# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Cycle

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Cycle", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bitcoin Analyst Reveals How Long It Usually Takes For Altcoin Season To Happen

A Bitcoin analyst highlights that altcoin seasons historically occur rapidly, typically within one to two months, once Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) begins to decline significantly. Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance stands near 60%, suppressing major altcoin breakouts. However, past cycles—like those in 2017 and 2021—show that when BTC.D drops, capital quickly rotates into altcoins, triggering explosive rallies. For a sustained altcoin season, Bitcoin must first reach a new all-time high to boost market confidence and attract retail investors. Macroeconomic conditions, such as strength in risk-on assets, may also contribute to the shift.

bitcoinist01/20 22:03

Bitcoin Analyst Reveals How Long It Usually Takes For Altcoin Season To Happen

bitcoinist01/20 22:03

Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over: Realized Price Bands Show Holder Stress Above Key Levels

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this week, dropping below $92,500 amid renewed macro uncertainty and risk-off sentiment triggered by potential EU-U.S. trade tensions. Despite the pullback, analyst MorenoDV argues the market is not entering a cycle end but a phase of “risk redistribution.” Analysis of Realized Price by UTXO age bands shows newer short-term holders (1w–1m and 1m–3m cohorts) remain in profit, providing market stability. However, mid-term holders (3m–6m and 6m–12m cohorts) are underwater, with realized prices above spot, indicating concentrated stress but not yet capitulation. Sustainability hinges on mid-term holders viewing the drawdown as temporary rather than structural to avoid accelerated selling.

bitcoinist01/20 07:02

Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over: Realized Price Bands Show Holder Stress Above Key Levels

bitcoinist01/20 07:02

Bitcoin targets $98k – Decoding the liquidity vs. peak cycle debate

Bitcoin's cycle is not showing signs of an early peak despite some long-term projections, as global liquidity conditions remain supportive and have even reached new highs. This environment continues to benefit risk assets like BTC. Market risk is being redistributed rather than exiting, with short-term holders in profit and mid-term holders absorbing losses patiently. Price-wise, Bitcoin is consolidating around $95,000 after rebounding from the $91,000–$92,000 support zone. The immediate resistance lies at $97,000–$98,000. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest positive momentum, albeit slightly slowed. If BTC holds above $95K, further upside is likely. Overall, bullish sentiment prevails due to strong liquidity and reduced selling pressure.

ambcrypto01/19 06:32

Bitcoin targets $98k – Decoding the liquidity vs. peak cycle debate

ambcrypto01/19 06:32

Bitcoin Cycle Far From Over — Here’s What’s Happening

Bitcoin prices are consolidating around $95,000, withstanding the lingering effects of a significant Q4 2025 correction. Despite a 33% pullback from its all-time high of $126,198, the bull cycle is believed to persist. On-chain analysis reveals a redistribution of market risk. Short-term holders (1w-3m) are in profit, experiencing low psychological stress. In contrast, mid to long-term holders (3m-12m) are under pressure as their average acquisition costs ($114,808 and $100,748) are above the current spot price. Their decision to hold, rather than sell, is crucial. For the cycle to continue, a sustained bullish narrative is needed to keep these investors from exiting, allowing prices to rise and ease their losses.

bitcoinist01/18 16:01

Bitcoin Cycle Far From Over — Here’s What’s Happening

bitcoinist01/18 16:01

BTC Breaks Through $97,000, Crypto Market Stands at a New Structural Turning Point

Bitcoin surged past $97,000, reaching a high of $97,924, while ETH and SOL also rose but remained below key resistance levels. The rally triggered significant liquidations, with shorts seeing the largest losses since the October 2021 crash. Notably, crypto-related stocks outperformed traditional equities. A key driver is renewed institutional interest: after weeks of outflows, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a substantial $750 million net inflow in a single day. Bitcoin’s strongest gains occurred during U.S. trading hours, a reversal from late 2025 trends. Macro conditions remain mixed: December CPI held steady at 2.7%, but strong retail data and persistent inflation suggest the Fed will hold rates in January, though 150 bps of cuts are expected in 2026. Regulatory developments are critical. The CLARITY Act, aimed at defining U.S. crypto regulations, faces a key Senate vote. Industry opinion is split, with Coinbase withdrawing support due to concerns over DeFi and stablecoin rules, while others back the bill for providing regulatory clarity. On-chain, Ethereum staking demand remains strong, with over 30% of ETH supply locked. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) continued accumulating Bitcoin, adding 13,627 BTC. Market structure may be shifting. Analysts note that the traditional four-year cycle has weakened, with altcoins underperforming. A sustained rally may require broader ETF adoption beyond BTC/ETH, renewed wealth effect from major cryptocurrencies, and a return of retail investor interest—currently diverted to AI and tech stocks. The market is at a potential structural inflection point.

marsbit01/15 06:29

BTC Breaks Through $97,000, Crypto Market Stands at a New Structural Turning Point

marsbit01/15 06:29

BTC Breaks Through $97,000, Crypto Market Stands at a New Structural Turning Point

BTC surged past $97,000, reaching a high of $97,924, while ETH and SOL also rose but remained near key resistance levels. The rally triggered significant liquidations, with shorts seeing the largest squeeze since the "1011 crash." Notably, crypto-related stocks outperformed traditional equities. A key shift occurred in BTC ETF flows, with a notable $750 million net inflow after a period of outflows, signaling renewed institutional interest. Price action was strongest during U.S. trading hours, reversing previous weak performance in that session. Macro conditions showed stable but sticky inflation, with the Fed expected to hold rates, though 2026 rate cuts are anticipated. Regulatory attention is on the CLARITY Act, which aims to define U.S. crypto regulation but faces industry division, notably after Coinbase withdrew support. On-chain, Ethereum staking demand remains strong with over 36 million ETH locked. MicroStrategy continued accumulating BTC, now holding 687,410 coins. Market structure may be changing, with the classic "four-year cycle" potentially broken. A sustained rally may require: broader ETF adoption beyond BTC/ETH, strong continued outperformance from major assets to spur altcoin interest, and a return of retail investor attention currently focused on other high-growth sectors like AI.

