# Fed Articoli collegati

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Highlights: A Comprehensive Market Analysis Amidst the Stalemate in the Middle East and Stagflation Expectations

marsbit1 h fa

The Narrative of Gold's Rise is Becoming Harder to Sustain

The article argues that the narrative supporting gold's price surge is weakening, leaving only a fraction of its original justification. Historically, gold's primary drivers were its role as a safe-haven asset during crises (like the 2000 dot-com bubble and 2008 financial crisis) and as a hedge against inflation (e.g., during the Fed's QE periods). However, the author contends these core logics are now eroding. First, gold's safe-haven属性 is diminishing as its price action has recently become correlated with speculative assets like Bitcoin and US stocks, moving in sync with them on news like Trump's comments. This suggests投机属性 may be overshadowing its traditional避险 role. Second, the inflation hedge argument is weakening. The Federal Reserve's projected minimal rate cuts through 2026 suggest a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for significant USD depreciation. Similarly, the Japanese Yen's贬值 expectations are also easing. The author identifies only "0.5" reasons left for gold's rise: continued purchases by China's central bank. While China has been a consistent buyer, its purchasing speed has drastically slowed from a peak of nearly 600,000 ounces per month to a recent average of just 30,000 ounces. This minimal volume is deemed too small to significantly impact the global gold market, especially compared to London's daily clearing volume of over 18 million ounces. Furthermore, a technical divergence exists: gold prices accelerated upward in late 2024 even as China's buying slowed. The article concludes that with its避险属性 potentially exhausted, inflation expectations subdued, and China's buying influence limited, the current gold price appears to have overshot its fundamental supports. The author advises against high expectations for further sustained gains barring an extreme black-swan event.

比推8 h fa

Bitget UEX Daily | US Abandons Bombing of Iranian Energy Facilities; Crude Oil Transport Resumes in Strait of Hormuz; Storage Chips Face Supply-Demand Imbalance with Soaring Price Forecast

Bitget UEX Daily Digest: Key updates on March 24th include the U.S. deciding against bombing Iranian energy facilities, leading to the resumption of crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical tensions eased, boosting risk appetite in markets. Fed officials maintained expectations for four rate cuts this year, despite Middle East-related oil volatility. WTI and Brent crude saw technical rebounds after sharp declines, while gold and silver stabilized. Cryptocurrencies rallied, with BTC rising 4.3% to $70,600 and ETH up 4.7% to $2,140. Crypto total market cap increased 3.6% to $2.5 trillion. U.S. equities advanced, led by tech stocks like NVDA, AAPL, and AI infrastructure players. Storage chip stocks surged on supply-demand imbalance expectations, with Wedbush predicting DRAM prices could rise 130-150% in H1 2026. Key events ahead include S&P Global PMI data, Fed speeches, and PDD earnings. Market sentiment remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and inflation trends.

marsbit9 h fa

Gold Has Stabbed Everyone in the Back

The price of gold has experienced a severe decline, dropping over 27% from its all-time high of $5,600 to around $4,100, marking its worst performance since 1983. This contradicts the conventional wisdom that gold acts as a safe-haven asset during crises, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has driven oil prices above $100 and closed the Strait of Hormuz. Analysis reveals that gold's behavior over the past three years has resembled that of a risk asset, not a hedge. It moved inversely to inflation and correlated strongly with U.S. stocks, challenging traditional narratives. While central bank purchases provided a foundation, the surge was fueled by speculative institutional investors using leveraged derivatives, where paper gold claims vastly outnumbered physical supply. This created a bubble vulnerable to liquidation. The recent crash was triggered by expectations that persistent inflation and high oil prices would delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and reducing gold's appeal. Leveraged positions were forced to unwind, sparking a downward spiral similar to the March 2020 liquidity crisis. The future remains uncertain. If the war continues and stagflation sets in, gold could rebound as in the 1979 oil crisis. Alternatively, further deleveraging may push prices lower. Regardless, the episode underscores that no asset is immune to liquidity demands during panics, and gold's role is now at a critical crossroads.

