Bitcoin price eyes $100K, yet breakout signals are missing

Bitcoin [BTC] managed to climb above the $90k level after making a sweep of the $90,250 lows in the late hours of Sunday.

Crypto analyst Maartunn pointed out that Mondays have been the strongest trading days over the past month.

The Monday move does not necessarily continue. Four of the past five Mondays witnessed a liquidity grab to the upside before making a V-reversal to hunt the long liquidations clustered below the day’s open.

Regarding the longer-term expectations, some crypto analysts believe that we have witnessed the onset of a bear market for BTC.

The growing odds of a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 could fuel bullish sentiment and drive the price higher this year.

Bitcoin price: The $100k challenge

An Adler Crypto Insight post this week shed light on why BTC has a bearish bias. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. used the HODL structure and 30-day flows metric to demonstrate how the ownership structure has stabilized slightly.

From the 5th to the 11th of January, long-term holders (6 months or more) saw an increase in realized cap share from 43.29% to 43.69%. This 0.40% change indicated a gradual shift in ownership toward LTHs.

Simultaneously, 30-day migration into the LTH 12-month+ segment decreased from 2.12% to 1.81%.

This was proof that the growth in the 12-month long-term holders’ share in realized cap was a result of a transition of 6-12-month old coins into the 12-month+ segment and not due to increased accumulation in the 12-month or older category.

There was no new influx of long-term HODLers. Rather, at current Bitcoin price levels, half of the holders over the past year were not yet ready to capitulate since losses remain tolerable.

Over the past ten days, the long-term holder distribution pressure remained in the neutral distribution zone. The favorable accumulation regime, where the metric had been in recent weeks, has ended.

It is likely that as the Bitcoin price moves toward $100k, distribution pressure from long-term holders increases.

The 3-month liquidation heatmap agreed that the $100k area was vital. The $96k-$100k was a magnetic zone with a considerable pocket of liquidity.

Since price is attracted to liquidity, it is highly likely that BTC rallies toward $100k in January.

Long-term holder distribution and new whales exiting the market at breakeven around $99k threatened to derail a breakout past the key psychological resistance.

Final Thoughts

• The Bitcoin price jumped above $92k to give an encouraging start to the week, but Mondays have been volatile in recent weeks.
• The long-term holder distribution pressure could increase as BTC advances toward $100k, warned a crypto analyst.