# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

The 'Saving U.S. Treasuries' Baton Pass: Bessent Fumbled Last Week, This Week It's Wash's Turn

"Rescuing US Treasuries" Relay: After Bessent's Miss, All Eyes Are on Walsh Last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement to at least double long-term Treasury buybacks failed to sustainably lower yields, which quickly rebounded. The market response saw a drop in the dollar alongside surges in gold and Bitcoin, interpreted as a "pressure release valve" for anxiety. The focus now shifts to Fed Chairman Walsh's upcoming Jackson Hole speech. Markets are highly sensitive to his message, seeking clarity on the Fed's policy response to stubborn inflation and worsening fiscal conditions. Analysts warn that a lack of new guidance could disappoint markets and worsen the sell-off in long-dated bonds. Analysts question the scale of Bessent's operations, noting they are too small relative to the overall debt market and do not constitute quantitative easing. A key issue is the Fed's massive holdings of long-term bonds, which distorts the market. With the Fed holding low-yielding short-term bonds that are losing money relative to its policy rate, discussion is growing around a potential Fed-led "Operation Twist." This would involve selling short-term bonds to buy long-term ones, aiming to lower long-end yields without expanding the balance sheet. The upcoming PCE inflation data will set the stage for Walsh's speech. However, the window for action is narrowing amid political pressures. A critical threshold is the 30-year yield at 5%; holding above it could increase stress on the dollar and leveraged sectors. Overall, the article suggests that without coordinated Fed action to anchor inflation expectations, Treasury interventions may ultimately fail, with investors increasingly looking to assets like gold as hedges.

marsbit5h ago

The 'Saving U.S. Treasuries' Baton Pass: Bessent Fumbled Last Week, This Week It's Wash's Turn

marsbit5h ago

Generating Profits for Seven Consecutive Quarters, Emerging Markets Carry Trade Outperforms Everything

For the seventh consecutive quarter, dollar-funded emerging market carry trades have delivered positive returns, marking the longest winning streak since 2008. According to Bloomberg's index, this strategy has gained approximately 22% since late 2024, outperforming U.S. Treasuries, emerging market sovereign, and corporate dollar debt. The core of the trade involves borrowing low-interest currencies like the U.S. dollar, euro, or yen to invest in high-yielding emerging market assets, such as Turkish lira bonds offering over 40% returns. Returns were amplified by favorable currency moves, with the dollar weakening against most emerging market currencies and other traditional funding currencies. For instance, the trade gained 48% on the Colombian peso in the past year. A key test came in August 2024 with a historic joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention, which caused only a modest 1% dip in the carry trade risk premium as investors shifted funding from the yen to the euro and Swiss franc. Looking ahead, the primary risk is the timing of Federal Reserve policy changes. While persistent inflation allows the Fed to hold rates, a rapid rise in long-term U.S. yields could threaten the trade. Another concern is crowding, as massive inflows increase vulnerability to a sudden reversal. High interest rates in regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe, supported by external factors like Middle East tensions and energy prices, continue to sustain the opportunity. Major investors remain engaged, favoring currencies like the Mexican peso, South African rand, and Turkish lira.

marsbit6h ago

Generating Profits for Seven Consecutive Quarters, Emerging Markets Carry Trade Outperforms Everything

marsbit6h ago

Grayscale Lists 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Worth Buying Right Now

Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, suggests Bitcoin may currently be a favorable buying opportunity for long-term investors. In an assessment from August 21st, he based this view on three key factors, while emphasizing that Bitcoin's future behavior remains uncertain. The first factor is the enduring structural trend of Bitcoin adoption, driven by government deficits, growing blockchain use in financial services, and generational shifts in investment portfolios. The second is Bitcoin's market cycle position, noting the current bear market has lasted 10 months, approaching the typical duration of past cycles. The third factor is the macroeconomic outlook, particularly real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy, which has recently shifted to be more favorable. Pandl acknowledges Bitcoin's price volatility, referencing a recent swing to $79,461 before a pullback, and cautions that further Fed rate hikes could pressure prices. He concludes that, taken together, these three factors—ongoing adoption, a deep bear market phase, and generally supportive macro conditions—indicate current prices could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Grayscale's evaluation focuses on market conditions rather than predicting an absolute price bottom.

cryptonews.ruYesterday 22:50

Grayscale Lists 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Worth Buying Right Now

cryptonews.ruYesterday 22:50

Bitcoin Approaches the $80,000 Mark! Will This Rise Continue? Analysts Warn!

