# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Geopolitics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Geopolitics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Stop Focusing Only on Oil Prices, the Bond Market Is the Real Barometer

The bond market, not oil prices, has become the primary driver of global financial conditions amid the ongoing Iran war. Over the past 27 days, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged 50 basis points to 4.42%, shifting market expectations from multiple 2026 rate cuts to potential hikes. This rapid rise reflects renewed inflation fears, with 12-month expectations hitting 5.2%, while the labor market shows persistent weakness—over 1 million jobs were revised away for 2025. Historical "Policy Shift Zone" of 4.50%-4.70% for the 10-year yield is critical; breaching it likely triggers government intervention, as seen in past crises. Recent signals, including delayed strikes and peace talks," suggest such moves may be imminent. While oil remains elevated near $100/barrel, bond volatility now dictates equity pressures and policy responses. The administration’s market sensitivity implies interventions to prevent economic deterioration, likely leading to conflict de-escalation within weeks, not months. Despite short-term turbulence, the AI revolution continues accelerating. Monitor bonds—they’re setting the risk boundary.

marsbit03/27 06:55

Stop Focusing Only on Oil Prices, the Bond Market Is the Real Barometer

marsbit03/27 06:55

‘Oil prices infect everything’ – Can Bitcoin still weather this storm?

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are experiencing prolonged uncertainty, driven by macroeconomic pressures and heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Oil prices have become a central source of volatility, influencing inflation and interest rate expectations, which in turn pressure risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has shown resilience, maintaining a range between $65,000 and $76,000 without significant declines since the conflict escalated. Analysts attribute this stability to the crypto market’s maturation, including the presence of spot ETFs, corporate treasury purchases, and institutional involvement. However, spot Bitcoin accumulation remains relatively low at $4.99 billion over the past 60 days, indicating tepid demand. The market’s to face headwinds, with the key risk being whether oil-driven inflation forces the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise interest rates, potentially putting further pressure on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

ambcrypto03/26 11:52

‘Oil prices infect everything’ – Can Bitcoin still weather this storm?

ambcrypto03/26 11:52

The Oil Order is Breaking Apart: What Happens Next in the Middle East?

The article analyzes the breakdown of the longstanding implicit bargain that underpinned Middle Eastern oil and security order: the U.S. would not target Iran's regime, and Iran would not disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. This equilibrium shattered after a U.S.-Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025, which Iran viewed as crossing a red line. In response, Iran initiated a "selective blockade" of the Strait in 2026, allowing some ships (e.g., Chinese, Russian) passage while blocking others. The U.S. military buildup, including deploying a "lightning carrier" and planning a potential ground assault on Iran's oil terminals, has failed to reopen the Strait. The crisis is reshaping global alliances, as Iran uses transit permits as diplomatic leverage. Key structural shifts are underway: the Saudi activation of alternative oil pipelines, the erosion of the U.S. security guarantee, and a challenge to dollar-denominated oil trade. Two potential paths are outlined: a major ground war or a de-escalation through deterrence and backchannel talks. Regardless, the conflict is expected to be prolonged, with lasting impacts on energy routes, global inflation, and the petrodollar system.

marsbit03/26 10:48

The Oil Order is Breaking Apart: What Happens Next in the Middle East?

marsbit03/26 10:48

AI Welded into the War Machine | Rewire Evening News

U.S. presented a 15-point peace plan to Iran via Pakistan, demanding Iran dismantle key nuclear facilities, halt uranium enrichment, and reduce regional influence. Iran dismissed it as a "surrender list," though it offered minor concessions on Hormuz Strait transit. Meanwhile, AI is being integrated into U.S. war machinery, with Palantir and Anduril developing the $185 billion Golden Dome missile defense system, using AI for target identification and legal justification of strikes. China is seen as a potential AI leader due to massive unused power capacity and lower electricity costs, making AI operations significantly cheaper than in the U.S. SpaceX is reportedly preparing for a historic IPO, potentially valuing the company at $1.75 trillion and including Musk’s xAI assets. Other developments include JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s criticism of U.S. defense procurement, Axios reporting suspicious pre-market trades, and major tech firms like Amazon and Google accelerating investments in embodied AI and robotics. Meta lost a landmark child safety case, and Apple is testing a major Siri overhaul. Block’s CFO warned that AI-driven layoffs are "inevitable."

