# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

Amid a surprisingly hawkish shift from the Fed and most of Wall Street capitulating on rate cut expectations, Citigroup stands as a notable outlier, holding firm to its forecast for monetary easing to restart this October. Following the June FOMC meeting, where the "dovish bias" was removed and the dot plot shifted dramatically, markets priced in nearly 37bps of tightening for 2026. Major banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs revised their calls, predicting rate hikes as soon as September. Citigroup, however, maintains a baseline scenario for a 25bps rate cut in October, followed by two more cuts in December and January 2027. Its counter-consensus view rests on three key arguments: 1) Plunging oil prices are eliminating a major inflation upside risk. 2) Rising initial jobless claims are mirroring seasonal weakening patterns seen in 2024-2025, signaling a labor market cool-down. 3) The strong core PCE is an "outlier," heavily influenced by AI-related prices and equity market gains rather than broad consumer price pressures, with other inflation metrics showing more moderation. While Wall Street largely "surrenders" to the hawkish Fed narrative, with Deutsche Bank forecasting two hikes and Goldman Sachs warning of potential back-to-back moves, Citigroup remains the "last holdout," betting that disinflationary forces will pave the way for cuts before year-end.

marsbit06/22 10:39

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

marsbit06/22 10:39

Trends in US Stocks (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Agreement Changes Course, Thursday's PCE and Micron to Determine Chip Sector Direction

U.S. Stock Market Outlook (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Deal Falters, Thursday's PCE & Micron to Set Chip Sector Direction. Geopolitical tensions resurged over the weekend as Iran's IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and its negotiation team walked out after threats from Trump, pausing U.S.-Iran talks. This renewed risk premium is weighing on U.S. equity futures ahead of the open. Last week's market was driven by chip stocks, with the Philly Semiconductor Index hitting a record high. While the Fed's hawkish tone was overshadowed by initial deal optimism, the S&P 500 gained 0.9% for the week. SpaceX debuted strongly but ended with two down days. Key events this week: The status of U.S.-Iran negotiations remains the immediate variable for oil and energy stocks. Monday sees Marvell and Flex added to the S&P 500. Tuesday's MSCI reclassification could benefit South Korean semiconductors and memory stocks. **Thursday, June 25th, is the critical day**, featuring the May Core PCE report and Micron's earnings. Hotter PCE data could solidify expectations for two 2024 rate hikes, while softer data would rapidly reprice rate cut bets. Micron's report is a key test for the AI narrative; the market will scrutinize its 2027 HBM supply visibility, HBM4 progress, and its position in Nvidia's Vera Rubin supply chain. Nvidia's AGM and a potential OpenAI GPT-5.6 release will make Thursday a pivotal 24 hours for AI. Friday concludes with the Russell reconstitution, elevating small-cap volatility. In summary, last week's gains face a true test. The path hinges on two concurrent threads: geopolitical developments with Iran and the AI narrative defined by Micron's guidance and Nvidia's updates. The chip sector's record highs are vulnerable if Thursday brings hot PCE data and conservative guidance from Micron. Conversely, positive outcomes could reaffirm the AI bull case, making this week's volatility a potential entry window.

marsbit06/22 01:19

Trends in US Stocks (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Agreement Changes Course, Thursday's PCE and Micron to Determine Chip Sector Direction

marsbit06/22 01:19

1996 or 1999? Walsh's First Test is 'How to View AI'

