# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Is ‘gold becoming roomies with Bitcoin’ and will a short squeeze trigger a rebound?

Gold and Bitcoin are experiencing significant investor outflows and rising short interest in the first half of 2026, with Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noting they are close to "becoming roomies" in terms of capital exits. Bitcoin, mirroring gold's weakness, saw its U.S. Spot ETFs post a net outflow of $5.4B in H1 2026—the first since their 2024 debut—while institutional positioning on the CME remained predominantly short. Despite this pressure and the potential for a prolonged downturn into Q4, a weaker U.S. jobs report recently triggered a brief recovery, with ETFs seeing net inflows and CME positioning turning positive. QCP Capital analysts suggest spot demand may be firming, but confirmation hinges on upcoming mid-July inflation data. Key short-term resistance levels are identified at $62.3K, the $65K-$67K zone, and $75K.

ambcrypto07/04 07:03

Is ‘gold becoming roomies with Bitcoin’ and will a short squeeze trigger a rebound?

ambcrypto07/04 07:03

Whale bets $70M on Bitcoin, Solana recovery – Will Fed’s hike fears ruin it?

A whale increased its long positions in Bitcoin and Solana with a $70M bet, and opened a $78M total position including a short on Hyperliquid (HYPE). The move followed a weak U.S. jobs report, which fueled a relief rally in crypto markets by easing fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The whale initially saw an unrealized profit of $9.2M. However, Fed rate expectations did not shift significantly toward cuts; markets still price an 83% chance rates remain unchanged. Upcoming FOMC meeting minutes could trigger volatility. The whale's position is already under pressure, with the HYPE short down 70%. Meanwhile, smart money increased bidding on Solana by 129%, but Bitcoin faces heavy short positions near $62K, setting up potential for a short squeeze. For a sustained recovery, Bitcoin must clear resistance at $62.3K and $65K. Overall, the market's direction hinges on the Fed's signals and whether hawkish hints could renew selling pressure.

ambcrypto07/03 14:03

Whale bets $70M on Bitcoin, Solana recovery – Will Fed’s hike fears ruin it?

ambcrypto07/03 14:03

Bitcoin rises as weaker US jobs data bolsters Fed easing expectations

Bitcoin rose as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report fueled expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. The June report showed only 57,000 nonfarm jobs were added, with previous months revised down by 74,000 jobs, indicating a cooling labor market. This led to a decline in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while increasing market bets on monetary easing. Investors rotated into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ether, as lower rates are seen as improving liquidity and financial conditions. The focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data for further clues on the timing of the Fed's first rate cut.

ambcrypto07/02 14:38

Bitcoin rises as weaker US jobs data bolsters Fed easing expectations

ambcrypto07/02 14:38

Viewpoint: Why is Bitcoin Still Struggling to Break Above $60,000?

Bitcoin continues to struggle to decisively break above the $60,000 level, largely trading between $58,000 and $61,000. Three main pressures are identified for this consolidation. First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their worst month of net outflows in June, weakening institutional buying support. Second, the expiry of a massive batch of Bitcoin options around $100 billion on Deribit around June 26 created crowded trading and hedging activity near the $60,000 strike price, amplifying volatility. Third, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance and resilient US economic data have tempered expectations for rapid interest rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and weighing on risk assets like Bitcoin. The current technical picture suggests a tug-of-war within a range. Key resistance is seen at $62,000; a sustained move above this level is needed to confirm a stronger recovery. On the downside, support lies around $58,000, with a break potentially opening the door to a test of the $55,000-$56,000 zone. For Bitcoin to sustainably reclaim $60,000 as support, a reversal in ETF fund flows, a more favorable macro environment, and a clear technical breakout above $62,000 are likely required. Until then, $60,000 remains a significant price barrier.

marsbit07/02 03:56

Viewpoint: Why is Bitcoin Still Struggling to Break Above $60,000?

marsbit07/02 03:56

Wall: Inflation Has Cooled in the Past Four Weeks, AI is Reshaping the Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity

Summary: At the European Central Bank's forum in Sintra, Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller stated the Fed will no longer provide forward guidance on future interest rate paths. Policy decisions will be made at each meeting based on the latest data. He noted that U.S. inflation risks have eased over the past four weeks. Waller discussed the significant impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, acknowledging its potential to boost productivity and supply but also its uncertain effects on employment and inflation—a determination he stressed must be data-driven. He reaffirmed the Fed's independence from political pressure and indicated a continued desire to reduce the size of the central bank's balance sheet, though this will be a gradual process. Waller also highlighted the formation of five internal working groups to review various aspects of Fed policy and communication.

