# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Geopolitics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Geopolitics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Everyone Is Waiting for the War to End, But Does the Oil Price Suggest a Long-Term Conflict?

This article argues that the market views oil price volatility as a consequence of the ongoing conflict, but the real insight is understanding how the war itself is being priced through oil. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, global crude supply is being restructured, with Asian buyers shifting to US oil, causing WTI to surpass Brent—a sign of structural changes in pricing and trade flows. While short-term price differences can be explained by contract timing, the deeper issue is a fundamental shift in who can supply oil. The market's key misjudgment is not on price, but on time. Futures curves still imply the conflict will end soon and supply will recover. However, the more likely path is a prolonged war of attrition. This means high oil prices are not a temporary shock but a new structural reality, with a range of $120-$150. In this framework, oil is no longer just a commodity but the "upstream variable" for all assets. Its repricing will ripple through interest rates, currencies, equity, and credit markets. The market has priced in the war's occurrence, but not its persistence. The analysis concludes that a prolonged conflict is the base case scenario, and any pullbacks in oil prices present an opportunity as the market has yet to fully price in a long-term disruption.

marsbit04/07 07:30

Everyone Is Waiting for the War to End, But Does the Oil Price Suggest a Long-Term Conflict?

marsbit04/07 07:30

A Hidden Financial War? Iran Collects Strait Passage Fees with Stablecoins

Iran has officially institutionalized a mandatory toll system for all large tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting dollar-denominated payments. Instead, fees must be paid either via yuan-denominated wire transfers or in USD-pegged stablecoins via decentralized networks. The move is designed to bypass U.S. financial sanctions and traditional banking channels like SWIFT system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is implementing a tiered pricing model based on geopolitical alignment: allies like China and Russia pay the lowest rates, while U.S. allies and Israel are barred entirely. Vessels must display approved flags and are escorted through the strait after payment. This marks the first time a nation has integrated cryptocurrency into strategic-level payment infrastructure at commercial scale. The mechanism could channel over $20 billion annually in stablecoins through Iranian-controlled wallets, creating a grey liquidity pool shielded by sovereign power. However, risks remain. Compliance with sanctions from the EU and UK may void insurance coverage for vessels paying the IRGC, forcing shipowners to choose between longer routes or potential financial penalties. Russia is considering a similar model for the Northern Sea Route, signaling a broader shift toward using geographic chokepoints as financial leverage in a reordered global trade system.

marsbit04/07 03:51

A Hidden Financial War? Iran Collects Strait Passage Fees with Stablecoins

marsbit04/07 03:51

Iran greenlights crypto for Strait of Hormuz tolls – Is BTC ultimate war hedge?

Iran now accepts cryptocurrency payments for tolls from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting crypto's emerging role as a hedge during geopolitical turmoil and inflation. While Bitcoin saw a recent 4.06% price increase, it continues to underperform gold and struggles to break out against the U.S. dollar. Market data indicates Bitcoin is in a stabilization, not recovery, phase, remaining weaker compared to traditional assets like gold—which leads in market cap rankings—while Bitcoin ranks 12th. Despite this, Bitcoin dominance stands at 59.02%, and influential figures like Michael Saylor express strong confidence in its long-term value. Analysts suggest crypto markets will retain a geopolitical risk premium until there is clarity on conflict resolution.

ambcrypto04/07 00:02

Iran greenlights crypto for Strait of Hormuz tolls – Is BTC ultimate war hedge?

ambcrypto04/07 00:02

Bitcoin social chatter raises eyebrows – Will Saylor’s 105th buy cancel FUD?

Bitcoin's strong start in January 2026 faded as prices dropped below $80,000 by February, influenced by U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Despite outperforming gold, silver, and the S&P 500, bearish sentiment dominated social discussions, reaching peak fear levels since late February. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remained in "Extreme Fear" territory. However, Michael Saylor continued his aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, hinting at a 105th purchase. His company, MicroStrategy, now holds 762,099 BTC worth $52.59 billion. Despite a dip in MSTR stock, Saylor remains committed to long-term Bitcoin investment, dismissing short-term market noise. Upcoming events like the CLARITY Act and ongoing FUD may shift sentiment, potentially reversing the current negative trend.

ambcrypto04/06 13:06

Bitcoin social chatter raises eyebrows – Will Saylor’s 105th buy cancel FUD?

ambcrypto04/06 13:06

Crypto traders alert! Why Trump’s weekend post could trigger liquidations on Monday

Crypto traders are on high alert as former President Trump's weekend social media post regarding a potential escalation with Iran could trigger significant market liquidations on Monday. The crypto market, already vulnerable, closed Q1 with a nearly 21% loss, extending a severe downturn. This decline has moved in lockstep with soaring oil prices, which surged nearly 70% in Q1 due to Middle East tensions. Trump's post, warning of a severe attack on Iran's infrastructure, adds a critical layer of uncertainty. With U.S. stock markets closed over the weekend, the full market reaction has been delayed. Analysts now anticipate a highly volatile session when markets reopen, with oil potentially surging toward $200 per barrel. This could spark a sharp sell-off in equities, which would severely impact the crypto market. Bitcoin's positioning index has already turned negative, indicating traders are betting on further downside. The market is trapped in a liquidity crunch, making it extremely sensitive to any catalyst. A major, liquidation-driven downturn is now likely as Monday's session begins.

ambcrypto04/04 07:08

Crypto traders alert! Why Trump’s weekend post could trigger liquidations on Monday

ambcrypto04/04 07:08

Long Or Short? Bitcoin Research Shows What Traders Are Doing Right Now And What It Means

Bitcoin traders are exhibiting extreme caution, with a significant surge in short positions reaching near-record levels ahead of the Easter holiday, according to a K33 Research report. This bearish sentiment, reflected in leveraged short ETF exposure and persistently negative funding rates, suggests concentrated selling pressure. However, such defensive positioning has historically preceded market reversals. Analyst Vetle Lunde notes that the combination of oversold conditions, the potential for a short squeeze, and the possibility of disrupted seasonal patterns due to Middle East tensions create a volatile setup. The extreme bearishness could either lead to a sharp drop on bad news or a sharp rebound if sellers are exhausted and buyers return after the holiday.

