# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Fed’s Cook says she’d support rate hike if disinflation stalls

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated she is prepared to support raising interest rates if U.S. inflation does not show continued signs of decreasing. Speaking at an economic event, Cook emphasized that inflation remains too high, with risks tilted more toward price stability than employment. While noting a recent decline in the annual inflation rate to 3.5% in June 2026, she cautioned against over-relying on a single data point. Cook highlighted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index remained at 3.7%, nearly double the Fed's 2% target. She warned that prolonged above-target inflation risks becoming entrenched in economic behavior, making it harder to control. Her stance signals potential pressure on crypto and other high-risk assets if the Fed tightens policy.

cointelegraph08/06 05:57

Fed’s Cook says she’d support rate hike if disinflation stalls

cointelegraph08/06 05:57

U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Misses Expectations! July ADP Employment Rises by Only 44,000, Lowest This Year, Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls Data Becomes Key

US Private Payrolls in July rose by only 44,000, falling short of expectations and marking the slowest growth so far this year, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The figure was significantly below the 65,000 forecast by economists and sharply lower than the revised 95,000 jobs added in June. The report indicates a potential cooling in the labor market's momentum. However, wage growth for job-changers accelerated to its strongest pace in nearly a year, showing continued resilience in pay pressures. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted a shift in hiring patterns, with employers adjusting to a changing macroeconomic backdrop. The much-anticipated official US nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday will be key in confirming this trend. Should the data align, the current employment conditions would support the Federal Reserve's continued focus on combating persistently high inflation.

marsbit08/05 15:01

U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Misses Expectations! July ADP Employment Rises by Only 44,000, Lowest This Year, Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls Data Becomes Key

marsbit08/05 15:01

Crypto finance company BIT predicts gold and bitcoin will rise together! Here are the details

Crypto finance company BIT (formerly Matrixport) forecasts that potential US dollar weakness and expectations of interest rate cuts could simultaneously support the prices of both Bitcoin and gold. Their analysis suggests that current macroeconomic conditions may positively impact both risk assets and the safe-haven gold. Technical indicators hint that gold may be forming a significant low and could be poised for a new upward trend, with Bitcoin likely to benefit from similar macro factors. BIT highlights that while markets expect the US Federal Reserve to hike rates twice this year, this scenario is not certain. If economic data differs, the Fed might not raise rates at all in 2023. Such a development could weaken the US dollar and strengthen market expectations for rate cuts. A weaker dollar is a traditional key support for gold prices, and Bitcoin has shown sensitivity to similar macro dynamics in recent years. Increased global liquidity and rate cut expectations could drive investors toward alternative assets. Market experts believe low interest rates enhance the appeal of both gold and Bitcoin, as they lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and encourage their use as inflation hedges. However, analysts caution that monetary policy expectations can shift rapidly based on incoming economic data, particularly inflation, employment, and growth figures, which will remain crucial in determining the Fed's future actions. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru08/05 11:21

Crypto finance company BIT predicts gold and bitcoin will rise together! Here are the details

cryptonews.ru08/05 11:21

Warsh Has Only Two Paths Ahead: Either Trigger "Financial Crisis 2.0" or Ignite "Dollar Crisis 1.0"?

In a critical analysis, economist aka Shan argues that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces two stark policy choices, either of which could lead to a severe economic crisis comparable to the Great Depression. Warsh has publicly committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, but with the US CPI averaging over 3% for the past decade, the task is monumental. Shan outlines two potential paths: First, maintaining a hawkish stance with continued rate hikes, quantitative tightening, and fiscal consolidation would pop the simultaneous and dangerously large AI, real estate, and private credit bubbles, triggering a "Global Financial Crisis 2.0" more severe than 2008. Second, caving to political pressure and reverting to zero-interest-rate policy and quantitative easing would accelerate the collapse of the dollar's purchasing power, leading to a "Global Currency Crisis 1.0." Shan emphasizes there is no middle ground. The analysis highlights the role of Cantillon Effects, explaining how money created from 2008-2020 flowed unevenly into financial assets, suppressing commodity prices. A critical shift occurred in 2022 as commodities began to catch up, locking in high inflation pressure for years. Given this backdrop and immense political pressure during a future "Lehman moment," Shan concludes the probability of Warsh sticking to a truly hawkish policy is "extremely low, close to zero." The more politically expedient path of renewed monetary easing, despite its long-term consequences for the dollar, is seen as the likely outcome.

marsbit08/05 11:06

Warsh Has Only Two Paths Ahead: Either Trigger "Financial Crisis 2.0" or Ignite "Dollar Crisis 1.0"?

marsbit08/05 11:06

Arthur Hayes' 10,000-Word New Article: When Will the AI Wave Peak? Will the Bubble Burst? Why Am I Frantically Buying ETH?