链捕手07/02 03:36

Wall: Inflation Has Cooled in the Past Four Weeks, AI is Reshaping the Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity

链捕手07/02 03:36

BTC Hits Its Lowest Point Since 2024, But Is It Still Not the Right Time to Buy the Dip?

**Summary:** Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged to new lows in 2024, dropping over 50% from its all-time high to around $57,800, while Ethereum and Solana also show significant weakness. The market sentiment is at "extreme fear." The primary headwinds are identified as massive and sustained net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs since May 2026, creating significant selling pressure, and the evaporation of expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026, which makes holding cash and bonds more attractive than risk assets like crypto. Analysts are actively debating the potential bottom. Key predictions include: * **glassnode's Rafael:** Suggests a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, based on on-chain metrics like Realized Price and CVDD. He notes that institutional demand (via ETFs) is currently a net seller, not a buyer. * **BIT Analysis:** Argues the bear market is in its final stage, with a potential bottoming zone between $50,000 and $55,000, possibly aligning with the 2026 FIFA World Cup period (June-July). * **Wintermute:** Believes the market is in the late stages of a bear market but cautions the true bottom may not arrive until September-October 2026, contingent on renewed capital inflows. * **Liquid Capital's JackYi:** Posits that July-August 2026 could be the final capitulation and the best accumulation window, with potential bottom prices ranging from $51,000 to $43,000. * **Jiang Zhuo'er (BTC.TOP):** Predicts a bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 in October-December 2026, based on cycle analysis and MSTR's mNAV metric. * **Prediction Markets:** Polymarket data indicates a 79% chance BTC falls below $55,000 in 2026, a 65% chance below $50,000, and a 30% chance below $40,000. The consensus is that while bearish conditions are severe, the exact timing and price level of the ultimate bottom remain uncertain and depend on factors like ETF flows, macroeconomic policy, and potential market shocks.

Foresight News07/01 06:24

BTC Hits Its Lowest Point Since 2024, But Is It Still Not the Right Time to Buy the Dip?

Foresight News07/01 06:24

Grayscale: After Halving, BTC is Nearing the Bottom of This Cycle

Grayscale Research suggests Bitcoin's recent decline below $60,000, a >50% drop from its October peak, represents a cyclical correction within a long-term uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Key factors behind the pullback include a shift in market expectations toward Federal Reserve rate hikes under new Chair Kevin Warsh, uncertainty around the CLARITY Act's Senate passage, pressure on leveraged entities like Strategy, and concerns over quantum computing risks. The path out of the current bear market hinges on upcoming catalysts. An optimistic scenario, where the CLARITY Act passes, leverage is contained, and the Fed refrains from hiking, could mean Bitcoin is nearing its cycle bottom. A pessimistic scenario, featuring legislative failure, further deleveraging, and Fed rate hikes, could lead to additional moderate downside. Grayscale does not expect a historically deep ~80% drawdown due to a more measured prior bull run and stickier institutional demand. Despite short-term headwinds, Grayscale remains highly optimistic about crypto's long-term structural prospects, driven by institutional adoption of public blockchains, unsustainable government debt, declining trust in intermediaries, and AI's potential demand for alternative systems. The report concludes that while the exact cycle low depends on near-term catalysts, current valuations present an attractive entry point for long-term investors betting on the decade-ahead growth of digital assets.

marsbit07/01 03:22

Grayscale: After Halving, BTC is Nearing the Bottom of This Cycle

marsbit07/01 03:22

Will History Repeat Itself? Fidelity Lists Five Catalysts to End the Crypto Winter

