# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Hedging

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Hedging", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Stuck in a Local Optimum, Prediction Markets Should Not Stop Here

This article argues that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are stuck in a "local maximum," similar to past tech giants like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While they've achieved initial success with a binary options model, the author contends this design is fundamentally flawed and prevents mass adoption. Core problems include severe liquidity issues (with wide bid-ask spreads and low activity in most markets), inefficient capital use, and a structure that fragments liquidity. The piece highlights that much of the reported trading volume is concentrated on a few major events or is incentivized/synthetic, masking weak organic demand. The author proposes that prediction markets must evolve towards a "perpetual contract" model, akin to those in crypto derivatives exchanges, to achieve their true potential as "markets for everything." This would require solving core structural problems like "jump risk" (sudden price moves from 45% to 100%), enabling native leverage, and allowing for continuous price discovery and hedging. Without this fundamental redesign, the current platforms will remain niche, unable to attract the broader user base and deep liquidity required for their grand vision.

marsbit01/06 06:40

Stuck in a Local Optimum, Prediction Markets Should Not Stop Here

marsbit01/06 06:40

Housing Price "Shorting Tool" Emerges as Polymarket Launches Real Estate Prediction Market

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has partnered with real estate data provider Parcl to launch a new prediction market for US housing prices. The collaboration will utilize Parcl’s daily housing price indices as a verifiable and transparent data source to settle market outcomes on Polymarket. Users can trade on whether prices in specific high-liquidity U.S. cities—such as New York, Miami, and San Francisco—will rise or fall over monthly, quarterly, or annual periods. All trading is done using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. This initiative effectively creates a “shorting tool” for real estate, allowing participants to hedge against or speculate on local housing market downturns without needing to buy or sell physical property. The move introduces a liquid, crypto-native trading layer for real estate price expectations—a market traditionally known for its illiquidity and high transaction costs. The launch has positively impacted Parcl’s native token PRCL, which saw a price increase of over 150% following the announcement.

marsbit01/06 03:45

Housing Price "Shorting Tool" Emerges as Polymarket Launches Real Estate Prediction Market

A new real estate prediction market has been launched on Polymarket in collaboration with Parcl, a blockchain-based real estate platform. The partnership integrates Parcl’s daily housing price indices into Polymarket’s prediction markets, enabling users to trade on future price movements of real estate in major U.S. cities such as New York, Miami, San Francisco, and Austin. The markets will allow participants to speculate on whether housing prices will rise or fall over monthly, quarterly, or annual periods, using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Settlement is based on Parcl’s transparent and independently verifiable data, addressing delays and subjectivity in traditional real estate reporting. This initiative introduces a form of “shorting tool” for real estate, enabling users to hedge against or bet on housing market declines without needing to buy or sell physical property. The move is seen as a significant step in bringing liquidity and real-time price discovery to an otherwise illiquid market, while also incorporating real-world asset (RWA) data into the crypto ecosystem.

Odaily星球日报01/06 03:39

The Era of 'Passive Income' Ends: How Will Crypto Options Carry the Banner of Returns in 2026?

The "lazy yield" era in crypto is ending as traditional DeFi yields compress. Crypto options are poised to become a key financial instrument by 2026, driven by three trends: the decline of easy yields, the emergence of simplified "entry-level products" that abstract options into one-click interfaces, and institutional validation from acquisitions like Coinbase's $2.9 billion purchase of Deribit. While on-chain options currently represent a small fraction of crypto derivatives volume, the success of platforms like Polymarket—which processed $9 billion in 2024—shows strong retail demand for probabilistic betting. New protocols like Euphoria are radically simplifying options into intuitive, gamified experiences, hiding complexity behind sleek UIs. Simultaneously, advanced DeFi options protocols (e.g., Rysk, Derive, GammaSwap, Panoptic) are evolving to serve institutional needs—offering structured products, hedging tools, and capital-efficient strategies for DAOs, funds, and LPs. These platforms provide transparent, composable, and non-custodial options infrastructure. The market will likely bifurcate: a retail layer focused on abstracted, dopamine-driven applications and an institutional layer offering sophisticated risk management and yield strategies. As passive yields diminish, options are emerging as the next frontier for both speculative and defensive crypto finance.

marsbit01/02 00:05

The Era of 'Passive Income' Ends: How Will Crypto Options Carry the Banner of Returns in 2026?

marsbit01/02 00:05

Why Bitcoin could remain choppy despite the end of LTH sell-off

Bitcoin's demand has improved as long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure has eased and U.S. Spot ETF outflows have declined, potentially setting the stage for a bottom or recovery. However, near-term price action is expected to remain choppy and subdued below $95K due to several January catalysts. These include tax-related selling, the MSCI's decision on MicroStrategy's index inclusion, the Fed rate decision, a government funding deadline, and potential crypto bill delays. Increased put option volume indicates significant hedging for a drop toward $80K-$83K, reflecting cautious institutional positioning despite improving underlying demand.