"1996 or 1999? Wall's First Big Test Is 'How to View AI'" Federal Reserve Chairman Wall's initial challenge is not whether to raise or cut rates, but a more fundamental judgment: what kind of boom is the current AI boom? This will determine the Fed's policy path and define his legacy. Economics is split between two opposing views, according to reporter Nick Timiraos. One sees imminent productivity gains that will increase supply and cool inflation, allowing the Fed to hold steady. The other argues that while productivity benefits are distant, demand shocks are here now, and waiting for data confirmation risks missing the intervention window, forcing sharper rate hikes later. Wall has signaled a leaning toward the first view, echoing 1996-era Alan Greenspan, who embraced strong, productivity-driven growth without fear of inflation. However, Wall faces a different macro environment than Greenspan did, with tariff pressures, expanding fiscal deficits, and diminishing globalization benefits, which could force more significant inflation pressures even if AI benefits materialize. Wall's logic, expressed before taking office, is that AI-driven productivity gains won't show in official data for years. If the Fed waits for confirmation, it might mistakenly tighten policy and choke off the very growth that could suppress inflation. This argues for using forward-looking narratives over lagging data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee presents a key counter-argument. He distinguishes between expected and unexpected productivity booms. A widely anticipated boom, like the current AI wave, can cause people to spend future wealth gains in advance, overheating the economy before productivity actually rises, thus requiring preemptive rate hikes. He cites rising costs for AI data centers as evidence of such overheating. Fed Governor Christopher Waller offers a rebuttal to Goolsbee, noting the "expected spending" mechanism only works if people can borrow against future income, which many households cannot do due to borrowing constraints. Wall also faces a paradox related to his desire to reduce the Fed's use of "forward guidance" (pre-announcing policy moves). This practice was established in 1999 when Greenspan began signaling hikes to avoid market shocks. If the economy follows a less optimistic path, Wall may be forced to choose between using the guidance he wants to abolish or risking market volatility by staying silent. The ultimate question defining Wall's first major test remains: Is this 1996 or 1999?

marsbit06/20 07:53

1996 or 1999? Walsh's First Test is 'How to View AI'

marsbit06/20 07:53

BIT Research: Liquidity is Disappearing, Will Bitcoin Replay the Bottoming Pattern of 2022?

The crypto market is currently in an adjustment phase driven by policy expectations and liquidity shifts. Despite a brief rebound fueled by geopolitical easing and SpaceX's strong IPO performance, unexpectedly hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have removed anticipated easing support. Concurrently, stablecoin liquidity is shrinking, with insufficient new capital inflows, pushing the market into a typically quiet summer period. Pricing lacks catalysts for a sustained rally. Daily trading volume has significantly contracted, stablecoin growth has slowed markedly, and the supportive effect of Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) STRC preferred stock-financed Bitcoin purchases is fading. Amid policy uncertainty, seasonal weakness, and liquidity contraction, Bitcoin faces near-term downward pressure. Warsh's hawkish pivot and refusal to provide a clear policy outlook have increased risk premiums, historically unfavorable for Bitcoin. Technically, the trend remains bearish below $73,700, with $62,446 as critical support. A break below could accelerate declines, though a prolonged consolidation phase, similar to 2022's bottoming process, is possible. Liquidity is a core constraint. Current daily volume is around $500 billion, roughly 25% of the peak during the July-Oct 2025 rally. The 12-month growth rates for USDT and USDC have fallen to ~20%, with 6-month growth near zero, indicating weak new inflows. Bitcoin ETF and Strategy-driven inflows have also weakened, with a 30-day rolling net outflow. With inflation at 4.2% above the Fed's target, combined hawkish policy, seasonal factors, and liquidity shortages challenge Bitcoin's ability to hold above $60,000. However, this adjustment phase may be forming a cyclical low this summer, potentially setting the stage for the next bull cycle.

marsbit06/20 02:39

BIT Research: Liquidity is Disappearing, Will Bitcoin Replay the Bottoming Pattern of 2022?

