Arthur Hayes Predicts $1M Bitcoin Peak Before 2029 Crash

Arthur Hayes, the CIO of Maelstrom and Co-Founder of BitMEX, had a conversation about where Bitcoin could be headed next. In an interview shared by Mr. Swift on X, Hayes outlined his “Bitcoin masterplan,” forecasting a surge to $1 million by 2028 before a dramatic market collapse in 2029. However, the video was later deleted from YouTube for violating community guidelines.

Hayes, known for his sharp macro insights, said Bitcoin remains the safest investment. He argued that Bitcoin’s proven 15-year history gives it a unique edge over speculative tokens. 

Moreover, he keeps a large portion of his wealth in Bitcoin, describing it as a reliable hedge against failing fiat systems. “Bitcoin has outperformed all other assets historically,” he said, emphasizing its strength as a store of value.

Bitcoin vs fiat and market outlook

Hayes said that he doesn’t trust traditional money, especially the US dollar, which he believes is losing strength. He pointed to countries like Argentina, where people struggle to access stable currencies, as proof that crypto is becoming more useful. Along with Bitcoin, he also values Gold because it’s real, widely trusted, and backed by central banks. That’s why he spreads his investments across gold, government bonds, and other solid assets.

Hayes thinks the current crypto market looks overpriced and that money is getting harder to move around. Because of that, he’s careful about where he invests. He still looks at new crypto projects but only picks a few that seem promising since beating Bitcoin’s performance is tough. He also expects prices to hit a peak around 2028, then drop sharply between 2029 and 2030, a fall that could give patient investors a chance to buy in at lower prices.

Different cycle, different outcome

In his recent blog post, “Long Live the King,” Hayes challenged conventional cycle theories. “They apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past,” he wrote. “And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.”

Analyst Justin d’Anethan from Arctic Digital echoed a similar tone. “Bitcoin’s pullback after the ATH looks like a pause rather than a pivot,” he said, noting strong ETF inflows and shrinking exchange balances.

Arthur Hayes’ outlook highlights both risk and uncertainty. Bitcoin might rise further, but the real challenge lies in timing the market before the next downturn.

Also Read: Bitcoin Cycle Poised to Extend Beyond 2026: Mike Alfred

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