# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Geopolitics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Geopolitics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Trading Moment: BTC Above $70K with CME Gap, Trump's Ultimatum Less Than 24 Hours Away

"Trading Moment: BTC Holds Above $70K with CME Gap, Trump's Ultimatum Under 24 Hours" Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, with a deadline at 7:44 AM Beijing time Tuesday. Oil prices face extreme volatility as the strait's oil flow plummeted 97%, potentially surpassing 2008 highs. Asian stocks plunged, with Japan's Nikkei dropping over 5%. Bitcoin retreated near $67K, erasing recent gains, while a CME futures gap around $70,100 remains. Mining costs now exceed $88K per BTC, creating significant miner losses. Analysts warn of potential drops to $50K if key supports break, citing Bitcoin's correlation with S&P 500 as concerning. Bulls argue geopolitical panic often creates historic bottoms, anticipating short squeezes toward $72K-77K. Market data shows extreme fear (index 11) with $252M liquidations. Bitcoin ETFs saw $95M inflows while Ethereum ETFs faced outflows. Notable events include Resolv protocol's $500K exploit and SIREN's 161% pump amid allegations of 88.5% supply manipulation. Key upcoming events include Backpack's TGE, Polymarket's announcement, and major token unlocks totaling millions in value.

marsbit03/23 06:36

Trading Moment: BTC Above $70K with CME Gap, Trump's Ultimatum Less Than 24 Hours Away

marsbit03/23 06:36

What happened in crypto today: Hormuz tensions, oil prices impact the market

Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz triggered a crypto market downturn, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a macro stress outlet. BTC swung between $68,265 and $71,051 before settling near $69,195, down 2.2%, with over $123 million in liquidations. Ethereum fell 2.1%, and the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 9, indicating rising fear. The sell-off spread to altcoins like XRP and SOL, with total market cap falling to $2.37 trillion. Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.2%, showing a defensive shift into BTC rather than altcoins. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $163 million in outflows on March 18, reversing prior inflows, though cumulative inflows remain above $56 billion. The market appears reactive, with fragile liquidity and no significant new capital entering.

ambcrypto03/23 03:02

What happened in crypto today: Hormuz tensions, oil prices impact the market

ambcrypto03/23 03:02

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbit03/23 02:20

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

marsbit03/23 02:20

Crypto market’s weekly winners and losers – KAS, DEXE, UNI, TRUMP

Bitcoin (BTC) declined 3.88% over the past week amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia, triggering a broader crypto market downturn. Despite the sell-off, several altcoins showed notable gains. Kaspa (KAS) rose 19.5%, breaking key moving averages, while DeXe (DEXE) climbed 18.62%, highlighting strength in the AI crypto sector. Fetch.ai (FET) and Quant (QNT) also posted gains of 16.55% and 12.6%, respectively. On the losing side, Uniswap (UNI) fell 12.4% due to DeFi sector weakness, and TRUMP token dropped 20.51% following a post-conference decline. OKB slid 12.57%, continuing its bearish trend after a recent rally. Other notable losers included Midnight (NIGHT), Render (RNDR), and Internet Computer (ICP). Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $65.6k support could signal a potential rebound, offering stronger altcoins a chance to recover in the coming week.

ambcrypto03/22 20:02

Crypto market’s weekly winners and losers – KAS, DEXE, UNI, TRUMP

ambcrypto03/22 20:02

Bitcoin slips below $70K, but is BTC’s $45K crash call overblown?

Bitcoin recently declined below $70,000, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and shifting political narratives, including U.S. policy changes regarding Iran. While some predictions on Polymarket suggest a potential crash to $45,000, deeper analysis indicates stronger confidence in Bitcoin reaching the $75,000–$80,000 range, with solid support expected around $55,000. Market analysts view the correction as a typical post-halving reset rather than a major crash, noting significant institutional buy support near $55,000. Despite short-term volatility and “Extreme Fear” in sentiment indicators, Bitcoin’s dominance remains high at around 58.76%, and ETF outflows are decreasing, suggesting potential stabilization. The market is likely to remain uncertain until Bitcoin decisively breaks above $74,000 or stabilizes near $65,000.

ambcrypto03/22 10:12

Bitcoin slips below $70K, but is BTC’s $45K crash call overblown?

ambcrypto03/22 10:12

Dialogue with 'The Network State' Author Balaji: The American System is Collapsing, Bitcoin is the Escape Plan

