# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Cycle

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Cycle", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

A Game with No Winners: How to Break the Deadlock in the Altcoin Market?

The altcoin market is currently trapped in a "four-lose dilemma" due to flawed token distribution models. The prevalent low initial circulation strategy, designed to artificially maintain high fully diluted valuations (FDV), has backfired. It creates a scenario where centralized exchanges, token holders, project teams, and venture capitalists all ultimately suffer. Exchanges face community backlash from poor token performance, holders experience price collapse as supply unlocks, projects damage the industry's fundraising capacity, and VCs see their long-term investment channels deteriorate. Market responses, such as the 100% initial circulation of meme coins and the community-centric MetaDAO model, have failed to provide sustainable solutions, often creating new problems like extreme volatility or alienating talented founders. A potential path forward requires rebalancing interests: exchanges should shift from arbitrary lockups to KPI-based unlocks; holders should demand transparency and control over major decisions without micromanaging; projects must only issue tokens with clear utility and product-market fit; and VCs should stop forcing token launches on every project. The next 12 months will be challenging as the market absorbs the last wave of excess supply from the 2021-2022 funding boom. However, this digestion period, coupled with more selective token launches and evolving standards, could lead to a healthier market. The long-term viability of the altcoin model depends on avoiding a "lemon market" where only failing projects issue tokens, while successful ones opt for traditional equity. Despite current hardships, tokens retain unique advantages for driving growth and building loyal communities when implemented correctly.

marsbit01/12 03:38

A Game with No Winners: How to Break the Deadlock in the Altcoin Market?

marsbit01/12 03:38

Explaining what Bitcoin’s latest ‘all-time low’ means for traders like you

Bitcoin whale holdings have decreased significantly over the past year, suggesting a measured withdrawal rather than a full distribution phase. Meanwhile, the network's hashrate growth has stalled as BTC trades below miners' breakeven cost. Fidelity notes that Bitcoin's 1-year realized volatility has hit a record low of 42%, which historically has often preceded new all-time highs in price—though this may take months to materialize. While long-term whales and miners remain profitable, new whales (with a realized price around $99k) may sell at that level to break even, posing a threat to short-term bullish momentum. Although the market shows long-term stability, traders should remain cautious of potential consolidation or a deeper correction before any significant price surge.

ambcrypto01/10 06:01

Explaining what Bitcoin’s latest ‘all-time low’ means for traders like you

ambcrypto01/10 06:01

Bitcoin whales step back, but long-term holders stay put

Large Bitcoin holders (whales) have reduced their balances by approximately 220,000 BTC over the past year, marking the fastest decline since early 2023. However, on-chain data indicates this is a measured drawdown rather than panic selling. Crucially, long-term holders remain inactive, with the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple staying low at around 0.52. This suggests older coins are not being spent, which contrasts with historical cycle tops where both whale and long-term holder selling surged simultaneously. The current trend points to capital rotation or position adjustment, not a full-scale distribution phase. Bitcoin's price resilience near $91,000 supports the view that the market is healthily consolidating gains rather than forming a major top.

ambcrypto01/09 16:29

Bitcoin whales step back, but long-term holders stay put

ambcrypto01/09 16:29

Matrixport Research: Trading Environment Persists, But a New Uptrend Cycle Still Awaits

Matrixport Research: Trading Environment Persists, But a New Uptrend Cycle Still Requires Patience Entering 2026, Bitcoin's market dynamics differ from typical early-cycle rebounds. While recent technical indicators show signs of recovery, suggesting a tactically more positive stance, structural signals for a sustained bull market remain insufficient. Historical patterns indicate that once the price falls below the one-year moving average, it often enters a more challenging phase. Coupled with weakening capital inflows, this cycle is more probable to transition into a market environment demanding selective opportunities and strict trading discipline. On-chain data reveals that long-term holders continue to distribute their holdings in an orderly manner. Following the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, "super whales" initially increased purchases during the subsequent pullback but shifted to a net selling pattern since October 2024. This group has sold approximately $61 billion worth of Bitcoin cumulatively since then, maintaining net sales over the past 30 days. This selling pressure has been largely absorbed by mid-sized whales, resulting in price action characterized by back-and-forth consolidation within a high range rather than a typical parabolic top or panic selling. A core constraint of this cycle is the lack of incremental capital. The 30-day net change in Bitcoin's Realized Cap has been declining since its peak in late 2024. Despite multiple price rebounds in 2025, the underlying fund flows had already weakened. This divergence explains the previous unsustainable rallies and indicates that the current rebound is built on a fragile foundation of capital. Furthermore, growth in new addresses has slowed, indicating a lack of new, large-scale investor participation. The price is currently near the True Market Mean Price (TMMP), suggesting limited willingness for new buyers to chase the price higher. Historically, sustained upward movements require the price to break significantly above the TMMP, confirmed by synchronized capital inflows. Without this, the price is more likely to oscillate near the TMMP. In conclusion, while the technical repair allows for a tactically positive outlook, this uptick should be viewed as a tactical rebound rather than the start of a new structural bull cycle. Bitcoin still faces core constraints like insufficient capital inflows and ongoing selling by super whales, which will likely cap upside potential. The market is expected to offer periodic, trade-specific opportunities rather than a smooth trending market. In this environment, risk management and discipline should take precedence over long-only buy-and-hold strategies.

marsbit01/09 09:53

Matrixport Research: Trading Environment Persists, But a New Uptrend Cycle Still Awaits

marsbit01/09 09:53

Bitcoin Value Days Destroyed Reaches Lowest Point Of The Current Cycle, A Structural Calm?

