# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Hedging

Data Research: How Big Is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?

This analysis compares the liquidity and market structure of Hyperliquid's xyz:CL perpetual contract with CME's CLJ6 WTI crude oil futures. Key findings reveal Hyperliquid's absolute liquidity metrics are significantly lower than CME's, with its depth being less than 1% of CME's across various price points. The median trade size on Hyperliquid ($543) is 166 times smaller than on CME ($90,450), reflecting its crypto-native retail user base. While Hyperliquid exhibits high execution slippage for large orders (20x higher for a $1M order), its weekend trading activity shows a notable trend. Over three observed weekends, Hyperliquid's volume grew from $31M to over $1B, and its price discovery capability improved, closely aligning with CME's Monday opening prices by the third weekend. The increasing average trade size on weekends suggests growing use by traders seeking hedging exposure outside CME hours, not just speculators. The primary obstacle for Hyperliquid's expansion among institutional investors remains its high transaction costs for large orders. Without improving its capacity for institutional-sized trades, it risks remaining a supplementary weekend venue rather than a primary marketplace.

marsbit04/06 02:51

Data Research: How Big Is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?

This analysis compares the liquidity and market structure of Hyperliquid's xyz:CL perpetual crude oil contract with CME's CLJ6 futures contract over a three-week period from late February to mid-March 2026. Key findings reveal a significant liquidity gap: Hyperliquid's average depth is less than 1% of CME's, with a 125x difference at the ±2 bps level. The median trade size on Hyperliquid ($543) is 166x smaller than on CME ($90,450), reflecting its crypto-native retail user base. For a $1M order, estimated slippage on Hyperliquid (15.4 bps) is approximately 20x higher than on CME (0.79 bps), indicating it currently lacks the capacity for institutional-sized orders. However, a notable trend emerged during weekends when CME is closed. Hyperliquid's weekend trading volume grew significantly over the three observed weekends, from $31M to over $1B, and the average trade size increased, suggesting use by traders seeking exposure or hedging ahead of Monday's open. While an initial "discovery boundary" mechanism limited price discovery on the first weekend, subsequent weekends showed Hyperliquid's price increasingly converged with CME's Monday opening price, demonstrating its evolving price discovery capabilities. The report concludes that while Hyperliquid's absolute liquidity metrics are not comparable to CME, its growing weekend activity shows promise. However, high transaction costs for large orders remain a major barrier to attracting institutional participants.

Odaily星球日报04/06 02:50

Altcoins or metals? Here’s how investors are rotating amid rising risk

Amid rising macroeconomic volatility and declining risk appetite, investors are rotating capital away from Bitcoin, which faces selling pressure, and into select altcoins. Technical indicators show Bitcoin dominance encountering resistance at 60%, while the Altcoin Season Index has risen, suggesting accelerating altcoin rotation. However, the Bitcoin Risk Index mirrors 2022 patterns, indicating that altcoins remain highly vulnerable to BTC’s instability. If negative altcoin impulse exceeds 25%, broader corrective pressure may spread. Concurrently, investors are hedging risk by moving into hard assets like gold and silver, which have gained significantly. This deliberate shift into metals may continue to limit altcoin upside until Bitcoin stabilizes and overall risk conditions improve.

ambcrypto03/28 15:02

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Highlights: A Comprehensive Market Analysis Amidst the Stalemate in the Middle East and Stagflation Expectations

marsbit03/24 11:29

Mapping Volatility Through Time: Implied Volatility Heatmaps

Glassnode introduces two new implied volatility (IV) heatmap metrics—IV Moneyness Heatmap and IV Delta Heatmap—that visualize how options markets price risk across strikes and maturities over time, rather than at a single point. These tools help identify volatility regimes, such as periods of calm, stress, and transitions between them. The heatmaps display IV using color gradients, with red indicating high volatility and blue indicating low volatility. Key patterns include elevated put-side IV during drawdowns (signaling hedging demand), tail-risk repricing in deep out-of-the-money options, and regime shifts that inform trading strategies like hedging in low-vol environments or selling premium in high-vol periods. Available in Glassnode Studio, these metrics provide a dynamic view of market expectations and risk sentiment.