比推22 h fa

Middle East Conflict Rekindles Rate Hike Expectations, Gold Suffers Worst Sell-off in 43 Years

Gold suffered its worst weekly decline in 43 years, with spot prices falling for eight consecutive sessions—the longest losing streak since October 2023. Silver also plunged over 15%, while platinum and palladium followed lower. The sell-off was triggered by escalating Middle East conflicts, which drove up oil prices and reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts. Market bets on a Fed hike by October rose to 50%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold amid higher real rate prospects. Technical indicators worsened, with RSI falling below 30, triggering stop-losses and self-reinforcing selling. Gold ETFs saw outflows for three straight weeks, losing over 60 tons. The situation echoes the 1983 crash when OPEC nations sold gold reserves to raise cash amid an oil price collapse. Despite a 4% year-to-date gain, macro conditions have deteriorated. Rising energy prices may reduce global GDP by 0.3% and lift inflation by 0.5-0.6%, increasing stagflation risks. Gold’s future trajectory hinges on real rates and geopolitical developments—further rate hike expectations could sustain pressure, while any de-escalation may revive safe-haven demand.

marsbitIeri 02:52

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbitIeri 02:20

Gold breaks KEY support with 3.7% drop – Will crypto face pressure next?

The latest inflation report, with February's hotter-than-expected PPI, triggered a 3.7% drop in gold, breaking key support. This sell-off is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, making traditional safe havens more attractive. Historically, a stronger DXY negatively impacts risk assets like crypto. Bitcoin is currently stagnant near $70k with negative funding rates and declining capital inflows, indicating a bearish bias. The falling Coinbase Premium Index and increased short positions suggest a crypto downturn may already be priced in, especially given macro pressures and the historical inverse correlation between DXY and BTC.

ambcrypto03/21 05:19

Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Fell Below The $70,000 Level Again

The Bitcoin price fell below the critical $70,000 support level due to a sharp market pullback triggered by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates. This reinforced a "higher for longer" monetary policy stance, extending the expected timeline for rate cuts to 2026. High interest rates make money more expensive, reducing investment in risky assets like cryptocurrencies. The drop erased the week's gains as BTC fell 3% from $72,400 to under $70,000 shortly after the announcement. Despite the bearish sentiment, data shows a 3.9% increase in large whale addresses holding 100+ BTC over the past three months, indicating continued institutional confidence. Macro events, including upcoming Fed meetings, CPI and PCE data, and geopolitical tensions, will continue to influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

bitcoinist03/21 04:02

Dialogue with Fundstrat Research Director: After Accurately Predicting the Plunge, Bitcoin's $115,000 Target Remains Unchanged, Hyperliquid Aims for $100

In a recent interview, Fundstrat's Head of Crypto Research Sean Farrell maintains a cautious short-term outlook on crypto markets despite his unchanged long-term Bitcoin target of $115,000 by year-end. He accurately predicted the February crash, citing extreme positioning, miner selling, and low cash reserves. Farrell describes the current environment as a "trader's market," advising caution and holding dry powder. He highlights risks from private credit stress, potential lack of follow-through buying after large institutional purchases (like MicroStrategy's), and geopolitical uncertainty. Farrell remains highly bullish on Hyperliquid (HYPE), with a $100 price target. He notes its low 90-day correlation (0.4) to Bitcoin and its massive growth in perpetual futures volume for assets like gold and oil, seeing it as a key portfolio diversifier. Key catalysts for a more bullish stance would be a market capitulation event, a break above key moving averages, or positive regulatory developments, though the Clarity Act's passage faces significant banking lobby opposition. For the upcoming Fed meeting, he advises watching for any shift in the dot plot pushing rate cuts to 2027, which would negatively impact risk assets.

marsbit03/20 05:19