ambcrypto12/30 20:24

Why Bitcoin could remain choppy despite the end of LTH sell-off

ambcrypto12/30 20:24

No breakout yet – Why Bitcoin traders are on the defensive before the New Year

Bitcoin is poised to end 2025 in negative territory unless it closes above $94,000 by year-end, having declined 5.7% this year. Traders remain defensive amid choppy market conditions, with options data indicating strong demand for downside protection and a cautious institutional stance. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows of $5.5 billion in Q4 2025, largely driven by hedge funds exiting basis trades as yields dropped. Despite this, long-term investor conviction remains relatively intact. Market direction may stay muted until liquidity returns and key events, such as the MSCI index review in mid-January, are resolved. Bitcoin continues to trade range-bound between $85,000 and $94,000, with a breakout unlikely before early 2026.

ambcrypto12/30 05:02

No breakout yet – Why Bitcoin traders are on the defensive before the New Year

ambcrypto12/30 05:02

The Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System

The article "Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System" explains why retail traders often experience price movements against their positions after buying altcoins. It argues this is not due to market manipulation but is a result of automated market maker (MM) systems responding to inventory risk and toxic order flow. When traders place large buy orders, MMs sell inventory, creating a short exposure. To mitigate this risk, MMs adjust their pricing using the Avellaneda-Stoikov model. They skew quotes lower to attract sellers and widen spreads to reduce transaction probability, aiming to return inventory to a balanced state while protecting against adverse selection. The reservation price, central to this model, is calculated as the mid-price adjusted by inventory levels and risk aversion. The article notes that retail traders are particularly affected because their orders are often large, concentrated, and not hedged—especially in low-liquidity altcoins. A suggested strategy for traders is to break large orders into smaller, less detectable increments, allowing them to buy at progressively better prices as the MM’s quoting system reacts. The post teasers follow-up articles on order book dynamics and toxic flow.

marsbit12/28 04:18

The Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System

marsbit12/28 04:18

Gold and Silver Repeatedly Hit New Highs, Why Has Bitcoin Fallen Instead of Rising?

In 2025, precious metals surged dramatically, with silver breaking above $50 and reaching a record high of $72/oz, gaining 143% annually, while gold hit $4,524.30/oz with a 70% yearly increase. In contrast, Bitcoin fell 8% year-to-date to $87,498, down 30% from its October peak of $126,000. This divergence challenges the "digital gold" narrative, as macro tailwinds driving metals—such as a weaker USD, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks—did not extend to cryptocurrencies. Investors preferred established safe havens like gold and silver, with central banks and retail buyers increasing physical holdings. Studies confirmed gold's stability during macro shocks, while Bitcoin behaved more as a high-beta risk asset, correlating with equities. Structural demand differences widened the gap: silver benefited from both safe-haven and industrial demand (e.g., solar panels, electronics), whereas Bitcoin lacks real-world utility and relies solely on financial speculation and on-chain settlements. Without industrial demand, Bitcoin depends on ETF inflows, which have recently turned negative. Silver's rally reflects macro pricing of low real rates and a weak dollar, underscoring Bitcoin's exclusion from the hard asset system. For Bitcoin to recover, clearer regulation, renewed institutional interest, or heightened appreciation of its censorship-resistant features may be needed. However, silver's crowded positioning poses indirect risks to Bitcoin if volatility spikes. The 2025 divergence shows Bitcoin has not yet achieved "hard asset" status. While it may outperform under specific conditions, it currently lacks the institutional trust and industrial utility that support precious metals.

marsbit12/26 05:57

Gold and Silver Repeatedly Hit New Highs, Why Has Bitcoin Fallen Instead of Rising?

marsbit12/26 05:57

When Funds Flow into Gold and Silver, Bitcoin Is Temporarily Left Behind

In 2025, precious metals surged dramatically, with silver rising parabolically to a record $72/oz and gold reaching $4524.30/oz, up 143% and 70% annually, respectively. In contrast, Bitcoin fell 8% year-to-date and dropped 30% from its October peak. This divergence challenges the "digital gold" narrative, as traditional safe-haven drivers—such as a weaker dollar, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks—failed to boost Bitcoin. Investors preferred tangible assets like gold and silver, which benefit from institutional credibility and, in silver’s case, robust industrial demand from sectors like solar and electronics. Bitcoin, lacking industrial utility and relying on speculative and financial demand, struggled as ETF flows turned negative. While Bitcoin’s potential remains tied to future regulatory clarity or unique features like censorship resistance, it has yet to be integrated into the hard asset ecosystem. The 2025 trend underscores that macroeconomic tailwinds do not automatically extend to cryptocurrencies.

比推12/26 05:16

When Funds Flow into Gold and Silver, Bitcoin Is Temporarily Left Behind

比推12/26 05:16

Why Bitcoin shorts look confident now, even as $90K looms

Despite Bitcoin's potential to reach $90K, short sellers are exhibiting strong confidence due to a significant 23% price drop in Q4 and waning institutional demand. U.S. Spot ETFs have seen consecutive daily net outflows since mid-December, while Open Interest on the CME has fallen below $10 billion for the first time since September 2024, signaling a risk-off shift. The decline is partly attributed to the breakdown of the basis trade, whose yield has dropped from 10% to around 5%, making it less attractive. Analysts project a potential drop below $80K in early 2026 if weak sentiment persists. However, a surge to $90,600 could liquidate $3 billion in leveraged shorts. Options trading indicates a range-bound market with key levels at $85K for a dip and $88K-$90K for a rally.

ambcrypto12/25 22:02