# Liquidity Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Liquidity", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential bullish December, challenging a decade-old bearish seasonal pattern where November losses typically extend into year-end declines. Key factors supporting this shift include reduced leverage, with open interest dropping from $94 billion to $60 billion, and Bitcoin’s price reclaiming its monthly volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution. Liquidity dynamics have also shifted, with deep liquidity clusters moving upward, and around $3 billion in short positions set to liquidate near $96,000. Market structure diverges from historical cycles due to spot ETF inflows, introducing constant structural demand and accelerating price discovery. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, while not obsolete, is no longer time-aligned, resembling extended accumulation phases like mid-2016 or late-2019. Macro liquidity (M2) growth has plateaued, creating a late-cycle environment where risk assets rally despite underlying economic softening. Supporting indicators, such as CNY/USD and ETH/BTC correlations, along with improving PMI data and gold’s relative strength, suggest continued risk-on momentum rather than cycle fatigue. While buy-sell ratios show urgency, analysts caution this may reflect positioning squeeze rather than sustainable accumulation. Overall, December’s performance may depend more on structural forces—ETF flows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macro correlations—than traditional halving-driven周期 patterns.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 12:20

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December

cointelegraph_中文12/12 12:20

Glassnode: Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Big Fluctuations Coming?

Bitcoin remains trapped in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized losses, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite persistent selling pressure, patient demand has anchored the price above the Realized Price (~$81.3K), though reclaiming the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$102.7K) remains a key resistance level. On-chain metrics show increased capitulation from recent buyers and sustained distribution by long-term investors. Off-chain conditions are weak, with negative ETF flows, thin spot liquidity, and muted speculative interest in futures markets. Options traders are pricing in near-term volatility, accumulating downside protection ahead of the FOMC meeting. The market’s direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and selling pressure subsides, or if the current time-driven bearish pressure persists. Post-FOMC, implied volatility is expected to decay into year-end barring a hawkish surprise.

marsbit12/12 09:25

Glassnode: Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Big Fluctuations Coming?

marsbit12/12 09:25

Despite Fed Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Stalls at $94,000

Despite the Federal Reserve's policy pivot, Bitcoin's (BTC) rally continues to face resistance around the $94,000 mark. Even as traders grow optimistic about U.S. monetary policy and long-term crypto market prospects, BTC has struggled to break through this key level after multiple attempts. Key factors include significant liquidity contraction, particularly in stablecoin flows, which have dropped nearly 50% from August’s $158 billion to around $76 billion this month. This reduction in buying power has limited upward momentum. Analysts note that recent price rebounds were driven more by short-selling pressure easing rather than strong capital inflows. The $94,000 to $98,000 range remains a critical liquidity zone. However, failure to break above $94,000 could expose BTC to increased volatility and a potential drop toward $88,000. A break below this support might trigger further declines toward $84,000 or even the quarterly low near $80,600. While some traders view the current consolidation as a healthy shakeout of weak positions, Bitcoin must achieve a weekly close above $90,000 (ideally near $93,000) to rebuild structural support for a potential push toward $96,000.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 05:41

Despite Fed Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Stalls at $94,000

cointelegraph_中文12/12 05:41

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin (BTC) Unlikely to Break $100,000 Before Year-End

According to prediction markets, Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to surpass the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. Data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi shows the probability of BTC reaching this milestone by January 1st is only around 30-34%. This bearish sentiment follows a significant weakening of bullish momentum since Bitcoin's price crash on October 10th. Several factors are suppressing short-term price recovery, including growing macroeconomic uncertainty and a notable slowdown in Bitcoin purchases by large corporate buyers, such as MicroStrategy. Data from Capriole Investments indicates that the daily rate of corporate BTC acquisitions has been consistently declining, suggesting institutional investors may be experiencing fatigue. Technically, BTC is currently facing resistance around the $ $94,000 level. Analysts note that the price is consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern. A breakout above $ $94,589 could potentially push the price toward the $ $98,000 to $ $100,000 liquidity zone, though this is seen as a challenging hurdle in the short term.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 03:18

