# Market Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Market", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Dogecoin looks weak, yet buyers lurk: Decline ahead or surprise rally?

Dogecoin (DOGE) shows a weak market structure, breaking below key support levels and trading 90% below its all-time high. Technical indicators like the rejection below the 200-day MA and negative Chaikin Money Flow point to continued bearish dominance. However, a TD Sequential buy signal and a recent 98.85% surge in net volume suggest some underlying buying interest and a potential pause in the downtrend, contingent on holding above $0.073. Further weakness is evidenced by extremely low ETF inflows, with only two days of net positive inflows totaling $863K over the past month, aligning with the broader market decline. The short-term path remains unclear between further decline and a surprise rally.

ambcrypto1h ago

Dogecoin looks weak, yet buyers lurk: Decline ahead or surprise rally?

ambcrypto1h ago

Arthur Hayes Sells NEAR, Worldcoin And Zcash In Rotation To Energy Stocks

Arthur Hayes adopts a more defensive crypto portfolio stance, citing distorted liquidity conditions due to AI-related debt absorption. He has exited altcoin positions in NEAR, Worldcoin, Zcash, and Hyperliquid, arguing that tighter liquidity near-term is less supportive for speculative, higher-beta assets. However, Hayes maintains his core structural bullishness on Bitcoin and Ether, viewing them as long-term monetary and smart-contract hedges, respectively. He is rotating some capital into Treasuries and energy stocks. His framework emphasizes that crypto remains highly sensitive to macro liquidity flows, credit conditions, and capital allocation trends outside the industry, suggesting traders exercise caution on crowded altcoin trades while awaiting broader liquidity improvement.

bitcoinist6h ago

Arthur Hayes Sells NEAR, Worldcoin And Zcash In Rotation To Energy Stocks

bitcoinist6h ago

Collector Crypt Rises as On-Chain 'Money Printer': Fewer Than 1,000 Daily Active Users, Whales Account for 97% of Revenue

The article discusses the rise of Collector Crypt, a tokenized trading card game (TCG) platform on Solana, which has recently entered the top 10 of the global crypto protocol revenue rankings. Despite having less than 1,000 daily active users, the platform generates significant income, with 97% of its revenue coming from a small group of high-net-worth "whale" users. Key points include the growth of the on-chain TCG sector, where Solana holds over 80% market share, and Collector Crypt's dominance within it. The platform's success is driven by a gacha-style card pack opening mechanism, the popularity of the Pokémon IP, and its CARDS token economic model, which includes buybacks funded by protocol revenue. However, the article notes challenges such as declining profit margins, high dependency on whale spending, and upcoming token unlocks that could increase market selling pressure. While Collector Crypt demonstrates the potential of on-chain TCGs, the sector is still in its early stages with room for growth in user base and infrastructure.

marsbit10h ago

Collector Crypt Rises as On-Chain 'Money Printer': Fewer Than 1,000 Daily Active Users, Whales Account for 97% of Revenue

marsbit10h ago

Who is Paying for the $64 Billion Paper Profit Party?

Bitcoin fell below the crucial $60k support, hitting lows not seen since October 2024. The real concern isn't the price drop, but the corporate Bitcoin holders whose financial models are faltering. Companies like MicroStrategy (Strategy), with 847k BTC at an average cost of ~$75.6k, now face significant unrealized losses. Their stock prices trade at a steep discount to their Bitcoin holdings' net asset value. Others like Japan's Metaplanet and Solmate (formerly Brera Holdings) face even deeper losses. While immediate, price-triggered liquidations are unlikely due to unsecured debt structures, the core financial "flywheel" is stalling. The new ASU 2023-08 accounting rule, which books Bitcoin's quarterly price swings directly into profits/losses, amplified gains in the bull market but now creates massive paper losses, potentially triggering index fund exclusions and forced selling. MicroStrategy’s CEO even hinted at possibly selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, contradicting his "never sell" stance. The true liquidity test is scheduled for Fall 2027, when convertible bond holders may demand cash repayment. If Bitcoin stays below key cost bases, these companies could be forced to sell hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin into the market, creating a severe liquidity crisis. The risk has shifted from instant margin calls to a slow-burning countdown to a debt reckoning.

链捕手11h ago

Who is Paying for the $64 Billion Paper Profit Party?

链捕手11h ago

No Bull Market for BTC Without STRC Re-pegging

Summary: The sustained de-pegging of MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Strategy Preferred Shares (STRC) poses a severe threat to Bitcoin (BTC) and could prevent a bull market. STRC, designed to trade near a $100 target, has plunged to around $75, effectively shutting down MicroStrategy's cheapest and most efficient funding channel. This channel was critical for its "raise funds, buy BTC" business model. More critically, MicroStrategy now faces a massive cash outflow from these preferred shares. With approximately $10.49 billion of STRC outstanding at an 11.5% dividend yield, the annual cash obligation exceeds $1.2 billion. Combined with other preferred shares, the total annual payout nears $1.7 billion, depleting its current ~$1.4 billion cash reserve within a year. To address this, MicroStrategy is increasingly relying on common stock (MSTR) offerings via its ATM program. However, recent sales show most raised capital is now used to bolster cash reserves rather than buy more Bitcoin. This dilutes the key metric of BTC per share for common stockholders, eroding the foundation of its premium valuation. If STRC cannot re-peg, this costly dilution may continue. Worse, if cash pressure intensifies, selling Bitcoin becomes a real risk. As the largest corporate BTC holder (~847,363 BTC), any significant sales could crash the market. Thus, MicroStrategy is transforming from BTC's most reliable institutional buyer into a major potential seller, casting a significant shadow over Bitcoin's price prospects.