marsbit03/25 19:24

AI Welded into the War Machine | Rewire Evening News

marsbit03/25 19:24

‘Roles reversed?’- Bitcoin outperforms gold in ETF inflows

The Bitcoin vs. gold debate has resurfaced as Bitcoin outperforms gold amid geopolitical tensions. Since the onset of the West Asia crisis, Bitcoin has gained 8.5%, reinforcing its role as a potential hedge, while gold dropped 12%, contrary to traditional safe-haven expectations. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted a reversal in roles, cautioning against short-term judgments and describing gold as a "great diversifier but unreliable hedge." Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $167.23 million in daily net inflows on March 24, breaking a three-day outflow streak. March alone saw $2.5 billion in net inflows, nearly turning year-to-date flows positive. In contrast, gold ETFs experienced over $22 billion in outflows during the same period. The BTC/Gold ratio, though still in a multi-year range, showed Bitcoin outperforming gold by 32% in March. Fidelity suggests $60,000 as a potential cycle bottom, with Bitcoin eyeing $80,000 if ETF inflows continue.

ambcrypto03/25 17:02

‘Roles reversed?’- Bitcoin outperforms gold in ETF inflows

ambcrypto03/25 17:02

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

An article explores the potential impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% on Bitcoin's price, suggesting it could fall below $50,000. The analysis is prompted by the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has driven oil prices higher and fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields up. Historically, prolonged oil-related conflicts lead to sustained yield increases and pressure on risk assets like stocks. Given Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500, similar downward pressure is expected. Technical analysis indicates a bearish flag pattern for Bitcoin, with a break below it potentially leading to a drop to $50,000 or lower. Prediction markets also show a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes notes that prolonged conflict might force the Fed to print more money, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

marsbit03/25 09:36

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

marsbit03/25 09:36

Bitcoin Stuns Gold In War Rally—Safe Haven Crown Up For Grabs

US President Donald Trump's announcement of a five-day strike pause following diplomatic talks with Iran sent Bitcoin soaring above $70,000, while gold declined. Since US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, Bitcoin has gained roughly 30%, whereas gold dropped about 2%, losing nearly 25% from its all-time high. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $94.5 million, while some gold-backed funds experienced outflows. Analysts are watching the $72,000 level, with a break above potentially opening a path to $75,000. Despite the temporary de-escalation, renewed strikes add uncertainty, and the situation remains fluid.

bitcoinist03/25 08:01

Bitcoin Stuns Gold In War Rally—Safe Haven Crown Up For Grabs

bitcoinist03/25 08:01

Arm Steps Into Chip Manufacturing Itself | Rewire Morning News

Arm, after 35 years of only licensing its architecture, has begun manufacturing its own data center CPU, the 136-core Neoverse V3, with Meta as its first major client. This strategic shift aims to capture a larger market share and achieve significant revenue growth. In a separate legal battle, Anthropic is challenging the Pentagon's decision to ban federal agencies from using its AI, a move the presiding judge called "disturbing." Conversely, Palantir's military AI platform received a massive $13.4 billion funding commitment from the Pentagon, highlighting a stark divergence in the U.S. government's approach to AI militarization. Four tech billionaires presented conflicting visions on AI's impact. Perplexity's CEO and Palantir's CEO suggested AI-induced job loss is beneficial, while an OpenAI investor predicted 80% of jobs could be replaced by 2030. In contrast, BlackRock's CEO warned the greater threat is AI exacerbating wealth concentration. Circle's stock plummeted 18% due to proposed legislation threatening its business model, while Tether announced its first full audit by a Big Four firm, signaling a push for legitimacy amidst tightening regulations. OpenAI shut down its Sora video app, leading Disney to withdraw a $1 billion investment. An investor filing also revealed OpenAI now lists its major shareholder, Microsoft, as a top risk factor, indicating a strategic cleanup ahead of a potential IPO. Other notable news includes SK Hynix's record $8 billion order for EUV machines from ASML, Huawei's launch of a new AI accelerator, and Broadcom's warning that TSMC's production capacity is a major bottleneck for AI chips.

marsbit03/25 04:31

Arm Steps Into Chip Manufacturing Itself | Rewire Morning News