Daily key market review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Markets
The US-Iran conflict enters its fourth week, with Trump issuing a 48-hour ultimatum on Sunday Beijing Time, demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its power facilities. Based on the posting time, the final deadline is 7:44 AM Beijing Time on Tuesday. Faced with extreme pressure, Iran强硬ly put forward six ceasefire conditions and threatened that if attacked, it would completely close the strait and target all US and Israeli energy and information infrastructure in the Middle East.
The actual oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 97% to a mere 600,000 barrels per day. Goldman Sachs' commodities team warned that the current supply gap of 17.6 million barrels per day is 18 times the peak of the 2022 Russian supply cut-off. If the blockade continues, oil prices could likely break through the historical high set in 2008.
Asia-Pacific stock markets were the first to be bloodied. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by up to 3%. Asian stocks generally plunged sharply, with the Nikkei 225 index falling over 5% at one point to below 51,000, the South Korean KOSPI index tumbling 6% to around 5,400, and the South Korean Won falling to its lowest level against the US Dollar since 2009.
Gold fell to around $4,300 today, erasing all gains made this year and retreating over 20% from its historical high in January. Regarding the precious metal's sharp drop, Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah warned that if the Middle East geopolitical situation damages energy facilities and forces the Fed to raise interest rates, gold prices could fall further to $4,000/ounce. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen believes that bullish sentiment in the market is only likely to reignite after gold market longs experience a "heartbreak" and a market washout.
Notably, China's largest gold producer, Zijin Mining, announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Zijin Gold will acquire and subscribe to shares of Chifeng Gold at a premium, spending over 18.258 billion RMB to obtain a 25.85% stake and absolute control. As the 14-day RSI falls below the oversold territory of 30, Dayou Futures researcher Duan Endian and Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda are betting on a short-term technical rebound, believing the era's geopolitical safe-haven foundation remains solid, limiting the downside. Additionally, large speculators like hedge funds have逆势 pushed net long positions in gold to a seven-week high.
Bitcoin Market
Impacted by panic sentiment from Trump's "48-hour ultimatum" to Iran, Bitcoin wiped out all gains accumulated over the weekend, nearly falling below the monthly opening price of $66,973. Notably, CME futures have a gap around $70,100. Analysts generally believe that if a rebound is rejected near $70,000, Bitcoin will continue to fall. It is also worth noting that the Bitcoin mining industry is in trouble, as the current production cost per Bitcoin has risen to $88,000, far above the current market price of $68,500, meaning miners lose about $19,500 for every block mined.
Bearish Views
Core Logic: Macroeconomic pressures are intensifying sharply. The positive correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks预示着 systemic risk. Technical aspects repeatedly show rallies failing and confirming a downtrend. Breaking below key support will point directly to the $50,000 range.
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Tony Severino: Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 turning positive is a dangerous signal. Historically, this phenomenon often预示着 stock market crashes and drags Bitcoin into the abyss, with a potential drop of up to 50% (target around $34,350).
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KillaXBT: The weekly close is extremely ugly; bulls have been completely destroyed. If a rebound is rejected at 70K, it will confirm a strong bearish trend on lower timeframes. Once the key support at 64.7K is lost, the price will inevitably fall below 60K.
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TedPillows: Bitcoin continues to form lower highs and lower lows. A crash to the $50,000 level is only a matter of time.
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Rekt Capital: Bitcoin is retesting the 200-week EMA, and the old all-time highs from 2021 and 2024 are now turning into new resistance levels. A monthly close below these levels lays the foundation for a bearish retest.
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Peak: The current price structure shows a clear bearish pattern. A探底 to the 50K region is no longer a fantasy.
Bullish Views
Core Logic: Extreme geopolitical panic has often been a historical bottom for Bitcoin. As low-leverage longs are liquidated, the short liquidity above has become a price magnet, suggesting a short-term short squeeze rebound is likely.
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KillaXBT: Geopolitical crises and market capitulation are when Bitcoin shines. 90% of people will panic sell, but the smart 10% will buy during conflicts. The current macro panic is an excellent opportunity for Bitcoin to bottom out.
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Sykodelic: The current price action is very similar to the bottom in late 2022. Despite极度 bearish market sentiment, underlying indicators like funding rates and premiums are strong. The market often reverses unexpectedly when the vast majority are bearish.
