# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Trump's 38th Claim of 'Imminent Deal' Sparks TACO-Style Surge in Global Stock Markets

Trump claims for the 38th time that a "final deal is imminent," sparking a TACO-style surge in global stock markets. Following the US military's sudden strike on Iran and Trump's subsequent cancellation of promised "tough measures," his latest announcement triggered sharp rallies. US indices (Dow up 1.90%, Nasdaq up 3.42%) and crypto-related stocks rose, while Asian markets like South Korea's KOSPI (up over 6%, briefly triggering a trading halt) and Japan's Nikkei also surged. Oil prices fell 4.3% and gold rebounded 3.1%. The macro backdrop includes potential de-escalation in the US-Iran-Israel conflict, US CPI hitting a 3-year high of 4.2% year-over-year (easing Fed rate hike fears), and heavy retail buying in Asian markets using leveraged accounts. However, the situation remains fragile. Iran denies any breakthrough, and analysts warn of a potential 6-7% correction in the S&P 500 due to overheated sentiment and high valuations. Additionally, the massive SpaceX IPO, with retail demand exceeding $100 billion, is drawing liquidity from the broader market, posing a near-term test for stock prices. In summary, while markets are reacting positively to Trump's statements and macro data, risks persist from geopolitical uncertainty, excessive speculation, and liquidity pressures from major IPOs.

marsbit06/12 05:01

Trump's 38th Claim of 'Imminent Deal' Sparks TACO-Style Surge in Global Stock Markets

marsbit06/12 05:01

Trump's 38th Call 'Deal is Imminent', Global Markets Experience TACO-style Surge

Former U.S. President Trump claimed for the 38th time that a "final agreement" is imminent, triggering a "TACO-style" surge in global stock markets. Major U.S. indices, as well as Japanese and South Korean markets, posted significant gains, with oil prices falling and gold rising. The market rally is attributed to renewed hopes for a ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict, the latest U.S. CPI data showing inflation at a multi-year high but easing core pressures, and a significantly reduced expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. However, analysts warn of potential risks. The situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, with Iran denying any agreement. Several institutions have turned cautious, flagging overvaluation, speculative excess, and warning of a potential 6-7% correction in the S&P 500. Additionally, the massive SpaceX IPO, which has seen overwhelming retail demand, is testing market liquidity as investors may sell existing holdings to participate. Experts advise caution against market volatility driven by Trump's unpredictable statements.

Odaily星球日报06/12 04:31

Trump's 38th Call 'Deal is Imminent', Global Markets Experience TACO-style Surge

Odaily星球日报06/12 04:31

The Gold Buy-on-the-Dip Guide: Watch Interest Rates, Not Just War

"Gold Buying Guide: Focus on Interest Rates, Not Just War" Four months ago, gold buyers likely didn't anticipate buying at a peak that even a war couldn't sustain. After hitting a record high of $5,596 on January 29, gold entered a bear market just 91 days later, its fastest decline since 2008. A key trigger was the Fed's hawkish shift, highlighting that monetary policy, not geopolitics, is the primary driver. The article argues that the traditional "buy gold in turmoil" script has changed. While the US-Iran conflict initially boosted prices, the sustained rally in oil prices heightened inflation fears, forcing central banks to maintain or consider tighter policy. Since gold yields no interest, higher rates increase its opportunity cost, eroding its appeal. This dynamic was evident when gold fell sharply on May 18 despite positive peace talks, as lower oil prices eased inflation and thus rate hike pressures. The recent sell-off is also part of a broader market deleveraging. Correlations between gold, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin spiked as leveraged investors sold liquid assets to cover losses, creating a synchronized downturn. Historically, gold bottoms align with policy shifts, not conflict resolutions. The 2008 and 2022 bear markets ended with shifts to extreme easing and peak inflation expectations, respectively. For potential buyers, the author suggests monitoring three signals: 1) Peak interest rate hike expectations, 2) Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (to ease oil/inflation pressure), and 3) A return to net inflows for Gold ETFs, indicating the end of forced selling. While predicting the exact bottom is impossible, the author's personal strategy involves scaling into a position across price levels like $4000, $3700, and $3500, committing no more than 30% of the intended total allocation initially, and adding the remainder only if key signals emerge. The core conclusion: In turbulent times, watching interest rates is more crucial than watching wars.

marsbit06/12 04:06

The Gold Buy-on-the-Dip Guide: Watch Interest Rates, Not Just War

marsbit06/12 04:06

Three-Year High Smashes Rate-Cut Hopes, Who's Using CPI to Clean Out Whale Holdings?

