Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price weakness has revived investors’ concerns of a deeper downturn, but several market analysts argue that an extended correction may be more constructive over the longer term.
Key takeaways:
Analysts say Bitcoin’s downside risk is centered around $65,000 to $75,000.
A potential three-day bullish divergence is forming, a setup that could align with a local bottom once momentum stabilizes.
Supply rotation and oversold conditions define BTC’s current price action
Crypto trader Jackis said that the current move is a macroeconomic range for 2025, noting that even a decline to $70,000 would not resemble prior bear markets. Unlike 2022 or early 2024, the current drawdown lacks systemic macro-driven risk-off pressure, instead reflecting a rotation of supply from early holders to institutional participants.
Meanwhile, market analyst Jelle highlighted a potential bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s three-day chart. The previous three-day divergences in this cycle have coincided with local bottoms, although the trader said that a confirmation requires additional time and consolidation.
Julien Bittel, the head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, reinforced this view by pointing to Bitcoin’s historical behavior following oversold RSI readings below 30.
According to data, Bitcoin tends to track a well-defined recovery path after such conditions emerge. While short-term volatility remains likely, Bittel argued that bases often take time to form and are usually accompanied by choppy price action before a sustained uptrend resumes.
Bittel contends that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s price behavior. Instead, extended debt refinancing cycles and evolving liquidity dynamics suggest the current market structure could persist well into 2026.
Related: Bitcoin price at ‘critical’ point as whale moves $348M BTC to exchanges
Longer Bitcoin cycles favor flatter but higher returns
Jurrien Timmer, the director of Global Macro at Fidelity, placed the current phase within a broader wave structure spanning 2022 to 2025. That period has already delivered a 105% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 145 weeks, closely tracking long-term regression models.
While Timmer acknowledged that Bitcoin may still experience a deeper correction into the $65,000 to $75,000 range in 2026, he emphasized that such zones have acted as strong buy zones.
Looking further ahead, Timmer expects future cycles to evolve with flatter slopes as adoption matures. Even so, the price modelling suggests a potential path toward $300,000 by 2029 if a new expansion phase emerges.
In this context, corrective phases may serve as the foundation for Bitcoin’s next structural advancement.
Related: Did Bitcoin's 4-year cycle break, and is the bull market really over?
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