# Fed Related Articles

Bitcoin Market Conditions Have Improved. What's Still Needed for Price Growth?

Bitcoin's market conditions have improved, but sustained growth requires more time and factors. The first week of August saw strong institutional buying via spot ETFs, with record weekly inflows of $853.5 million and a price rise above $65k. However, analysts warn one good week does not constitute a structural turnaround. Bitcoin's performance lagged behind traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold, indicating underlying caution. The main driver for the rally was weak U.S. jobs data, raising expectations of Fed rate cuts. For a confirmed bullish trend, analysts at Wintermute emphasize the need for stable capital inflows into ETFs and corporate treasuries continuing "until the end of summer." They monitor three liquidity sources: ETFs, corporate crypto treasuries, and stablecoins. While the first two show signs of life, the stablecoin market has stagnated since May, with its total capitalization falling below $300 billion, partly due to regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. The report also notes a "quiet" institutionalization trend, where traditional banks like JPMorgan and Citi are adopting blockchain infrastructure for tokenizing client deposits, rather than using public stablecoins. Meanwhile, the pending U.S. CLARITY Act adds regulatory uncertainty. In summary, while institutional demand is returning, Bitcoin needs prolonged ETF inflows, stable macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory clarity to sustain a significant price increase.

cryptonews.ru08/12 11:36

US CPI Data Tonight May Significantly Weaken September Rate Hike Expectations?

The key to whether the Fed will raise rates in September may hinge on tonight's US CPI data for July, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. Market consensus expects a 0.1% MoM increase in headline CPI and 0.2% for core CPI. Following a surprisingly weak non-farm payrolls report last week, this data is a crucial test for September rate hike expectations. A mild reading could further dampen hike probabilities, while a hotter-than-expected report would increase pressure on the already hawkish-leaning Fed. Current market pricing for a September hike is around 50%. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and others predict data will likely land within expectations. Headline inflation is expected to be subdued mainly due to falling energy prices, while core inflation remains above target. Despite the likely mild data, hawkish voices within the Fed are growing. Several officials have recently indicated a preference for further tightening. The Fed's policy stance remains highly sensitive to inflation data. Market analysis suggests equities and bonds will face pressure if data is hot. A Morgan Stanley scenario analysis shows S&P 500 reactions ranging from a 2.5% drop to a 2% gain based on the core CPI outcome. Longer-term concerns include potential "AI inflation" from rising memory prices and market signals suggesting strong earnings growth may necessitate higher rates. Ultimately, even with tonight's data, the September decision remains open. The Fed will see additional employment, CPI, and PPI reports before its September meeting, leaving room for policy expectations to shift further.

marsbit08/12 10:01

Wall Street Morning Report: Three Major Indices Continue to Decline, Market Cautious Ahead of CPI, AI Computing Power & Optical Communication Benefit from Strong CoreWeave & Lumentum Earnings

marsbit08/12 04:58

With Half of the FOMC Already Hawkish, Will Wash Become a "Lame Duck" Chairman?

Federal Reserve Chair Walsh faces an unusual authority crisis as hawkish FOMC members gain influence. According to sources familiar with his thinking, if upcoming inflation data runs hot, Walsh is prepared to support a rate hike at the September meeting—a move seen as crisis management after his perceived lack of clear guidance in July. Currently, six FOMC members are inclined to raise rates if inflation remains persistent. This includes three who dissented in July for an immediate hike, two who indicated they are close to joining the hawkish camp, and one governor who has publicly warned of potential tightening. With 12 voting members and no tie-breaking vote for the chair, a coalition of six could push through a rate increase without Walsh's endorsement, potentially forcing him to either follow the majority or stand isolated. Market pricing has also shifted, with short-term interest rate futures now reflecting firmer expectations for one to two hikes this year. While Walsh's team points to stable long-term inflation expectations as a sign of policy credibility, analysts argue the overall market signal points toward tightening. The situation illustrates how a central bank chair can lose control of the committee's direction if communication falters and a hawkish consensus forms.

marsbit08/12 02:46

Weak US Employment and $1.1 Billion into ETFs: Wintermute on the New Rally and Inflation Risks

Analysts at Wintermute stated that the cryptocurrency market gained support following a weak U.S. jobs report. Against this backdrop, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted $1.1 billion in inflows over the week. While demand via ETFs has recovered, there is insufficient data to confirm a sustainable shift in market sentiment. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $853.5 million over five sessions, the best weekly result since mid-April. Ethereum ETFs attracted another $244.9 million, marking a fifth consecutive positive week. Over 80% of the inflows into both groups went to BlackRock. Wintermute notes that relatively restrained trading volumes may indicate large investors gradually building positions rather than short-term capital rotation. A disappointing U.S. employment report for July, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs versus an expected gain of 80,000, led markets to reduce the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. This supported risk assets, including crypto. However, Wintermute cautions that the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report on August 12 poses a key test. Higher-than-expected inflation could revive rate hike fears above 50%, risking a reversal of the recent rally. Beyond ETFs, institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure continues, exemplified by Wells Fargo's planned launch of tokenized deposits. Wintermute views this as banks modernizing their settlement systems, which could eventually support broader digital asset integration. The firm concludes that while the ETF inflows are a positive signal, one week is not enough to confirm a durable trend, and the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data, particularly inflation.