U.S. CPI inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May, reaching a three-year high and dampening market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The surge was primarily driven by a sharp 23.5% annual increase in energy prices, fueled by geopolitical conflicts. While core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, showing relative moderation, the hotter-than-expected headline data prompted a repricing in interest rate markets. Traders now overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with some even pricing in potential rate hikes for late 2026 or 2027. The report triggered declines in major U.S. stock indices and pressured risk assets like Bitcoin, which remained volatile around $61,000-$62,000. Analysts note that while the energy-driven inflation spike is concerning, the controlled core figures provide the Fed room for patience. However, the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative has solidified. For crypto markets, this translates to continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, heightened volatility, and a market seemingly in a "capitulation" phase, with leverage reset but sustained demand yet to materialize.

Foresight News06/11 03:14

Three-Year High Smashes Rate-Cut Hopes, Who's Using CPI to Clean Out Whale Holdings?

Foresight News06/11 03:14

US CPI Preview: Overall Inflation May Break Through 4% to Hit a Three-Year High, While Core Inflation Could Be Significantly Below Expectations

US CPI Preview: Headline Inflation May Top 4%, Hitting Three-Year High, Core Could Fall Short of Expectations. Wall Street's major institutions (Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley) anticipate May's headline CPI year-over-year to rise sharply to the 4.17%-4.3% range from April's 3.81%, largely driven by a significant jump in energy prices due to recent geopolitical tensions. This could mark the highest level since April 2023. In contrast, core CPI (excluding food and energy) is forecast to increase only 0.17%-0.22% month-over-month, notably below the market consensus of 0.27%-0.30%. Key moderating factors include cooling shelter inflation (OER and rent) and weaker auto insurance prices, while used car prices are expected to be flat. However, upward pressures persist within core components. Airfare, IT goods, and some non-shelter services are expected to show strength, partially offsetting the cooling trends. This divergence makes the report complex for markets: high headline inflation from transient energy shocks versus a potentially softer underlying core trend. Market pricing via inflation swaps suggests a slightly higher-than-expected headline print, historically associated with a modest dollar rally post-release. Looking ahead, the trajectory for inflation remains highly dependent on future oil price movements.

marsbit06/10 10:15

US CPI Preview: Overall Inflation May Break Through 4% to Hit a Three-Year High, While Core Inflation Could Be Significantly Below Expectations

marsbit06/10 10:15

U.S. Stock Market Trend: Nasdaq Plunges 3.5% Intraday Before a Remarkable Recovery, All Eyes on CPI Tomorrow

"US Stock Market Trends: Nasdaq Plunges 3.5% Before Dramatic Recovery, Eyes on Tomorrow's CPI" On Tuesday, US markets experienced a wild swing. The Nasdaq initially surged nearly 0.7% before plummeting to a 3.5% intraday loss following a post by Donald Trump on Truth Social. He stated that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and that the US "must...respond." The index, however, staged a remarkable recovery in the final two hours, closing down only 0.97%, as subsequent remarks from Trump and Vice President Vance suggested a potential Iran deal within days. The S&P 500 fell 0.26%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.17%, supported by its non-tech components. This incident marked the first loss of a US military asset since tensions with Iran escalated in late February. Despite the event, crude oil prices fell sharply (WTI -3.93%) due to expectations of a near-term deal, OPEC+ plans to increase output, and fears that strong jobs data could lead to Fed rate hikes. Market attention is now laser-focused on the May CPI data release Wednesday morning. This report is seen as critical evidence for whether hot job growth is fueling inflation and will heavily influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. A hotter-than-expected reading could trigger further sell-offs, particularly in tech, while a cooler print could spark a significant rebound. The article notes a clear sector rotation, with money flowing out of tech (Nasdaq down over 5% in a week) into defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. Other assets like gold and Bitcoin also remain under pressure. The overarching sentiment is one of "war fatigue," with markets desperately awaiting concrete results from the prolonged Iran negotiations rather than reacting to each new headline.

marsbit06/10 01:37

U.S. Stock Market Trend: Nasdaq Plunges 3.5% Intraday Before a Remarkable Recovery, All Eyes on CPI Tomorrow

marsbit06/10 01:37

Arthur Hayes' New Article: AI Bubble Nears Bursting, Crypto Market Faces Short-Term Pressure