Odaily星球日报01/15 06:20

BTC Breaks Through $97,000, Crypto Market Stands at a New Structural Turning Point

Odaily星球日报01/15 06:20

2019 déjà vu? Why Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin again

Based on analyst projections drawing parallels to the 2019 cycle, Ethereum (ETH) could be poised to significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC) once again. The ETH/BTC ratio, after hitting a low of 0.02, has already rebounded by 75% from its Q2 2025 bottom, mirroring the start of a historical 300%+ rally. This surge aligns with Ethereum's 80% price appreciation to $3.4k, far exceeding Bitcoin's gains in the same period. While Bitcoin's dominance is anchored by its massive market cap and status as a macro asset, Ethereum's strength is fundamentally driven. Key metrics show robust growth, including a record 58k TPS and a significant increase in its market share, which has jumped over 60% from a low of 8%. The growth of Real-World Assets (RWA), exemplified by Ondo Finance representing 11% of ETH's RWA TVL, further underscores its utility. The thesis suggests that as regulatory clarity emerges, Layer 1 blockchains like Ethereum are well-positioned to capitalize on market momentum. The sharp rebound in the ETH/BTC ratio may serve as an early signal of a broader, sustained breakout reminiscent of the pre-COVID era.

ambcrypto01/14 21:02

2019 déjà vu? Why Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin again

ambcrypto01/14 21:02

Primitive Ventures: The Crypto World Feels a Bit Dead

Primitive Ventures' Dovey Wan argues that despite Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs in 2025, the crypto market feels stagnant and disconnected. Key issues include a lack of altcoin momentum, underperformance against traditional assets like stocks and gold, and a significant divergence between onshore (U.S.) buying and offshore selling. U.S. investors bought spot Bitcoin, while international traders sold into strength and used leverage. Structural shifts, including Bitcoin ETFs and institutional products, changed liquidity dynamics. Retail interest declined, and miners sold Bitcoin to fund AI ventures. Major sell pressure came from early whales, miners, and gray market entities. The traditional 4-year cycle is broken; future performance depends on macro conditions and institutional adoption. Crypto must evolve from speculative asset to utility-driven technology to attract new cycles of investment.

marsbit01/13 12:40

Primitive Ventures: The Crypto World Feels a Bit Dead

marsbit01/13 12:40

Bitcoin Is Signaling A Rare Market Structure Not Seen In Years – Here’s What It Is

Bitcoin is exhibiting a rare market structure not seen since 2020, suggesting a potential bullish shift. Despite recent price drawbacks, BTC is holding above $90,000. Analysts, including Alphractal, note that a mere 4.5% price increase would flip its 1-year percentage change to green, a rare event historically linked to robust bull markets. Failure to do so would align with previous bearish cycles. Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows aggressive buying pressure, with the Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Bybit reaching extreme levels, indicating strong conviction from large buyers. Additionally, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has broken out from a short-term bottom, signaling a transition into a high-risk zone and hinting at a potential near-term rally.

bitcoinist01/12 21:51

Bitcoin Is Signaling A Rare Market Structure Not Seen In Years – Here’s What It Is

bitcoinist01/12 21:51

A Game with No Winners: How to Break the Deadlock in the Altcoin Market?

The altcoin market is currently trapped in a "four-lose dilemma" due to flawed token distribution models. The prevalent low initial circulation strategy, designed to artificially maintain high fully diluted valuations (FDV), has backfired. It creates a scenario where centralized exchanges, token holders, project teams, and venture capitalists all ultimately suffer. Exchanges face community backlash from poor token performance, holders experience price collapse as supply unlocks, projects damage the industry's fundraising capacity, and VCs see their long-term investment channels deteriorate. Market responses, such as the 100% initial circulation of meme coins and the community-centric MetaDAO model, have failed to provide sustainable solutions, often creating new problems like extreme volatility or alienating talented founders. A potential path forward requires rebalancing interests: exchanges should shift from arbitrary lockups to KPI-based unlocks; holders should demand transparency and control over major decisions without micromanaging; projects must only issue tokens with clear utility and product-market fit; and VCs should stop forcing token launches on every project. The next 12 months will be challenging as the market absorbs the last wave of excess supply from the 2021-2022 funding boom. However, this digestion period, coupled with more selective token launches and evolving standards, could lead to a healthier market. The long-term viability of the altcoin model depends on avoiding a "lemon market" where only failing projects issue tokens, while successful ones opt for traditional equity. Despite current hardships, tokens retain unique advantages for driving growth and building loyal communities when implemented correctly.

marsbit01/12 03:38

A Game with No Winners: How to Break the Deadlock in the Altcoin Market?

marsbit01/12 03:38

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