# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Morning Post | Trump Media Group Releases Q1 Financial Report; Top Three DeFi Applications Return Nearly $100 Million in Revenue to Token Holders in 30 Days; Michael Saylor Shares Bitcoin Tracker Info Again

**Title: Daily Briefing | Trump Media Group Releases Q1 Report; Top 3 DeFi Apps Return Nearly $100M to Token Holders; Michael Saylor Signals Potential Bitcoin Buy** **Summary:** Key developments in the past 24 hours include: * **Economic Outlook:** Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the next two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, citing persistent inflationary pressures from energy costs. This delayed timeline is expected to tighten liquidity flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. * **DeFi & Revenue:** Data from DefiLlama shows that three leading DeFi applications—Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, and EdgeX—collectively distributed $96.3 million in revenue to their token holders over the last 30 days. This trend highlights a shift in the crypto community's focus towards real protocol earnings and sustainable economic models. * **Corporate Bitcoin Moves:** Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy (note: referred to as 'Strategy' in the text, likely a typographical error), has signaled potential upcoming Bitcoin purchases by posting a "Bitcoin Tracker" update, following a pattern that typically precedes the company's official disclosure of new acquisitions. * **Market Integrity:** Prediction market platform Polymarket announced updates to address platform issues, including identifying and banning clusters of accounts involved in "ghost-fill" activities and implementing measures to prevent bulk account creation. * **Regulation:** The Bank of England Governor warned that stablecoin regulation could lead to tensions between US and international regulators. In South Korea, the National Tax Service has launched a pilot program to entrust seized virtual assets to private custody firms for management. * **Meme Token Trends:** GMGN data lists the top trending meme tokens on Ethereum (e.g., HEX, SHIB), Solana (e.g., FWOG, TROLL), and Base (e.g., SKITTEN, PEPE) over the past day. **Financial Note:** Trump Media & Technology Group reported a Q1 loss of approximately $4 billion, primarily attributed to unrealized losses on its Bitcoin and other digital asset holdings.

链捕手05/11 01:32

Morning Post | Trump Media Group Releases Q1 Financial Report; Top Three DeFi Applications Return Nearly $100 Million in Revenue to Token Holders in 30 Days; Michael Saylor Shares Bitcoin Tracker Info Again

链捕手05/11 01:32

TACO Is Outdated, Wall Street Is Betting Heavily on NACHO

The article discusses a shift on Wall Street from the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading theme to a new one called "NACHO" (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). This change reflects the market's adaptation to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran in late February. Unlike TACO, which bet on former President Trump de-escalating crises, NACHO bets on a protracted stalemate keeping the vital oil chokepoint shut. Key evidence for the NACHO regime includes a fundamental decoupling of oil prices and the S&P 500 since late March. While Brent crude has remained elevated (around $109 in May), the stock index has rallied to new highs. The market is pricing in a long but finite period of high oil prices, as seen in the steep futures curve. This theme is backed by real money in three derivatives markets: soaring war risk insurance for ships, an inverted oil futures structure, and evaporating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Within the equity market, the NACHO dynamic has caused a sharp divergence, with the energy sector (XLE) vastly outperforming the transportation sector (IYT), which is highly sensitive to fuel costs. The article notes a concrete deadline for this trade: early June. Analysts warn that global commercial oil inventories could approach critical "operational pressure" levels by then, potentially triggering more severe market disruptions if the Strait remains closed. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to the Strait reopening normally before June.