Arthur Hayes' latest article explores the intersection of AI investment, credit markets, and cryptocurrency. He argues that the massive capital expenditure (CAPEX) in AI infrastructure resembles a real estate-driven credit bubble, akin to the 2008 financial crisis, rather than a tech growth story. Hayes predicts that the AI bubble's peak will arrive in 2027, triggered not by failing AI profits but by a slowdown in the growth rate of data center construction and capex, revealing systemic over-leverage. He explains that banks, incentivized by government policy and steep yield curves, will continue lending to AI projects despite rising risks, expecting eventual government bailouts. Hayes further speculates that the US government might directly intervene by creating a sovereign wealth fund to buy AI equities, injecting permanent liquidity into the system. For crypto investors, this misallocation of capital is bullish. Hayes believes Bitcoin will bottom as AI capex growth decelerates but credit continues to flow, setting the stage for a major rally fueled by the inevitable large-scale monetary stimulus. He sets a rough year-end 2026 target of $5,000 for Ethereum, citing its potential role as a settlement layer for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) as a key narrative driver. The eventual government response to the AI credit bubble, he concludes, will unleash a cryptocurrency bull market unlike any seen since 2021.

marsbit08/05 06:42

Arthur Hayes' 10,000-Word New Article: When Will the AI Wave Peak? Will the Bubble Burst? Why Am I Frantically Buying ETH?

marsbit08/05 06:42

Will the U.S. Bond Market Trigger the Next Storm in U.S. Stocks? The Coming Week is Crucial

"Will US Treasuries Trigger the Next Storm in the US Stock Market? The Coming Week Is Crucial" summarizes rising concerns in financial markets. Long-term US Treasury yields have surged sharply, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007 and the 10-year yield breaking its trading range. This move is largely driven by growing market skepticism about the Federal Reserve's commitment to controlling inflation, especially after a rare dissent within the Fed's policy committee. Market volatility is increasing, as evidenced by the ICE BofA MOVE Index hitting a May high and demand for protective puts on long-term Treasury ETFs spiking to crisis-era levels. Analysts warn that stress in the bond market could soon spill over into equities, pressuring stock prices. The coming week is seen as critical, with several potential catalysts: the US Treasury's upcoming financing plan details and the key July nonfarm payrolls report. Both events could significantly influence interest rate expectations and potentially intensify market turbulence. The article concludes by noting the US Treasury market's foundational role in global finance, suggesting its ongoing instability could have widespread repercussions beyond bonds alone.

marsbit08/04 13:15

Will the U.S. Bond Market Trigger the Next Storm in U.S. Stocks? The Coming Week is Crucial

marsbit08/04 13:15

Goldman Sachs Stakes a Clear Position: This Is the Largest Capital Demand Cycle in Human History, and the Fed Is Just an Observer

Goldman Sachs argues that the world is entering the most capital-intensive investment cycle in history, driven by concurrent massive demands from AI infrastructure, reindustrialization, defense reinvestment, power grid rebuilding, supply chain realignment, and sovereign debt financing. This structural competition for capital is pushing its cost higher, fundamentally altering investment paradigms. Goldman's Mark Wilson states that the Federal Reserve is merely a "passenger, not the driver" in this shift, with rising yields rooted in these real economy demands rather than just monetary policy. While major indices appeared calm in July, underlying market movements were historic, featuring extreme stock dispersion and a severe momentum factor crash, leading to significant de-risking by fund managers. Wilson cautions against expecting a quick reversal in August, citing ongoing digestion of higher rates, disrupted risk models, and typically muted market performance ahead of US midterm elections. Corporate fundamentals remain robust with strong earnings, though growth rates are peaking in the US while accelerating in Europe. Notably, hyperscale cloud companies like Amazon and Microsoft are announcing staggering capital expenditure projections for 2027-2028, justified by explosive AI-related revenue growth and high returns. Amazon revealed its AI revenue run-rate exceeds $25 billion, growing triple-digits annually, and expressed confidence that AWS could become a trillion-dollar revenue business. The report concludes that a transitional period is underway, marked by a growing tension between aggressively investing private tech giants and increasingly capital-constrained sovereign governments. The AI super-cycle continues, with August likely being a consolidation phase.

