30% of Bitcoin is locked up by big players – So why is BTC’s price falling?

ambcryptoОпубликовано 2025-12-16Обновлено 2025-12-16

Введение

Bitcoin's price decline is occurring despite significant institutional accumulation, with large holders now controlling nearly 30% of the circulating supply (approximately 5.94 million BTC). This institutional ownership, spread across ETFs, public companies, and government treasuries, has reduced sell-side pressure. Major U.S. financial institutions are also expanding Bitcoin-related services. However, the recent price drop was primarily driven by leveraged long liquidations in the futures market. As highly leveraged positions were automatically closed during price dips, forced sell orders triggered a cascading effect. The key level to watch is Bitcoin's two-year simple moving average (SMA) near $82,800, which has historically acted as a critical regime indicator. A monthly close below this level could signal further downward pressure, while holding above it maintains long-term bullish structure.

Institutions love their Bitcoin! Large holders now control a huge share of supply, U.S. banks are rolling out more Bitcoin-linked products, and demand hasn’t disappeared.

Yet prices have slipped, because leverage broke first.

The big hands holding up Bitcoin

Source: Glassnode

Institutional holders now control roughly 5.94 million Bitcoin [BTC] (close to 30% of the circulating supply). The holding is spread across exchanges, ETFs, public companies, and government treasuries.

Long-term balances are rising, while exchange-held BTC has stagnated. This means reduced sell-side pressure over time.

Source: River

Meanwhile, Wall Street doesn’t want to miss out.

According to River, 14 of the top 25 U.S. banks are now building or exploring Bitcoin products, from trading desks to custody services. These are largely aimed at high-net-worth clients.

The infrastructure is being built before the next demand phase arrives.

The accumulation makes the latest dip easier to misread.

The sell-off was led by leverage snapping in the Futures market. As the chart shows, every sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price lines up with spikes in long liquidations across exchanges.

Source: CryptoQuant

In recent weeks, traders piled into highly leveraged long positions, betting on more upside. When prices slipped below key levels, those positions were automatically closed.

This caused forced market sell orders. This kind of selling snowballs fast, with one liquidation pushing price lower, setting off the next.

A line the market can’t ignore

Now the attention shifts to where Bitcoin stands structurally.

On the long-term 2Y SMA Multiplier chart from Alphractal, BTC is dangerously close to its two-year SMA, at near $82,800. This level has mattered in every cycle.

Source: Alphractal

Monthly closes below the 2Y SMA have so far coincided with long bear phases, while holding or reclaiming it has helped reset the market after excess. It acts like a regime marker.

As the end of the year comes to a close, holding above this line keeps the long-term structure intact. Slipping below it would mean more pressure ahead.

Final Thoughts

Nearly 30% of Bitcoin’s supply is now owned by institutions.
Recent price weakness came from leverage liquidations. $82,800 (2Y SMA) is now the key line to watch.

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