Bitcoin (BTC) versus gold has entered classic bottom territory as a key support retest begins.
Key points:
Bitcoin drops to 20 ounces of gold for the first time since early 2024.
This represents a the border between bull and bear-market territory, analysis says.
A three-year Bitcoin uptrend versus gold is now almost lost.
Bitcoin vs. gold: Bullish divergence at support
Analysis from crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on Saturday predicted “more upside on the horizon” for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has struggled in gold terms as the precious metal stays near all-time highs through the Q4 crypto market correction.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that BTC/XAU now trades at around 20 ounces — its lowest levels since early 2024.
For Van de Poppe, however, opportunity is in the air.
“The last times the markets have hit their low, that was the moment BTCUSD/Gold has hit the low as well. One of them is getting overvalued. One of them is getting undervalued,” he told X followers.
“In my thesis, Gold is getting overvalued, while #Bitcoin is getting undervalued.”
Historical comparisons show that in each Bitcoin bear cycle, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) dropping into “oversold” territory below 30 marked a long-term bottom for the pair.
“The best part: on the daily timeframe it starts to make a bullish divergence, signalling that there's more upside on the horizon in the short term,” Van de Poppe added.
While the daily RSI begins to move in the opposite direction of the price, the weekly RSI currently sits at 29.5, carving out lows not seen in nearly three years.
Support break “likely within the next few weeks”
Continuing on the topic, trading and commentary account Wealthmanager nonetheless reiterated that Bitcoin’s last bear market began thanks to the failure of BTC/XAU to hold the 20-ounce mark.
Related: Bears take over below $90K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
“Bitcoin against Gold is at a crucial support level. The last Bitcoin bear market officially started when we lost this support,” an X post warned.
“I expect we will consolidate here for a while, but a break is likely within the next few weeks.”
Crypto trader and entrepreneur Ted Pillows, meanwhile, eyed the loss of a long-term uptrend with the latest drop.
BTC/Gold has lost its 3-year uptrend.
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 20, 2025
A bad way to end 2025 for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/iDrQKS2jpq
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