Fidelity's new report suggests that the current crypto winter for Bitcoin may be nearing its end, identifying five potential catalysts that could drive a market turnaround based on historical patterns. First, Bitcoin's approximately four-year cycle, driven by its halving mechanism, historically marks peaks and troughs. The last bottom was in November 2022, potentially pointing to the next around November 2026, though cycle length can vary. Second, clearer regulation has often preceded past bull markets. The focus is now on the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify US digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Its passage could unlock domestic activity currently held back by legal uncertainty. Third, Federal Reserve monetary policy plays a role. A shift to lower interest rates tends to correlate with rising crypto prices by reducing borrowing costs and boosting risk appetite, though markets may price this in well ahead of any official change. Fourth, the emergence of breakthrough applications can fuel investor interest. Current trends like real-world asset tokenization, AI-related crypto infrastructure, and stablecoins are being watched, but history shows the biggest catalysts are often unexpected. Fifth, a new wave of institutional adoption could be a trigger. While ongoing adoption in 2026 hasn't sparked a new bull run, a major unexpected move—like a significant purchase by a tech giant or adoption as a hedge in a global crisis—could create a powerful new narrative. Fidelity concludes that while the market is in a downturn, historical turning points have often resulted from a combination of such factors, and the next phase for Bitcoin may depend on which of these catalysts materializes first.

Foresight News06/30 08:01

Will History Repeat Itself? Fidelity Lists Five Catalysts to End the Crypto Winter

Foresight News06/30 08:01

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

The title "Building the Plank Road Openly While Secretly Crossing at Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September 'Rate Cut'?" suggests Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish stance may be a deliberate smokescreen. Academy Securities analyst Peter Tchir argues in a report that markets, currently pricing a 75% chance of a September hike, are missing a potential path to a September rate cut that Walsh himself might be quietly preparing. Tchir posits that Walsh's hawkish rhetoric aims to suppress long-term yield risks (with the 10-year Treasury yield falling recently) while creating room for a narrative shift based on upcoming data. The potential political endgame, according to this view, could be rate cuts in September and October, ahead of the midterm elections. This hinges on a political logic where the Trump administration's preference for lower rates remains unchanged. A core part of Tchir's argument involves redefining inflation metrics. He contends the Fed under Walsh may deprioritize the PCE index, criticizing its lagging components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). Instead, he points to alternative, more real-time indicators like the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRR) and the Truflation daily index, which shows core inflation around 1.45%. He suggests the Fed could shift its data narrative to justify policy easing. Furthermore, Tchir downplays AI-driven inflation fears. He argues that consumer price sensitivity, evidenced by negative market reactions to price hikes (e.g., Apple), contradicts persistent inflation narratives. He also separates AI/data center spending—which he sees as relatively rate-insensitive—from broader consumer affordability issues, implying rate hikes are misdirected. Based on this analysis, Tchir sees a re-pricing of rate cut expectations as likely, creating opportunities in short-duration Treasuries. He maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view on the long end of the yield curve. For equities, he recommends a significant overweight in energy (especially global nuclear assets) and, within defense/security themes, an overweight in biotech/pharma versus an underweight in semiconductors, expressing caution on AI/data center valuations.

marsbit06/29 04:42

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

marsbit06/29 04:42

As analysts turn bullish on Bitcoin, is this the best time to buy BTC’s dip?

Analysts are turning bullish on Bitcoin as a recent market flush cleared over $1.8 billion in leveraged positions, primarily longs, resetting excessive leverage. With macro fears easing and potential rotation back into risk assets, some see the current dip as a buying opportunity for Q3. However, significant risks remain. Over 10.8 million BTC are held at a loss, a record high, with 37% of long-term holders underwater. Weak spot demand, increased Fed rate hike expectations, and the threat of long-term holder capitulation suggest the market may be underestimating downside potential. The recovery thesis depends on the return of strong spot demand.

ambcrypto06/26 21:02

As analysts turn bullish on Bitcoin, is this the best time to buy BTC’s dip?