Bitcoin's recent surge is nearing the $80,000 mark, but analysis from CoinShares suggests the price could retreat below this level in the short term. According to the firm, a sustained breakthrough above $80,000 would require a clear signal from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it will not enact further monetary policy tightening. The report attributes Bitcoin's recent gains primarily to macroeconomic conditions, specifically moderated U.S. inflation and weakening labor market data, which have reduced expectations for more aggressive Fed actions. Despite hawkish tones in recent FOMC meeting minutes, subsequent data has further diminished the likelihood of additional policy tightening. Bitcoin, being sensitive to liquidity expectations and real interest rate changes, reacted sharply to these developments. Market indicators show a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, suggesting investors do not anticipate further rate hikes. Conversely, high 30-year Treasury yields reflect persistent concerns about U.S. fiscal prospects and debt sustainability. Analysts note that this combination of expected monetary easing and long-term bond market worries has historically created a favorable environment for Bitcoin. The rally was partly fueled by large-scale short position liquidations, with blockchain data indicating renewed accumulation by major investors. However, CoinShares warns that the $80,000 level will likely remain a critical resistance ceiling unless the Fed explicitly confirms a shift in policy risks.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 18:55

Bitcoin Approaches the $80,000 Mark! Will This Rise Continue? Analysts Warn!

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 18:55

QCP Capital Explains Bitcoin's Sharp Rise as Due to Falling U.S. Long-Term Bond Yields

QCP Capital's latest report explains Bitcoin's sharp rally from $64,000 to $79,000 in four sessions. Analysts attribute the surge to a reversal in the US long-term bond market. A sell-off pushed the yield on 30-year Treasuries near a 2007 high (~5.33%), prompting the US Treasury to announce expanded bond buybacks for liquidity support. This caused bond yields to fall, the dollar to weaken, and Bitcoin and gold to rise. QCP emphasizes this is not quantitative easing but a targeted liquidity measure. The pressure on long-term bonds is global, with yields rising in Japan and Europe. Competition for capital between sovereign debt and massive AI infrastructure financing is also cited. The initial Bitcoin breakout was driven by short covering rather than massive liquidations. However, the rally was later sustained by significant spot demand, including a $517 million net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs—the largest since May. Options markets reacted, with Bitcoin's implied volatility rising sharply. Key upcoming events include July's US PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. For crypto, QCP notes that while bond yields partially retraced their drop, Bitcoin and gold held most of their gains, highlighting their sensitivity to long-term yield and dollar movements. The report concludes that liquidity conditions, sovereign borrowing, and debt costs are now significantly influencing multiple asset classes, including crypto.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 14:23

QCP Capital Explains Bitcoin's Sharp Rise as Due to Falling U.S. Long-Term Bond Yields

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 14:23

Treasury Department Directly Intervenes to Suppress Long-Term Interest Rates

The article discusses the U.S. Treasury's recent direct intervention to suppress long-term bond yields through buyback operations. While distinct from traditional Yield Curve Control (YCC), this move is interpreted as direct government intervention in its own financing costs. The author emphasizes the short-term tactical nature of this action and contrasts it with the Federal Reserve's upcoming, potentially divergent, policy stance at Jackson Hole. The core issue is framed as a long-term U.S. strategic dilemma: managing high deficit levels. The analysis argues that deficit reduction cannot realistically come from spending cuts or traditional industries, but must rely on achieving higher economic growth driven by technological breakthroughs. Current monetary tightening, while possibly curbing yields and inflation in the short term, is seen as potentially counterproductive to this necessary long-term investment in technology and supply chain resilience. The piece draws historical parallels, placing the current intervention between the 2000-2002 Treasury buybacks (for liquidity) and larger-scale Fed-led "Operation Twist" maneuvers. The effectiveness of the Treasury's action is deemed limited without Federal Reserve cooperation, which would signify a more significant policy shift. Ultimately, the author views such technical, bureaucratic interventions as treating symptoms rather than the underlying disease of the U.S. economy's structural challenges and "K-shaped" divergence. The conclusion suggests that sustained yield suppression by the Fed, combined with specific geopolitical outcomes, could serve as a catalyst for a more profound discussion on broader U.S. and dollar trajectory.

marsbit08/21 03:36

Treasury Department Directly Intervenes to Suppress Long-Term Interest Rates

marsbit08/21 03:36

US Stock Market Trends (August 21): Long-Term Bond Repo Fails, Walmart's Warning Drags Dow Down 700 Points

