Bitcoin has remained in a downtrend since reaching its all-time high of $126,000 in October, as investors continued to sell and rotate into stable assets and other alternatives.
However, selling pressure now appears to be easing, with accumulation gaining momentum. This shift strengthens the possibility of a price recovery in the months ahead.
Is a new bull market coming?
The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio, which measures the risk-adjusted returns of investing in Bitcoin [BTC], suggests that a new bull market may be forming.
This assessment is based on the Sharpe Ratio reaching a historical level that preceded the 2021 bull cycle.
If historical patterns repeat, as they did during the last bull run that saw Bitcoin rally sharply, the leading cryptocurrency could have up to eight months of upside before entering a high-risk zone.
The high-risk zone on the chart often marks the start of a broader bearish phase in the market.
That said, Bitcoin’s price could still decline further if it fails to hold the current level that supported the last bull rally, potentially falling until it reaches the low-risk zone.
For now, investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin at current levels, with exchange reserves declining to 2.7 million BTC.
This decline means fewer Bitcoins are available on exchanges, where assets are more easily sold, and suggests that investors are moving more holdings into private wallets.
‘Wholecoiner’ accumulation trends
Bitcoin’s “wholecoiner” activity—defined as transactions involving more than one Bitcoin—into Binance has dropped significantly.
This reduction aligns with the decline in exchange reserves. Lower inflows into exchanges typically indicate reduced willingness among investors to sell.
Currently, wholecoiner inflows have fallen to a yearly average of 6,500 BTC, the lowest level for such transactions into Binance. The weekly average now stands at around 5,200 BTC.
While this decline highlights reduced wholecoiner activity on Binance, several factors may also be influencing the trend, including the growing use of multiple exchanges.
To gain a broader view of market behavior across platforms, Bitcoin netflow—used to assess whether investors are buying or selling—remains an important metric.
Netflow data shows that traders began the week with a bullish stance, recording a $9.7 million net buy. Total accumulation over the past week reached $1.39 billion, the highest level in nearly three weeks.
What long-term investors are doing
Examining the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders provides deeper insight into whether accumulation is truly underway.
Long-term holders (LTHs) are investors who have held Bitcoin for extended periods, typically more than 155 days, without moving their assets.
Any transaction from this group often signals a shift in sentiment, either bullish or bearish.
Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has fallen to zero on the chart, indicating that these long-term holders are not moving their Bitcoin.
As long as CDD remains at zero, selling pressure from this cohort should stay minimal, reinforcing the view that accumulation is ongoing and that the broader rally structure remains intact.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s accumulation is resuming, with the potential for a rally that could last up to eight months.
- Binance transactions involving 1 BTC or more have declined significantly, pointing to reduced selling pressure.
