Bitcoin Price Unlikely To See A 77% Drawdown Again – Bitwise CIO

bitcoinistОпубликовано 2026-02-07Обновлено 2026-02-07

Введение

Bitcoin has experienced significant recent declines, but Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests the worst may be over. In a recent report, he cited multiple factors for the downturn, including market cycle dynamics, shifting investor attention to AI and metals, and the major liquidation event on October 10, 2025, triggered by U.S. trade policy. Other concerns included Federal Reserve leadership speculation and macro risk-off sentiment. However, Hougan notes that long-term holders have slowed selling, and derivatives open interest has dropped to 2024 levels. While further declines are possible, he believes Bitcoin is now a more mature asset and unlikely to repeat past 77% drawdowns. Bear markets, he concludes, typically end in exhaustion rather than excitement. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,834, up over 4% in 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price has been on one of its worst runs in recent years, falling by double digits over the past week. While the premier cryptocurrency seems to be recovering well over the past day, the single-day 14% correction — on Thursday, February 5 — is an occurrence that has instilled fear in the market, and rightly so. In their latest report, a renowned pundit has tried to come up with answers to the questions currently swirling around the Bitcoin price.

Crypto Bear Markets End In Exhaustion, Not Excitement — Bitwise CIO

On Friday, February 6, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, answered questions the about the current structure and outlook for the Bitcoin price. The senior executive wrote about why the market is down, if it would fall further, and what would help the BTC price reach a bottom.

Hougan started by noting that there is never a single reason why the crypto market fell, as multiple factors are often at play. In this latest correction, the Bitwise CIO listed about six contributing factors, including front-running the four-year cycle, the loss of “attention investor” to AI and metals, and the infamous October 10 liquidation event.

It is important to note that the market and the Bitcoin price action has not been the same since the significant leveraged blowout on October 10, 2025. This historical liquidation event came off the back of United States President Donald Trump announcing a surprise 100% tariff on all Chinese goods.

Other factors highlighted in the Bitwise’s report include concerns around Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, quantum computing fears, and macro risk-off sentiment. Notably, it could be said that Bitcoin and the crypto market are not the only victims of this sentiment shift, as mineral and stock markets have also seen significant declines.

Hougan mentioned the good news is that the sell-off signs appears to be showing signs of exhaustion.

The Bitwise CIO wrote:

According to onchain data, long-term holders have stopped selling aggressively, and some are beginning to nibble around the edges. Open interest on bitcoin derivatives exchanges has fallen to levels last seen in 2024.

Hougan went on to say that, if history is to go by, it is possible for the Bitcoin price to fall further in the current structure. However, the investment expert also believes that premier cryptocurrency is a more mature asset, and is less likely to see a 77% correction as in the past.

While he could not pinpoint the exact time the Bitcoin price would reach a bottom, the Bitwise CIO revealed that the catalyst that could turn things around is simply time. “Crypto bear markets tend to end in exhaustion, not excitement,” Hougan concluded.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,834, reflecting an over 4% jump in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Связанные с этим вопросы

QAccording to Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan, what are some of the factors that contributed to the recent Bitcoin price correction?

AThe factors include front-running the four-year cycle, the loss of 'attention investor' to AI and metals, the significant leveraged blowout on October 10, 2025, concerns around Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, quantum computing fears, and macro risk-off sentiment.

QWhat event on October 10, 2025, is cited as a major reason for the change in Bitcoin's market action?

AThe event was a significant leveraged blowout that occurred after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a surprise 100% tariff on all Chinese goods.

QWhat on-chain data does Hougan point to as a sign that the sell-off may be showing exhaustion?

AHe points to data showing that long-term holders have stopped selling aggressively and some are beginning to buy, and that open interest on bitcoin derivatives exchanges has fallen to levels last seen in 2024.

QDoes the Bitwise CIO believe a 77% drawdown in Bitcoin's price is likely to happen again? Why or why not?

ANo, he believes it is less likely because Bitcoin is now a more mature asset compared to the past.

QWhat, according to Matt Hougan, is the catalyst that typically ends a crypto bear market?

AHe states that crypto bear markets tend to end in exhaustion, not excitement, and that the catalyst to turn things around is simply time.

