2026-04-23 Четверг

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Why Bitcoin’s supply imbalance is hinting at more downside before recovery

Bitcoin has been in a bearish trend since October 2025, declining 46% from its all-time high of $126K. Large and mid-sized investors still hold 68% of the BTC supply, indicating that a broader distribution phase and structural market reset have not yet occurred. Short-term holders are likely to sell on any price bounce, as seen in the recent rejection at $76K. The UTXO Profit Count Percent further suggests market weakness, with its 365-day moving average at 87.5%—well above levels seen in previous cycle bottoms. Based on historical post-halving cycles, the market bottom is estimated to occur around late September to early October 2026, implying further potential downside before recovery.

ambcrypto04/02 07:11

Why Bitcoin’s supply imbalance is hinting at more downside before recovery

ambcrypto04/02 07:11

In the AI Era of Spending $2 to Earn $1, Founders Who Don't Build an IP Are Being Phased Out

In the AI era, founders who neglect building a personal IP are being left behind. Top VC firm a16z now runs an 8-week fellowship program to train storytellers and content creators for its portfolio companies, signaling a strategic shift. Key drivers: - Customer acquisition costs (CAC) have surged 222% over 10 years, with SaaS companies spending $2 to earn $1 in annual revenue. - AI has accelerated product homogenization, shrinking competitive advantages from years to just 3-12 months. - Consumers increasingly trust authentic human voices: 71% distrust AI-heavy brand communication, while 67% pay more for founder-aligned values. Case studies demonstrate the power of founder IP: - Sam Altman’s personal Twitter (4.5M followers) often outperforms OpenAI’s official account, amplifying the company’s narrative and valuation growth. - Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas, with zero marketing budget, grew valuation 133x to $21.2B through transparent, direct user engagement. - Midjourney, with just 10-15 employees, achieved $500M revenue by leveraging founder David Holz’s Discord community interactions. - Even non-founder IP like Duolingo’s brand personality (a “crazy” owl) drove user growth from 37M to 117M MAU. However, founder IP is a double-edged sword—Elon Musk’s influence boosted Grok’s market share but also contributed to a 53% drop in Tesla’s brand value due to controversial statements. The conclusion: Product strength is the foundation (the “1”), but founder IP is the multiplier (the “0”). In an era of rising CAC and AI-driven sameness, a founder’s authentic voice is becoming the most efficient growth lever and durable moat.

marsbit04/02 07:05

In the AI Era of Spending $2 to Earn $1, Founders Who Don't Build an IP Are Being Phased Out

marsbit04/02 07:05

Hyperliquid Strategies CEO bets on HYPE to outperform Bitcoin, Ethereum in Q2 – Details

Hyperliquid's HYPE token significantly outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q1 2026, posting 48% gains while BTC and ETH fell by 25% and 32%, respectively. Hyperliquid Strategies CEO David Schamis expects this trend to continue into Q2, citing growing platform adoption. A key driver has been the surge in non-crypto asset trading (HIP-3) on Hyperliquid, partly due to increased activity during the West Asia crisis. HIP-3's daily open interest surpassed $2 billion, accounting for 38%-48% of total platform activity and contributing significantly to revenue. This revenue funds aggressive HYPE buybacks, which have historically correlated with strong price increases—such as an 86% surge in January and a 72% rally in February-March. Schamis believes that if HIP-3 growth continues and market sentiment improves, the current pullback may present a buying opportunity. HYPE remains a standout asset heading into Q2.

ambcrypto04/02 07:02

Hyperliquid Strategies CEO bets on HYPE to outperform Bitcoin, Ethereum in Q2 – Details

ambcrypto04/02 07:02

Hong Kong Freezes Stablecoin Rollout, Leaving HSBC, Standard Chartered Waiting

Hong Kong has postponed the issuance of its first batch of stablecoin licenses, delaying approvals for major applicants like HSBC and Standard Chartered. The delay, attributed to money laundering concerns, may lead to stricter KYC regulations. This setback affects 36 applicants and follows mainland China's earlier crackdown on stablecoins due to regulatory and illegal activity risks. Despite initial plans to issue a small number of licenses in March, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has not yet granted any approvals. The article also notes similar regulatory delays in South Korea, while Japan and the U.S. have advanced their stablecoin frameworks. The stablecoin market cap remains strong at $316 billion, a new all-time high. Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, down 4% over the week.

bitcoinist04/02 07:01

Hong Kong Freezes Stablecoin Rollout, Leaving HSBC, Standard Chartered Waiting

bitcoinist04/02 07:01

Google's Open-Source Large Model Gemma 4 Imminent Announcement: Parameter Count Quadrupled

Google is set to announce Gemma 4, its next-generation open-source large language model, marking a significant upgrade from the previous Gemma 3 released a year ago. The new model is expected to feature a 120B parameter version—four times larger than its predecessor—while utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture to keep activated parameters at just 15B, enabling local operation on consumer-grade hardware. Gemma 4 is also anticipated to deliver improved context length, reasoning, and complex task performance. The move is seen as part of Google’s strategy to compete in the open-source arena, which has been increasingly influenced by Chinese tech firms. By releasing Gemma 4 months after its flagship closed-source model Gemini 3.0, Google aims to balance commercial interests with developer engagement. The model emphasizes local and offline usability, positioning it as a direct competitor to domestic open-source alternatives. Industry observers note that Gemma 4 raises the bar for open-source models, combining scale and efficiency. Although Google’s primary focus remains on closed-source systems, its technical strength could make Gemma 4 a strong contender in the global open-source ecosystem.

marsbit04/02 06:45

Google's Open-Source Large Model Gemma 4 Imminent Announcement: Parameter Count Quadrupled

marsbit04/02 06:45

Ozak AI Presale Performance Strengthens Expectations for Exchange Listing Activity Following $6.59 Million Raised

Ozak AI's OZ token presale has raised $6.59 million by selling over 1.15 billion tokens, significantly boosting investor expectations for its upcoming public exchange debut. The token price surged from $0.001 in Phase 1 to $0.014 in Phase 7, representing a 14x gain and projecting a potential 71x ROI if it lists at the targeted $1. This momentum is fueled by Ozak AI's technology, including DePIN for data security and partnerships with firms like Openledger. However, thorough research and risk assessment are advised before investing.