In a new essay, Arthur Hayes argues that the AI market bubble is approaching a rupture, which will place significant short-term pressure on crypto assets. He identifies rising oil prices, a trio of massive tech IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI), and potential anti-AI political rhetoric from Trump as the three key catalysts for a correction. Hayes posits that the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will drive energy prices higher, increasing operational costs for data centers and squeezing AI company profits. Simultaneously, the market may struggle to absorb the upcoming wave of multi-trillion dollar tech IPOs. Furthermore, with high inflation hurting his election chances, Trump could pivot to attacking the AI sector with proposals for heavy taxation and regulation to win over voters, spooking the market. Hayes notes that nearly all new dollar liquidity since 2022 has flowed into the AI sector, leaving little for Bitcoin, explaining its recent underperformance. He believes an AI stock crash would trigger a broad risk-off sentiment and credit contraction, dragging down crypto in the near term. Consequently, his fund, Maelstrom, has sold all AI-related stocks and non-core cryptocurrencies, retaining only Bitcoin and Ethereum while building positions in traditional energy stocks. He anticipates Bitcoin will bottom and resume its bull run only after the AI bubble pops and a new monetary easing cycle begins.

marsbit06/09 11:06

Arthur Hayes' New Article: AI Bubble Nears Bursting, Crypto Market Faces Short-Term Pressure

marsbit06/09 11:06

Monera Digital｜Crypto Market May Report: Four Major Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline

Monera Digital Crypto Market May Report: Four Key Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline The crypto market experienced a significant downturn in May, driven by an internal liquidity crisis rather than external macro factors. Bitcoin fell from around $82,850 to $73,674, even as traditional markets rallied in the final week, highlighting a clear "liquidity transmission failure" specific to crypto. Four primary internal factors caused the accelerated sell-off: 1. **Major ETF Outflows:** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $2.425 billion for the month, the third-largest monthly withdrawal since their launch. Ethereum ETFs also reversed to net outflows. This turned a key pillar of the bull run into a source of selling pressure. 2. **Holder Capitulation:** On-chain data showed textbook "surrender" patterns. The Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio fell below 1.0, indicating this cohort is now in aggregate loss. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric also deteriorated significantly. 3. **Contagious Negative Sentiment:** The Coinbase Premium Index, which shows U.S. institutional buying/selling pressure, turned deeply negative for most of the month. This confirmed the ETF outflows and reflected a strategic shift away from crypto toward assets like U.S. Treasuries. 4. **Leverage Unwinding and Psychological Breaks:** Despite the downturn, futures open interest initially grew, signaling leveraged positioning. This culminated in a sharp deleveraging event with $307 million in long liquidations. Furthermore, the price broke below the critical $75K-$76K support zone, which is both a key gamma option level and the approximate average cost basis for major public companies holding Bitcoin, turning them from potential buyers into potential sellers. The report concludes that the market's pricing power has shifted from macro narratives to internal liquidation. While Bitcoin's 200-week moving average quantile has entered a historical "value zone" at 10.2%, this indicates a deep bear market reset is underway, not an immediate reversal. A sustainable recovery will require both a genuine improvement in the macro liquidity environment and clear signs of renewed on-chain demand, such as ETF inflows resuming and the Coinbase Premium turning positive. Until then, discipline and capital preservation are paramount.

marsbit06/09 07:46

Monera Digital｜Crypto Market May Report: Four Major Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline

marsbit06/09 07:46

Bitcoin Above $63,000: Two AI Models Outline Next Scenarios For BTC’s Move

Bitcoin has recovered above $63,000. Two AI models analyzed by CCN provide differing outlooks. ChatGPT outlines four scenarios: a 60% chance of a volatile but overall upward trend, a 25% chance of a deeper correction toward $60,000, a 10% chance of an explosive bull run, and a 5% chance of black swan events. Its single most likely "chaos case" predicts repeated 10-20% swings without a clear sustained direction. Claude's outlook focuses on upcoming macro catalysts. It presents three conditional scenarios based on May CPI data and the June FOMC meeting: a hot CPI could trigger a drop toward $55,000; an in-line print would likely lead to sideways movement between $60k-$68k; and a cooler CPI could spark a relief rally toward $70k-$75k.

bitcoinist06/09 07:31

Bitcoin Above $63,000: Two AI Models Outline Next Scenarios For BTC’s Move

bitcoinist06/09 07:31

Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin's long-term technical setup is approaching attractive, accumulation-zone levels, suggesting a potential cycle bottom in Q2/Q3. However, he cautions that a major macroeconomic obstacle could delay a sustained bullish reversal: a looming US Treasury refinancing wall. In 2027, $3.67 trillion of government debt matures and must be refinanced at significantly higher interest rates. Coutts argues current market liquidity is insufficient to absorb this issuance smoothly, especially as capital continues rotating out of crypto and into AI-related equities and commodities since late 2025. This liquidity constraint, combined with a potential contraction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, poses a risk to all risk assets, including Bitcoin. While Bitcoin may be the first to detect a future shift toward increased Fed liquidity, Coutts believes such a shift may only come after stress emerges in the Treasury market. Therefore, despite a positive technical structure, Bitcoin's next durable bull phase may hinge on navigating this significant macro refinancing challenge.

bitcoinist06/09 02:01

Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says