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin (BTC) Unlikely to Break $100,000 Before Year-End

cointelegraph_中文12/12 03:18

USDT Rating Controversy: S&P's 'Stability Scale', Tether's 'Market Debate', and the 'Shadow Central Bank' Transformation

The recent S&P Global downgrade of USDT's stability rating from "constrained" to "weak" has ignited a significant debate between traditional finance (TradFi) and the crypto ecosystem. S&P's decision was primarily based on concerns over Tether's reserve composition—now comprising ~24% in higher-volatility assets like Bitcoin and gold—and a perceived lack of governance transparency, fearing these assets could not be liquidated quickly in a mass redemption scenario. Tether countered by emphasizing its proven market resilience, having maintained its peg through multiple past crises, and its real-time reserve reporting. The core of the article identifies a fundamental clash in risk assessment frameworks: TradFi prioritizes redeemability and capital adequacy in extreme stress, while the crypto market's stability is underpinned by 24/7 on-chain liquidity and automated清算 mechanisms. The report further analyzes Tether's strategic shift from a simple stablecoin issuer to a "shadow central bank," diversifying its reserves into assets like BTC and gold for inflation hedging, yield generation, and de-dollarization. This strategy, while profitable in a bull market (e.g., $10B profit in 2025), introduces cyclical risks if asset prices fall. Looking forward, the article suggests the need for a dual-rating system: a traditional stability rating for redeemability and a new investment risk rating for收益 sustainability and exposure management, reflecting the evolving and divergent needs of the market.

marsbit12/12 02:17

USDT Rating Controversy: S&P's 'Stability Scale', Tether's 'Market Debate', and the 'Shadow Central Bank' Transformation

marsbit12/12 02:17

Big Short Burry Warns: Fed's RMP Aims to Conceal Banking System Fragility, Essentially a Restart of QE

Michael Burry, of "The Big Short" fame, issued a warning that the Federal Reserve's new Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program is a covert form of quantitative easing (QE) designed to mask deep-seated vulnerabilities in the US banking system. He argues that the need to inject liquidity, despite over $3 trillion in bank reserves, signals systemic fragility, not strength, stemming from the 2023 banking crisis. Burry contends that each crisis now forces the Fed to permanently expand its balance sheet to prevent funding crises. The market reaction showed rising 2-month Treasury yields and falling 10-year yield, alongside ongoing repo market volatility, raising concerns about year-end funding stress. He cautions against bullish bank stock advice and prefers Treasury money market funds for large deposits. While the Fed states RMP is a technical operation to ensure sufficient liquidity, Burry sees it as evidence of a weakened financial system reliant on constant central bank support.

深潮12/12 01:37

Big Short Burry Warns: Fed's RMP Aims to Conceal Banking System Fragility, Essentially a Restart of QE

深潮12/12 01:37

Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Is a Big Fluctuation Coming?

Bitcoin remains trapped in a structurally fragile range, with rising unrealized losses, elevated realized losses, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite persistent selling pressure, patient demand has anchored the price above the Realized Price (~$81.3K). A reclaim of the $95K level (0.75 cost basis quantile) and the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$102.7K) is possible if seller exhaustion emerges. Off-chain conditions remain weak, with negative ETF flows, thin spot liquidity, and muted speculative interest in futures markets. Options markets show a defensive stance, with traders accumulating short-term implied volatility and demanding downside protection ahead of the FOMC meeting. Market stability relies on patient buyers absorbing sales, but the path forward depends on whether liquidity improves and sellers retreat, or if time-driven bearish pressure persists. Post-FOMC, implied volatility is expected to decay into year-end barring a hawkish surprise.

深潮12/11 22:37

Bitcoin Weak and Volatile, Is a Big Fluctuation Coming?

