2026-04-23 Четверг

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Longs Recede, Volatility Weakens, Bitcoin Locks in $60K-$70K Range

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, with early signs of accumulation in spot markets and a reset in derivatives positioning. Overhead supply remains a key structural issue, with approximately 8.4 million BTC held at a loss, concentrated between $80,000 and $126,000. Long-term holder realized losses have risen to around $200 million per day, indicating ongoing distribution. While Coinbase spot flows have turned slightly positive, demand remains tentative. Corporate treasury buying has narrowed significantly, with only one major player continuing consistent accumulation. Perpetual funding rates have reset to neutral, and implied volatility has softened across the term structure. Options skew shows renewed defensive positioning, and negative gamma below the spot price suggests vulnerability to amplified downside moves. The market lacks a clear catalyst and appears to be in a redistribution phase rather than a trending environment, requiring stronger demand or further supply absorption to break out.

marsbit04/02 09:04

Longs Recede, Volatility Weakens, Bitcoin Locks in $60K-$70K Range

marsbit04/02 09:04

The Era of Encryption: The Boundary Between Payment and Investment Is Disappearing

The boundaries between payments and investment are dissolving in the age of programmable money. While payments represent a $2.5 trillion revenue stream driven by essential, daily transactions, investment management generates $850–900 billion from a much smaller, more passive user base. Payments are a universal financial behavior, whereas investing remains a luxury activity for a minority. Historically, these systems operated separately—with distinct infrastructure, products, and user experiences. However, blockchain technology now enables a unified account model: the same balance in a single application can simultaneously serve both payment and investment functions. This means funds can be used for transactions while also earning yield or participating in DeFi protocols, all within the same interface. This convergence allows users to benefit from both high-frequency, low-value payment activity and capital appreciation from investments without transferring between separate systems—a significant shift from traditional finance.

marsbit04/02 09:03

The Era of Encryption: The Boundary Between Payment and Investment Is Disappearing

marsbit04/02 09:03

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

The competition between US-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified, with both companies exchanging sharp public criticisms. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, launched an ad campaign in Washington, D.C., with slogans such as "We don’t do death markets," directly targeting Polymarket’s offshore operations and its controversial contracts related to military conflicts and sensitive events. Kalshi accused Polymarket of being "irresponsible, dangerous, and non-compliant," while Polymarket responded by calling for fact-based discussions and emphasizing its commitment to market integrity. The dispute highlights fundamental differences in their regulatory approaches and comes amid growing scrutiny over insider trading and ethical concerns in the prediction market industry, which has seen combined weekly volumes nearing $6 billion.

marsbit04/02 08:52

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

marsbit04/02 08:52

Hot Interactions Collection | Abstract's New Badge Mission; Noise Beta Version Now Live (April 2nd)

Popular Interaction Roundup: Abstract's New Badge Quest; Noise Beta Now Live (April 2nd) This article highlights three key Web3 projects currently offering interactive opportunities: 1. **Abstract**: A consumer-focused Ethereum L2 developed by Pudgy Penguins' parent company, Igloo Inc. It utilizes ZK technology (like ZKsync) for low-cost, high-speed transactions. Users can participate in "The Flash Trader" event by visiting the rewards portal and completing a swap. The event ends in approximately 6.5 days. 2. **Noise**: An attention market platform where users can trade "long" or "short" contracts on internet trends, brands, or ideas based on social data (e.g., X platform热度). Its Beta version launched on April 1st. Access requires connecting a wallet and a $5 payment to start trading trends. 3. **Miden**: A privacy-focused Ethereum L2 scaling solution using a zero-knowledge rollup. It emphasizes privacy and high throughput by executing transactions locally and submitting only proofs to the chain. Users can interact by installing its specific wallet and completing 11 detailed testnet tasks on its playground. All projects represent significant sectors: consumer L2s, prediction/attention markets, and privacy-centric scaling solutions.

Odaily星球日报04/02 08:43

Hot Interactions Collection | Abstract's New Badge Mission; Noise Beta Version Now Live (April 2nd)

Odaily星球日报04/02 08:43

CertiK Releases Cryptocurrency ATM Fraud Report: Losses Reach $330 Million, AI Scams and Cross-Border Money Laundering Emerge as Major Threats

CertiK's "Skynet Cryptocurrency ATM Fraud Report" reveals that losses from such scams reached $330 million in 2025, a 33% year-on-year increase, making it one of the fastest-growing financial crimes in the U.S. The report highlights that these scams have evolved into a highly organized transnational criminal industry, leveraging social engineering and AI technologies. Cryptocurrency ATMs, with 78% located in the U.S., serve as a rapid channel for fraudsters to transfer funds. Victims, often elderly individuals who account for 86% of the losses, are manipulated via phone calls or messages to deposit cash into these machines. The funds are quickly converted into cryptocurrency and transferred to wallets controlled by criminals, making recovery nearly impossible once the transaction is on the blockchain. AI-driven scams, including voice cloning and deepfake videos, have proven 4.5 times more profitable than traditional methods. Criminal networks use automated scripts and employ "smurfing" tactics to bypass transaction limits. The illicit funds are rapidly laundered through mixing services, cross-chain bridges, and decentralized exchanges, often within minutes. The report emphasizes that the only effective intervention point is at the transaction entry level, before funds are on-chain. It calls for enhanced KYC measures, industry-wide intelligence sharing, real-time risk screening, and stronger cross-border law enforcement cooperation to combat this escalating threat.