Похожее

From Code to Cognition: A Ten-Thousand-Word Guide to the Evolution of the Robot Brain

"From Code to Cognition: The Evolution of Robot Brains" The journey of robotic intelligence has shifted dramatically from manually coded systems to AI-driven brains. For decades, robots relied on layered software stacks—perception, state estimation, planning, control—each handcrafted. While predictable, they lacked adaptability. The 2010s saw deep learning revolutionize perception (e.g., object detection) and control (via reinforcement learning), but learned skills remained narrow. The arrival of Large Language Models (LLMs) marked a turning point. LLMs acted as high-level planners, interpreting natural language instructions and generating sequences of actions for traditional robotic systems to execute. However, true integration came with Visual-Language-Action (VLA) models, which fused vision, language, and motion prediction into a single network. Pioneered by models like RT-2 and open-source projects like OpenVLA, VLAs enable robots to reason and act directly from visual input and commands. The most advanced humanoid robots now employ a "dual-brain" architecture: a slow-thinking, large VLA (System 2) for reasoning and planning, and a fast-reacting, small network (System 1) for high-frequency motion control, sometimes with an even lower-level System 0 for balance. This split balances cognition with the physics of real-time movement. Computation is split between onboard hardware (e.g., NVIDIA Jetson) for safety-critical control loops and cloud/edge servers for non-critical tasks like learning and interfaces. A crucial driver is the open-source ecosystem—models like GR00T and OpenVLA allow startups to build upon pre-trained brains and fine-tune them with their own data, accelerating development. Despite progress, current systems struggle with recovery from errors, sample inefficiency, and long-horizon tasks. This has spurred the rise of **World Models**—neural networks that predict the consequences of actions. By simulating possible futures before acting (like NVIDIA Cosmos or Meta V-JEPA), robots can plan, recover, and generalize better. This represents the next frontier: shifting intelligence from learned reactions to an internal model of physics and cause-and-effect. The field is rapidly evolving. While not yet at its "ChatGPT moment," the convergence of cheaper hardware, scalable simulation, and world models points toward robots that are increasingly capable, adaptive, and useful. The question is shifting from "what can robots do?" to "what *should* they do?"

marsbit20 мин. назад

From Code to Cognition: A Ten-Thousand-Word Guide to the Evolution of the Robot Brain

marsbit20 мин. назад

AI Bubble Is Bursting

The AI Bubble is Bursting: A Necessary Purge on the Path to Ubiquitous Intelligence Market volatility has reignited debates about an AI bubble, with figures like Ray Dalio pointing to high valuations. However, this parallels the dot-com bubble, which, despite its crash, laid the physical infrastructure for today's internet era. The current AI investment frenzy, with tech giants planning trillions in infrastructure spending far outstripping current AI application revenues, appears similarly imbalanced. This 'bubble' is seen as an inevitable phase for a disruptive technology, paying the "innovation tax." Critically, AI inference costs have plummeted over 99.7% since 2023, making intelligence nearly free at the margin. This hasn't reduced spending but has instead unlocked massive new demand, as seen in enterprise AI cloud expenditure tripling. This follows the Jevons Paradox: efficiency gains lead to greater total consumption. The market is now entering a cleansing phase, weeding out speculative ventures lacking real moats. The deeper shift is a move from capital expenditure (CapEx) on hardware to value creation in operational expenditure (OpEx) through AI applications that solve real industry problems. While infrastructure valuations are high, rapid earnings growth from widespread AI adoption across sectors—from manufacturing and finance to law and healthcare—may digest these valuations over time. Ultimately, this creative destruction will leave behind robust infrastructure and optimized models, cheaply powering an AI-augmented future for all industries, much as the internet became indispensable after its own bubble burst. The core productive potential remains undiminished.

链捕手30 мин. назад

The AI Bubble is Bursting

The article argues that while a bubble in the AI sector is real and is currently showing signs of deflation, this is a typical, even necessary, phase for a transformative technology. It draws parallels to the dot-com bubble, where speculative excess was followed by the consolidation of internet infrastructure, enabling the digital age. Similarly, today's massive investments in AI infrastructure (data centers, power, cooling) far outpace current application-layer revenue, creating a valuation imbalance. However, the author contends this apparent bubble is not a sign of failure but of a transition. Key drivers include the plummeting cost of AI inference (over 99.7% in two years), which, per Jevons Paradox, has unleashed massive new demand as AI moves from simple tasks to complex agentic workflows across all industries. The market is now cleansing itself of shallow, speculative ventures, shifting value from capital expenditure (CapEx) on hardware to operational expenditure (OpEx) on transformative AI applications. The conclusion is that the underlying productive force of AI is undeniable. The current financial correction will eliminate weak players, leaving behind robust infrastructure and efficient models. This will ultimately fuel an "AI+" era where intelligence becomes as ubiquitous and essential as the internet, embedding itself into every sector of the economy.