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LP: The long liquidation clusters below have been gradually cleared, while a significant amount of short liquidation value is accumulating above 72K to 77K. Before探底 to 60K, the price is highly likely to move towards the magnet above and liquidate these shorts.
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SuperBro: Bitcoin touching 67.3K has cleared most long leverage. Liquidity is now concentrated above,配合 the CME gap above. The market is set for a massive upward short squeeze this week.
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CrediBULL Crypto: Within the large consolidation range of 50K-70K, bottom formation is currently underway. 72K-75K is the key decision zone. A relief rebound in the short term is the most logical outcome.
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Anthony Scaramucci (Skybridge Capital): The current bear market is caused by long-term holders selling off around the $100,000 psychological barrier. The four-year cycle theory still holds, and a new bull market is expected to restart in Q4 2026.
Market Dynamics
Over the weekend, the stablecoin protocol Resolv was exploited by an attacker due to an off-chain permission vulnerability. Using only 200,000 USDC, the attacker illegally minted 80 million USR, quickly sold them for Ethereum, causing the USR price to crash 88%. Resolv has now burned 9 million illegally minted tokens and suspended the contract, confirming actual losses of about $500,000. It plans to allow whitelisted users to redeem USR from before the incident starting March 23.
Additionally, the MEME token SIREN experienced a暴涨 over the weekend, liquidating $14.91 million in the past 24 hours. On-chain analyst Yu Jin disclosed that the SIREN token suffers from extreme庄家控盘 (market manipulation). This manipulator controls a staggering 88.5% of the tokens (worth $1.44 billion). Among the top 54 holding addresses, 52 belong to this manipulator. Through spot market manipulation配合 futures harvesting, the token was forcibly pumped 30 times in a month and a half. Currently, this manipulator is suspected to be related to DWF Labs.
Key Data (As of March 23, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
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Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of $95.18 million last week, achieving net inflows for 4 consecutive weeks
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Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $59.94 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $640,000 last week
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $21.10 million last week
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Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
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Upbit 24h Trading Volume Ranking: TRX, XRP, BTC, ETH, BARD
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Sector Performance: Crypto market generally down, only AI and Meme sectors up
24-hour liquidation data: 135,019 people were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amount of $252 million. BTC liquidations were $78.56 million, ETH $50.25 million, SIREN $14.91 million.
Today's Outlook
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Backpack TGE on March 23
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Binance to launch PAYPUSDT U-based perpetual contract on March 23
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Polymarket to announce major news on March 23
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Cosmos ecosystem project Neutron opens dNTRN redemption
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Nillion: nilChain will cease operations on March 23, users need to migrate NIL tokens to Ethereum promptly
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Bloomberg Analyst: The earliest the US SEC might process Morgan Stanley's BTC ETF application is March 23
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G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Paris on March 24-25 for consultations to end the Iran war
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SOON to unlock ~21.88 million tokens worth ~$2.8 million on March 23
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Nillion to unlock ~114.4 million tokens worth ~$5.3 million on March 24
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SOSO to unlock ~13.33 million tokens worth ~$5.4 million on March 24
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MON to unlock ~170 million tokens worth ~$3.6 million on March 24
Top 100 coins by market cap today, biggest gainers: Siren +161%, River +11.2%, MemeCore +8.1%, Kite +6.6%, Monero +4.4%.
Hot News
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This Week's Preview | US SEC & CFTC joint crypto regulatory guidance takes effect; Polymarket to announce major news, community speculates涉及 financing or token launch
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Data: H, XPL, JUP and other tokens to see large unlocks, H unlock worth ~$10.2 million
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US CFTC refines crypto collateral pilot rules: BTC/ETH capital adequacy ratio 20%
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Resolv Labs: Burned 9 million illegally minted USR, do not trade related tokens during recovery measures implementation
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Analyst: SIREN manipulator controls up to 88.5% of tokens, controller suspected to be DWF Labs
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Sky联创 opens 20x leveraged gold long positions, gradually closing its SP500 short positions
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After being fully liquidated again, Jeffrey Huang (Machi Big Brother) opens new ETH long positions; his losses exceed $30.35 million
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Boyaa Interactive plans to spend up to $70 million to purchase cryptocurrency
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WeChat launches official Lobster plugin