marsbit05/10 01:32

TACO Is Outdated, Wall Street Is Betting Heavily on NACHO

marsbit05/10 01:32

‘TACO’ Is Outdated, Wall Street Embraces ‘NACHO’ Trading

The Wall Street trading meme "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) is being replaced by "NACHO" (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), signaling a major shift in market expectations. TACO bets anticipated de-escalation from political figures, but this pattern broke on March 23rd when a Trump social media post claiming progress with Iran was denied by Tehran, causing a sharp but temporary market reversal. Since then, markets have adopted a NACHO mindset, betting the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for an extended period. This view is reflected in three key markets. First, war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the strait have skyrocketed. Second, the oil futures curve shows a steep backwardation, with near-term prices far exceeding long-dated contracts, indicating expectations for a prolonged but not permanent supply crunch. Third, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for 2026 have been priced out to zero due to persistent oil-price inflation. While the S&P 500 continues hitting record highs, the market internally reflects NACHO's impact. The energy sector ETF (XLE) has vastly outperformed the transportation sector ETF (IYT), as high oil prices directly benefit producers but squeeze transport and logistics companies' margins. The NACHO trade has a concrete deadline. Analysts warn global commercial oil inventories could reach critical "operational pressure" levels by early June. If the strait remains closed into September, OECD stocks may fall below the operational floor. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to the strait reopening before June. The market has shifted from reacting to political headlines to pricing in the physical realities of oil supply and inventory clocks.

marsbit05/09 04:16

‘TACO’ Is Outdated, Wall Street Embraces ‘NACHO’ Trading

marsbit05/09 04:16

Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says incoming Fed Chair Wash is highly unlikely to cut rates and could even consider raising them, citing FOMC pushback and persistent inflation. He remains bullish on the AI-driven stock market rally, comparing it to historical tech revolutions like Microsoft's founding (1981) and the commercialization of the internet (1995). Jones believes this AI bull market is only about 50-60% complete and could continue for another 1-2 years, though he warns the current period resembles the late stages of the 1999 dot-com bubble, setting the stage for a potential sharp correction if valuations become extreme. He also cautions that AI requires eventual government regulation to mitigate long-term risks.

marsbit05/08 15:44

Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

marsbit05/08 15:44

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

The article "BIT Research: After Gold's Sharp Decline, Why Could It Reach $5,000 Faster?" presents a bullish outlook for gold despite recent price drops. It argues that the core bullish structure remains intact, with the recent sell-off seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal. The primary drivers are expected to be a re-pricing of the US dollar and the interest rate path. The market currently prices in a potential 2026 rate hike, yet simultaneously expects a more dovish stance from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, creating a contradiction. A correction of these expectations could weaken the dollar and lower real rates, fueling gold's ascent. Additionally, the expanding US national debt provides long-term structural support. Technically, gold is forming a consolidation pattern with higher lows, suggesting underlying strength. Quantitative and trend models have turned bullish, with historical data from similar signals pointing to an average ~12.8% gain over two months, projecting a target near $5,306. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting, the July BRICS summit, and the September US fiscal cliff. In summary, the convergence of a potential dollar downturn, interest rate re-pricing, supportive technicals, and upcoming macro events could propel gold into a new phase of accelerated growth, with $5,300 as a near-term target.

marsbit05/08 07:39

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

marsbit05/08 07:39

Key Lawmaker 'Relents', Wash's Biggest Obstacle to Assuming Fed Chair on May 15 Cleared

Key political opposition to Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair has been removed after Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) withdrew his objection, clearing the way for a committee vote on April 29. Tillis had previously blocked the nomination due to a criminal investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell, which he viewed as a threat to Fed independence. The Justice Department has since dropped the investigation. Warsh, who has broad Republican support, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate in time for Powell’s term expiration on May 15. If confirmed, Warsh has signaled significant policy changes, including abolishing the "dot plot" of interest rate projections and reevaluating the Fed’s forward guidance framework. These changes could fundamentally alter the market’s pricing mechanisms for stocks, bonds, and currencies. Although the criminal case against Powell is closed, uncertainty remains as he retains his board seat until 2028. President Trump has not fully endorsed Powell, citing an ongoing review of Fed renovation spending. Warsh’s potential reforms target the communication tools developed post-2008, which have become foundational to global asset pricing.

marsbit04/27 02:55

Key Lawmaker 'Relents', Wash's Biggest Obstacle to Assuming Fed Chair on May 15 Cleared

marsbit04/27 02:55

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Valuation: Why $143,000 Remains Achievable?