marsbit04/02 07:36

CertiK Releases Cryptocurrency ATM Fraud Report: Losses Reach $330 Million, AI Scams and Cross-Border Money Laundering Emerge as Major Threats

marsbit04/02 07:36

Why Bitcoin’s supply imbalance is hinting at more downside before recovery

Bitcoin has been in a bearish trend since October 2025, declining 46% from its all-time high of $126K. Large and mid-sized investors still hold 68% of the BTC supply, indicating that a broader distribution phase and structural market reset have not yet occurred. Short-term holders are likely to sell on any price bounce, as seen in the recent rejection at $76K. The UTXO Profit Count Percent further suggests market weakness, with its 365-day moving average at 87.5%—well above levels seen in previous cycle bottoms. Based on historical post-halving cycles, the market bottom is estimated to occur around late September to early October 2026, implying further potential downside before recovery.

ambcrypto04/02 07:11

Why Bitcoin’s supply imbalance is hinting at more downside before recovery

ambcrypto04/02 07:11

In the AI Era of Spending $2 to Earn $1, Founders Who Don't Build an IP Are Being Phased Out

In the AI era, founders who neglect building a personal IP are being left behind. Top VC firm a16z now runs an 8-week fellowship program to train storytellers and content creators for its portfolio companies, signaling a strategic shift. Key drivers: - Customer acquisition costs (CAC) have surged 222% over 10 years, with SaaS companies spending $2 to earn $1 in annual revenue. - AI has accelerated product homogenization, shrinking competitive advantages from years to just 3-12 months. - Consumers increasingly trust authentic human voices: 71% distrust AI-heavy brand communication, while 67% pay more for founder-aligned values. Case studies demonstrate the power of founder IP: - Sam Altman’s personal Twitter (4.5M followers) often outperforms OpenAI’s official account, amplifying the company’s narrative and valuation growth. - Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas, with zero marketing budget, grew valuation 133x to $21.2B through transparent, direct user engagement. - Midjourney, with just 10-15 employees, achieved $500M revenue by leveraging founder David Holz’s Discord community interactions. - Even non-founder IP like Duolingo’s brand personality (a “crazy” owl) drove user growth from 37M to 117M MAU. However, founder IP is a double-edged sword—Elon Musk’s influence boosted Grok’s market share but also contributed to a 53% drop in Tesla’s brand value due to controversial statements. The conclusion: Product strength is the foundation (the “1”), but founder IP is the multiplier (the “0”). In an era of rising CAC and AI-driven sameness, a founder’s authentic voice is becoming the most efficient growth lever and durable moat.

marsbit04/02 07:05

In the AI Era of Spending $2 to Earn $1, Founders Who Don't Build an IP Are Being Phased Out

marsbit04/02 07:05

Hyperliquid Strategies CEO bets on HYPE to outperform Bitcoin, Ethereum in Q2 – Details

Hyperliquid's HYPE token significantly outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q1 2026, posting 48% gains while BTC and ETH fell by 25% and 32%, respectively. Hyperliquid Strategies CEO David Schamis expects this trend to continue into Q2, citing growing platform adoption. A key driver has been the surge in non-crypto asset trading (HIP-3) on Hyperliquid, partly due to increased activity during the West Asia crisis. HIP-3's daily open interest surpassed $2 billion, accounting for 38%-48% of total platform activity and contributing significantly to revenue. This revenue funds aggressive HYPE buybacks, which have historically correlated with strong price increases—such as an 86% surge in January and a 72% rally in February-March. Schamis believes that if HIP-3 growth continues and market sentiment improves, the current pullback may present a buying opportunity. HYPE remains a standout asset heading into Q2.

ambcrypto04/02 07:02

Hyperliquid Strategies CEO bets on HYPE to outperform Bitcoin, Ethereum in Q2 – Details

ambcrypto04/02 07:02

Hong Kong Freezes Stablecoin Rollout, Leaving HSBC, Standard Chartered Waiting

Hong Kong has postponed the issuance of its first batch of stablecoin licenses, delaying approvals for major applicants like HSBC and Standard Chartered. The delay, attributed to money laundering concerns, may lead to stricter KYC regulations. This setback affects 36 applicants and follows mainland China's earlier crackdown on stablecoins due to regulatory and illegal activity risks. Despite initial plans to issue a small number of licenses in March, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has not yet granted any approvals. The article also notes similar regulatory delays in South Korea, while Japan and the U.S. have advanced their stablecoin frameworks. The stablecoin market cap remains strong at $316 billion, a new all-time high. Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, down 4% over the week.

bitcoinist04/02 07:01

Hong Kong Freezes Stablecoin Rollout, Leaving HSBC, Standard Chartered Waiting

bitcoinist04/02 07:01

Google's Open-Source Large Model Gemma 4 Imminent Announcement: Parameter Count Quadrupled

Google is set to announce Gemma 4, its next-generation open-source large language model, marking a significant upgrade from the previous Gemma 3 released a year ago. The new model is expected to feature a 120B parameter version—four times larger than its predecessor—while utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture to keep activated parameters at just 15B, enabling local operation on consumer-grade hardware. Gemma 4 is also anticipated to deliver improved context length, reasoning, and complex task performance. The move is seen as part of Google’s strategy to compete in the open-source arena, which has been increasingly influenced by Chinese tech firms. By releasing Gemma 4 months after its flagship closed-source model Gemini 3.0, Google aims to balance commercial interests with developer engagement. The model emphasizes local and offline usability, positioning it as a direct competitor to domestic open-source alternatives. Industry observers note that Gemma 4 raises the bar for open-source models, combining scale and efficiency. Although Google’s primary focus remains on closed-source systems, its technical strength could make Gemma 4 a strong contender in the global open-source ecosystem.

marsbit04/02 06:45

Google's Open-Source Large Model Gemma 4 Imminent Announcement: Parameter Count Quadrupled

marsbit04/02 06:45

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