Odaily星球日报12h ago

No Bull Market for BTC Without STRC Re-pegging

Odaily星球日报12h ago

Can Strategy rebound after its first close below $100 since 2024?

MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) has fallen below $100 for the first time since March 2024, trading at $94.23 after a significant decline. Despite increasing its Bitcoin holdings to 847,363 BTC through recent share sales, the firm's strategy faces criticism. Market strategist Charlie Bilello warns of potential for further deep declines, citing historical precedents. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests the company's aggressive Bitcoin purchases act more as a "liquidity sink" than a price catalyst, noting new buying is offset by selling pressure. He recommends pausing BTC buys to rebuild cash reserves. Analysis shows MSTR's stock price and its price-to-BTC reserve ratio are in decline, meaning investors are paying a much smaller premium for its Bitcoin acquisition strategy compared to prior bull markets. As Bitcoin's price struggles, scrutiny grows on MicroStrategy's leveraged treasury model and its need for greater capital discipline.

ambcrypto19h ago

Can Strategy rebound after its first close below $100 since 2024?

ambcrypto19h ago

Bitcoin’s fall to $60K changes things, but what does the data say?

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $60,000 mark, trading around $59.5K after failing to hold the $63K support zone. Despite the price decline, exchange netflows remain positive, indicating continued BTC inflows which could signal readiness to sell, hedge, or trade. Open Interest (OI) has dropped significantly from its 2025 peak to approximately $20.6 billion, suggesting reduced leverage and a less crowded market, potentially lowering the risk of large, liquidation-driven moves. Notably, trading volume spikes, often signaling key turning points, have recently been more driven by derivatives activity than traditional spot market movements. While this indicates large players, including ETFs, are still active, it raises the question of whether significant volume will return while Bitcoin remains in an uncertain range. The market's next direction is likely to be influenced by spot flows, ETF activity, and derivatives positioning around the current $59K-$60K zone.

ambcrypto22h ago

Bitcoin’s fall to $60K changes things, but what does the data say?

ambcrypto22h ago

Bitcoin’s cycle is ‘evolving, but not broken’ – Inside 21Shares’ analysis

21Shares' latest "State of Crypto" report argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle is "evolving, but not broken." Despite many analysts believing the cycle ended in early 2026, Bitcoin's price action continues to mirror historical post-halving patterns. After peaking near $126,000 in October 2025, BTC entered a correction, but the current ~50% drawdown is less severe than the 80-90% declines of past bear markets. Crucially, the price has remained above its aggregate cost basis of $54,000, avoiding the outright capitulation typical of cycle bottoms. The report notes that stronger fundamentals do not make Bitcoin immune to cycles, as sentiment is still tied to macroeconomic conditions. It projects a potential recovery toward $100,000 by end-2026. However, ETF markets show stress with recent outflows, and the LTH/STH SOPR ratio falling to ~0.7 indicates selling pressure is primarily from short-term holders. Additionally, negative gamma exposure for market makers below $68,000-$70,000 suggests elevated volatility ahead. In summary, while the cycle persists, its characteristics, including shallower declines and persistent institutional backing, are changing.

ambcryptoYesterday 18:07

Bitcoin’s cycle is ‘evolving, but not broken’ – Inside 21Shares’ analysis

ambcryptoYesterday 18:07

XRP Weekly RSI Flashes Oversold Signal As Traders Watch $1.10 Support

XRP has moved into a deeply oversold technical setup, with its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching levels comparable to prior cycle lows. Traders are closely monitoring the $1.10 price region as a key support level. The current technical signal highlights a critical decision point for XRP, indicating that the next price action around this support could significantly influence near-term trader sentiment. However, the article cautions that the oversold RSI reading alone does not guarantee a price reversal. The outcome will depend on whether buyers defend the support level and if the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, shows signs of stabilization. The situation underscores XRP's sensitivity to a mix of technical factors, regulatory news, and overall market liquidity conditions.

bitcoinistYesterday 18:03

XRP Weekly RSI Flashes Oversold Signal As Traders Watch $1.10 Support

bitcoinistYesterday 18:03

Bitcoin falls below $60K as ETF outflows and $1.48B liquidations fuel crypto selloff

Bitcoin dropped below the key $60,000 level, hitting near $59,400 and briefly touching $58,000, amid a broad crypto market selloff. The decline was fueled by significant outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $469.08 million in net withdrawals on June 24, reducing total ETF assets to $73.87 billion. Concurrently, over $1.48 billion worth of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $1.21 billion of the losses. The selloff pushed Bitcoin's daily RSI to around 30, near oversold territory, indicating strong selling pressure and technical weakness, though such levels can sometimes precede a short-term rebound.

ambcryptoYesterday 15:32

Bitcoin falls below $60K as ETF outflows and $1.48B liquidations fuel crypto selloff