cryptonews.ru08/11 21:06

Gold Reaches Two-Month High, Exceeding $4,400, Amid Continued Accumulation of Reserves by China

Gold prices soared to over $4,400, hitting a two-month high, driven primarily by a weak U.S. jobs report and sustained gold accumulation by China. The July employment data, showing a loss of 23,000 jobs against expectations of an 80,000 gain, shifted market expectations away from near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. This pushed Treasury yields down, boosting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Technically, gold broke above its 100-day moving average, attracting new buyers. China provided further support, with the People's Bank of China extending its gold-buying streak to 21 months by adding roughly 20 tons in July. This consistent central bank demand, valued for gold's sovereignty from other governments, has underpinned prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, added a safe-haven bid. Analysts like Peter Schiff noted gold breaking its recent negative correlation with oil, suggesting both could rise together on inflation fears amid economic weakening. The rally's sustainability hinges on upcoming U.S. inflation data. A softer CPI could fuel further gains toward $4,500, while hotter data could reverse the rally by strengthening the dollar and yields.

cryptonews.ru08/11 20:47

New Fed Communications Liaison: Despite Walsh's 'Tough Talk', Data Reigns Supreme; Two Inflation Reports May Decide September's Rate Fate

Upcoming inflation reports will be a critical test for Fed Chair Wash's credibility. The July CPI and core PCE data, expected around 0.2% month-on-month for core CPI, will likely determine whether the Fed hikes rates in September or holds steady. Data above this threshold would pressure Wash to act on his hawkish rhetoric or risk widening a credibility gap opened after a vague July press conference. Analyst Nick Timiraos notes that market confidence was shaken by Wash's performance in July, where he gave ambiguous answers on combating persistent inflation, leading to an unusual rise in long-term bond yields. Internal divisions are also growing, with at least six voting members signaling openness to a rate hike if inflation doesn't improve, three of whom voted for one in July. Wash's communication philosophy—avoiding forward guidance to get a "purer" market signal—is colliding with practical pressures. Critics argue his approach limits policy flexibility and clarity. The Jackson Hole symposium may offer a chance to reset messaging. If the Fed skips a hike in September, the next meeting falls just after the midterm elections, potentially delaying action until December and relying on inflation forecasts that officials themselves find increasingly unconvincing.

marsbit08/11 11:03

BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Reveals Recent Events in Japan That Could Spark a Bitcoin Rally! Here are the Details

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, suggests potential actions by the US and Japan to support the yen could increase global dollar liquidity, potentially fueling a significant rise in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He outlined three scenarios: aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Japanese institutions selling foreign assets to buy domestic ones, or Japan obtaining dollar liquidity from the Federal Reserve using its US Treasury bonds as collateral. Hayes believes the third option is most likely. This process would involve Japan selling the borrowed dollars to buy yen, thereby increasing the supply of dollars globally. Hayes argues this resultant surge in dollar liquidity could act as a major catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto assets. His analysis highlights the crypto market's sensitivity to global monetary policy, currency markets, and liquidity conditions. However, he notes these scenarios are not guaranteed, and Bitcoin's performance would depend on how the added liquidity is managed.

cryptonews.ru08/11 09:02

WEEX Market Watch: Gold, Bitcoin Rally Together as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Fade

Markets have repriced Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations downward following a weak July jobs report, sending both gold and Bitcoin higher in tandem—a departure from their typical divergence during Fed uncertainty. Gold climbed toward a two-month high as lower rates reduced its opportunity cost, while Bitcoin recovered above $65,000, tracking the same dovish shift. In the background, TRON's role as a major stablecoin settlement layer continues to grow, with network activity hitting records. Attention now turns to upcoming inflation data (CPI and PPI) to see if the dovish repricing extends. The coordinated move highlights the value of platforms like WEEX, which offer integrated access to both traditional and crypto assets within a single account.

TheNewsCrypto08/11 08:16

What will happen to cryptocurrencies this week. Bitcoin's nearest price targets

Bitcoin ($BTC) has risen by 3.5% since the beginning of August, surpassing $65k and reaching a two-week high on August 10. It is currently trading around $64.8k. Experts outlined key factors and price targets for the coming week. Geopolitical and economic developments are providing support. Potential easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, could reduce oil price and inflation risks, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data for July has strengthened expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, further aiding risk sentiment. This week's focus will be on U.S. inflation data (CPI), where a slowdown could boost Bitcoin, while higher readings might pressure it. However, selling pressure from mining companies continues. High mining costs have forced firms like MARA to sell not only newly mined coins but also dip into their reserves. MARA sold over 23,000 BTC in H1 2026. Furthermore, mining companies are repurposing facilities into AI data centers, creating competition for capital between crypto and the AI sector. Technically, Bitcoin's short-term trend remains upward. Key support is seen around $64k-$64.2k, with potential to rise towards $67.5k and the psychological $70k level. Analysts suggest much negative news is already priced in, and any positive catalyst could push prices higher. However, due to the overall macroeconomic backdrop, a sustained break above the 200-day moving average and the $70k-$72k resistance zone is not widely expected in the near term.

cryptonews.ru08/10 19:46