深潮12/11 22:37

Only 3 Points for the Public Chain Moat? Alliance DAO Founder's Remarks Ignite Crypto Community Debate

In a recent debate sparked by Alliance DAO founder qw (@QwQiao), the crypto community is divided over the "moat" of blockchain technology. Qw controversially rated the moat of L1 public chains at just 3/10, arguing that their defensibility is limited compared to traditional tech and financial giants like Microsoft (10/10), Apple (10/10), or Visa (10/10). He suggested that even top crypto projects only score around 5/10, with Bitcoin being an exception at 9/10 due to its unique founding narrative and Lindy effect. The discussion originated from a Paradigm researcher’s critique that "liquidity is not a moat," which drew mixed reactions. Some, like Dragonfly Capital’s Haseeb, strongly disagreed with qw, pointing to Ethereum’s decade-long dominance despite numerous challengers as proof of a significant moat. Others argued that network effects, trust, and ecosystem maturity are critical moats in crypto. The article explores seven potential components of a public chain’s moat: technical vision, founder influence, developer/user networks, application ecosystems, token market cap, external connectivity, and long-term roadmaps. It concludes that the crypto industry is still too small and nascent to focus heavily on moat analysis—instead, it should prioritize scaling users, capital, and real-world utility.

Odaily星球日报12/11 13:43

Only 3 Points for the Public Chain Moat? Alliance DAO Founder's Remarks Ignite Crypto Community Debate

Odaily星球日报12/11 13:43

On the Night of the Fed Rate Cut, the Real Game Is Trump's 'Monetary Power Grab'

Tonight marks the Federal Reserve's most anticipated interest rate decision of the year. While a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected, the key variable for risk assets is whether the Fed will restart liquidity injections, potentially through a $45 billion monthly short-term debt purchase program starting in January. This signals a stealth return to quantitative easing. The larger tension stems from an unprecedented shift in monetary power. President Trump is rapidly reshaping the Federal Reserve, not just by replacing its chair but by redrawing the boundaries of monetary authority. The long-held principle of central bank independence is being eroded as the Treasury Department seeks to reclaim control over long-term interest rates, liquidity, and the balance sheet. This transition to a "fiscally dominated monetary era" is the underlying logic connecting recent market events. Despite a 40 billion outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, analysis suggests this was not panic selling but the unwinding of leveraged basis trades, leaving a healthier, less leveraged market. Meanwhile, led by Michael Saylor, made its largest Bitcoin purchase in months ($963 million), and Tom Lee's BitMine significantly increased its Ethereum holdings, signaling strong institutional conviction during the downturn. The macro shift implies higher market volatility as the old order fractures. While improved liquidity may provide a floor for Bitcoin, its longer-term trajectory awaits clarity within this new monetary framework, where Treasury, not the Fed, may ultimately dictate key financial conditions.

marsbit12/11 10:18

On the Night of the Fed Rate Cut, the Real Game Is Trump's 'Monetary Power Grab'

marsbit12/11 10:18

BTC Drops Below $90,000: Rate Cut Realized Equals Exhausted Positive News

Fed Chair Powell announced a 25-basis-point rate reduction, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut this year. However, the dot plot revealed significant internal divergence, with seven officials dissenting—six preferring no cut. The median rate projection remained unchanged from September, signaling a likely slowdown in future easing, with only one cut anticipated in 2025 and 2026 each. This mixed, cautious signal failed to boost market confidence. Bitcoin fell below $90,000, Ethereum dropped under $3,200, and Solana declined beneath $130. Most crypto sectors saw losses, with over $468 million in liquidations—$331 million from long positions. Analysts attribute the downturn to year-end liquidity constraints and subdued sentiment. Greeks.live noted that despite the Fed’s dovish move, low holiday liquidity limits bullish momentum. ING expects two 2026 rate cuts if inflation nears 2%, while Goldman Sachs views further easing as contingent on weaker labor data. Short-term, the market is expected to remain defensive amid thin liquidity. Longer-term, the focus shifts to labor market performance—should data weaken, more aggressive rate cuts may follow. Until macro conditions clear and liquidity returns, cautious positioning is advised.

Odaily星球日报12/11 04:09

BTC Drops Below $90,000: Rate Cut Realized Equals Exhausted Positive News