Key Takeaways
Was the October Bitcoin crash really about tariffs?
Derivatives data showed an overheated Bitcoin market. In short, the wipeout looked more like a leverage flush than a macro reaction.
What’s next for BTC heading into labor data week?
With cleaner positioning and whales defending $100k, BTC could retest key support before smart money rotates back.
The market continues to defy mainstream expectations.
Back on the 10th of October, headlines blamed Trump’s trade war with China for Bitcoin’s [BTC] 5.82% single-day dump, which triggered a record $19 billion in cascading liquidations across the crypto market.
Fast forward, and the White House has now confirmed a U.S.–China trade deal, yet the market’s still bleeding. So, was the tariff narrative “overhyped”?
If so, what does it mean for BTC as it heads into another big macro week?
What October’s selloff says about market positioning
The October crash appeared to be a textbook case of market manipulation.
Derivatives data showed a clear setup. Futures liquidity was stacked, with Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) peaking at a record $94 billion on the 7th of October.
Simply put, the Derivatives market was overheated.
Against that backdrop, the $19 billion wipeout that followed looked like engineered carnage designed to flush out overleveraged retail. In that context, the tariff war narrative was just a convenient cover.
Source: CoinGlass
The muted reaction to the recent trade deal only reinforced the setup.
Bitcoin OGs kept unloading, driving the Spot below the STH cost basis at $113k. STH NUPL flipped red, showing weak hands still getting shaken out, while OI dropped under $70 billion for the first time in ten days.
In short, market positioning looks cleaner, setting the stage for stronger hands to rotate back in. But with another macro-heavy week on deck, is BTC lining up for one more shakeout before smart money buys the dip?
U.S. labor data puts Bitcoin on watch as positioning resets
The data clearly pointed to a market reset in progress.
With an intraday drop of 3.32%, TOTAL market cap wiped out $140 billion, erasing the last three days of gains. Bitcoin led the move, accounting for 60% of the outflow, as bulls continue to unwind risk.
In short, macro pressure is back in play.
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks during the last FOMC about a softening labor market put extra weight on the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls print due for release on the 7th of November.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
In short, BTC’s move back toward $107k support isn’t random.
On the daily chart, the price looked set to retest the level for the fourth time since the October flush. But despite multiple attempts, $100k hasn’t cracked.
Instead, each “dip” gets absorbed, showing the bid wall’s holding strong.
In this setup, Bitcoin whale flow remained strategic, not reactive.
Whales have been offloading to flush weak hands and keep positioning tight. The play’s clear: Flush leverage, and defend $100k.
Once the macro overhang clears, rotate back in, making the $115k breakout just a matter of timing.