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

Long Or Short? Bitcoin Research Shows What Traders Are Doing Right Now And What It Means

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

After a Missile Hit an Amazon Data Center

On April 3, a missile reportedly struck an Amazon data center in Bahrain, following similar attacks on its facilities in the UAE and Bahrain in early March. These incidents highlight how large-scale data centers are becoming strategic targets in conflict zones. The attacks caused significant service disruptions, including banking, payment, and food delivery outages, and revealed limitations in redundancy systems. Physical damage and service recovery are expected to take weeks, with direct losses estimated in the billions of dollars. Data centers are not only costly—up to $50 billion per GW for AI facilities—but also critical digital infrastructure. Major tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta plan to invest heavily in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia alone securing over $21 billion in data center commitments. However, rising geopolitical risks may shift future investments to more stable regions. While the current impact on global computing capacity is limited, the attacks may lead to higher costs due to increased security measures, multi-region backup requirements, and rising energy and insurance prices. Experts suggest that the growing strategic value of data centers makes them vulnerable, and future expansion may prioritize safety over low-cost advantages.

marsbit04/03 13:20

After a Missile Hit an Amazon Data Center

marsbit04/03 13:20

Has the Era of Global Central Banks 'Hoarding Gold' Come to an End?

The article questions whether the global central bank gold-buying spree, ongoing for 15 years, is ending. Citing a UBS report, it concludes that a structural shift to large-scale selling is highly unlikely. While the pace of purchases may slow to 800-850 tons in 2026 from 860 tons in 2025, central banks are expected to remain net buyers. The report challenges the narrative that recent sales, like Turkey's alleged sale of 50 tons, signal a trend. It argues Turkey's data is distorted by commercial bank positions and swaps, and its central bank uses gold for domestic liquidity management, not necessarily market speculation. Short-term price volatility is attributed to dollar strength and real interest rates, not central bank selling. The underlying logic for holding gold remains strong: over 60% of central banks follow a buy-and-hold strategy, with diversification being the primary motive. While short-term noise and price consolidation are expected, the medium-term outlook is bullish, with UBS forecasting an average 2026 price of $5000/oz and a year-end target of $5600/oz.

marsbit04/03 09:46

Has the Era of Global Central Banks 'Hoarding Gold' Come to an End?

marsbit04/03 09:46

Bitcoin looks fragile in Q2: Rising FUD signals bearish pressure for BTC

Bitcoin enters Q2 under significant bearish pressure as macro fears dominate sentiment. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-U.S. conflict, are the primary driver of market FUD, with an 86% probability of continued disruption. This has eroded investor confidence, preventing a FOMO-driven rally. Technically, BTC has slipped below $70k, with key support at $65k. On-chain data reveals growing stress, with 8.2 million BTC held at a loss. Large holders (whales) are realizing losses exceeding $200 million daily, indicating capitulation and heightened volatility. Historically, Q2 rebounds are possible, but the current risk-off environment and weakening conviction resemble the 2022 bear market, increasing the likelihood of a deeper downside rather than a recovery.

ambcrypto04/03 09:25

Bitcoin looks fragile in Q2: Rising FUD signals bearish pressure for BTC

ambcrypto04/03 09:25

At What Oil Price Would Systemic Market Risk Be Triggered?

Based on a UBS analysis, the key threshold for systemic risk in global markets is identified as $150 per barrel of oil. The report warns that breaching this level would trigger a dangerous negative feedback loop: soaring oil prices → resurgent inflation → tighter monetary policy → deteriorating financial conditions → collapsing demand → market panic. The impact of an oil shock is not linear but highly dependent on the initial economic vulnerability. In the current environment of high interest rates and weak growth, the damage from rising oil prices is significantly amplified. For instance, with a 40% baseline US recession probability, oil at $150 per barrel could cause an economic downturn nearly five times more severe than under milder conditions. UBS outlines two scenarios: in an ideal steady state, the US economy might withstand oil prices up to $200 per barrel. However, in a realistic risk scenario where financial markets react negatively, the critical threshold drops sharply to $150. At this level, three systemic pressures emerge: macroeconomic stagflation risks as central banks halt or reverse rate cuts; market-wide sell-offs due to compressed valuations and wider credit spreads; and a simultaneous slump in corporate profits and household consumption. The report cautions that markets are currently underestimating this nonlinear, cliff-like risk. While prices between $100-$130 may cause sector-specific stress, $150 represents a breaking point where localized damage transforms into a full-blown systemic crisis, accelerated by vanishing policy flexibility and collapsing market confidence.

marsbit04/03 07:32

At What Oil Price Would Systemic Market Risk Be Triggered?