insights.glassnode03/23 08:38

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbit03/23 02:20

2008-style crisis ahead? – How crypto investors are reacting to ‘zero rate cuts’

With expectations of zero rate cuts and persistent inflation risks, crypto market dynamics are shifting toward capital preservation. While the total crypto market cap remains stable near $2.4 trillion, defensive positioning is evident as stablecoin supply hits a new all-time high of $316 billion. USDT outflows and declining exchange reserves indicate investors are moving liquidity into on-chain stablecoins, preparing to redeploy when risk appetite improves. Analysts warn that sustained high yields and borrowing costs could heighten systemic risks, echoing pre-crisis conditions. This cautious stance suggests stablecoins are becoming a key hedging tool amid deteriorating macro conditions.

ambcrypto03/21 11:07

BTC Market Pulse: Week 12

Spot market signals are mixed but constructive, with a return of aggressive buying pressure though overall volume remains subdued. Derivatives show rising but cautious engagement, with increased open interest and negative funding rates. ETF inflows accelerated, indicating renewed institutional demand. On-chain activity is muted with lower active addresses and stable fees. Capital flow and profitability metrics are gradually improving, pointing to reduced market stress. Overall, conditions show signs of stabilization and recovery, though broader conviction has yet to fully return.

insights.glassnode03/16 17:57

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

Based on a systematic backtest from 2018 to 2026, this study examines the long-term profitability of a monthly strategy of buying one deep out-of-the-money (OTM) put option on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with a target delta of 0.01 and a 30-day expiration. The results are highly divergent. The strategy is not a stable source of profit but a classic, path-dependent tail insurance tool characterized by extreme right skew, very low win rates, and severe drawdowns. For BTC, the strategy yielded a final total return of 97.62% (CAGR: 8.66%), while for ETH, it resulted in a -73.07% loss (CAGR: -14.78%). The performance difference is attributed to BTC's extreme payouts being sufficient to cover the long-term cost of premiums, whereas ETH's were not. Key characteristics of the strategy include: * Extremely low win rates (BTC: 2.04%, ETH: 1.02%). * Catastrophic maximum drawdowns (BTC: -97.24%, ETH: -93.82%). * The median trade return was -100% for both assets. * Profits are driven entirely by a few extreme winning trades, with the top 5 trades contributing over 10x the net profit for BTC. * Notably, not all major market crashes (e.g., March 2020, LUNA, FTX) resulted in profitable positions due to timing and strike price placement. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that a delta of 0.02 offered a more balanced risk-return profile across metrics. The strategy is best suited for investors who can tolerate years of continuous losses, view it as portfolio insurance rather than a primary alpha generator, and seek convexity against extreme downside events. It is not suitable for those seeking stable returns or with low risk tolerance.

marsbit03/16 11:11

Mapping Ethereum’s macro sensitivity – Oil, liquidity & why ETH absorbs it all

The Ethereum market is undergoing a significant structural shift, with derivatives now dominating price discovery. Futures trading on major exchanges like Binance has grown to be over 12 times larger than spot trading. This surge in leveraged activity makes the market more fragile, as evidenced by recent liquidations totaling $135 million, which can trigger rapid price cascades. Concurrently, Ethereum is displaying heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic forces. Rising oil prices above $100 and tightening global liquidity are pressuring risk assets. Due to its critical role as $58.54 billion in collateral within DeFi protocols, ETH is deeply embedded in the financial infrastructure. This positions it as a key gauge for macro risk in the altcoin market, causing its price to react more to geopolitical shocks, energy volatility, and institutional hedging flows than purely crypto-native demand.

ambcrypto03/16 10:09