marsbit06/20 02:39

Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

Oil prices fell below $80 as a US-Iran peace framework eased tensions, but Bitcoin failed to rally, remaining around $64,900. The article argues that while lower oil removes a key bearish factor for BTC, the primary market drivers have shifted to liquidity conditions, Federal Reserve policy, ETF fund flows, and overall risk appetite. Historically, high oil prices threatened inflation, delaying Fed rate cuts and hurting risk assets like Bitcoin. Now, with oil prices down, Bitcoin's path hinges on whether this translates into lower inflation expectations, softer Treasury yields, and a more dovish Fed stance. Recent FOMC minutes still show concern over energy-driven inflation, keeping financial conditions restrictive. Bitcoin ETF flows showed a slight positive inflow recently, but sustained demand is needed for a meaningful shift. The market requires consistent signals: stable ETF inflows, declining yields, and improving risk sentiment alongside lower oil prices. Without this combination, lower oil alone may not boost BTC. The outlook presents two paths: a recovery if lower oil eases inflation, the Fed turns less hawkish, and ETF demand stabilizes, allowing BTC to reclaim the $66,900-$70,000 range. Conversely, Bitcoin could remain pressured if the peace deal stalls, the Fed remains restrictive, yields stay high, or ETF flows reverse. In summary, for the remainder of 2026, liquidity factors—Fed policy, ETF activity, and investor risk appetite—have surpassed oil prices as the critical determinants of Bitcoin's price trajectory.

marsbit06/18 02:49

Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

marsbit06/18 02:49

Full Debut Q&A! Fed Chair Wash: Firmly Adhering to 2% Inflation Target, Establishing Five Special Task Forces, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first FOMC press conference, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and emphasizing the Committee's unanimous and explicit commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. Key announcements included significant changes to Fed communication and operations. The policy statement was significantly shortened and, notably, forward guidance was removed. Chair Warsh broke from precedent by declining to submit his own economic forecasts and "dot plot." He announced the immediate formation of five special working groups focusing on: Fed communication, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. These groups, which will include external experts, are tasked with recommending improvements by year-end. One key group will review the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to assess the roles of interest rates versus balance sheet tools in monetary policy. Warsh characterized the current restrictive stance of policy as "uneven," noting its effect on housing but questioning its impact on financial markets where conditions appear less restrictive. He expressed a desire to move away from a "Fed-speak" driven market, arguing that markets should react to economic data rather than Fed commentary to provide better informational signals. On inflation, he stated there is no need to reconsider the 2% target until the Fed re-establishes its commitment and capability to achieve it. Economic projections (SEP) from other officials showed a split on the rate outlook for 2024, with half expecting at least one hike and half forecasting unchanged or lower rates. The median projection saw the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2024. Following the announcements, risk assets sold off sharply, Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened.

marsbit06/18 02:18

Full Debut Q&A! Fed Chair Wash: Firmly Adhering to 2% Inflation Target, Establishing Five Special Task Forces, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

marsbit06/18 02:18

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held its first FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The central bank issued a significantly shortened policy statement, explicitly removing forward guidance. Chair Warsh delivered a strong, unified commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target, stating the FOMC has the "capability and the commitment" to restore price stability and sees no need to review the target itself at this time. Warsh announced the immediate formation of five special working groups to examine and propose improvements in key areas by year-end: Fed communication, the balance sheet (including a review of the $6.7 trillion portfolio and its role in policy), data sources and methodology, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. In a break from tradition, Chair Warsh did not submit his own economic projections or "dot plot." The submitted Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a split among other officials: half anticipate at least one rate hike this year, while half expect rates to remain steady or fall. The median projection sees the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2026. Warsh characterized the current policy stance as "uneven," noting restrictive effects in sectors like housing but less so in financial markets. He emphasized a desire to move away from a market dynamic overly focused on Fed signaling, advocating for markets to react more to economic data. On AI, he called it potentially the most significant economic change in his adult life, driving clear demand but with uncertain timing and scale on the supply side, creating a "race" between the two.