TheNewsCrypto04/02 06:40

Ozak AI Presale Performance Strengthens Expectations for Exchange Listing Activity Following $6.59 Million Raised

TheNewsCrypto04/02 06:40

Anthropic Tests "Lobster" Conway: Supports Independent UI, Webhook Activation, and Custom Extension Standards

Anthropic is actively developing "Conway," a persistent agent solution designed to provide Claude with an always-on, independently running intelligent environment. It features a standalone UI instance, operating as a traditional chat interface and more of a dedicated workspace. Conway can directly control browsers, connect to external services, and integrate Claude Code for deeper code execution and task handling. It supports Webhook-based invocation, enabling external services or events to trigger automated workflows. Additionally, Conway will support for extensions through the upcoming CNW ZIP standard, allowing developers to build custom tools, UI tabs, and context handlers, similar to an app store ecosystem. This enhancement aims to transform Claude from a reactive conversational tool into a proactive, multi-step task assistant, positioning it as a strong competitor in the AI agent space and advancing the trend toward always-on AI capabilities.

marsbit04/02 06:29

Anthropic Tests "Lobster" Conway: Supports Independent UI, Webhook Activation, and Custom Extension Standards

marsbit04/02 06:29

Interviewing 10 Dubai Workers: Some Were Asked to Sign 'Life-or-Death Waivers'

The article "Interviews with 10 Dubai Workers: Some Forced to Sign 'Life-or-Death Waivers'" explores the impact of the 2026 Iran-Israel conflict on Dubai's crypto industry and expatriate community. Following missile and drone attacks, Dubai International Airport and Burj Al Arab hotel were hit, causing evacuations and disruptions. While the Dubai Financial Market Real Estate Index fell ~30%, actual property prices dropped only 4-5%. Crypto workers responded diversely: some fled due to safety concerns or family pressure (e.g., Stella, Rebecca), others remained, citing leadership confidence and established lives (e.g., Tiffany), and a few returned under company-mandated "life-or-death waivers" to seize business opportunities. Despite short-term chaos, long-term optimism persists. Experts like Ethan argue Dubai remains irreplaceable as MENA's crypto hub due to its strategic location, English proficiency, crypto-friendly policies, and infrastructure—alternatives like Qatar, Istanbul, or North Africa lack comparable stability or scale. Events like Token2049 were postponed, but the city's role in crypto networking and business development (as Oliver notes) remains vital. Ultimately, many express faith in the UAE's resilience and China’s evacuation assurances, viewing the crisis as a setback rather than a terminal decline for Dubai's crypto ecosystem.

marsbit04/02 06:26

Interviewing 10 Dubai Workers: Some Were Asked to Sign 'Life-or-Death Waivers'

marsbit04/02 06:26

Interviewing 10 Dubai Workers: Some Were Asked to Sign 'Life-or-Death Waivers'

An article titled "Interviewing 10 Dubai Workers: Some Were Asked to Sign 'Life-and-Death Waivers'" explores the impact of the 2026 military conflict between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran on crypto industry workers based in Dubai. Following Iran's retaliatory strikes, which involved over 2,000 missiles and drones, Dubai’s airport and luxury hotels were hit, causing injuries and disruptions. The city’s real estate and financial markets saw significant declines, with the DFM property index dropping about 30%. The crypto community responded in varied ways: some workers fled due to safety concerns and family pressure, others chose to stay, citing leadership confidence and personal commitments, and a few returned to seize business opportunities, sometimes signing risk waivers. Despite the chaos, many believe Dubai remains irreplaceable as a Middle Eastern crypto hub due to its strategic location, business-friendly environment, and lack of alternatives. The Token2049 conference was postponed to 2027, but long-term optimism persists, underpinned by trust in both the UAE’s stability and China’s support for its citizens abroad.

Odaily星球日报04/02 06:22

Interviewing 10 Dubai Workers: Some Were Asked to Sign 'Life-or-Death Waivers'

Odaily星球日报04/02 06:22

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

A crypto super PAC named Fellowship, which claims to have raised over $100 million but has yet to spend any funds, has named Jesse Spiro, Tether’s VP of Regulatory Affairs, as its chairman. This marks the first official public link between Tether and the PAC. Meanwhile, another major crypto PAC, Fairshake—backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z—has amassed $193 million. Combined, the two PACs are directing nearly $300 million toward the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Fellowship, formed in August 2025, had previously drawn speculation over its undisclosed donors and lack of activity. Federal Election Commission records show no reported donations or expenditures as of December 2023. Spiro’s appointment signals a more public role for the group, which plans to soon announce its first candidate endorsements. The move comes amid a legislative standoff in the Senate over the CLARITY Act, which includes contentious provisions on stablecoin yield payments—a key issue for Tether, the issuer of USDT. With critical crypto legislation at stake and the White House’s top digital assets adviser role now vacant, the industry is ramping up political spending to influence regulatory outcomes.

marsbit04/02 06:14

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

marsbit04/02 06:14

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