marsbit08/03 09:46

Goldman Sachs Stakes a Clear Position: This Is the Largest Capital Demand Cycle in Human History, and the Fed Is Just an Observer

marsbit08/03 09:46

Analyst Assesses Bitcoin's Prospects After Investor Selling Wave

The beginning of August saw Bitcoin under significant selling pressure, with retail investors offloading around 32,000 BTC at a loss over several days, according to Bitbanker analyst Andrey Poroshin. He noted that while short-term investors are selling emotionally, long-term holders are accumulating, potentially laying the groundwork for the next upward cycle. The crypto market's focus this week is on key U.S. macroeconomic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Strong data could indicate economic resilience but might also reduce expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, acting as a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. Poroshin stated Bitcoin's fundamental backdrop remains mixed, pressured by high U.S. interest rates and retail sales. The cryptocurrency is currently trading below the estimated $73,000–$75,000 production cost for most U.S. miners, a rare situation that historically attracts long-term buyers. Technically, sellers maintain control. The analyst's base case for the near term is a decline towards the $60,000–$61,500 range, a strong demand zone from which a technical rebound could form. Separately, a Russian deputy finance minister announced that unqualified investors in Russia will soon be permitted to legally purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major stablecoins, with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary.

cryptonews.ru08/03 09:35

Analyst Assesses Bitcoin's Prospects After Investor Selling Wave

cryptonews.ru08/03 09:35

Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?

The market's expectation for a September Fed rate hike surged dramatically in early August, jumping from under 50% to over 80% within a week. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting, where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed growing dissent from hawkish members advocating for an immediate hike to combat persistent inflation. The primary catalyst for this repricing is rising oil prices, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which threaten global supply. Energy costs directly influence inflation metrics, making the upcoming July CPI report (due August 12th) a critical data point. If it shows inflation reaccelerating, the probability of a September hike will solidify. For Bitcoin and crypto assets, this is typically bearish news. Bitcoin continues to behave as a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk asset. A rate hike raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and could drive capital toward money markets, pressuring crypto prices in the short term. However, historical patterns suggest that if a hike is perceived as the end of a tightening cycle rather than the start, any negative price impact may be brief. U.S. stocks, particularly crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and growth-oriented tech stocks, are also vulnerable. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, putting pressure on high-multiple companies. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditure to tangible revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flow and weak growth narratives could face heightened volatility if borrowing costs rise in September. In summary, a September Fed hike has evolved into a mainstream market scenario. Key factors to watch are oil prices, the July CPI report, and Fed communications, which will determine the final decision and its impact on volatile crypto and equity markets.

marsbit08/03 02:10

Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?

marsbit08/03 02:10

Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?

In early August 2024, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike surged dramatically, from below 50% to over 80%, driven by renewed inflation concerns. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed a growing hawkish faction advocating for an immediate hike, citing prolonged above-target inflation. The key catalyst is escalating conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices up approximately 20% in July, threatening to reignite inflation. The next critical data point is the July CPI report on August 12th; a hot reading could solidify hike expectations. For crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, this represents near-term pressure. Bitcoin continues to exhibit high-beta, risk-on characteristics, making it sensitive to tightening liquidity and higher opportunity costs. However, historical precedent suggests that if a hike is perceived as the cycle's end rather than its start, the negative impact may be brief, with markets quickly pivoting to anticipate future rate cuts. U.S. stocks, especially crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and high-valuation tech stocks, face amplified volatility. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, pressuring growth stocks. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditures to demonstrable revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flows and weak growth narratives could see severe pressure if a September hike materializes, as financing costs would rise. Key indicators to watch include oil prices, upcoming inflation data, and Fed commentary at events like the Jackson Hole symposium.

Odaily星球日报08/03 02:06

Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?