**U.S. Market Trends (Aug 21): Long-Term Bond Relief Fizzles, Walmart Drags Dow Down 700 Points** U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow plunging over 700 points, as relief from the Treasury's long-term bond buyback plan proved fleeting. Major indexes declined as long-end Treasury yields and oil prices resumed their upward climb, reigniting inflation fears and pressure on high-valuation assets. The key catalyst was the rapid reversal in the bond market. The Treasury's expanded buyback program briefly calmed markets, but 30-year yields quickly rebounded near 5.26%, approaching recent 20-year highs. This signaled that liquidity interventions cannot overcome structural pressures from massive U.S. debt, fiscal deficits, and competing capital demands from AI infrastructure spending. Simultaneously, rising oil prices (WTI +2.3%) on geopolitical tensions renewed inflation concerns, squeezing consumer spending power. This pressure was highlighted by Walmart's 9% stock plunge. Despite beating earnings estimates, its weak U.S. same-store sales growth and lowered annual guidance exposed caution among lower-income consumers. Tech stocks faced broad pressure. The "Magnificent Seven" giants broadly declined, with Moderna crashing over 23% a day after a massive rally on vaccine trial news, exemplifying swift profit-taking. However, select semiconductor names (e.g., Marvell, Micron) gained on specific AI-related catalysts, indicating a more discerning market moving beyond hype to scrutinize real cash flows and capital expenditure sustainability. Bitcoin surged past $72,000, while gold seesawed near $4,500/oz. Alibaba's earnings showed strong AI cloud revenue growth but significant cash outflow due to infrastructure investments. The market's core takeaway is that Treasury actions provide only temporary relief, not a trend reversal. Focus now shifts to whether long-term yields can stabilize below 5.3% and to upcoming Federal Reserve commentary for clues on the rate path. Sustainable equity recovery hinges on the bond market calming and major tech stocks showing concurrent strength.

marsbit08/21 02:01

US Stock Market Trends (August 21): Long-Term Bond Repo Fails, Walmart's Warning Drags Dow Down 700 Points

marsbit08/21 02:01

Arthur Hayes Says Yen-Quake Could Put Bitcoin Back In Liquidity Spotlight

Arthur Hayes' "Yen-quake" essay presents a speculative macro thesis linking potential support for the Japanese yen to increased dollar liquidity and a bullish outcome for Bitcoin. He focuses on the Federal Reserve's FIMA Repo Facility, a tool allowing foreign central banks to obtain dollars using U.S. Treasury collateral. Hayes argues that using this facility could help Japan manage yen pressure without selling Treasuries, thereby injecting fresh dollar liquidity into global markets—a condition he views as supportive for Bitcoin and other risk assets. The article emphasizes that this is an analytical framework, not confirmed policy. It cautions against mistaking the theory for certainty, as crypto markets often do with liquidity narratives. However, the thesis is significant as it reflects Bitcoin's maturation into an asset discussed within global liquidity mechanics, with traders watching central bank actions for catalysts. Ultimately, the "Yen-quake" idea provides a lens for understanding potential interactions between Japan, the Fed, dollar liquidity, and Bitcoin, but remains an unconfirmed scenario.

bitcoinist08/21 01:21

Arthur Hayes Says Yen-Quake Could Put Bitcoin Back In Liquidity Spotlight

bitcoinist08/21 01:21

Analysts Assess Bitcoin's Recent Surge: Reality or Trap?

In a recent market analysis program hosted by Benjamin Cowen, experts discussed Bitcoin's surge past $70,000, peaking at $72,000. They attributed the initial spike largely to a massive short squeeze, with around $2.6 billion in short positions liquidated. However, analysts like Guy argued this alone is insufficient for a sustained bull run; consistent spot market buying is needed. A net inflow of over half a billion dollars into spot Bitcoin ETFs was noted positively. The $65,000-$67,000 range, previously resistance, is now viewed as potential strong support. The market also reacted to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement of doubling bond buyback operations to support liquidity, seen as a key confidence signal. Against a backdrop of high US debt nearing $40 trillion and geopolitical tensions, analysts noted a continued investor shift toward hard assets like Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against fiat devaluation. Regarding altcoins, analysts observed a recovery in Ethereum's ratio against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) and growing institutional interest in ETH, particularly for staking. They suggested the era of broad-based "rising tide" altcoin rallies may be over, with the market entering a phase where only projects with real utility and liquidity will thrive. Finally, on monetary policy, analysts cautioned that inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks persist. While noting actions by other central banks, they did not rule out the possibility of a future US Federal Reserve rate hike. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru08/20 21:31

Analysts Assess Bitcoin's Recent Surge: Reality or Trap?

cryptonews.ru08/20 21:31

Frenzied Sell-off

On the evening of August 19th, Bitcoin's price surged sharply, leading to a record closure of short positions totaling over $1.6 billion. This rally, lifting Bitcoin above $72,000 for the first time since early June, was mirrored by significant gains in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The price movement was attributed to a combination of factors, including substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—approximately $518 million on August 19th alone—and market reactions to former President Donald Trump's meeting with crypto industry representatives, where he advocated for the Clarity Act. However, experts caution this growth is likely temporary and technical, fueled largely by the massive short squeeze rather than a fundamental increase in demand. Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains low, with ETF inflows recovering only cautiously after major outflows in June, and retail investor activity is seasonally weak. Market participants believe Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months will depend heavily on the U.S. Senate's decision on the Clarity Act, which aims to provide clear crypto regulation, and on the Federal Reserve's signals regarding potential interest rate cuts. Until these events provide clearer direction, Bitcoin is expected to trade within its recent range, with volatility influenced by derivative market liquidations.

cryptonews.ru08/20 20:34