Bitcoin's price is retesting the $94,000 level, yet on-chain metrics indicate a divergence. The Bitcoin Value Days Destroyed (VDD) ratio has dropped to a cycle low of 0.55, signaling a significant decline in selling pressure from long-term holders. This suggests reduced coin movement and a structural calm, as long-term investors are holding at current prices. Despite recent volatility, BTC remains within a multi-year ascending channel, forming higher lows and maintaining its upward trend as long as it stays above key support levels.

bitcoinist01/07 21:01

Bitcoin Value Days Destroyed Reaches Lowest Point Of The Current Cycle, A Structural Calm?

bitcoinist01/07 21:01

Altcoins face $657 mln supply shock: Is capital moving away from Bitcoin?

Altcoins face a significant supply shock with $657 million in token unlocks this week, arriving amid a risk-on market environment. While such unlocks can pressure prices, current technical and macro conditions suggest they may instead fuel liquidity rotation into altcoins. ALT/BTC appears to have bottomed in Q4 2025, with oversold RSI and a bullish MACD reversal. Major unlocks include one-time releases like HYPE ($330M) and APT, and linear unlocks like SOL, TRUMP, and DOGE. Strong on-chain metrics, such as Hyperliquid’s high open interest and TVL, indicate underlying support. This could break the Altcoin Season Index out against Bitcoin, potentially starting a new altcoin cycle.

ambcrypto01/06 23:02

Altcoins face $657 mln supply shock: Is capital moving away from Bitcoin?

ambcrypto01/06 23:02

Has the Supercycle Really Arrived? Fidelity's View on the 2026 Crypto Market

Fidelity's 2026 crypto market outlook explores the possibility of a sustained "super cycle" driven by growing institutional and governmental adoption. Key trends include more nations, like the U.S. and Kyrgyzstan, officially adding cryptocurrencies to their strategic reserves, and corporations increasingly holding digital assets on their balance sheets. While historical four-year cycles suggest potential near-term volatility, some analysts argue that new demand could dampen extreme downturns. Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper notes that short-term investors should remain cautious, but long-term holders may still find value, especially if Bitcoin continues to serve as a non-inflationary store of value. The market's structure is shifting toward mainstream acceptance, though cyclical patterns may persist.

比推01/06 09:28

Has the Supercycle Really Arrived? Fidelity's View on the 2026 Crypto Market

比推01/06 09:28

Fidelity 2026 Crypto Market Outlook: We May Be Entering a Supercycle, Bull Market to Last for Years

Fidelity's 2026 crypto market outlook suggests the traditional four-year cycle may be ending as institutional adoption of digital assets accelerates. Key trends include growing national crypto reserves, exemplified by the US and Kyrgyzstan establishing strategic holdings, and increasing corporate adoption, with over 100 public companies now holding significant amounts. While short-term investors should remain cautious due to recent volatility, long-term holders may still benefit. The report speculates whether the market is entering a multi-year "super cycle" rather than facing an immediate bear market, though confirmation may come by mid-2026. Ultimately, Bitcoin's long-term proposition as a non-inflationary store of value remains compelling for patient investors.

marsbit01/06 08:36

Fidelity 2026 Crypto Market Outlook: We May Be Entering a Supercycle, Bull Market to Last for Years

marsbit01/06 08:36

Liquidating Gold and Silver, I'm Betting on the True Direction of Liquidity

This article outlines a strategic shift in investment focus from precious metals to crypto assets, based on the author's analysis of market cycles, timing, and capital rotation. The author notes that gold and silver have had an exceptionally strong year, with gold hitting record highs and silver delivering top returns. However, the market is driven by cyclical patterns, not asset preference. The author has decided to liquidate precious metal holdings because they believe the current cycle phase is complete: defensive assets like gold have absorbed liquidity, provided safety demand, and achieved price discovery. Historical liquidity cycles show that after a strong rally in precious metals, capital typically rotates into risk assets like stocks, tech, and crypto. The author observes clear signals of this shift: precious metals are showing signs of having peaked annual highs, volatility is decreasing, and demand at high levels is weakening. While the technical patterns may not perfectly mirror past cycles (like 2017 or 2021), market psychology, expectations, and collective belief are powerful drivers. The majority of participants now believe in the four-year cycle and structural capital rotation, which can alter price paths independently of fundamentals. The author concludes that crypto assets are the next destination for this liquidity. Crypto remains undervalued, faces mainstream skepticism, and appears risky—conditions that often precede major rallies. The decision to sell precious metals is not a rejection of their value but an acknowledgment that liquidity has changed direction. Profiting in markets requires adapting to cycles and capital flows, not holding onto past winners. The optimal time for rotation is when most investors are still hesitant and awaiting confirmation.

比推01/05 05:19

Liquidating Gold and Silver, I'm Betting on the True Direction of Liquidity

比推01/05 05:19

Crypto Market Oracle: The Whale Who Nailed Every Top Makes 3 Bold Predictions For This Year

A crypto whale with a historically accurate track record of predicting market tops since 2015 has made three major price predictions for 2026: Bitcoin reaching $250,000, Ethereum hitting $20,000, and Solana climbing to $1,500. The whale emphasizes that the market is currently in an infrastructure-building phase involving ETFs, regulation, and institutional adoption, which will lead to a period of price decline and consolidation. This "pressure phase" will shake out weak investors, liquidate leveraged positions, and remove speculation, paving the way for steady, structural growth. The analysis suggests Bitcoin could correct to around $50,000 before entering a new accumulation and bull run phase, with macroeconomic trends supporting a methodical crypto market recovery in 2026.

bitcoinist01/03 16:59

Crypto Market Oracle: The Whale Who Nailed Every Top Makes 3 Bold Predictions For This Year

bitcoinist01/03 16:59

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