In Q2 2026, Bitcoin's valuation target of $143,000 remains achievable, representing a potential 2x upside from the current $70,500 price. Despite a 27% decline since Q1, the overall macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 liquidity hit a record $13.44 trillion, though Chinese-driven liquidity (over 60% of growth) has limited access to Bitcoin markets. U.S. monetary policy, a key driver, faced delays due to Iran conflict-induced oil price spikes, pushing March CPI to 3.3% and reducing Fed rate cut expectations. However, the easing direction persists. On-chain metrics show recovery from panic zones, with key resistance at $78,000 (long-term holder cost basis). Institutional flows turned positive, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows and corporate buying accelerating. Yet, network activity reveals stagnation—active addresses fell 13.2% YoY, suggesting superficial transaction growth. The revised $143K target (down from $185.5K in Q1) applies a -10% adjustment for weak fundamentals (BTCFi ecosystem contraction) and +20% for macro support. Key catalysts include breaking $78K, sustained ETF inflows, and geopolitical stability aiding Fed policy shifts.

marsbit04/24 02:12

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Valuation: Why $143,000 Remains Achievable?

marsbit04/24 02:12

"Form Over Substance" Fed Hearing: Warsh Avoids Interest Rates, But Offers Reassurance for Crypto

Kevin Wash, nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, testified before the Senate Banking Committee, emphasizing his independence from former President Trump and stating that Trump never asked him to commit to specific interest rate decisions. Wash avoided extensive discussion on monetary policy but called for institutional reforms at the Fed, advocating for a gradual and cautious reduction of the balance sheet without clear signals on rate cuts. The hearing was seen as largely symbolic, with Wash’s confirmation hinging on political negotiations offstage, particularly whether Trump drops his investigation into current Chair Powell. Notably, Wash expressed a crypto-friendly stance, acknowledging digital assets as part of the U.S. financial services industry and committing to divest his own crypto holdings if confirmed. This marks a positive signal for the crypto market from a potential Fed leader.

Odaily星球日报04/22 12:05

"Form Over Substance" Fed Hearing: Warsh Avoids Interest Rates, But Offers Reassurance for Crypto

Odaily星球日报04/22 12:05

Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives

Tiger Research analyzes Bitcoin's valuation outlook for 2026 from macro and on-chain perspectives. Despite a 27% price drop in Q1, the macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 hit a record $13.44 trillion, but Chinese liquidity, which contributed over 60% of M2 growth, has limited access to Bitcoin markets. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, raising March CPI to 3.3% and narrowing the Fed's rate cut path. However, the easing direction remains intact. Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in March after five months of outflows, and corporate accumulation continues. On-chain metrics show a shift from undervaluation to early equilibrium. Key indicators like MVRV-Z and NUPL have exited panic zones. The critical resistance is at $78k, the long-term holder cost basis, while the key support is at $54k. Although transaction counts increased, active addresses and average transfer size declined, indicating superficial growth rather than real network expansion. BTCFi ecosystem growth has weakened, leading to a -10% adjustment in fundamental metrics. The 12-month price target is set at $143k, based on a $132.5k neutral benchmark adjusted by -10% (fundamentals) and +20% (macro). This represents a 103% upside from current levels. Short-term catalysts include a break above $78k, sustained ETF inflows, and a Fed policy shift post-geopolitical de-escalation.

marsbit04/22 08:14

Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives

marsbit04/22 08:14

Warsh Hearing Firmly States: Will Never Be Trump's 'Puppet', Vows to Uphold Federal Reserve Independence

In a Senate Banking Committee hearing on his nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh strongly emphasized the Fed's independence, vowing he would "absolutely not" be a "puppet" for former President Trump. He stated that Trump never asked for, and he would never have given, any promise to cut interest rates. Warsh outlined plans for significant reforms at the Fed, including a new inflation framework, less frequent communication from officials, and a gradual reduction of its $6.7 trillion balance sheet. He argued the Fed's recent struggles were self-inflicted and that its large balance sheet had exacerbated wealth inequality ("K-shaped" economy). While not explicitly calling for rate cuts, Warsh suggested AI could boost productivity and create room for them, though he acknowledged its short-term inflationary risks. He also supported integrating digital assets into the financial system but opposed a Fed-issued CBDC. A key obstacle to his confirmation remains Senator Tillis, who vowed to block the nomination until a Justice Department investigation into Chair Powell is resolved.

marsbit04/22 02:58

Warsh Hearing Firmly States: Will Never Be Trump's 'Puppet', Vows to Uphold Federal Reserve Independence