marsbit31 мин. назад

marsbit31 мин. назад

The Next Bitcoin ETF Boom May Be Coming From Japan – Here’s Why

Despite recent outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, market attention is shifting to Japan as the potential next major market for such funds. This follows regulatory reforms in Japan that are moving cryptocurrency oversight to a financial instruments framework, potentially enabling Bitcoin ETF approval. Analysis suggests a Japanese spot Bitcoin ETF could attract significant inflows, ranging from ¥900 billion ($5.61 billion) in a conservative scenario to ¥3.1 trillion ($19.34 billion) in a bullish one. A base-case estimate of ¥1.4 trillion ($8.73 billion) would equate to demand for roughly 140,000 BTC. Beyond price impact, a Japanese ETF is seen as boosting Bitcoin's legitimacy and accessibility for investors and institutions. Bitcoin's price was around $61,038 at the time of writing, down 2.81% over 24 hours.

bitcoinist51 мин. назад

The Next Bitcoin ETF Boom May Be Coming From Japan – Here’s Why

bitcoinist51 мин. назад

Trump's 43 Minutes: The Strongman Narrative Unravels, the Media War Escalates

President Donald Trump's first public appearance in over a week, intended to project control amidst health concerns and political challenges, devolved into a 43-minute display of grievance and insecurity. He focused initially on a reflecting pool renovation, compared his rally size to Martin Luther King Jr.'s, and repeatedly attacked political opponents, judges, and U.S. cities. He signed executive orders, including one weakening job protections for senior federal employees, potentially replacing expertise with loyalty. His speech meandered to topics like communism before ending abruptly. The article highlights Trump's agitated, defensive state and the systemic pressures enabling his power. It details his personal attack on a CNN reporter, framing it as part of a broader assault on independent media to undermine public trust in unfavorable facts. This pressure is exemplified by the reported erosion of editorial independence at CBS. The author argues that as mainstream media faces political and commercial pressures, supporting independent journalists becomes crucial for preserving truthful information. The piece concludes by noting a symbolic House vote challenging Trump's Iran actions, suggesting growing Republican dissent, and frames financial support for independent media as a direct form of resistance.

marsbit5 ч. назад

Trump's 43 Minutes: The Strongman Narrative Unravels, the Media War Escalates

marsbit5 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот

Фьючерсы

Популярные статьи

Тест по Bitcoin Биткоина

HTX Learn: Изучите Bitcoin halving и Заработаете Токены USDT

3.1k просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2024.04.16Обновлено 2024.04.16

