# Сопутствующие статьи по теме FOMC

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "FOMC", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

More Accurate Than Polls, More Dangerous Than Imagined: Prediction Markets in the Eyes of the Fed

The Federal Reserve is exploring the use of prediction markets, particularly Kalshi, as a real-time tool for policy insights. A Fed-affiliated working paper found that Kalshi’s predictions for core CPI and unemployment are statistically comparable to—and sometimes more accurate than—Bloomberg consensus estimates. Prediction markets aggregate real-money, belief-backed trading, offering frequent updates and capturing nuanced shifts that traditional surveys miss. For instance, Kalshi priced inflation uncertainty in real time during a trade policy scare—a dynamic monthly surveys couldn’t reflect. While these markets provide valuable signals, they also carry risks. Prices reflect both expectations and risk preferences, and heavy reliance on sports betting for liquidity makes macroeconomic markets vulnerable to regulatory changes. If sports betting is restricted, liquidity could dry up, increasing manipulation risks. Moreover, if the Fed openly uses prediction markets, it could create a feedback loop where traders manipulate smaller markets like Kalshi to influence broader policy communication and traditional financial instruments. Despite these concerns, prediction markets offer a uniquely timely and distributed form of expectation aggregation—especially for events like FOMC meetings, where informed participants trade with real stakes. The Fed should require open data transparency to mitigate manipulation and carefully weigh the signal against the noise.

比推02/24 18:33

More Accurate Than Polls, More Dangerous Than Imagined: Prediction Markets in the Eyes of the Fed

比推02/24 18:33

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