链捕手06/18 02:16

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

链捕手06/18 02:16

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected in its June meeting, the first under new Chair Warsh. While the key dot plot of rate projections remained, Warsh notably did not submit his own forecast, signaling a deliberate move to weaken its forward guidance role. He emphasized a data-dependent approach, refusing to provide clear future policy signals and advocating for more restrained communication. The market interpreted this shift as heightening inflation constraints and the possibility of more aggressive tightening. Consequently, market pricing quickly adjusted: rate hike expectations for later in the year increased, U.S. stocks sold off, and the dollar strengthened. Warsh's debut suggests a fundamental change in Fed communication—moving away from "explaining the future" to merely "describing current assessments"—which could force markets to fundamentally reprice assets in a less predictable policy environment.

Odaily星球日报06/18 02:00

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

Odaily星球日报06/18 02:00

Market Trends in US Stocks (June 18): Walsh's Pivot Ignites Broad Sell-Off, SpaceX Suffers First Drop, Semiconductors Sole Safe Haven

**U.S. Market Trends (June 18): Wash Sparks Full-Scale Sell-off; SpaceX's First Drop, Semiconductors the Only Safe Haven** Markets plunged after the June FOMC meeting. The "dot plot" revealed a hawkish shift, with half the officials projecting at least one rate hike in 2024. New Fed Chair Wash, in his press conference, announced the abandonment of forward guidance, stating he "can't tell you what the next step will be." This policy uncertainty triggered a broad sell-off. All major indices fell over 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.21%. The VIX volatility index jumped 12%. Treasury yields spiked, and the dollar surged to a two-month high, while gold erased its weekly gains. The sell-off was led by rate-sensitive sectors. Meta plunged over 5%, leading the Magnificent 7 lower. SpaceX closed down ~5%, marking its first decline since its IPO, as valuation pressure from higher rate expectations took hold. The sole market bright spot was semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.38%, with Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Arm Holdings all posting significant gains. The narrative held that long-term AI computing demand remains intact, driving a rotation of funds from high-valuation software/internet stocks into infrastructure and equipment names. Retail sales data came in strong, and EIA crude inventories fell sharply, supporting the view of persistent inflation and limiting the Fed's scope for easing. Traders fully priced in a rate hike by October, with September seen as likely. In summary, Chair Wash's debut dismantled the market's traditional policy anchors, injecting new uncertainty. While the AI investment thesis provided pockets of resilience in semiconductors, the repricing of rate-sensitive, high-valuation technology stocks appears to have just begun under the new "hawkish reset" framework.

marsbit06/18 01:12

Market Trends in US Stocks (June 18): Walsh's Pivot Ignites Broad Sell-Off, SpaceX Suffers First Drop, Semiconductors Sole Safe Haven

marsbit06/18 01:12

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

In this June 2026 podcast interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explains his decision to sell his major crypto holdings (HYPE, NEAR, Worldcoin, Zcash). His rationale is based on a macro view linking oil prices, the Iran conflict, US politics, and an impending AI bubble burst. Hayes argues that high oil prices, driven by the ongoing war, will pressure domestic US inflation. To salvage the Republican Party's chances in the midterm elections, he believes Donald Trump may pivot to a populist, anti-AI stance—advocating for taxes and regulation—which would deflate the AI investment narrative. He sees the AI sector, particularly massive capital expenditure on data centers, as having absorbed nearly all excess market liquidity (around $1.5 trillion in debt issuance since 2025), starving other assets like Bitcoin. He highlights the upcoming SpaceX IPO at a ~$1.8 trillion valuation and 100x price-to-sales ratio as a potential tipping point. If these hyped IPOs underperform, it could shatter market confidence in AI. In such a scenario, all risk assets, including crypto, would fall together as correlations converge to 1 during a broad correction. Hayes has moved his portfolio into Treasuries and energy stocks (like ExxonMobil), predicting Bitcoin will be below $100k by year-end. He sees a potential crypto bull market only after the AI frenzy cools, liquidity stops flowing exclusively into AI, and possibly after a significant market downturn prompts new monetary stimulus.

marsbit06/17 06:23

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End