Что такое $BITCOIN

ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN): Комплексный анализ Введение в ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) — это проект на основе блокчейна, работающий в сети Solana, который стремится объединить характеристики традиционных драгоценных металлов с инновациями децентрализованных технологий. Хотя он носит имя Биткойн, часто называемого “цифровым золотом” из-за его восприятия как средства хранения ценности, ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО является отдельным токеном, предназначенным для создания уникальной экосистемы в ландшафте Web3. Его цель — позиционировать себя как жизнеспособный альтернативный цифровой актив, хотя детали его применения и функциональности все еще развиваются. Что такое ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN)? ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) — это токен криптовалюты, специально разработанный для использования в блокчейне Solana. В отличие от Биткойна, который выполняет широко признанную роль хранения ценности, этот токен, похоже, сосредоточен на более широких приложениях и характеристиках. Примечательные аспекты включают: Инфраструктура блокчейна: Токен построен на блокчейне Solana, известном своей способностью обрабатывать высокоскоростные и недорогие транзакции. Динамика предложения: ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО имеет максимальное предложение, ограниченное 100 квадриллионами токенов (100P $BITCOIN), хотя детали о его обращающемся предложении в настоящее время не раскрыты. Утилита: Хотя точные функциональные возможности не описаны, есть указания на то, что токен может быть использован для различных приложений, потенциально связанных с децентрализованными приложениями (dApps) или стратегиями токенизации активов. Кто создатель ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN)? На данный момент личность создателей и команды разработчиков, стоящих за ЦИФРОВЫМ ЗОЛОТОМ ($BITCOIN), остается неизвестной. Эта ситуация типична для многих инновационных проектов в области блокчейна, особенно тех, которые связаны с децентрализованными финансами и феноменом мем-криптовалют. Хотя такая анонимность может способствовать культуре, ориентированной на сообщество, она усиливает опасения по поводу управления и ответственности. Кто инвесторы ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN)? Доступная информация указывает на то, что у ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN) нет известных институциональных спонсоров или значительных венчурных капиталовложений. Проект, похоже, функционирует по модели пирингового взаимодействия, сосредоточенной на поддержке и принятии сообществом, а не на традиционных путях финансирования. Его активность и ликвидность в основном сосредоточены на децентрализованных биржах (DEX), таких как PumpSwap, а не на устоявшихся централизованных торговых платформах, что еще больше подчеркивает его подход, ориентированный на grassroots. Как работает ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) Операционные механизмы ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN) можно подробно описать на основе его дизайна блокчейна и характеристик сети: Механизм консенсуса: Используя уникальный механизм доказательства истории (PoH) Solana в сочетании с моделью доказательства доли (PoS), проект обеспечивает эффективную валидацию транзакций, что способствует высокой производительности сети. Токеномика: Хотя конкретные дефляционные механизмы не были подробно описаны, большое максимальное предложение токенов подразумевает, что оно может быть предназначено для микротранзакций или нишевых случаев использования, которые еще предстоит определить. Интероперабельность: Существует потенциал для интеграции с более широкой экосистемой Solana, включая различные платформы децентрализованных финансов (DeFi). Однако детали относительно конкретных интеграций остаются неуточненными. Хронология ключевых событий Вот хронология, которая подчеркивает значимые вехи, касающиеся ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN): 2023: Первоначальное развертывание токена происходит в блокчейне Solana, отмеченное его адресом контракта. 2024: ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО приобретает видимость, когда оно становится доступным для торговли на децентрализованных биржах, таких как PumpSwap, позволяя пользователям обменивать его на SOL. 2025: Проект наблюдает спорадическую торговую активность и потенциальный интерес к инициативам, возглавляемым сообществом, хотя на данный момент не зафиксировано никаких значительных партнерств или технических достижений. Критический анализ Сильные стороны Масштабируемость: Основная инфраструктура Solana поддерживает высокие объемы транзакций, что может повысить полезность $BITCOIN в различных сценариях транзакций. Доступность: Потенциально низкая цена торговли за токен может привлечь розничных инвесторов, способствуя более широкому участию благодаря возможностям дробного владения. Риски Отсутствие прозрачности: Отсутствие публично известных спонсоров, разработчиков или процесса аудита может вызвать скептицизм относительно устойчивости и надежности проекта. Волатильность рынка: Торговая активность сильно зависит от спекулятивного поведения, что может привести к значительной волатильности цен и неопределенности для инвесторов. Заключение ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) является интригующим, но неоднозначным проектом в быстро развивающейся экосистеме Solana. Хотя он пытается использовать нарратив “цифрового золота”, его отход от установленной роли Биткойна как средства хранения ценности подчеркивает необходимость более четкого различения его предполагаемой утилиты и структуры управления. Будущее принятие и усвоение, вероятно, будут зависеть от решения текущей непрозрачности и более четкого определения его операционных и экономических стратегий. Примечание: Этот отчет охватывает синтезированную информацию, доступную на октябрь 2023 года, и с тех пор могут произойти события.

99 просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.05.13Обновлено 2025.05.13

Fractal Bitcoin: масштабирование Биткоина с помощью рекурсивной системы

Fractal Bitcoin — масштабное Layer-1-решнение, созданное на базе кода Биткоина, позволяющего достигать бесконечного масштабирования с помощью рекурсивного подхода.

2.3k просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.06.30Обновлено 2025.06.30

Fractal Bitcoin: масштабирование Биткоина с помощью рекурсивной системы

Обсуждения

Добро пожаловать в Сообщество HTX. Здесь вы сможете быть в курсе последних новостей о развитии платформы и получить доступ к профессиональной аналитической информации о рынке. Мнения пользователей о цене на BTC (BTC) представлены ниже.