Is the market edging closer to a repeat of a 2022-style bear market?
Based on historical patterns, the possibility cannot be ruled out. Moreover, one key factor has weakened even more since the 2022 cycle, which adds weight to CryptoQuant’s view that we could be seeing a repeat scenario.
According to AMBCrypto, the 2024 post-halving cycle is the weakest so far. For perspective, Bitcoin [BTC] gained 1.3k% in 2017 and 60% in 2021 during the first year after halving, only to hit bear markets in 2018 and 2022.
Fast forward to the last post-halving cycle, and BTC’s year-end ROI in 2025 landed at -6.3%, showing just how muted returns have been compared with previous cycles. Naturally, the question arises: What changed?
The rise of ETFs has dampened the effect of scarcity-led rallies. ETFs are seeing billions in weekly outflows as the market flips risk-off. Put simply, institutional flows are capping the upside that used to fuel big gains.
The result? A growing loss of conviction. Unlike the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, which followed massive rallies, Bitcoin’s 20% drop so far in 2026 is the result of loss realization rather than a pure correction after euphoria.
Naturally, the question is: Is Bitcoin on track for a weaker cycle than 2022?
Bitcoin market stress continues
Bitcoin is showing a stress pattern very similar to May 2022.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s UTXOs in Loss (%) have re-entered the 27–30% zone, indicating that a large share of market participants has moved from profit into unrealized loss.
At the same time, Glassnode reports the 3D-SMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss at –$317 million/day, a level last seen in December 2022. Taken together, these metrics suggest that loss realization is gaining momentum.
Notably, this reinforces AMBCrypto’s thesis.
The divergence between the 2022 bear market and Bitcoin’s ongoing 20% correction is significant. While past bear markets followed massive rallies, the current drawdown is largely driven by participants realizing losses.
In this context, it makes sense that analysts are calling the BTC cycle “weaker” than 2022. With ETF flows capping upside and metrics showing stress, 2026 could turn out to be the softest post-halving bear market yet.
Final Thoughts
- Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s 20% drop in 2026 is driven by participants realizing losses rather than post-rally profit-taking.
- ETF outflows and on-chain stress metrics suggest 2026 could be the softest post-halving bear market yet.