In a Bitcoin Magazine podcast, Balaji Srinivasan, author of "The Network State," argues that Bitcoin serves as both an alarm and an escape hatch from the collapsing U.S. system. He advocates for "network states"—cloud-first communities that later acquire physical land—as a new model for societal organization, contrasting with traditional states. These digital tribes, bound by shared values, would use internal cryptocurrencies and AI, with Bitcoin as the universal inter-tribal currency. Balaji describes the U.S. as descending into "warlord anarchism," where decentralized technologies exacerbate political divisions, eroding trust and consensus. He predicts the dollar's credibility will evaporate as Bitcoin gains dominance, representing a new "cryptocivilization" based on property rights, strict contracts, and transparent, automated governance. For individuals, he advises: "Cash out, emigrate, and move fast." He emphasizes that geographic location is more critical than asset allocation, recommending converting assets to crypto, renting instead of owning property, and securing a second passport. To salvage the current system, he calls for unleashing technological innovation, like humanoid robots, by freeing entrepreneurs like Elon Musk from regulatory constraints.

marsbit03/20 03:44

Dialogue with 'The Network State' Author Balaji: The American System is Collapsing, Bitcoin is the Escape Plan

marsbit03/20 03:44

Prediction Markets Take Center Stage, But Perp DEXs Quietly Profit from the US-Iran War

In late February 2025, escalating tensions in the Middle East led to large-scale airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, causing significant volatility in global financial markets. While traditional markets were closed during the weekend, investors turned to on-chain platforms to trade assets like gold, oil, and silver. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi saw a surge in activity, with war-related contracts driving record trading volumes. However, perpetual decentralized exchanges (perp DEXs), particularly Hyperliquid, also capitalized on the situation. Hyperliquid’s commodities contracts—including gold, oil, and silver—experienced unprecedented liquidity and trading volume, with silver contracts alone reaching over $3.5 billion in daily volume at their peak. The platform’s HIP-3 market, trade.xyz, saw weekend trading volumes hit all-time highs, attracting large institutional and high-net-worth users due to its transparency, lack of trading restrictions, and non-custodial nature. In contrast, centralized exchanges (CEXs), though also offering real-world asset (RWA) trading, lacked the same level of visibility and trust among sophisticated traders. Hyperliquid’s upcoming HIP-4 feature introduces outcome-based contracts for prediction and options-like products, further expanding its role as a platform for pricing uncertainty. The growth of perp DEXs reflects a broader trend toward 24/7, globally accessible financial markets, though regulatory challenges remain a potential risk.

marsbit03/20 03:16

Prediction Markets Take Center Stage, But Perp DEXs Quietly Profit from the US-Iran War

marsbit03/20 03:16

Crypto could rally in Q2: But tensions rise, as do real-world risks

Based on historical trends, there is potential for a bullish Q2 in the crypto market, as seen in 2025 when the total market cap surged 23.4% and Bitcoin gained 30% following a Q1 correction. This year's 20% Q1 drop has already been exceeded, indicating the market's ability to rebound quickly. However, currently down 18%, faces rising real-world risks. Geopolitical tensions, such as the West Asia crisis, and hotter-than-expected inflation data have triggered risk-off sentiment, causing significant sell-offs. Additionally, political uncertainty, including a high probability of a U.S. presidential impeachment, reflects broader economic weaknesses. These macro factors are increasingly influencing crypto, making a strong Q2 rally far less certain than before.

ambcrypto03/20 02:02

Crypto could rally in Q2: But tensions rise, as do real-world risks

ambcrypto03/20 02:02

TOKEN 2049 Summit Postponed, Capital Undercurrents Shift: Dubai's 'Crypto Heart' Status Faces Stress Test

The TOKEN 2049 cryptocurrency summit, originally scheduled for April 2026 in Dubai, has been postponed to 2027. This delay represents a significant reputational setback for Dubai, which has positioned itself as a global crypto hub. The event, known for attracting over 15,000 participants and industry leaders like Binance's CZ and Tether's Paolo Ardoino, serves as a key node for capital and talent flow. Its postponement signals heightened geopolitical risk perceptions in the region, challenging Dubai’s "safe haven" narrative built on regulatory innovation and zero-tax policies. Recent missile and drone attacks, though not causing physical damage to financial infrastructure, have eroded confidence in its stability. As a result, capital and attention are likely shifting toward alternative hubs like Singapore, which will host TOKEN 2049 in October 2026, and Hong Kong, which is attracting family offices with its regulatory frameworks and tax incentives. This reallocation is currently precautionary rather than a full-scale exodus, but it underscores a broader trend of jurisdictional diversification among crypto institutions. The episode highlights that future competition among global crypto centers will depend not only on favorable regulations but also on geopolitical stability and overall resilience.

marsbit03/19 14:12

TOKEN 2049 Summit Postponed, Capital Undercurrents Shift: Dubai's 'Crypto Heart' Status Faces Stress Test