 2025) differs from previous cycles. Key metrics like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, Puell Multiple, Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 4-Year Moving Average, MVRV Z-Score, Altcoin Season Index, Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply, Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply, and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) all show subdued or neutral readings compared to historical extremes observed at past market tops (e.g., 2017 and 2021). Unlike previous cycles, these indicators suggest a lack of typical overheating signals, such as extreme miner profitability, excessive valuation deviations, or rampant altcoin speculation. The price peak on October 6, 2025, did not align with classic top patterns, indicating structural shift in Bitcoin’s market behavior. This moderation may stem from increased institutional participation via Bitcoin ETFs, which has stabilized supply dynamics, as well as broader macroeconomic factors like global liquidity changes and geopolitical events. The declining peak values of indicators like MVRV (from 10 in 2017 to ~3 in 2025) suggest Bitcoin is maturing from a cyclical asset to a mainstream reserve, reducing volatility and extending cycles. Investors may need to adapt traditional indicators with adjusted thresholds or combined metrics for future decision-making.

marsbit12/22 07:49

Analyzing 10 Major BTC Top Indicators: Why Is the Current Bull Market Different from Previous Ones?

marsbit12/22 07:49

IOSG Founder: Bitcoin Undergoes Historic Handover, Bullish on the First Half of 2026

In a significant market shift, Bitcoin has undergone a historic transfer of ownership from retail to institutional players, marking a structural transformation in the crypto landscape. Despite BTC's -5.4% and ETH's -12% price decline in 2025, institutional inflows via ETFs reached $25 billion, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale dominating holdings. Institutional ownership now stands at 24%, while retail participation dropped 66%. Three waves of long-term holder sell-offs, totaling 1.4 million BTC ($121.17B), were fully absorbed by institutional demand, preventing a crash. Key drivers include pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration, ETF integration, and corporate treasury adoption. The outlook for 2026 is bullish, especially in H1, due to expected policy tailwinds and continued institutional accumulation, with price targets ranging from $120K to $250K. Risks include macro volatility and mid-term election uncertainties, but the transition to an institutional-led market suggests a new cycle of structural growth, not a bull market top.

marsbit12/22 07:25

IOSG Founder: Bitcoin Undergoes Historic Handover, Bullish on the First Half of 2026

marsbit12/22 07:25

‘Bitcoin Demand Boom Is Fading’ — CryptoQuant Calls The Start Of Bear Market

CryptoQuant's latest analysis suggests Bitcoin is entering a bear market, citing fading demand growth as the primary catalyst. Key demand drivers—including US spot ETFs, the presidential election, and corporate treasury purchases—have weakened since early October 2025, coinciding with a major market sell-off. Institutional demand has declined, with US ETFs becoming net sellers in Q4 2025, while derivatives activity and trader sentiment have also deteriorated. Bitcoin is now trading below its 365-day moving average, a critical bull-bear threshold. The firm identifies the realized price near $56,000 as a potential bottom, implying a possible 55% correction from all-time highs—which would be the smallest bear market drawdown on record. BTC currently trades around $88,170.

bitcoinist12/21 09:41

‘Bitcoin Demand Boom Is Fading’ — CryptoQuant Calls The Start Of Bear Market

bitcoinist12/21 09:41

‘Altcoin season isn’t gone’ – Why 2026 may be the year to watch

The crypto market anticipates a potential altcoin season in 2026, though Bitcoin currently maintains dominance with 59.6% market share. Historical patterns show altcoins are near long-term support levels against BTC, similar to pre-rally phases, but projections suggest a delayed breakout until 2026. The altcoin season index remains low at 35, indicating patience is required before altcoins outperform. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a contrasting perspective, arguing altcoin seasons are always occurring in some part of the market. He suggests traders feel they "missed" gains because they held the wrong assets, citing examples like Hyperliquid and Solana’s significant rallies. Hayes warns against expecting past cycles to repeat identically, emphasizing that new tokens and narratives drive each cycle’s winners. While institutional and retail interest may shift to Ethereum and major altcoins for yield by 2026, the current capital concentration in BTC underscores a waiting game for broader altseason momentum.

ambcrypto12/21 05:02

‘Altcoin season isn’t gone’ – Why 2026 may be the year to watch

ambcrypto12/21 05:02

Bitcoin – Assessing why BTC LTH selling fears may be overblown

Recent data initially suggested Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) were selling heavily, sparking concerns about market stability. However, analysis reveals this was largely a technical distortion caused by Coinbase’s internal reshuffle of nearly 800,000 BTC in late November, which disrupted on-chain data. When these transactions are excluded, LTH selling appears steady and consistent with historical cycles. Market indicators support a more balanced outlook. The NVT Golden Cross, after dipping into undervalued territory, is recovering toward neutral levels—a pattern historically associated with accumulation phases. Bitcoin’s RSI also neared oversold conditions, often a precursor to relief rallies, though price action remains below key EMAs. Analysts like Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research note that while 2026 may bring continued volatility and uncertainty, the long-term perspective remains positive due to growing institutional involvement and Bitcoin’s use as a hedge. Some projections even suggest a potential rise to $250K by late 2026. Overall, fears of LTH panic selling are overblown, and the market shows signs of maturation and stability.

ambcrypto12/20 17:01

Bitcoin – Assessing why BTC LTH selling fears may be overblown

ambcrypto12/20 17:01

Bitcoin Price ‘Oversold,’ Says Tom Lee, as Community Pushes Back Against His ATH Predictions

Bitcoin is "extremely oversold" and positioned for a rebound, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, despite growing community pushback against his consistently bullish price predictions. Lee responded to analysis showing Bitcoin's RSI dropped below 30, historically signaling oversold conditions and potential bounces. However, his aggressive forecasts—including targets of $150,000 to $250,000 by late January or within months—have faced skepticism as Bitcoin trades at $88,195, down significantly from October highs. Analysts note a bearish technical structure, suggesting a possible drop to $70,000–$72,000 before a potential recovery. Critics on social media have grown increasingly dismissive of Lee's optimistic calls.

ccn.com12/20 08:07

Bitcoin Price ‘Oversold,’ Says Tom Lee, as Community Pushes Back Against His ATH Predictions

ccn.com12/20 08:07

Abandon Illusions, Prepare for the Most Grueling Time in the Crypto Market

The article argues that while cryptocurrency adoption will continue to accelerate, market valuations may remain depressed or decline further for a prolonged period. This decoupling between real-world usage and price action is presented not as a flaw, but as a necessary and healthy feature of the market's maturation. The author draws a parallel to the dot-com bubble, where internet user growth exploded even as the Nasdaq crashed. The core thesis is that the market is undergoing a painful but essential recalibration. Many assets were fundamentally overvalued, and the current phase will pressure-test business models, eliminating flawed projects and forcing rational valuations. Cryptocurrency is transitioning from a speculative asset to a core, "boring" infrastructure technology, much like the internet did. This shift creates discomfort. Builders, early investors, and retail token holders may see value captured by traditional companies and VCs that leverage the open infrastructure. The article posits that the biggest beneficiaries might be traditional and hybrid businesses that use crypto to improve efficiency, rather than the underlying protocols themselves. The author's outlook for near-term prices is not optimistic, warning that the process could be a prolonged test of patience. They advocate for a long-term perspective, capital preservation, and a focus on businesses with sound unit economics, while cautioning against over-financialized models and excessive infrastructure building. The conclusion is that a major market bottom, characterized by capitulation, has not yet been reached.

marsbit12/20 06:39

Abandon Illusions, Prepare for the Most Grueling Time in the Crypto Market